Proposes stabilized weights for causal inference using isotonic calibration.
problem Stability and bias issues in inverse propensity weighting.
method Post-hoc isotonic calibration of inverse propensity weights.
result Improves performance of doubly robust estimators of average treatment effect.
Observational cohort studies with oversampled exposed subjects are typically implemented to understand the causal effect of a rare exposure. Because the distribution of exposed subjects in the sample differs from the source population, estimation of a propensity score function (i.e., probability of exposure given basel…
The paper resolves the paradox of using unlabeled data for treatment effect estimation.
problem Using unlabeled data to estimate propensity scores for treatment effect estimation.
method Proposes a simple procedure to reconcile the use of estimated propensity scores with the advice to use true propensity scores.
result Direct regression may be preferable to inverse-propensity weighting in many circumstances.
Improves robustness of propensity score estimators in challenging settings.
problem Limited overlap, small sample sizes, or unbalanced data.
method Extends calibration techniques for propensity score models, focusing on sample-splitting schemes.
result Calibration reduces variance and bias in inverse probability weighting and double/debiased machine learning frameworks.
New method improves causal effect estimation by addressing imbalance in training data.
problem Imbalance between treatment and control groups in training data.
method Combines distributionally robust optimization and weight regularization.
result Consistent improvements over existing methods in experiments.
New method reduces confidence interval sizes for causal inference.
problem Inaccurate propensity scores and extreme scores cause large confidence intervals.
method Data-dependent Coarse IPW (CIPW) estimators.
result Robust CIPW estimators reduce confidence interval sizes to ε+1/√n.
In this paper, we propose a robust method to estimate the average treatment effects in observational studies when the number of potential confounders is possibly much greater than the sample size. We first use a class of penalized M-estimators for the propensity score and outcome models. We then calibrate the initial e…
FIDDLE uses deep learning to estimate ATE from complex data.
problem Estimating ATE from high-dimensional, correlated covariates with sparse nonlinear effects.
method Factor-augmented deep learning for propensity and outcome models.
result FIDDLE consistently estimates ATE under model misspecification and is semiparametrically efficient.
Quantum neural networks improve causal inference in biomedical studies, especially for small samples.
problem Addressing selection bias in comparing surgical techniques using observational data.
method Developed QNN-based propensity score models focusing on four key covariates (Age, Sex, Stage, BMI). Employed a linear ZFeatureMap for data encoding, SummedPaulis for predictions, and CMA-ES for optimization. Integrated noise modeling to enhance predictive stability.
result QNNs, particularly with noise-aware strategies, outperformed classical models in small samples, achieving AUC up to 0.750 for n=100.
In most real-world recommender systems, the observed rating data are subject to selection bias, and the data are thus missing-not-at-random. Developing a method to facilitate the learning of a recommender with biased feedback is one of the most challenging problems, as it is widely known that naive approaches under sel…
Paper proposes CounterSample to improve convergence in LTR models.
problem Large variance in IPS weights slows convergence in LTR models.
method Introduces CounterSample algorithm with provably better convergence.
result CounterSample converges faster than standard IPS-weighted methods.
Proposes a new method to handle data heterogeneity in causal inference.
problem Challenges of collaborating between different data centers due to heterogeneity.
method Collaborative inverse propensity score weighting estimator to adjust for distribution shift.
result Significant improvements over traditional meta-analysis methods when dealing with increased heterogeneity.
This study optimizes covariate density and propensity score for efficient ATE estimation.
problem Efficiently estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) with minimal variance.
method Adaptive experiment optimizing both covariate density and propensity score.
result Proposed method minimizes the semiparametric efficiency bound for ATE estimation.
The paper addresses statistical inference for online decision-making in a contextual bandit setting.
problem Understanding the performance of reward models in online decision-making with contextual information.
method The paper uses the contextual bandit framework with a linear reward model and the ε-greedy policy to address the exploration-exploitation dilemma. It employs the martingale central limit theorem and inverse propensity score weighting to establish asymptotic normality of parameter estimators. result The online ordinary least squares estimator and the online weighted least squares estimator are asymptotically normal, providing insights into the performance of the reward model.
The paper develops methods to handle missing data using regularized M-estimation in reproducing kernel Hilbert space.
problem Handling missing data in statistical analysis.
method Kernel ridge regression for imputation and maximum entropy method for propensity score estimation.
result The proposed methods achieve statistical consistency and asymptotic equivalence.
