The study explores machine learning for predicting customer propensity-to-pay uncertainty.
problem Improving customer experience, reducing financial hardship, and managing cash flow risks.
method Investigated machine learning models for predicting propensity-to-pay, focusing on uncertainty estimation.
result Novel Bayesian Neural Network model for binary classification of propensity-to-pay.
Unified causal inference framework using distribution adaptation.
problem Estimating Average Treatment Effects (ATE) under uncertainty in propensity scores.
method Reframed as domain adaptation problem, using machine learning techniques.
result Joint Robust Estimator (JRE) achieves up to 15% reduction in MSE.
New method improves causal effect estimation by addressing imbalance in training data.
problem Imbalance between treatment and control groups in training data.
method Combines distributionally robust optimization and weight regularization.
result Consistent improvements over existing methods in experiments.
Ablation studies show BCF model's propensity score is not essential for treatment effect estimation.
problem Understanding the necessity of propensity score in nonparametric treatment effect estimation.
method Partial ablation studies of Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) model.
result Excluding estimated propensity score does not affect treatment effect estimation or uncertainty quantification.
Proposes DR algorithms for distributionally robust off-policy evaluation and learning.
problem Sensitive to environment distribution shifts in offline observational data.
method Doubly robust and distributionally robust approaches for OPE/L.
result Achieves semiparametric efficiency and fast regret rate.
We study offline recommender learning from explicit rating feedback in the presence of selection bias. A current promising solution for the bias is the inverse propensity score (IPS) estimation. However, the performance of existing propensity-based methods can suffer significantly from the propensity estimation bias. I…
The paper resolves the paradox of using unlabeled data for treatment effect estimation.
problem Using unlabeled data to estimate propensity scores for treatment effect estimation.
method Proposes a simple procedure to reconcile the use of estimated propensity scores with the advice to use true propensity scores.
result Direct regression may be preferable to inverse-propensity weighting in many circumstances.
This study optimizes covariate density and propensity score for efficient ATE estimation.
problem Efficiently estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) with minimal variance.
method Adaptive experiment optimizing both covariate density and propensity score.
result Proposed method minimizes the semiparametric efficiency bound for ATE estimation.
Proposes stabilized weights for causal inference using isotonic calibration.
problem Stability and bias issues in inverse propensity weighting.
method Post-hoc isotonic calibration of inverse propensity weights.
result Improves performance of doubly robust estimators of average treatment effect.
Improves robustness of propensity score estimators in challenging settings.
problem Limited overlap, small sample sizes, or unbalanced data.
method Extends calibration techniques for propensity score models, focusing on sample-splitting schemes.
result Calibration reduces variance and bias in inverse probability weighting and double/debiased machine learning frameworks.
Bayesian approaches have become increasingly popular in causal inference problems due to their conceptual simplicity, excellent performance and in-built uncertainty quantification ('posterior credible sets'). We investigate Bayesian inference for average treatment effects from observational data, which is a challenging…
Enhances credit card limit adjustments by considering treatment uncertainty and prediction criteria.
problem Optimal treatment selection under multitreatment scenarios.
method Proposes a comprehensive methodology incorporating conditional value-at-risk and prediction criterion for continuous outcomes.
result Significantly improved policy performance in credit card limit adjustments.
In most real-world recommender systems, the observed rating data are subject to selection bias, and the data are thus missing-not-at-random. Developing a method to facilitate the learning of a recommender with biased feedback is one of the most challenging problems, as it is widely known that naive approaches under sel…
A new tensor completion method handles missing data with missing not at random entries.
problem Handling missing data in tensors where the probability of observation depends on other entries.
method Estimate propensities using convex relaxation, then use higher-order SVD with inverse propensities weights.
result Finite-sample error bounds on the completed tensor are provided.
FIDDLE uses deep learning to estimate ATE from complex data.
problem Estimating ATE from high-dimensional, correlated covariates with sparse nonlinear effects.
method Factor-augmented deep learning for propensity and outcome models.
result FIDDLE consistently estimates ATE under model misspecification and is semiparametrically efficient.
New method reduces confidence interval sizes for causal inference.
problem Inaccurate propensity scores and extreme scores cause large confidence intervals.
method Data-dependent Coarse IPW (CIPW) estimators.
result Robust CIPW estimators reduce confidence interval sizes to ε+1/√n.
