arXiv research

Quant strategies lost during market selloff.

Quant 4.0 uses AI to automate, explain, and incorporate knowledge in investment.

Quant firms manipulate stock markets overnight and intraday.

Alpha-GPT mines new trading signals with human-AI interaction.

We discuss when and why custom multi-factor risk models are warranted and give source code for computing some risk factors. Pension/mutual funds do not require customization but standardization. However, using standardized risk models in quant trading with much shorter holding horizons is suboptimal: 1) longer horizon …

Survey of AI in quant finance, from deep learning to LLMs.

Modeling financial time series by stochastic processes is a challenging task and a central area of research in financial mathematics. As an alternative, we introduce Quant GANs, a data-driven model which is inspired by the recent success of generative adversarial networks (GANs). Quant GANs consist of a generator and d…

Degree-Quant improves GNN efficiency by quantizing them without losing accuracy.

We give an explicit algorithm and source code for extracting expected returns for stocks from expected returns for alphas. Our algorithm altogether bypasses combining alphas with weights into "alpha combos". Simply put, we have developed a new method for trading alphas which does not involve combining them. This yields…

PPO optimizes LLM-generated alpha weights for better trading performance.

We give a simple explicit algorithm for building multi-factor risk models. It dramatically reduces the number of or altogether eliminates the risk factors for which the factor covariance matrix needs to be computed. This is achieved via a nested "Russian-doll" embedding: the factor covariance matrix itself is modeled v…

Survey of large language models in financial prediction and trading.

Study uses LLMs to categorize financial tweets, revealing useful sentiment signals.

A new method corrects bias in machine learning for trading by filtering out non-executable prices.

In a recent comment (Johansen A 2003 An alternative view, Quant. Finance 3: C6-C7, cond-mat/0302141), Anders Johansen has criticized our methodology and has questioned several of our results published in [Sornette D and Zhou W-X 2002 The US 2000-2002 market descent: how much longer and deeper? Quant. Finance 2: 468-81,…

Framework uses LLMs to automate strategy finding in quantitative finance.

Study uses machine learning to optimize stock trading strategies.

For the eight-dimensional Riemannian manifold comprised by the three-level quantum systems endowed with the Bures metric, we numerically approximate the integrals over the manifold of several functions of the curvature and of its (anti-)self-dual parts. The motivation for pursuing this research is to elaborate upon the…

Paper uses LLMs to analyze annual reports for stock investment, improving efficiency.

Study finds long-range dependence in financial markets, but deep generative models struggle to replicate it.

Study confirms the square-root law in price impact across Tokyo stocks.

RD-Agent(Q) automates quantitative finance research and development.

It has been shown that non-stabilizer eigenstates of permutation gates are appropriate for allowing $d$-dimensional universal quantum computing (uqc) based on minimal informationally complete POVMs. The relevant quantum gates may be built from subgroups of finite index of the modular group $Γ=PSL(2,\mathbb{Z})$ [M. Pla…

Quantitative model predicts Sri Lankan stock market using NLP, clustering, and time-series forecasting.

The rough Bergomi model, introduced by Bayer, Friz and Gatheral [Quant. Finance 16(6), 887-904, 2016], is one of the recent rough volatility models that are consistent with the stylised fact of implied volatility surfaces being essentially time-invariant, and are able to capture the term structure of skew observed in e…

Improved option pricing for SABR model using Gauss-Hermite quadrature.

The geometry of cosets in the subgroups H of the two-generator free group G =\textless{} a, b \textgreater{} nicely fits, via Grothendieck's dessins d'enfants, the geometry of commutation for quantum observables. Dessins stabilize point-line incidence geometries that reflect the commutation of (generalized) Pauli opera…

Extends ONNX for quantized neural networks with new formats and operators.

In this introductory paper, we discuss how quantitative finance problems under some common risk factor dynamics for some common instruments and approaches can be formulated as time-continuous or time-discrete forward-backward stochastic differential equations (FBSDE) final-value or control problems, how these final val…

The quantitative aspirations of economists and financial analysts have for many years been based on the belief that it should be possible to build models of economic systems - and financial markets in particular - that are as predictive as those in physics. While this perspective has led to a number of important breakt…

This study proposes an equal-weight portfolio strategy to reduce risk compared to traditional ETFs.

Because of their tractability and their natural interpretations in term of market quantities, Hawkes processes are nowadays widely used in high-frequency finance. However, in practice, the statistical estimation results seem to show that very often, only nearly unstable Hawkes processes are able to fit the data properl…

Study provides LDP for non self-similar stochastic volatility models.

We introduce a simulation scheme for Brownian semistationary processes, which is based on discretizing the stochastic integral representation of the process in the time domain. We assume that the kernel function of the process is regularly varying at zero. The novel feature of the scheme is to approximate the kernel fu…

Modeling joint log-volatility dynamics with multivariate fractional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process.

Recently ({\em Class. Quant. Grav.} {\bf 20} 625-664) the concept of {\em causal mapping} between spacetimes --essentially equivalent in this context to the {\em chronological map} one in abstract chronological spaces--, and the related notion of {\em causal structure}, have been introduced as new tools to study causal…

We fully develop the concept of causal symmetry introduced in Class. Quant. Grav. 20 (2003) L139. A causal symmetry is a transformation of a Lorentzian manifold (V,g) which maps every future-directed vector onto a future-directed vector. We prove that the set of all causal symmetries is not a group under the usual comp…

This paper examines how regional trade agreements affect global trade relationships.

It is known that Heston's stochastic volatility model exhibits moment explosion, and that the critical moment $s_+$ can be obtained by solving (numerically) a simple equation. This yields a leading order expansion for the implied volatility at large strikes: $σ_{BS}( k,T)^{2}T\sim Ψ(s_+-1) \times k$ (Roger Lee's moment…

Paper predicts international trade flows using machine learning and factorization models.

Traders in a stock market exchange stock shares and form a stock trading network. Trades at different positions of the stock trading network may contain different information. We construct stock trading networks based on the limit order book data and classify traders into $k$ classes using the $k$-shell decomposition m…

Analysis shows preference for Chinese yuan in global trade network.

Model predicts trading strategies based on latent demand and price impact.

Here, we present the World Trade Atlas 1870-2013, a collection of annual world trade maps in which distance combines economic size and the different dimensions that affect international trade beyond mere geography. Trade distances, which are based on a gravity model predicting the existence of significant trade channel…

A dynamic herding model with interactions of trading volumes is introduced. At time $t$, an agent trades with a probability, which depends on the ratio of the total trading volume at time $t-1$ to its own trading volume at its last trade. The price return is determined by the volume imbalance and number of trades. The …

This paper conducts an empirically study on the trade package composed of a sequence of consecutive purchases or sales of 23 stocks in Chinese stock market. We investigate the probability distributions of the execution time, the number of trades and the total trading volume of trade packages, and analyze the possible s…

Automated trading system with preprocessing and reinforcement learning.

The paper limits the profitability of technical trading rules and finds they are not better than random trading.