Novel LSE estimator improves off-policy learning and evaluation.
problem High variance and poor performance with low-quality propensity scores and heavy-tailed reward distributions.
method Introduces a novel estimator based on the log-sum-exponential (LSE) operator.
result Achieves convergence rate of O(n−ε/(1+ε)) for regret bounds. The paper proposes a new method for covariate balancing using IPM to improve causal inference.
problem Covariate imbalance in causal inference weighting methods, especially when models are not correctly specified.
method The integral probability metric (IPM) is used to determine optimal weights for treated and control groups.
result The proposed method can be consistent without specifying either the propensity score or outcome regression model.
Two new methods generate probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects.
problem Generating probabilistic forecasts of individual treatment effects for risk-aware decision-making.
method Proposes CCT and CMC meta-learners combining conformal predictive systems with analytic convolution or Monte Carlo sampling.
result Achieve probabilistically calibrated predictive distributions and performant continuous ranked probability scores.
Unified causal inference framework using distribution adaptation.
problem Estimating Average Treatment Effects (ATE) under uncertainty in propensity scores.
method Reframed as domain adaptation problem, using machine learning techniques.
result Joint Robust Estimator (JRE) achieves up to 15% reduction in MSE.
Proposes a method to improve learning when training data is not representative.
problem Improving supervised learning when training data is not representative (covariate shift).
method Conditioning on propensity scores to balance covariates within strata.
result Significantly improved target prediction and AUC (0.958) on supernovae classification challenge.
Study designs for estimating treatment effects in adaptive experiments.
problem Estimating treatment effects under adaptive treatment assignment.
method Propose and analyze IPW and AIPW estimators, establish CLTs under design stability.
result Central limit theorems for IPW and AIPW estimators under design stability.
Post-calibration improves the accuracy of causal effect estimation.
problem Improperly calibrated propensity scores lead to inaccurate causal effect estimation.
method Performed a simulation study to assess the impact of post-calibration on causal effect estimation.
result Post-calibration reduces the error in estimating the average treatment effect, especially for expressive uncalibrated statistical estimators.
The paper investigates how calibrating propensity scores improves DML estimates of average treatment effects.
problem Improving the accuracy of DML estimates in finite samples.
method Propensity score calibration within the Double/debiased machine learning framework.
result Calibrating propensity scores reduces the root mean squared error of DML estimates of average treatment effects in finite samples.
Proposes methods to estimate posterior probability and propensity score functions without assuming constant propensity score.
problem Learning from biased positive-unlabeled data.
method Parametric approach to joint estimation of posterior probability and propensity score functions using maximum likelihood and alternating maximization.
result Proposed methods are comparable or better than existing methods based on Expectation-Maximisation scheme.
Inverse classification uses an induced classifier as a queryable oracle to guide test instances towards a preferred posterior class label. The result produced from the process is a set of instance-specific feature perturbations, or recommendations, that optimally improve the probability of the class label. In this work…
In biostatistics, propensity score is a common approach to analyze the imbalance of covariate and process confounding covariates to eliminate differences between groups. While there are an abundant amount of methods to compute propensity score, a common issue of them is the corrupted labels in the dataset. For example,…
Paper proposes a new method for estimating treatment effects using interpretable deep learning models.
problem Estimating treatment effects from observational data with interpretability.
method Proposes a novel objective function using energy distance balancing score and neural additive models for improved interpretability.
result Demonstrates superior performance over state-of-the-art methods in semi-synthetic experiments.
Propensity score matching improves fairness in machine learning models.
problem Bias in training data affects fairness metrics in machine learning models.
method Propensity score matching to evaluate and mitigate bias in test data.
result FairMatch significantly reduces bias in test data without sacrificing predictive performance.
Neural score matching improves high-dimensional causal inference by using neural networks for balancing scores.
problem Impracticality of traditional matching methods in high-dimensional datasets due to the curse of dimensionality.
method Develops neural networks to create non-trivial, multivariate balancing scores for high-dimensional causal inference.
result Neural score matching outperforms other methods in treatment effect estimation and reducing imbalance on high-dimensional datasets.
When learning from a batch of logged bandit feedback, the discrepancy between the policy to be learned and the off-policy training data imposes statistical and computational challenges. Unlike classical supervised learning and online learning settings, in batch contextual bandit learning, one only has access to a colle…
Proposes a method to stabilize treatment effect estimation with unbalanced data.
problem Unbalanced treatment assignment leading to unstable propensity score estimations.
method Undersamples data for propensity score modeling and calibrates scores to match original distribution.
result The estimator retains asymptotic properties of the DML estimator and improves finite sample performance.