Observational cohort studies with oversampled exposed subjects are typically implemented to understand the causal effect of a rare exposure. Because the distribution of exposed subjects in the sample differs from the source population, estimation of a propensity score function (i.e., probability of exposure given basel…
Presentation bias is one of the key challenges when learning from implicit feedback in search engines, as it confounds the relevance signal with uninformative signals due to position in the ranking, saliency, and other presentation factors. While it was recently shown how counterfactual learning-to-rank (LTR) approache…
Proposes methods to estimate posterior probability and propensity score functions without assuming constant propensity score.
problem Learning from biased positive-unlabeled data.
method Parametric approach to joint estimation of posterior probability and propensity score functions using maximum likelihood and alternating maximization.
result Proposed methods are comparable or better than existing methods based on Expectation-Maximisation scheme.
The paper investigates how calibrating propensity scores improves DML estimates of average treatment effects.
problem Improving the accuracy of DML estimates in finite samples.
method Propensity score calibration within the Double/debiased machine learning framework.
result Calibrating propensity scores reduces the root mean squared error of DML estimates of average treatment effects in finite samples.
Post-calibration improves the accuracy of causal effect estimation.
problem Improperly calibrated propensity scores lead to inaccurate causal effect estimation.
method Performed a simulation study to assess the impact of post-calibration on causal effect estimation.
result Post-calibration reduces the error in estimating the average treatment effect, especially for expressive uncalibrated statistical estimators.
In biostatistics, propensity score is a common approach to analyze the imbalance of covariate and process confounding covariates to eliminate differences between groups. While there are an abundant amount of methods to compute propensity score, a common issue of them is the corrupted labels in the dataset. For example,…
Propensity score matching improves fairness in machine learning models.
problem Bias in training data affects fairness metrics in machine learning models.
method Propensity score matching to evaluate and mitigate bias in test data.
result FairMatch significantly reduces bias in test data without sacrificing predictive performance.
Quantum approach models economic decisions with probabilistic and dynamic probabilities.
problem Traditional economic models fail to explain recent financial crises.
method Develops a quantum probabilistic framework for economics.
result Quantum circuits can model cognitive phenomena like preference reversal.
In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized M-estimators for the propensity score and outcome models. We then calibrate the initial e…
In this paper we characterise the propensity of big capital investments to systematically deliver poor outcomes as "fragility," a notion suggested by Nassim Taleb. A thing or system that is easily harmed by randomness is fragile. We argue that, contrary to their appearance, big capital investments break easily - i.e. d…
Some general features of kinetic multi-agent models are reviewed, with particular attention to the relation between the agent saving propensities and the form of the equilibrium wealth distribution. The effect of a finite cutoff of the saving propensity distribution on the corresponding wealth distribution is studied. …
We review a simple model of closed economy, where the economic agents make money transactions and a saving criterion is present. We observe the Gibbs distribution for zero saving propensity, and non-Gibbs distributions otherwise. While the exact solution in the case of zero saving propensity is already known to be give…
Proposes a method for generating prediction intervals in dose-response models using conformal prediction.
problem Uncertainty quantification in continuous treatments for personalized healthcare decisions.
method Causal dose-response problem framed as covariate shift, using weighted conformal prediction with propensity estimation and kernel functions.
result Demonstrates the significance of covariate shift assumptions for robust prediction intervals.
Study introduces a new framework for policy learning without positivity assumption.
problem Learning optimal treatment assignment policies from observational data with constraints.
method Incremental propensity score policies and semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Validated framework's performance through numerical experiments.
Proposes a method to stabilize treatment effect estimation with unbalanced data.
problem Unbalanced treatment assignment leading to unstable propensity score estimations.
method Undersamples data for propensity score modeling and calibrates scores to match original distribution.
result The estimator retains asymptotic properties of the DML estimator and improves finite sample performance.
Proposes a novel neural network method to estimate average treatment effect.
problem Bias in estimating average treatment effect due to confounding and instrumental variables.
method Self-balancing neural network (Sbnet) that estimates pseudo propensity scores and average treatment effect in one step.
result Proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in simulations and real-world datasets.
