Research identifies risks in selecting project managers for civil engineering projects.
problem Lack of awareness of project manager selection criteria and associated risks.
method Combined ANP-FMEA approach for risk analysis.
result ANP-FMEA model identifies more significant risks than traditional FMEA.
A new method prioritizes project risks using Monte Carlo Simulation.
problem Determining the relative importance of project risks.
method Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) for quantitative prioritization.
result Differentiates critical risks based on their impact on project duration and cost.
Teaching tool simplifies Monte Carlo simulation for project risk analysis.
problem Difficulty in students performing Monte Carlo Simulation in risk analysis.
method Introducing MCSimulRisk as a teaching tool.
result Students can perform Monte Carlo simulation and apply it to projects of any complexity.
A new indicator measures project risk from activity durations.
problem Managing project risks throughout the lifecycle.
method Activity Risk Index (ARI) based on Schedule Risk Baseline.
result Identifies activities contributing most to project uncertainty.
Risk, including economic risk, is increasingly a concern for public policy and management. The possibility of dealing effectively with risk is hampered, however, by lack of a sound empirical basis for risk assessment and management. The paper demonstrates the general point for cost and demand risks in urban rail projec…
This report reviews the Edinburgh tram project's risk management. Projects frequently overrun their cost and timelines and fall short on intended benefits. Cost, schedule, and benefit risk of projects need to be carefully considered to avoid this. The report describes and evaluates risk assessment and management for th…
This paper proposes a method to select project schedules with the lowest risk.
problem Selecting schedules that meet project deadlines while minimizing risk.
method Integrating aleatory uncertainty into project scheduling to quantify and compare risks.
result Proposes a method to select schedules with the lowest risk.
Implementing large-scale information and communication technology (IT) projects carries large risks and easily might disrupt operations, waste taxpayers' money, and create negative publicity. Because of the high risks it is important that government leaders manage the attendant risks. We analysed a sample of 1,355 publ…
The globalization feeded by the technology explosion that begans in the end of the last century, started the world to change faster every day. The only today's certain is the tomorrow's uncertain. Risk is defined as uncertain where one or many causes composed of ocurrence probality can generate an impact or consequence…
A major source of risk in project management is inaccurate forecasts of project costs, demand, and other impacts. The paper presents a promising new approach to mitigating such risk, based on theories of decision making under uncertainty which won the 2002 Nobel prize in economics. First, the paper documents inaccuracy…
Deployment of emerging technologies and rapid change in industries has created a lot of risk for initiating the new projects. Many techniques and suggestions have been introduced but still lack the gap from various prospective. This paper proposes a reliable project scheduling approach. The objectives of project schedu…
Introduces PIT-plot for prioritizing projects based on their impact.
problem Optimizing R&D investments in project portfolios.
method Develops a new tool (PIT-plot) focusing on project impact rather than project properties.
result Identifies projects with the largest impact for risk mitigation or value-adding.
All people have to make risky decisions in everyday life. And we do not know how true they are. But is it possible to mathematically assess the correctness of our choice? This article discusses the model of decision making under risk on the example of project management. This is a game with two players, one of which is…
Empirical study finds IT project costs follow a power-law distribution, exposing risk underestimation.
problem IT project cost overruns are underestimated due to normal distribution assumptions.
method Analyzed 5,392 IT projects to examine cost overruns following a power-law distribution.
result IT project cost overruns follow a power-law distribution with a fat tail of extreme overruns.
Study evaluates risk in options using volatility surface projections.
problem Risk assessment of options due to their non-linear price behavior and volatility fluctuations.
method Parametric surface projection method for implied volatility.
result Enhanced risk evaluation through dynamic volatility surface analysis.
This research proposes methods to model and assess liability liquidity risk in asset management.
problem Lack of standardized models for liability liquidity risk in asset management.
method Statistical models, zero-inflated models, aggregate and individual-based approaches, and factor models.
result Developed mathematical and statistical approaches to estimate and assess redemption shocks.
Research proposes a model to estimate transaction costs and assess asset liquidity risk.
problem Lack of standardized models for asset liquidity risk in asset management.
method Develops a market impact model and a two-regime model based on power-law property.
result Defines liquidity measures and applies model to stocks and bonds.
Third part of a study on liquidity risk in asset management, focusing on managing the asset-liability liquidity risk.
problem Managing the asset-liability liquidity risk in asset management.
method Develops a methodological and practical framework for liquidity stress testing programs.
result Proposes measurement, management, and monitoring tools for controlling the liquidity gap.
