A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
The author suggests using non-Euclidean geometry for psychometric models.
A new model of learning corrects for chance to improve learning outcomes.
IPGP framework improves psychological assessment by integrating shared and unique traits.
Study integrates causal inference and temporal complexity measures to analyze mental health symptoms.
The Internet and, in particular, Online Social Networks have changed the way that terrorist and extremist groups can influence and radicalise individuals. Recent reports show that the mode of operation of these groups starts by exposing a wide audience to extremist material online, before migrating them to less open on…
AI models assess psychological risks in currency trading.
The book explores essential stats and psychology for quantitative trading.
The cognitive framework of conceptual spaces bridges the gap between symbolic and subsymbolic AI by proposing an intermediate conceptual layer where knowledge is represented geometrically. There are two main approaches for obtaining the dimensions of this conceptual similarity space: using similarity ratings from psych…
New model explains price dynamics of Bitcoin with psychological factors.
The paper interprets financial markets as crowds during booms and busts.
Paper uses inverse optimization to measure risk preference from investment portfolios.
New framework for forecasting psychological processes from ILD.
Study uses AI to simulate stock market behavior, revealing how trader psychology affects market stability.
Following a Geometrical Brownian Motion extension into an Irrational Fractional Brownian Motion model, we re-examine agent behaviour reacting to time dependent news on the log-returns thereby modifying a financial market evolution. We specifically discuss the role of financial news or economic information positive or n…
Paper reviews intrinsic motivations and their role in open-ended learning.
Dual Variable Learning Rates improve neural network training efficiency.
Multiple Sclerosis is a degenerative condition of the central nervous system that affects nearly 2.5 million of individuals in terms of their physical, cognitive, psychological and social capabilities. Researchers are currently investigating on the use of patient reported outcome measures for the assessment of impact a…
PsychFM predicts individual gambling choices using psychological and machine learning models.
Many modern Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems make use of data embeddings, particularly in the domain of Natural Language Processing (NLP). These embeddings are learnt from data that has been gathered "from the wild" and have been found to contain unwanted biases. In this paper we make three contributions towards me…
Deep neural networks (DNNs) have achieved unprecedented performance on a wide range of complex tasks, rapidly outpacing our understanding of the nature of their solutions. This has caused a recent surge of interest in methods for rendering modern neural systems more interpretable. In this work, we propose to address th…
Method learns behavioral states from wearable sensor data.
Over the last decade there has been increasing concern about the biases embodied in traditional evaluation methods for Natural Language Processing/Learning, particularly methods borrowed from Information Retrieval. Without knowledge of the Bias and Prevalence of the contingency being tested, or equivalently the expecta…
This paper focuses on the problem of explaining predictions of psychological attributes such as attractiveness, happiness, confidence and intelligence from face photographs using deep neural networks. Since psychological attribute datasets typically suffer from small sample sizes, we apply transfer learning with two ba…
The diagnosis of Alzheimer's disease (AD) in routine clinical practice is most commonly based on subjective clinical interpretations. Quantitative electroencephalography (QEEG) measures have been shown to reflect neurodegenerative processes in AD and might qualify as affordable and thereby widely available markers to f…
In high dimensional settings, density estimation algorithms rely crucially on their inductive bias. Despite recent empirical success, the inductive bias of deep generative models is not well understood. In this paper we propose a framework to systematically investigate bias and generalization in deep generative models …
Model predicts increased social unrest during COVID-19 using social media data.
This volume is a collection of contributions from the 5th Workshop on Machine Learning and Interpretation in Neuroimaging (MLINI) at the Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2015) conference. Modern multivariate statistical methods developed in the rapidly growing field of machine learning are being increasingly…
New pipeline for causal research in psychology and social sciences.
The simplest field theory description of the multivariate statistics of forward rate variations over time and maturities, involves a quadratic action containing a gradient squared rigidity term. However, this choice leads to a spurious kink (infinite curvature) of the normalized correlation function for coinciding matu…
Paper identifies latent factors from noisy measurements using tensor decomposition.
Defines Learning Analytics' foundational structure and scope.
This paper discusses an alternative explanation for the empirical findings contradicting the positive relationship between risk (variance) and reward (expected return). We show that these contradicting results might be due to the false definition of risk-perception, which we correct by introducing Expected Downside Ris…
In a variety of disciplines such as social sciences, psychology, medicine and economics, the recorded data are considered to be noisy measurements of latent variables connected by some causal structure. This corresponds to a family of graphical models known as the structural equation model with latent variables. While …
In a variety of disciplines such as social sciences, psychology, medicine and economics, the recorded data are considered to be noisy measurements of latent variables connected by some causal structure. This corresponds to a family of graphical models known as the structural equation model with latent variables. While …
Technology and collaboration enable dramatic increases in the size of psychological and psychiatric data collections, but finding structure in these large data sets with many collected variables is challenging. Decision tree ensembles like random forests (Strobl, Malley, and Tutz, 2009) are a useful tool for finding st…
Typical neural networks with external memory do not effectively separate capacity for episodic and working memory as is required for reasoning in humans. Applying knowledge gained from psychological studies, we designed a new model called Differentiable Working Memory (DWM) in order to specifically emulate human workin…
The paper analyzes auction theory and its impact on buyer demographics.
We provide a mathematical definition of fragility and antifragility as negative or positive sensitivity to a semi-measure of dispersion and volatility (a variant of negative or positive "vega") and examine the link to nonlinear effects. We integrate model error (and biases) into the fragile or antifragile context. Unli…
We investigate a class of binary choice models with social interactions. We propose a unifying perspective that integrates economic models using a utility function and psychological models using an impact function. A general approach for analyzing the equilibrium structure of these models within mean-field approximatio…
Behavioral Finance has become a challenge to the scientific community. Based on the assumption that behavioral aspects of investors may explain some features of the Stock Market, we propose an agent based model to study quantitatively this relationship. In order to approximate the simulated market to the complexity of …
In this article, we established a stock market model based on agents' investing mentality. The agents decide whether to purchase the shares at the probability, according to their anticipation of the market's behaviors. The expectation of the amount of shares they want to buy is directly proportional to the value of ass…
We compare the acquisition of knowledge in humans and machines. Research from the field of developmental psychology indicates, that human-employed hypothesis are initially guided by simple rules, before evolving into more complex theories. This observation is shared across many tasks and domains. We investigate whether…
Experiment shows cognitive biases impact human-AI collaboration, highlighting the need for diverse evaluator samples.
The paper clarifies conditions for using benchmark scores in machine learning.
We describe an exercise of using Big Data to predict the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, a widely used indicator of the state of confidence in the US economy. We carry out the exercise from a pure ex ante perspective. We use the methodology of algorithmic text analysis of an archive of brokers' reports over the peri…
An efficient algorithm selects the correct number of latent dimensions in multidimensional probit models.
Theoretical understanding of deep learning is one of the most important tasks facing the statistics and machine learning communities. While deep neural networks (DNNs) originated as engineering methods and models of biological networks in neuroscience and psychology, they have quickly become a centerpiece of the machin…
The cognitive framework of conceptual spaces proposes to represent concepts as regions in psychological similarity spaces. These similarity spaces are typically obtained through multidimensional scaling (MDS), which converts human dissimilarity ratings for a fixed set of stimuli into a spatial representation. One can d…