Model shows overnight interbank loans can lead to bank defaults without external shocks.
problem Systemic risk in overnight interbank market.
method Dynamic model of interbank loans and prudential requirements.
result Intrasystem cash fluctuations can cause systemic defaults.
Smart Close-out Netting aims to automate close-out netting processes.
problem Inefficiencies in close-out netting processes for financial institutions.
method Standardisation and automation of legal and regulatory processes using a data-driven framework and controlled natural language.
result Standardisation and automation can improve close-out netting processes for prudentially regulated financial institutions.
In order to adapt to the liberalization of the financial sphere started in the Eighties, marked in particular by the end of the framing of credit, the disappearance of the various forms of protection of the State whose profited the banks, and the privatization of the near total of the establishments in Europe, the bank…
New eco-systemic prudential policies aim to finance green companies, reducing systemic financial risk.
problem Insufficient financing for green companies despite available savings and monetary management.
method Reorient corporate accounting towards socio-environmental solvency, facilitating access with public guarantees.
result Green financing increases, reducing systemic financial risk and promoting less leveraged investments.
Paper proposes a new measure for systemic credit concentration risk.
problem Systemic credit concentration risk not fully captured by single institution measures.
method Network model to describe overlapping portfolios and quantify systemic risk.
result Network metric quantifies systemic risk not reflected in single portfolio measures.
For credit risk management purposes in general, and for allocation of regulatory capital by banks in particular (Basel II), numerical assessments of the credit-worthiness of borrowers are indispensable. These assessments are expressed in terms of probabilities of default (PD) that should incorporate a certain degree of…
Optimizes retirement income with MBGs and neural networks for longevity risk.
problem Maximizing lifetime withdrawals while managing longevity risk.
method Neural-network optimization under stochastic mortality.
result International diversification and longevity pooling improve retirement outcomes.
Novel method for multiclass ROC curves using multidimensional Gini index.
problem Multiclass performance evaluation, especially for imbalanced datasets.
method Extends ROC curve methodology to multiclass settings using multidimensional Gini index.
result Validated through case studies in health care and finance.
Model assesses how supply chain disruptions affect financial stability.
problem Systemic risk in production networks and its financial implications.
method Data-driven econo-financial stress-testing framework combining supply chain and interbank networks.
result Increase of up to 28% in financial systemic risk due to production network contagion.
Study how firm liquidation regimes affect shareholder value and stability.
problem Balancing shareholder value and financial stability during firm liquidation.
method Modelled forced liquidation in reduced form, solved singular stochastic control problem.
result Combining distress regions below and above ruin threshold improves both shareholder value and firm survival.
The Basel II internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to capital adequacy for credit risk implements an asymptotic single risk factor (ASRF) model. Measurements from the ASRF model of the prevailing state of Australia's economy and the level of capitalisation of its banking sector find general agreement with macroeconomic…
Modeling liquidity shocks in interbank markets to assess systemic risk.
problem Systemic risk in interbank lending markets due to liquidity shocks.
method Developed an EDB model based on compartment models used in epidemics.
result Interbank networks were highly susceptible to liquidity contagion at the start of the financial crisis.
The Basel II internal ratings-based (IRB) approach to capital adequacy for credit risk plays an important role in protecting the Australian banking sector against insolvency. We outline the mathematical foundations of regulatory capital for credit risk, and extend the model specification of the IRB approach to a more g…
Paper proposes real-time risk metrics for stablecoin protocols.
problem Lack of risk management frameworks for stablecoins.
method Developed two risk metrics: capitalization and liquidity.
result Demonstrated practical benefits of real-time on-chain data.
New risk index measures insolvency risk using fractal geometry of balance sheets.
problem Measuring insolvency risk in financial firms.
method Developed a symmetrical, proportional, and scale-invariant Firm Insolvency Risk Index (FIRI) based on fractal geometry of balance sheets.
result The fractal index can differentiate between asset risk and is bounded to a risk thermometer.
SwiGAN generates drought scenarios for climate risk management.
problem Natural catastrophes and droughts increase insurance costs.
method Conditional GANs for generating spatio-temporal SWI maps.
result Simulates drought patterns up to 2050 for French regions.
Model predicts Mozambique bank failures, aiding risk management.
problem Lack of bankruptcy prediction model in Mozambique banking sector.
method Linear Discriminant Analysis method, using financial indicators.
result Model accurately predicted 84% of bank failures 1 year before Central Bank intervention.
