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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,742 papers · 148 categories

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48 results for public health forecasting

Study finds macroeconomic indicators predict health workforce and infrastructure measures.

problem Evaluating the predictive value of macroeconomic indicators for public health targets.
method Examined multiple forecasting approaches including neural networks, generalized additive models, random forests, and time series models with exogenous indicators.
result Macroeconomic indicators provide consistent and reproducible predictive signals for health workforce and infrastructure measures, but less so for other targets.

MMformer improves forecasting of environmental time series data.

problem Accurately forecasting environmental change trends for policy-making.
method Meta-learning MTS model combining self-attention and adaptive transferable multi-head attention.
result MMformer outperforms other models in air quality and climate datasets, reducing prediction errors by 50% in MSE and 20% in MAE.

Deep models forecast epidemics with uncertainty quantification.

problem Accurate probabilistic forecasting of epidemics is challenging due to nonlinear temporal dependencies and spatial interactions.
method Deep spatiotemporal engression methods with geometric ergodicity and asymptotic stationarity.
result Proposed methods outperform benchmarks in point and probabilistic forecasting.

Study improves prediction of UK road accidents' severity using AI.

problem Improving prediction of UK road traffic accident severity.
method Combination of machine learning, econometric, and statistical methods on historical data.
result XGBoost model with RMSE of 0.176 and MAE of 0.087 outperforms naive forecasting.

This paper analyzes air pollution trends in Rwanda using low-cost sensors and machine learning.

problem Lack of reliable air pollution data in Rwanda due to high costs of equipment.
method Analysis of existing data and development of forecasting models using low-cost sensors and machine learning.
result Proposes forecasting models for air pollution data collected by low-cost sensors.

Model predicts short-term Amazon rainforest fires with high accuracy.

problem Accurate short-term forecasting of Amazon rainforest fires is challenging.
method Used Seasonal and Trend decomposition based on Loess combined with multi-month-ahead load forecasting algorithms.
result Proposed decomposition-ensemble models provide more accurate forecasts than other models.

Italy and the Eurozone are heading in the year 2012 into a financial depression of unprecedented magnitude, with a forthcoming multitude of often contradictory public economic and financial stability emergency interventions whose ultimate endogenous and exogenous effects on public and private health spending and on the…

2012-07-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Flusion combines multiple data sources to improve flu forecasts.

problem Accurate flu predictions to improve public health actions.
method Ensemble model combining gradient boosting quantile regression and Bayesian autoregressive models.
result Flusion was the top-performing model in the CDC's influenza prediction challenge.

Statistical models outperform mechanistic models in short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.

problem Comparing accuracy of mechanistic vs statistical models for short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
method Empirical comparison of forecasts from mechanistic and statistical models using daily incidence data from six US states.
result Statistical models are at least as accurate as mechanistic models and better capture volatility.

Enhanced Zika spread forecasting using topological data analysis.

problem Challenging prediction of Zika virus spread due to nonlinear spatio-temporal dependency and lack of historical records.
method Integrates topological data analysis, specifically persistent homology, into predictive machine learning models.
result Ensemble forecasting improves Zika spread predictions in Brazil.

Study analyzes misinformation on social media during COVID-19.

problem Misinformation spreads on social media during the COVID-19 pandemic, affecting public health adherence.
method Analysis of model-labeled data, random forest classifier, sentiment analysis.
result Misinformation tweets show more negative sentiment and evolve over time, incorporating details from unrelated theories.

The early detection of infectious disease outbreaks is a crucial task to protect population health. To this end, public health surveillance systems have been established to systematically collect and analyse infectious disease data. A variety of statistical tools are available, which detect potential outbreaks as abber…

2019-02-06abs ↗pdf ↗

Deep learning predicts employment changes and industry health.

problem Forecasting short-term employment changes and assessing long-term industry health.
method LSTNet, a multi-scale deep learning model, processes multivariate time series data.
result LSTNet outperforms baseline models in most sectors, especially stable ones.

GraphSVR forecasts urban air pollution robustly across stations and seasons.

problem Nonlinear, nonstationary, spatiotemporally dependent urban air pollution forecasting challenges.
method Combines graph convolutional learning and support vector regression.
result GraphSVR improves predictive accuracy and maintains stable performance across seasons and outlier-prone episodes.

Interpretable additive models outperform complex DL and hybrid pipelines for air quality forecasting.

problem Accurate forecasting of urban air pollution for public health and policy guidance.
method Investigated lightweight additive models (FBP, NP) vs. deep learning and hybrid pipelines on Beijing PM2.5 and PM10 data.
result Facebook Prophet consistently outperformed NeuralProphet and traditional models, achieving high R2R^2 values.

This paper analyzes forecasting models for COVID-19 cases and deaths.

problem Reliable forecasting of COVID-19 cases and deaths is crucial for managing the disease.
method Quantitative analysis of forecasting models across different regions in the US, evaluating model selection, hyperparameter tuning, and training time.
result Model selection is the most influential factor in forecasting performance.

Study uses machine learning to analyze Twitter sentiments about COVID-19.

problem Examining public concerns and sentiments about COVID-19 from Twitter.
method Machine learning (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) to identify topics and sentiments.
result Identified 13 topics and categorized into five themes, revealing dominant fears and mixed feelings.

Study predicts coastal water quality using machine learning, identifying salinity as key factor.

problem Predicting and managing coastal water quality for public health and tourism.
method Machine learning models (Catboost, Xgboost, Random Forests, Support Vector Regression, Artificial Neural Networks) trained on environmental data.
result Catboost algorithm performed best, with R² values of 0.71 and 0.68 for E. Coli and enterococci predictions.

Enhanced visibility forecasts using CAMS data improve accuracy.

problem Improving the accuracy of visibility predictions in weather forecasts.
method Statistical post-processing with historical observations and CAMS forecasts.
result Post-processed forecasts with CAMS data are substantially superior to raw and climatological predictions.

TMLE improves unbiased estimation in public health studies.

problem Improving unbiased estimation in observational studies.
method Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimation (TMLE) integrates machine learning and statistical theory.
result TMLE has been adopted by researchers worldwide, especially outside the US.

Respiratory infections and chronic respiratory diseases impose a heavy health burden worldwide. Coughing is one of the most common symptoms of many such infections, and can be indicative of flare-ups of chronic respiratory diseases. Whether at a clinical or public health level, the capacity to identify bouts of coughin…

2019-04-28abs ↗pdf ↗

CAST predicts distribution-valued time series by stabilizing and transporting simplex-supported successors.

problem Forecasting distribution-valued time series with structural failure modes.
method CAST (Causal Anchored Simplex Transport) uses successors retrieved from causal context, stabilized with a persistence anchor, and locally transported on ordered supports.
result CAST outperforms baselines on eleven public and simulated benchmarks, achieving best average rank on both one-step KL and autoregressive rollout JSD.

Chagas disease is a neglected disease, and information about its geographical spread is very scarse. We analyze here mobility and calling patterns in order to identify potential risk zones for the disease, by using public health information and mobile phone records. Geolocalized call records are rich in social and mobi…

2018-08-09abs ↗pdf ↗