A censored transformed model for proportional outcomes with boundary mass and an application to loss given default modeling.
problem Modeling proportional outcomes with boundary mass in loss given default (LGD) modeling.
method Zero-one censored transformed normal (ZOC-TN) model.
result Captures a wider range of qualitative density shapes than benchmark models while being parsimonious, computationally efficient, and numerically stable.
PRESTO improves rare event prediction by shrinking towards proportional odds model.
problem Difficult to predict rare events due to class imbalance.
method PRESTO relaxes proportional odds model by estimating separate weights for transitions between categories, imposing L1 penalty to shrink towards proportional odds.
result PRESTO consistently estimates decision boundary weights under sparsity assumption, improving rare probability estimation.
Develops conformalized prediction intervals for bounded continuous outcomes.
problem Predicting continuous outcomes within bounded ranges, especially when models are misspecified.
method Conformal prediction intervals based on transformation regression models, accounting for heteroscedasticity and asymmetry.
result Valid finite-sample coverage confirmed in simulations and real data applications.
SVB method provides scalable Bayesian proportional hazards model for high-dimensional gene expression data.
problem Bayesian methods for high-dimensional sparse survival data often sacrifice uncertainty quantification or computational scalability.
method Mean-field variational approximation for scalable Bayesian proportional hazards model.
result SVB method offers posterior distribution for parameters and variable selection via posterior inclusion probabilities.
ETM models improve efficiency in semi-supervised logistic regression.
problem Improving efficiency in logistic regression with limited labeled data.
method Developed exponential tilt mixture (ETM) models for semi-supervised estimation.
result ETM-based estimation demonstrates improved efficiency over supervised logistic regression.
Paper develops a method to predict cancer patient survival using molecular profiles.
problem Accurately predicting cancer patient survival with complex survival-molecular profile relationships.
method Kernel Cox partially linear regression with a novel regularized garrotized kernel machine (RegGKM) method.
result The proposed method outperforms other methods in predicting survival accuracy.
Analyzing large-scale, multi-experiment studies requires scientists to test each experimental outcome for statistical significance and then assess the results as a whole. We present Black Box FDR (BB-FDR), an empirical-Bayes method for analyzing multi-experiment studies when many covariates are gathered per experiment.…
New method uses surrogate outcomes and single-record data to improve suicide risk modeling.
problem Lack of historical information in single-record patients hinders modeling rare medical events.
method Hybrid framework combining supervised and unsupervised learning to integrate concurrent and single-record data.
result Single-record data and concurrent diagnoses provide valuable information for improving suicide risk modeling.
Proposes a framework for causal inference with processed outcomes in biomedical research.
problem Impact of intra-subject processing on inter-subject statistical inference in biomedical research.
method Semiparametric framework with multiply robust estimators and step-down procedure for high-dimensional inference.
result Superior performance of the proposed approach demonstrated through simulations and application to autism research.
The method integrates survival constraints into NMF for identifying survival-associated gene clusters.
problem Understanding and interpreting high-dimensional biological data for disease markers.
method Cox proportional hazards regression integrated with NMF via proportional hazards non-negative matrix factorization.
result The method can uncover survival-associated gene clusters in cancer gene expression data.
Study compares LSTM, Transformer, and Mamba for bladder cancer recurrence analysis.
problem Complex time-dependent data in bladder cancer recurrence analysis.
method Evaluation of LSTM, Transformer, and Mamba models using Cox proportional hazards model.
result LSTM-Cox model outperforms Transformer-Cox and Mamba-Cox models in prediction accuracy.
Enhances Cox model for survival analysis with symbolic non-linear log-risk functions.
problem Limited interpretability and non-linearity in traditional Cox models.
method Introduces GCPH model using Kolmogorov-Arnold Networks for symbolic non-linear log-risk functions.
result GCPH achieves competitive performance and superior interpretability.
FairPOT balances fairness and AUC performance by selectively transforming risk scores.
problem Balancing fairness and AUC performance in high-stakes domains.
method FairPOT uses proportional optimal transport to selectively transform risk scores.
result FairPOT consistently improves fairness with minimal AUC degradation or even positive gains.
New method uses unlabeled data to estimate intercept in case-control logistic regression.
problem Estimating intercept in case-control logistic regression.
method Construct likelihood function, use iterative algorithm to find maximum likelihood estimator.
result Proposed method identifies intercept and improves estimation efficiency.