The study provides a practical strategy for pricing and hedging equity-release mortgages guarantees.
problem Pricing and hedging the No-Negative-Equity-Guarantee in incomplete markets.
method Discrete-time model, Excess-of-Loss reinsurance, numerical illustrations.
result Superhedge cost decreases with more lives in the portfolio, making it more realistic.
IDA makes DFMM's asset tradeable, enhancing cross-chain finance efficiency.
problem Making DFMM's asset tradeable to improve cross-chain finance efficiency.
method Introducing IDA as a tradeable asset, leveraging DFMM's robust liquidity and dynamic AMM.
result IDA enhances cross-chain finance efficiency through tradeable asset and dynamic AMM.
Unified framework maps financial market dynamics using TE and KM, revealing directional information flow.
problem Challenges in traditional correlation analysis of financial markets, especially during crises.
method Combines Transfer Entropy (TE) and Kramers-Moyal (KM) expansion to analyze dynamic interactions among major indices.
result Increased directional information flow during crises, highlighting gold-dollar and oil-equity linkages.
This paper models and evaluates contagion and stabilisation in interconnected financial markets.
problem Understanding and managing contagion and resilience in multilayer financial networks.
method Formulates an interconnected multiplex structure, models contagion mechanism, and designs minimum-cost stabilisation strategies.
result Empirically validated minimum-cost stabilisation strategies for multichannel contagion containment.
Automated test model creation from semi-structured requirements.
problem Lack of automated solution for test model creation from requirements.
method Machine Learning for semi-structured requirement detection and rule-based translation.
result 86% time savings with no loss of quality.
This letter assesses model risk in credit capital requirements and finds substantial tail risk.
problem Uncertainty in the probability of default and loss-given-default parameters in credit capital requirements.
method Models estimation risk in a simple way, analyzing two datasets and testing parameter dependency.
result Parameter dependency significantly increases tail risk in capital requirements, requiring substantial increases in regulatory capital.
Study introduces new methods to estimate equity and liability required rates of return.
problem Estimating the required rates of return for equity and liabilities of companies.
method Used maximum likelihood, Bayesian, Kalman filtering, and market value evaluation methods.
result The new methods can accurately estimate the required rates of return.
ELICA helps analysts understand unfamiliar domains by extracting relevant terms.
problem Communication barriers between analysts and stakeholders in unfamiliar domains.
method ELICA uses WFSTs to dynamically extract and label requirements-relevant knowledge from text and non-linguistic cues.
result ELICA supports analysts in understanding and eliciting requirements from unfamiliar domains.
This work improves SGD convergence by adaptively adjusting batch sizes.
problem High variance in gradient estimates with small batch sizes.
method Adaptive batch size adjustment based on model training loss.
result Adaptive batch size method requires fewer model updates with same computation.
Study introduces new methods to estimate stock return rates.
problem Estimating the required rate of return for stocks and private companies.
method Maximum likelihood, Bayesian, and Kalman filtering methods applied to historical data.
result Suggested methods can accurately estimate the required rate of return.
Defines market-consistent value of insurance liabilities under capital requirements.
problem Value of insurance liabilities subject to repeated capital requirements.
method Optimal stopping problems and backward recursion to compute value.
result Defines the value of insurance liabilities as no-arbitrage price optimally stopped.
Quantum advantage in derivative pricing requires 8k qubits and 54M T-depth.
problem Quantum advantage in pricing derivatives.
method Re-parameterization method combining pre-trained variational circuits and fault-tolerant quantum computing.
result Benchmark use cases require 8k logical qubits and a T-depth of 54 million.
Paper develops a model to assess capital requirement for demographic risk using stochastic methods.
problem Quantifying capital requirement for demographic risk in life insurance contracts.
method Stochastic model extending local GAAP to Solvency II framework, proving market consistency.
result Model highlights main drivers of capital requirement evaluation, comparing to GAAP.
Key to the imposition of appropriate minimum capital requirements on a daily basis requires accurate volatility estimation. Here, measures are presented based on discrete estimation of aggregated high frequency UK futures realisations underpinned by a continuous time framework. Squared and absolute returns are incorpor…
A Nash game theory approach allocates capital requirements among financial institutions.
problem Allocating systemic risk measures among financial institutions.
method Proposes a Nash allocation rule inspired by game theory.
result Provides sufficient conditions for the existence and uniqueness of Nash allocation rules.