This tutorial introduces causal modeling methods for researchers.
problem Understanding causal relationships in research studies.
method Integrates potential outcomes and graphical methods for causal modeling.
result Clear notation and practical examples for applied researchers.
Study introduces a new framework for policy learning without positivity assumption.
problem Learning optimal treatment assignment policies from observational data with constraints.
method Incremental propensity score policies and semiparametric efficiency theory.
result Validated framework's performance through numerical experiments.
Ablation studies show BCF model's propensity score is not essential for treatment effect estimation.
problem Understanding the necessity of propensity score in nonparametric treatment effect estimation.
method Partial ablation studies of Bayesian Causal Forest (BCF) model.
result Excluding estimated propensity score does not affect treatment effect estimation or uncertainty quantification.
Adaptive experiment designs can dramatically improve statistical efficiency in randomized trials, but they also complicate statistical inference. For example, it is now well known that the sample mean is biased in adaptive trials. Inferential challenges are exacerbated when our parameter of interest differs from the pa…
Proposes a novel neural network method to estimate average treatment effect.
problem Bias in estimating average treatment effect due to confounding and instrumental variables.
method Self-balancing neural network (Sbnet) that estimates pseudo propensity scores and average treatment effect in one step.
result Proposed method outperforms state-of-the-art methods in simulations and real-world datasets.
Estimating average causal effect (ACE) is useful whenever we want to know the effect of an intervention on a given outcome. In the absence of a randomized experiment, many methods such as stratification and inverse propensity weighting have been proposed to estimate ACE. However, it is hard to know which method is opti…
Simplified tutorial on doubly robust learning for causal inference.
problem Challenges in applying doubly robust methods due to complexity and software barriers.
method Combines propensity score and outcome modeling for robust causal inference.
result Makes doubly robust learning accessible through simplified methodology and practical examples.
We propose a novel approach for inferring the individualized causal effects of a treatment (intervention) from observational data. Our approach conceptualizes causal inference as a multitask learning problem; we model a subject's potential outcomes using a deep multitask network with a set of shared layers among the fa…
Paper uses PSM to improve fake news detection generalizability.
problem Confounding variables in fake news features.
method Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to select features.
result Generalizability of fake news detection methods improved significantly.
Proposes MDR estimator for unbiased OPE with large action spaces.
problem Severe bias and variance tradeoffs in OPE with large action spaces.
method Marginalized Doubly Robust (MDR) estimator, reducing variance and bias.
result MDR estimator is unbiased under weaker assumptions than MIPS.
In this paper, we propose deep learning techniques for econometrics, specifically for causal inference and for estimating individual as well as average treatment effects. The contribution of this paper is twofold: 1. For generalized neighbor matching to estimate individual and average treatment effects, we analyze the …
New algorithm improves causal effect estimation for continuous treatments.
problem Observational causal inference with continuous treatments.
method End-to-end entropy balancing for maximizing causal inference accuracy.
result Our algorithm estimates causal effect more accurately than baseline.
Balance corrects biased survey data for more accurate insights.
problem Bias in survey data leads to inaccurate insights and underperforming models.
method Three steps: bias understanding, weight adjustment, and evaluation.
result Corrected data leads to more accurate ML model training and insights.
Algorithm identifies best arm with biased proxy and selective ground truth audits.
problem Fixed-confidence best-arm identification with biased proxy and selective ground truth.
method Propensity-weighted estimator and adaptive auditing algorithm.
result Plug-in Neyman rule achieves near-oracle audit efficiency.
Proposes a scalable method for counterfactual prediction using machine learning.
problem De-bias causal estimators with high-dimensional data in observational studies.
method Uses entropy balancing to learn weights minimizing Jensen-Shannon divergence, leading to robust counterfactual predictions.
result Consistent causal estimation if either propensity score or outcome model is correctly specified.
New method for PU learning with instance-dependent propensity scores.
problem Learning from positive and unlabeled data with instance-dependent labeling.
method Empirical risk minimization of joint risk function, alternating optimization of posterior probability and propensity score.
result The method achieves comparable or better performance than state-of-the-art methods.
Optimizes insurance pricing by accounting for policyholders' price sensitivity.
problem Traditional insurance pricing does not consider policyholders' price sensitivity.
method Formulates insurance pricing as a decision-making problem and uses off-policy evaluation and stochastic control.
result Neural networks outperform existing techniques for policy optimization.