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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

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58116173231 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for proxy variables

Single proxy variable helps estimate causal effects from confounders.

problem Estimating causal effects from treatment to outcome when unobserved confounders are present.
method Assumes a single, potentially multi-dimensional proxy variable of the unobserved confounder and a known mechanism generating the proxy from the confounder. Proves causal effects are identifiable under completeness assumption.
result Causal effects are identifiable under SPICE assumption.

Proposes a method to create robust linear models with noisy proxies of unobserved variables.

problem Learning robust linear models to handle interventions on unobserved variables with noisy proxies.
method Regularization term that balances in-distribution performance and robustness to interventions.
result Single proxy can create prediction optimal estimators under interventions of bounded strength.

Kernel methods estimate causal effects with a single proxy for deterministic confounders.

problem Estimating causal effects with a single proxy for an unobserved confounder.
method Two kernel-based methods: two-stage regression and maximum moment restriction.
result Both kernel methods can consistently estimate the causal effect.

A machine learning model may exhibit discrimination when used to make decisions involving people. One potential cause for such outcomes is that the model uses a statistical proxy for a protected demographic attribute. In this paper we formulate a definition of proxy use for the setting of linear regression and present …

2018-10-16abs ↗pdf ↗

Estimates causal effects with selection bias and confounding using regression.

problem Estimating causal effects in presence of selection bias and confounding.
method Two-step regression estimator (TSR) that corrects for selection bias and accounts for confounding.
result TSR estimator reduces variance and is validated in simulations.

A new framework improves VaR recalibration by balancing reliance on imperfect volatility proxies.

problem How to balance reliance on imperfect volatility proxies in one-sided VaR recalibration.
method Proxy-reliance control framework that interpolates between constant-shift and proxy-scaled corrections.
result Lower or intermediate proxy reliance can outperform fully proxy-scaled recalibration in stressed left-tail VaR control.

New method identifies proxies for causal effects on multiple outcomes.

problem Estimating causal effects in scenarios with multiple outcomes and treatments.
method Causal discovery method leveraging multiple outcomes as proxies for each treatment effect.
result Parallel studies of multiple outcomes can assist in causal identification.

The paper identifies causal effects in latent variable models using higher-order cumulants.

problem Challenges in identifying causal effects in latent variable models with latent confounders.
method Using higher-order cumulants, the paper addresses two challenging setups: a single proxy variable and underspecified instrumental variables.
result Causal effects are identifiable with a single proxy or instrument.

New method combines strengths of two PCL approaches without density ratio estimation.

problem Estimating causal functions in Proxy Causal Learning with unobserved confounders and proxies.
method Kernel-based doubly robust estimators combining treatment and outcome bridges, density ratio-free.
result Outperforms existing methods on PCL benchmarks, including a prior doubly robust method.

DFPV improves PCL for confounded bandit policy evaluation.

problem Estimating causal effects in confounded settings with high-dimensional data.
method Deep feature proxy variable method (DFPV) for high-dimensional, nonlinear relationships.
result DFPV outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic benchmarks and confounded bandit problems.

New method identifies causal effects with categorical unobserved confounders.

problem Estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders.
method Mixture learning and tensor decomposition for consistent estimation.
result Causal effects are identifiable with categorical unobserved confounders under suitable conditions.

New method identifies causal relationships using proxy variables in the presence of unmeasured confounders.

problem Challenges in inferring causal relationships due to unmeasured confounding.
method Develops a general nonparametric approach using a single negative control outcome (NCO) and negative control exposure (NCE).
result Establishes a new identification result and proposes a kernel-based testing procedure.

Estimates disease prevalence using non-ignorable missing data in health surveys.

problem Estimating disease prevalence in non-representative samples with non-ignorable missing data.
method Connects auxiliary proxy variable framework to label shift setting, uses high-dimensional covariates without generative models.
result Fails to account for non-ignorable missingness can lead to significant misestimations.

Discovering causal relations is fundamental to reasoning and intelligence. In particular, observational causal discovery algorithms estimate the cause-effect relation between two random entities XX and YY, given nn samples from P(X,Y)P(X,Y). In this paper, we develop a framework to estimate the cause-effect relation bet…

2017-02-23abs ↗pdf ↗

Regulators require financial institutions to estimate counterparty default risks from liquid CDS quotes for the valuation and risk management of OTC derivatives. However, the vast majority of counterparties do not have liquid CDS quotes and need proxy CDS rates. Existing methods cannot account for counterparty-specific…

2017-05-19abs ↗pdf ↗

SAGE generates subsurface velocity models from sparse well logs and seismic images.

problem Lack of high-quality subsurface velocity models due to limited data availability.
method Subsurface AI-driven geostatistical extraction using proxy posterior.
result SAGE produces geologically plausible and statistically accurate velocity realizations.

