A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study identifies transitions between traffic modes on Cologne motorways.
We combine geometric data analysis and stochastic modeling to describe the collective dynamics of complex systems. As an example we apply this approach to financial data and focus on the non-stationarity of the market correlation structure. We identify the dominating variable and extract its explicit stochastic model. …
Building on previous results on the quadratic helicity in magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) we investigate particular minimum helicity states. Those are eigenfunctions of the curl operator and are shown to constitute solutions of the quasi-stationary incompressible ideal MHD equations. We then show that these states have inde…
In the limit of infinite number of nodes (agents), the Itô-reduced Bouchaud-Mézard network model of economic exchange has a time-independent mean and a steady-state inverse gamma distribution. We show that for a finite number of nodes the mean is actually distributed as a time-dependent lognormal and inverse gamma is q…
Economic integration, globalization and financial crises represent examples of processes whose understanding requires the analysis of the underlying network structure. Of particular interest is establishing whether a real economic network is in a state of (quasi)stationary equilibrium, i.e. characterized by smooth stru…
In this paper, we consider a simple kinetic model of economy involving both exchanges between agents and speculative trading. We show that the kinetic model admits non trivial quasi-stationary states with power law tails of Pareto type. In order to do this we consider a suitable asymptotic limit of the model yielding a…
New method separates market motion from stock correlations.
New method identifies precursors of financial crises in market correlation structures.
We propose a combination of cluster analysis and stochastic process analysis to characterize high-dimensional complex dynamical systems by few dominating variables. As an example, stock market data are analyzed for which the dynamical stability as well as transitions between different stable states are found. This comb…
\begin{abstract} We model individual T2DM patient blood glucose level (BGL) by stochastic process with discrete number of states mainly but not solely governed by medication regimen (e.g. insulin injections). BGL states change otherwise according to various physiological triggers which render a stochastic, statisticall…
We suggest an alternative mathematical model for the massless neutrino. Consider an elastic continuum in 3-dimensional Euclidean space and assume that points of this continuum can experience no displacements, only rotations. This framework is a special case of the so-called Cosserat theory of elasticity. Rotations of p…
The disbalance of Supply and Demand is typically considered as the driving force of the markets. However, the measurement or estimation of Supply and Demand at price different from the execution price is not possible even after the transaction. An approach in which Supply and Demand are always matched, but the rate $I=…
This paper proposes a hierarchical feature extractor for non-stationary streaming time series based on the concept of switching observable Markov chain models. The slow time-scale non-stationary behaviors are considered to be a mixture of quasi-stationary fast time-scale segments that are exhibited by complex dynamical…
The Multi-Armed Bandits (MAB) framework highlights the tension between acquiring new knowledge (Exploration) and leveraging available knowledge (Exploitation). In the classical MAB problem, a decision maker must choose an arm at each time step, upon which she receives a reward. The decision maker's objective is to maxi…
Spectral analysis detects structural changes in financial networks.
This paper aims to provide a simple modelling of speculative bubbles and derive some quantitative properties of its dynamical evolution. Starting from a description of individual speculative behaviours, we build and study a second order Markov process, which after simple transformations can be viewed as a turning two-d…
Framework selects optimal historical data windows for non-stationary learning.
Optimizes deep neural network initialization variance for better performance.
Power quality (PQ) analysis describes the non-pure electric signals that are usually present in electric power systems. The automatic recognition of PQ disturbances can be seen as a pattern recognition problem, in which different types of waveform distortion are differentiated based on their features. Similar to other …
ABS dynamically adjusts batch size based on policy stability, improving RL performance.
Neural-Network Quantum States have been recently introduced as an Ansatz for describing the wave function of quantum many-body systems. We show that there are strong connections between Neural-Network Quantum States in the form of Restricted Boltzmann Machines and some classes of Tensor-Network states in arbitrary dime…
Paper finds coefficients of Catalan states using Θ_A-state expansion.
We propose the application of a high-speed maximum likelihood clustering algorithm to detect temporal financial market states, using correlation matrices estimated from intraday market microstructure features. We first determine the ex-ante intraday temporal cluster configurations to identify market states, and then st…
Associated to every state surface for a knot or link is a state graph, which embeds as a spine of the state surface. A state graph can be decomposed along cut-vertices into graphs with induced planar embeddings. Associated with each such planar graph is a checkerboard surface, and each state surface is a fiber if and o…
This paper tackles belief-state selection in simulators with latent states.
New method for state inference in state-space models with unknown dynamics.
New proof for knot state-sum formula using bijection between states.
New method uses entropy to improve policy gradient exploration.
A new method learns state and proposal dynamics in state-space models using neural networks.
In this letter we borrow from the inference techniques developed for unbounded state-cardinality (nonparametric) variants of the HMM and use them to develop a tuning-parameter free, black-box inference procedure for Explicit-state-duration hidden Markov models (EDHMM). EDHMMs are HMMs that have latent states consisting…
The paper develops a state-space approach to deep Gaussian processes for efficient state estimation.
Method learns CTMC models from steady-state data, predicting unseen states.
This work improves policy optimization by maximizing entropy of state distribution, leading to better exploration.
A new asset allocation model uses Markov states from clustered efficient frontier coefficients.
Bayesian model detects altered neural circuits in MCI patients.
Quantum states can be learned efficiently using gentle measurements.
Proposes a new model for time series that considers smooth transitions between states.
Quantum states associated with subsets of product manifolds are separable.
Defines a universal state sum construction for various TQFTs.
The accurate and interpretable prediction of future events in time-series data often requires the capturing of representative patterns (or referred to as states) underpinning the observed data. To this end, most existing studies focus on the representation and recognition of states, but ignore the changing transitional…
This paper simplifies OPE in large state spaces using state abstractions.
New method finds unseen states for RL, improving performance.
Characterizes optimal-speed quantum state evolution Hamiltonians.
SiBBlInGS discovers interpretable building blocks across states in multi-way data.
DAC-SSM learns domain-agnostic states for better imitation learning.
Studying general quantum many-body systems is one of the major challenges in modern physics because it requires an amount of computational resources that scales exponentially with the size of the system.Simulating the evolution of a state, or even storing its description, rapidly becomes intractable for exact classical…
Protocol learns pure quantum states with minimal disturbance.
An incremental/online state dynamic learning method is proposed for identification of the nonlinear Gaussian state space models. The method embeds the stochastic variational sparse Gaussian process as the probabilistic state dynamic model inside a particle filter framework. Model updating is done at measurement sample …