SUQUAN optimizes quantile normalisation for better downstream analysis.
problem Optimizing target distribution for better downstream analysis.
method Optimizes target distribution jointly with other parameters in the analysis.
result SUQUAN outperforms standard quantile normalisation on various data types.
A new method normalizes EBM training by introducing a learnable parameter.
problem Training energy-based models with maximum likelihood is challenging due to intractable normalisation constants.
method Proposes a self-normalised log-likelihood (SNL) objective that introduces a learnable parameter representing the normalisation constant.
result The SNL objective is a lower bound of the log-likelihood and can be directly optimised using stochastic gradient techniques.
The paper improves spectral clustering by analyzing the asymptotic normalised cut value.
problem No agreed method for tuning scaling parameter or automatically determining cluster number.
method Investigates asymptotic value of normalised cut for increasing samples.
result Provides recommendations for improving spectral clustering methodology.
Batch normalisation doesn't affect variational inference but fails for larger batch sizes.
problem Failure of Monte Carlo Batch Normalisation (MCBN) for capturing epistemic uncertainty in larger batch sizes.
method Investigated MCBN as an approximate inference technique for Bayesian neural networks, showing its limitations and providing insights for improvement.
result For larger batch sizes, MCBN fails to capture epistemic uncertainty, requiring the batch size to be a variational parameter.
Proposes a method to apply conformal prediction to probabilistic time series forecasting models.
problem Obtaining accurate prediction regions for multi-step time series forecasting with probabilistic models.
method Conformalises conditional normalising flows to generate potentially disjoint prediction regions.
result Improves predictive efficiency in time series forecasting with multimodal distributions.
AON improves neural network generalization by making weights approximately orthogonal.
problem Improving generalization of deep neural networks.
method Approximated orthonormal normalisation (AON) technique to make weight vectors approximately orthogonal.
result AON yields promising validation performance compared to orthonormal regularisation.
Study of superintegrable systems linked to affine hypersurfaces.
problem Understanding superintegrable systems through geometric structures.
method Established a correspondence between superintegrable systems and affine hypersurfaces, defining conformal equivalence.
result Identified conformal classes of abundant manifolds with abundant hypersurface immersions.
Study of Coxeter diagrams and Artin-Tits groups, focusing on normalisers and wall intersections.
problem Understanding normalisers of parabolic subgroups in Artin-Tits groups and their connections to Coxeter diagrams.
method Analyzing hyperplane arrangements, Coxeter groups, and wall-and-chamber structures.
result Complexified hyperplane complement is a K(π,1) space for normalisers of parabolic subgroups in finite-type Coxeter diagrams.
New statistics improve kernel independence testing efficiency.
problem Improving efficiency in kernel independence testing.
method Adapting martingale MMD construction to joint independence problem.
result Two new statistics achieve finite-sample consistency with linear per-test cost.
Kernelised flows improve density estimation and generation with fewer parameters.
problem Limited expressiveness of flow-based models due to invertibility constraints.
method Integrates kernels into normalising flows to enhance expressiveness and efficiency.
result Kernelised flows outperform neural network-based flows in parameter efficiency and low-data scenarios.
CIFs replace single bijections with continuous families to avoid topological limitations.
problem Normalising flows struggle with targets with complex topologies.
method Propose Continuously Indexed Flows (CIFs) replacing single bijections with a continuous family.
result CIFs avoid topological limitations and perform better empirically.
Bayesian normalising flows improve conditional density estimation.
problem Complex conditional distributions in various settings.
method Bayesian normalising flows for flexible likelihood modeling.
result State-of-the-art performance on benchmark datasets.
Improved normalising flows using Student's t-distribution for robust training.
problem Training deep probabilistic models with robust statistics.
method Propose Student's t-distribution as a robust alternative to Gaussian in normalising flows.
result Improved robustness and reduced generalization gap with Student's t-distribution.
Method estimates bivariate causal models using normalising flows and variational Gaussian process regression.
problem Lack of explainability in AI models, especially in causal mechanisms.
method Combination of normalising flows for density estimation and variational Gaussian process regression for post-nonlinear models.
result Method better explains cause-effect pairs than simple additive noise models.
Squared families are a new model class derived from linear transformations, offering convenient properties and universal approximation.
problem Developing a new class of probability models that are easier to handle and have useful properties.
method Introducing squared families as families of probability densities obtained by squaring a linear transformation of a statistic, and showing their properties and applications.
result Squared families have convenient properties and can approximate target densities well.