SGD improves generalization by using gradient variability as a proxy for data randomness.

problem Improving generalization in machine learning models trained with stochastic gradient descent.
method Bootstrap perspective on SGD, analyzing gradient variability and algorithmic variability.
result SGD avoids spurious solutions and improves generalization by implicitly regularizing the trace of the gradient covariance matrix.

Study tackles OPE in confounded settings, estimating policy value from proxies.

problem Difficulty in OPE due to unobserved confounders in infinite-horizon RL.
method Two-stage approach: estimating stationary distribution ratios and combining optimal balancing.
result Policy value can be identified from off-policy data with proxies and latent variable model.

As data sets grow in size, the ability of learning methods to find structure in them is increasingly hampered by the time needed to search the large spaces of possibilities and generate a score for each that takes all of the observed data into account. For instance, Bayesian networks, the model chosen in this paper, ha…

2012-06-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Reducing volatility proxy improves apparent market correlation dynamics.

problem Attributing apparent slow collective market dynamics to intrinsic or driver inheritance.
method Coupled Ornstein-Uhlenbeck model with VIX proxy, decomposing and controlling for autocorrelation.
result VIX-coupled model reduces effective relaxation time from 298 to 61 trading days, improving fit over bare mean reversion.

Kernel methods identify treatment effects with unobserved confounding using negative controls.

problem Learning causal relationships with unmeasured confounding.
method Kernel ridge regression algorithms for nonparametric treatment effects.
result Uniform consistency and finite sample rates of convergence proved.

A new method learns IV representation from data to estimate causal effects.

problem Inferring causal effects from observational data with latent confounders.
method Disentangled representation learning using Variational AutoEncoder (VAE).
result The proposed method outperforms existing IV-based estimators and VAE-based estimators.

Learning individual-level causal effects from observational data, such as inferring the most effective medication for a specific patient, is a problem of growing importance for policy makers. The most important aspect of inferring causal effects from observational data is the handling of confounders, factors that affec…

2017-05-24abs ↗pdf ↗

An approach to the modelling of volatile time series using a class of uniformity-preserving transforms for uniform random variables is proposed. V-transforms describe the relationship between quantiles of the stationary distribution of the time series and quantiles of the distribution of a predictable volatility proxy …

2020-02-24abs ↗pdf ↗

VTD uses deep embeddings to estimate treatment effects from longitudinal data without unconfoundedness assumption.

problem Challenges in estimating individualized treatment effects from longitudinal observational data due to confounding bias.
method Leverages deep variational embeddings and observed proxies to learn hidden confounders.
result Effective in estimating treatment effects when hidden confounding is the leading bias.

Study accelerates NAS research with a large dataset of ZC proxies.

problem Speeding up neural architecture search with ZC proxies.
method Created NAS-Bench-Suite, evaluated 13 ZC proxies across 28 tasks, and provided a unified codebase.
result ZC proxies capture substantial complementary information and can improve NAS algorithm performance.

Unified framework for analyzing neural networks trained by gradient descent.

problem Lack of generalizable guarantees for neural networks trained by gradient descent.
method Proxy convexity and proxy Polyak-Lojasiewicz inequalities.
result Unified guarantees for neural networks trained by gradient descent.

New approach predicts under latent shifts using high-dimensional images.

problem Prediction under latent subgroup shifts with high-dimensional observations.
method Recognition-parametrised model (RPM) for identifying causal latent structure.
result Successfully adapts predictions for high-dimensional image data.

New analysis shows surprising results on adaptation speed of causal models.

problem Investigate the adaptation speed of causal models under interventions.
method Use convergence rates from stochastic optimization to measure adaptation speed.
result Surprising findings: anticausal model can be faster than causal model under certain conditions.

Unified framework for estimating indirect effects in observational studies with unmeasured confounding.

problem Challenges in evaluating indirect effects due to unmeasured confounding and unethical exposures.
method Developed a unified identification and estimation framework using proximal causal inference.
result Unified identification and estimation of PIIE and causal effect of an intervening variable in settings with pervasive unmeasured confounding.

Study semi-supervised learning with noisy proxy covariates, deriving bounds and showing gains.

problem Learning from noisy proxy covariates with scarce labels.
method Two-stage estimator learning kernel eigenfeatures from all proxy covariates and fitting a ridge predictor on labeled data.
result Finite sample bounds show fast labeled sample rates and consistent gains over supervised and semi-supervised baselines.