We extend the fundamental theorem of asset pricing to a model where the risky stock is subject to proportional transaction costs in the form of bid-ask spreads and the bank account has different interest rates for borrowing and lending. We show that such a model is free of arbitrage if and only if one can embed in it a…
This monograph introduces deep learning models for predicting time-to-event outcomes.
problem Predicting critical events and their timing from time series data.
method Neural networks and deep learning models for survival analysis.
result Improved accuracy in predicting time-to-event outcomes using deep learning.
Study compares Cox model and RSF for predicting patient survival, finding RSF superior in certain scenarios.
problem Comparing predictive accuracy of Cox proportional hazards model and Random Survival Forest for patient-specific survival probabilities.
method Conducted a comprehensive comparison study using simulation scenarios and real-world datasets.
result RSF outperforms Cox model in nonproportional hazards settings and with treatment-covariate interactions.
Study uses ML to predict HL survival, outperforming CoxPH.
problem Improving survival prediction for HL patients.
method Compared multiple ML algorithms to CoxPH model.
result ML models outperform CoxPH in predicting HL survival.
Predicting an individual's risk of experiencing a future clinical outcome is a statistical task with important consequences for both practicing clinicians and public health experts. Modern observational databases such as electronic health records (EHRs) provide an alternative to the longitudinal cohort studies traditio…
Proposes a new Q-learning method for survival outcomes in clinical trials.
problem Incomplete follow-up data and nonlinear covariate effects in clinical trials.
method Combines Buckley-James boosting with flexible base learners for estimating optimal treatment regimes.
result Improves treatment decision accuracy and stability in longitudinal clinical trials.
Model shows partial compliance can lead to less fair outcomes than expected.
problem How partial compliance affects fairness in competitive markets.
method Simple model of employment market, simulation to explore effects.
result Partial compliance can lead to less fair outcomes than expected.
ICODEN models survival data with interval-censored times using neural networks and ODEs.
problem Predicting time-to-event outcomes with interval-censored data, especially when models require strong assumptions or cannot handle high-dimensional predictors.
method ICODEN uses ordinary differential equations and deep neural networks to model the hazard function and cumulative hazard without proportional hazards assumption.
result ICODEN achieves satisfactory predictive accuracy across various simulation and real-world applications, handling high-dimensional predictors robustly.
Background: Choosing the most performing method in terms of outcome prediction or variables selection is a recurring problem in prognosis studies, leading to many publications on methods comparison. But some aspects have received little attention. First, most comparison studies treat prediction performance and variable…
A new knockoff statistic using conditional prediction function improves variable selection in complex models.
problem Controlling false discovery rate in complex models with nonlinear relationships.
method Introducing a knockoff statistic based on the conditional prediction function for use with machine learning models.
result The CPF statistics provide superior power in detecting prognostic variables over existing knockoff statistics.
A method selects candidates based on predictions with statistical control.
problem Screening candidates for resource-intensive steps like hiring or drug discovery.
method Wraps around any prediction model to produce a subset of candidates with controlled false selection rate.
result Empirically demonstrates selection of candidates whose predictions exceed a data-dependent threshold.
We propose a probabilistic modeling framework for learning the dynamic patterns in the collective behaviors of social agents and developing profiles for different behavioral groups, using data collected from multiple information sources. The proposed model is based on a hierarchical Bayesian process, in which each obse…
We study the behavior of simple models for financial markets with widely spread frequency either in the trading activity of agents or in the occurrence of basic events. The generic picture of a phase transition between information efficient and inefficient markets still persists even when agents trade on widely spread …
Estimator improves prediction with missing data in multi-environment settings.
problem Handling missing data in multi-environment settings for robust prediction.
method Derive an estimator from invariance objective under missing outcomes.
result The estimator achieves lower prediction error despite using a biased imputation model.
The paper analyzes LASSO penalization for high-dimensional Beta regression models.
problem Theoretical analysis of LASSO in high-dimensional Beta regression.
method Non-convexity handling through a neighborhood framework, debiasing for confidence intervals, proximal gradient algorithm.
result Non-asymptotic bound on ℓ1-error of stationary points. Research funding agencies routinely use a proportion of their total revenues to support internal administration and marketing costs. The ratio of administration to total costs, referred to as the administration ratio, is highly variable and within any single fund depends on many factors including the number and average…
Paper proposes a method to estimate true positive proportion without knowing it.
problem Bias in binary classifier performance due to different positive item proportions.
method Maximum likelihood estimator for true proportion of positives.
result Method accurately estimates true positive proportion in data sets.
Equilibrium found for multi-agent trading with transaction costs.
problem Designing a trading equilibrium for multiple agents with transaction costs.
method Proving the existence of a continuous-time Radner equilibrium with incentives and transaction costs.
result Each agent optimally trades for a specific time interval before stopping, influenced by transaction costs.