New invariant dominates Jones, Kuperberg, and arrow polynomials.
problem Dominating known knot invariants.
method Picture formalism leading to a new invariant.
result New invariant outperforms Jones, Kuperberg, and arrow polynomials.
Score-based methods fail with isolated components and incorrect mixing proportions.
problem Score-based methods struggle with distributions having isolated components and incorrect mixing proportions.
method Score-based methods, including score matching, are used but fail in the presence of isolated components and incorrect mixing proportions.
result Score-based methods cannot discover isolated components or identify correct mixing proportions.
Adapts linearised Laplace method for deep learning models.
problem Incompatibility of linearised Laplace method with modern deep learning tools.
method Examines and adapts linearised Laplace method for model selection in deep learning.
result Recommendations for better adapting linearised Laplace method to modern deep learning.
RotRNN uses rotations to simplify long sequence modelling.
problem Complex initialisation and normalisation schemes in linear recurrent models.
method RotRNN employs rotation matrices to simplify and normalise linear recurrent models.
result RotRNN achieves competitive performance on long sequence modelling datasets.
Improved spectral convergence bounds for diffusion maps on tori.
problem Weak theoretical error bounds for diffusion maps.
method Spatial Hardy space estimates, PDE spectral stability, Sinkhorn weights.
result Matched pointwise error bounds for spectral data and operator convergence.
Investigates methods to regularize quantile regression for accurate predictions.
problem Improving accuracy and fairness in quantile regression predictions.
method Various regularization techniques including expected pinball loss, monotonicity constraints, and rate constraints.
result Deep lattice networks can maintain non-crossing quantiles and improve calibration and fairness.
A new method avoids quantile crossing in time series forecasting.
problem Quantile crossing in joint quantile regressions.
method Incremental (Spline) Quantile Functions (I(S)QF) with neural network.
result Improves consistency and accuracy in time series forecasting.
New risk measures for quantiles under ambiguity improve risk sharing.
problem Risk optimization under ambiguity using quantiles.
method Introducing Choquet quantiles and Choquet Expected Shortfall.
result Optimal allocations for quantile agents under ambiguity.
In quantitative finance, we often model asset prices as a noisy Ito semimartingale. As this model is not identifiable, approximating by a time-changed Levy process can be useful for generative modelling. We give a new estimate of the normalised volatility or time change in this model, which obtains minimax convergence …
Paper finds robust Λ-quantiles equal to extremal distributions.
problem Investigating robust models for Λ-quantiles with partial loss information. method Extending classical quantiles using Λ-quantiles and applying results from robust quantiles. result Robust Λ-quantiles equal to Λ-quantiles of extremal distributions. SCQRNN prevents quantile crossing and improves computational efficiency.
problem Quantile crossing issue in regression models.
method Integrates ad hoc sorting in training to prevent quantile crossing and enhance computational efficiency.
result SCQRNN achieves faster convergence and non-intersecting quantiles.
Axiomatizes Λ-quantiles, a generalization of quantiles.
problem Found an axiomatization for Λ-quantiles. method Characterized Λ-quantiles using the locality property. result Local changes in distribution do not affect Λ-quantiles. Develops quantile diffusions for risk analysis in continuous time.
problem Stochastic dynamics of quantiles in continuous time.
method Construction of quantile processes through composite maps of distribution and quantile functions.
result Powerful method for interpreting quantile process characteristics in terms of model parameters.
Develops a method to ensure accurate quantile forecasts across multiple levels.
problem Ensuring accurate quantile forecasts at multiple levels, even under distribution shifts.
method Multi-level quantile tracker (MultiQT) wraps around any forecaster to produce calibrated forecasts.
result Guaranteed calibration of quantile forecasts at multiple levels, even against adversarial shifts.
This paper proposes a method to automatically infer the quantile parameter in machine learning.
problem Estimating the quantile parameter in asymmetric loss functions.
method Jointly infers the quantile parameter and function parameters using convexity properties and a gradient boosting algorithm.
result The proposed method can automatically recover the quantile parameter and improve function parameter recovery.
Proposes a method to estimate conditional quantiles using both high-fidelity and low-fidelity data.
problem Difficulty in estimating conditional quantiles with scarce high-fidelity data.
method Two-stage, model-agnostic method using local quantile link and level function estimation.
result The method yields more accurate quantile estimates and tighter prediction intervals.