Study on risk sharing in capital requirements for diverse security markets.
problem Risk sharing for capital adequacy tests in heterogeneous security markets.
method Analyzes conditions for a representative agent, studies polyhedral and distribution-based constraints, proves existence of optimal allocations and equilibria.
result Existence of optimal risk allocations and equilibria under different capital adequacy constraints.
This paper provides a framework for modeling the financial system with multiple illiquid assets when liquidation of illiquid assets is caused by failure to meet a leverage requirement. This extends the network model of Cifuentes, Shin & Ferrucci (2005) which incorporates a single asset with fire sales and capital adequ…
In this paper the dependence of wealth distribution and the velocity of money on the required reserve ratio is examined based on a random transfer model of money and computer simulations. A fractional reserve banking system is introduced to the model where money creation can be achieved by bank loans and the monetary a…
Financial institutions are currently required to meet more stringent capital requirements than they were before the recent financial crisis; in particular, the capital requirement for a large bank's trading book under the Basel 2.5 Accord more than doubles that under the Basel II Accord. The significant increase in cap…
Bayes classifier cannot be learned from noisy labels without knowing noise distribution.
problem Learning a Bayes classifier from noisy labels when the noise distribution is unknown.
method Demonstrates the identifiability issues and proposes a simple algorithm for learning the Bayes decision rule.
result The Bayes decision rule is generally unidentified and cannot be learned without knowing the noise distribution.
New method improves deep RL efficiency by adaptively setting accuracy requirements.
problem Improving efficiency in deep reinforcement learning.
method Accuracy-based curriculum learning using adaptive selection of accuracy requirements.
result Adaptive accuracy requirements lead to better learning efficiency than random selection.
Boosting combines weak classifiers to form highly accurate predictors. Although the case of binary classification is well understood, in the multiclass setting, the "correct" requirements on the weak classifier, or the notion of the most efficient boosting algorithms are missing. In this paper, we create a broad and ge…
Model assesses risks in CCP networks, identifying wrong-way risks.
problem Credit and liquidity risks in CCP networks.
method Developed a model to capture features of gap risk, feedback, and different participant risks.
result Identified wrong-way risks between clearing member defaults and market turbulence.
We provide an upper bound on the number of ordered Reidemeister moves required to pass between two diagrams of the same link. This bound is in terms of the number of unordered Reidemeister moves required.
Develops deep learning for optimizing 5G radio resource allocation.
problem Optimizing 5G base station radio resources for diverse QoS requirements.
method Cascaded neural network structure with deep transfer learning for non-stationary conditions.
result Cascaded neural networks outperform fully connected neural networks in QoS guarantee.
Study assesses health plan risk measures for Solvency Capital Requirement.
problem Assessing risk measures for health plans to meet Solvency Capital Requirement.
method Three-part regression model with three GLMs for claim counts, episode allocation, and severity.
result Reduction in regression models compared to traditional methods.
ELICA helps analysts extract relevant information during elicitation meetings.
problem Challenges in eliciting requirements due to analyst's lack of domain knowledge.
method ELICA uses a novel information extraction algorithm combining WFSTs and SVMs, presented in an interactive GUI.
result ELICA effectively extracts relevant information in real-time and facilitates interactive and dynamic process.
Three hard diagrams of the unknot require extra crossings to simplify.
problem Finding diagrams of the unknot that require many crossings to simplify.
method Applying previously proposed methods to construct diagrams and using computational resources to prove their hardness.
result Three hard diagrams of the unknot require at least three extra crossings.
Clarifies the theory of the deconfounder by Imai and Jiang.
problem Theoretical requirements for the deconfounder algorithm.
method Clarifies the assumption of 'no unobserved single-cause confounders' using empirical studies.
result Imai and Jiang's clarification of the assumption does not hold for counterexamples proposed by Ogburn et al. (2020).
Boosting can efficiently optimize any loss function without requiring first-order information.
problem Boosting's efficiency in optimizing loss functions without first-order information.
method Extending gradient-based optimization to use only zeroth-order information.
result Boosting can optimize any loss function efficiently, including non-convex, non-differentiable, and non-continuous ones.
Bayesian optimization with faster convergence without auxiliary optimization.
problem Time-consuming and hard to implement Bayesian optimization methods.
method Eliminates auxiliary optimization and delta-cover sampling requirements.
result Achieves exponential convergence rate.