Simplified tutorial on doubly robust learning for causal inference.
problem Challenges in applying doubly robust methods due to complexity and software barriers.
method Combines propensity score and outcome modeling for robust causal inference.
result Makes doubly robust learning accessible through simplified methodology and practical examples.
Improved A/B testing by leveraging system similarities.
problem Traditional A/B testing ignores potential system similarities.
method Off-policy estimation to exploit system propensities.
result Improved A/B testing estimators achieve better accuracy.
Proposes a Bayesian framework for causal inference without explicit likelihood modeling.
problem Challenges in principled Bayesian inference for causal effects.
method Generalized Bayesian framework that places priors directly on causal estimands and updates using identification-driven loss functions.
result Yields generalized posteriors for causal effects with uncertainty quantification.
Proposes MR estimator for unbiased recommendation models.
problem Data biases in recommender systems lead to inaccurate predictions.
method Introduces multiple robust (MR) learning approach combining multiple imputation and propensity models.
result MR estimator achieves unbiasedness when any of the models is accurate.
Q-Learner estimates ratio-based treatment effects without imposing parametric structures.
problem Estimating treatment effects as ratios in non-linear settings.
method Decomposes ratio-CATE into two classification tasks, using doubly robust augmentations.
result Q-Learner outperforms other methods in low-conversion and observational data settings.
New method for PU learning with instance-dependent propensity scores.
problem Learning from positive and unlabeled data with instance-dependent labeling.
method Empirical risk minimization of joint risk function, alternating optimization of posterior probability and propensity score.
result The method achieves comparable or better performance than state-of-the-art methods.
Various multi-agent models of wealth distributions defined by microscopic laws regulating the trades, with or without a saving criterion, are reviewed. We discuss and clarify the equilibrium properties of the model with constant global saving propensity, resulting in Gamma distributions, and their equivalence to the Ma…
We consider a simple model of a closed economic system where the total money is conserved and the number of economic agents is fixed. In analogy to statistical systems in equilibrium, money and the average money per economic agent are equivalent to energy and temperature, respectively. We investigate the effect of the …
In this paper, we propose deep learning techniques for econometrics, specifically for causal inference and for estimating individual as well as average treatment effects. The contribution of this paper is twofold: 1. For generalized neighbor matching to estimate individual and average treatment effects, we analyze the …
Quantum neural networks improve causal inference in biomedical studies, especially for small samples.
problem Addressing selection bias in comparing surgical techniques using observational data.
method Developed QNN-based propensity score models focusing on four key covariates (Age, Sex, Stage, BMI). Employed a linear ZFeatureMap for data encoding, SummedPaulis for predictions, and CMA-ES for optimization. Integrated noise modeling to enhance predictive stability.
result QNNs, particularly with noise-aware strategies, outperformed classical models in small samples, achieving AUC up to 0.750 for n=100.
The paper develops methods to handle missing data using regularized M-estimation in reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
problem Handling missing data in statistical analysis.
method Kernel ridge regression for imputation and maximum entropy method for propensity score estimation.
result The proposed methods achieve statistical consistency and asymptotic equivalence.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
Novel LSE estimator improves off-policy learning and evaluation.
problem High variance and poor performance with low-quality propensity scores and heavy-tailed reward distributions.
method Introduces a novel estimator based on the log-sum-exponential (LSE) operator.
result Achieves convergence rate of O(n−ε/(1+ε)) for regret bounds. Optimizes insurance pricing by accounting for policyholders' price sensitivity.
problem Traditional insurance pricing does not consider policyholders' price sensitivity.
method Formulates insurance pricing as a decision-making problem and uses off-policy evaluation and stochastic control.
result Neural networks outperform existing techniques for policy optimization.
Neural score matching improves high-dimensional causal inference by using neural networks for balancing scores.
problem Impracticality of traditional matching methods in high-dimensional datasets due to the curse of dimensionality.
method Develops neural networks to create non-trivial, multivariate balancing scores for high-dimensional causal inference.
result Neural score matching outperforms other methods in treatment effect estimation and reducing imbalance on high-dimensional datasets.
We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential outcomes using a deep multitask network with a set of shared layers among the fa…