Paper improves deep learning for instance-level classification from label proportions.
problem Dealing with noisy pseudo-labeling and high-entropy class distributions in LLP.
method Introducing a two-stage training approach with constrained optimization and mixup strategy.
result Significant performance improvement in instance-level classification.
We introduce a new approach for topic modeling that is supervised by survival analysis. Specifically, we build on recent work on unsupervised topic modeling with so-called anchor words by providing supervision through an elastic-net regularized Cox proportional hazards model. In short, an anchor word being present in a…
Learning from Label Proportions (LLP) is a learning setting, where the training data is provided in groups, or "bags", and only the proportion of each class in each bag is known. The task is to learn a model to predict the class labels of the individual instances. LLP has broad applications in political science, market…
Develops a method to estimate average hazard under non-proportional hazards without relying on proportional hazards assumption.
problem Estimation of treatment effects when hazards are non-proportional, leading to unstable hazard ratios.
method Semiparametric, doubly robust framework for covariate-adjusted average hazard estimation.
result Valid sqrt{n} inference with small bias and near-nominal confidence-interval coverage across proportional and non-proportional hazards settings.
Study reveals AI skin cancer classifiers underperform for darker skin phototypes, advocating for fairness auditing.
problem AI bias in dermatology, particularly for darker skin phototypes.
method Predictive Representativity (PR) framework, evaluating classifiers on HAM10000 and BOSQUE Test sets.
result Substantial performance disparities by skin phototype, highlighting AI bias.
New learning rules achieve optimal sample complexity for weakly supervised classification.
problem Learning from label proportions in weakly supervised settings.
method Debiased proportional square loss and EasyLLP learning rule.
result Achieves optimal sample complexity in both realizable and agnostic settings.
learn2mix trains neural nets faster by adjusting class proportions dynamically.
problem Training neural nets efficiently with limited resources and imbalanced classes.
method Adaptive class proportion adjustment during training.
result Neural nets trained with learn2mix converge faster than static methods.
We study the problem of learning with label proportions in which the training data is provided in groups and only the proportion of each class in each group is known. We propose a new method called proportion-SVM, or ∝SVM, which explicitly models the latent unknown instance labels together with the known group …
A reinsurance contract should address the conflicting interests of the insurer and reinsurer. Most of existing optimal reinsurance contracts only considers the interests of one party. This article combines the proportional and stop-loss reinsurance contracts and introduces a new reinsurance contract called proportional…
Study examines how insurance affects households prone to proportional losses, especially those near poverty.
problem Impact of insurance on households susceptible to proportional losses, focusing on poverty traps.
method Modelled proportional capital losses with insurance, derived closed formulae and non-local differential equations.
result New formulae and methods to calculate trapping probability, constraints on parameters to prevent certainty of trapping.
Paper proposes a new method for estimating mixture proportions without irreducibility assumption.
problem Estimating mixture proportions when component distributions are not irreducible.
method Developed a resampling-based meta-algorithm that adapts existing MPE algorithms to non-irreducible settings.
result Empirical results show improved estimation performance compared to baseline methods and regrouping-based algorithms.
Kernel means are frequently used to represent probability distributions in machine learning problems. In particular, the well known kernel density estimator and the kernel mean embedding both have the form of a kernel mean. Unfortunately, kernel means are faced with scalability issues. A single point evaluation of the …
Experimentally, it has been observed that humans and animals often make decisions that do not maximize their expected utility, but rather choose outcomes randomly, with probability proportional to expected utility. Probability matching, as this strategy is called, is equivalent to maximum entropy reinforcement learning…
Paper improves signal proportion estimation by accounting for variable dependence.
problem Traditional estimators assume independence, limiting applicability in real-world scenarios.
method Integrates arbitrary covariance dependence information using principal factor approximation.
result Method outperforms state-of-the-art estimators in accuracy and detection of weaker signals.
RLSbench benchmarks domain adaptation under label proportion shifts, revealing widespread failures and proposing a two-step meta-algorithm.
problem Domain adaptation under label proportion shifts is poorly understood and inconsistent across methods.
method RLSbench introduces a large-scale benchmark with 500 distribution shift pairs. It proposes a two-step meta-algorithm to improve domain adaptation methods under label proportion shifts.
result The two-step meta-algorithm improves domain adaptation methods by 2-10% accuracy points under large label proportion shifts.
Proportional transaction costs present difficult theoretical problems in trading algorithm design, on account of their lack of analytical tractability. The author derives a solution of DT-NT-DT form for an arbitrary model in which the the traded asset has diffusive dynamics described by one or more stochastic risk fact…