Sequential quantile estimation refers to incorporating observations into quantile estimates in an incremental fashion thus furnishing an online estimate of one or more quantiles at any given point in time. Sequential quantile estimation is also known as online quantile estimation. This area is relevant to the analysis …
Unique solutions found for a specific flow equation.
problem Finding unique solutions for a specific flow equation.
method Used a uniform bound for the Liouville energy and a natural space-time L2-bound for the time derivative of the solution. result Uniqueness of classical solutions for the normalised two-dimensional Hamilton-Ricci flow.
Bitcoin volatility shows multifractal structure, contradicting rough volatility models.
problem Applying rough volatility models to Bitcoin volatility data.
method Normalised p-variation framework, multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis, log-log moment scaling, wavelet leaders.
result Bitcoin volatility exhibits multifractal structure, violating rough volatility model assumptions.
The paper proposes a method for predicting equity premium using penalized quantile regression.
problem Heteroscedasticity and heavy-tails in equity premium prediction.
method Penalized quantile regression with consistent variable selection across multiple quantiles.
result The proposed method outperforms benchmark methods and reveals interesting predictor relationships.
Improved conformalized quantile regression for adaptive prediction intervals.
problem Lack of adaptiveness in the conformal step of conformalized quantile regression.
method Cluster explanatory variables by permutation importance and apply k conformal steps.
result Improved prediction intervals are more adaptive to heteroscedasticity.
Proposes a deep learning method to ensure non-crossing quantiles in conditional distributions.
problem Non-crossing quantiles issue in deep learning QR models.
method Generic deep learning algorithm enforcing quantile monotonicity.
result Ensures non-crossing quantiles up to machine precision.
Bayesian quantile regression trees improve predictive performance.
problem Quantile regression trees for conditional quantiles are underutilized.
method Bayesian quantile additive regression trees model.
result Shows very good predictive performance in simulations and real data.
Smoothed SGD improves quantile estimation without crossing curves.
problem Estimating quantiles without crossing estimated curves.
method Smoothed SGD algorithm with Bahadur representation and Gaussian approximation.
result Smoothed SGD provides non-asymptotic tail probability bounds and a Gaussian approximation for quantile estimates.
Private estimation of many quantiles using differential privacy.
problem Estimating quantiles of a distribution privately.
method Two approaches: 1) Private estimation of empirical quantiles, 2) Uniform density estimation.
result There is a tradeoff between estimating quantiles at specific points and uniformly estimating the quantile function.
Bayesian method improves quantile estimation and subset selection.
problem Estimating specific percentiles of the response distribution.
method Bayesian decision analysis perspective, optimal point estimates, interpretable uncertainty quantification, scalable subset selection.
result Substantial gains in quantile estimation accuracy, inference, and variable selection over competitors.
New quantile methods improve uncertainty quantification across various models.
problem Improper quantile loss limits model flexibility and accuracy.
method Developed new quantile methods that optimize for calibration, sharpness, and centered intervals.
result Improved conditional quantiles and better uncertainty quantification across diverse models.
Paper examines quantile dependence and volatility forecasting between US and international markets.
problem Improving volatility forecasting between international stock markets.
method Cross-quantilogram analysis and quantile-augmented volatility model.
result Quantile dependence and directional predictability between US and international markets improve volatility forecasting.
This paper analyzes quantiles of heavy-tailed distributions, separating projection direction and quantile threshold effects.
problem Analyzing quantiles of heavy-tailed distributions with estimated parameters.
method Introduces a Q-Q orthogonality formulation to separate projection-direction and quantile-threshold effects.
result Decomposes the difference between empirical and population quantiles into three terms.
New algorithm STCV improves sparse model discovery from normalised data.
problem Distortion of sparse model discovery due to data scaling.
method STCV, a novel sparse regression algorithm robust to data scaling.
result STCV outperforms standard methods on normalised, noisy datasets.
ConquerNet smooths quantile regression for deep learning with minimax guarantees.
problem Optimization challenges in quantile regression for deep models.
method ConquerNet uses convolution-smoothed quantile ReLU neural networks.
result ConquerNet provides minimax guarantees and outperforms standard quantile neural networks.
Improved quantile estimation model for VaR.
problem Improving quantile estimation under distribution estimation.
method Develops a compensatory model with a penalty term to control convergence error.
result Significant improvement in VaR performance.
We develop quantile regression models in order to derive risk margin and to evaluate capital in non-life insurance applications. By utilizing the entire range of conditional quantile functions, especially higher quantile levels, we detail how quantile regression is capable of providing an accurate estimation of risk ma…