The paper presents a practical method for evaluating investment projects using real options.
problem Evaluating investment projects under uncertainty and strategic risk management.
method Binomial trees and real options techniques for evaluating investment projects.
result The method can be used for most real options and introduces Project Value at Risk for feasibility.
Study on insurance risk management and sustainable development.
problem Lack of attention to non-climate change aspects of sustainable development in insurance.
method Analysis of recent developments and legislative initiatives in insurance risk management.
result Strategies for small- and medium-sized enterprises to manage sustainable development risks.
Out-of-control information technology (IT) projects have ended the careers of top managers, such as EADS CEO Noel Forgeard and Levi Strauss' CIO David Bergen. Moreover, IT projects have brought down whole companies, like Kmart in the US and Auto Windscreen in the UK. Software and other IT is now such an integral part o…
Paper proposes a method to estimate project cost contingency reserves considering various types of uncertainty.
problem Inaccurate estimation of project cost contingency reserves due to ignoring different types of uncertainty.
method Quantitative determination of project cost contingency reserves using Monte Carlo Simulation considering aleatoric, stochastic, and epistemic uncertainties.
result The proposed method provides more accurate contingency reserves that align with actual project risks.
The paper proposes a dynamic risk measure approach for evaluating defined-contribution pension funds.
problem Periodic evaluation of defined-contribution pension funds to manage risk and improve projections.
method Dynamic risk measure criterion, model-free reinforcement learning, Lee-Carter mortality model.
result Periodic evaluations lead to more risk-averse strategies, while mortality improvements encourage risk-seeking behaviors.
Proposes a new method to rank risky investments based on Omega measure.
problem Evaluating and ranking risky investment projects.
method Introduces an investment certainty equivalence approach and uses the Omega measure.
result Proposed method ranks projects differently from conventional risk-adjusted discount rate (RADR) approach.
Paper introduces a framework for managing cyber risk with insurance and cybersecurity models.
problem Pervasive challenges in managing cyber risk, especially for capital allocation.
method Combines insurance frequency-severity models with cybersecurity cascade models for comprehensive cyber risk assessment. Facilitates informed capital allocation through a two-pillar framework.
result Demonstrates the necessity of comprehensive cost-benefit analysis for budget-constrained companies.
This research develops a dynamic risk management system for industrial companies.
problem Risk assessment and management in industrial enterprises.
method Qualitative and quantitative analysis, systematic risk classification, dynamic system development.
result Effective risk management strategies formed through dynamic risk management system and risk assessment methods.
Research funding agencies routinely use a proportion of their total revenues to support internal administration and marketing costs. The ratio of administration to total costs, referred to as the administration ratio, is highly variable and within any single fund depends on many factors including the number and average…
Framework for managing cyber risks in networks.
problem Managing systemic cyber risks in digital networks.
method Three components: acceptable configurations, risk mitigation interventions, and cost function.
result Effective decision-making for network resilience.
We present a HJM approach to the projection of multiple yield curves developed to capture the volatility content of historical term structures for risk management purposes. Since we observe the empirical data at daily frequency and only for a finite number of time-to-maturity buckets, we propose a modelling framework w…
We consider a contracting problem in which a principal hires an agent to manage a risky project. When the agent chooses volatility components of the output process and the principal observes the output continuously, the principal can compute the quadratic variation of the output, but not the individual components. This…
This paper explores portfolio management strategies to maximize alpha and minimize beta.
problem Maximizing returns while minimizing risk in investment portfolios.
method Examines asset allocation, diversification, active management, and risk management strategies.
result Combining these strategies optimizes portfolio performance.
Credit risk stress tests can misrepresent default probabilities due to inconsistent parameterization.
problem Misleading default probability projections in credit risk stress tests.
method Analysis of credit risk stress testing models and their parameterization.
result Current portfolios tend to align with through-the-cycle portfolios, leading to spurious default rate projections.
Paper proposes real-time risk metrics for stablecoin protocols.
problem Lack of risk management frameworks for stablecoins.
method Developed two risk metrics: capitalization and liquidity.
result Demonstrated practical benefits of real-time on-chain data.
Enhances crowd safety through AI and data-driven models.
problem Improving crowd safety during events.
method Innovative data collection, AI, and machine learning.
result Accurate multi-day forecasts for event planning.
Paper presents a risk management framework for blockchain protocols.
problem Blockchain protocol risks affecting DLT and digital assets.
method Developed a comprehensive risk management framework using traditional taxonomy.
result Structured approach to identify, measure, monitor and report blockchain protocol risks.
This review classifies electricity price models for risk management.
problem Choosing suitable models for risk management in electricity markets.
method Classification of models based on their ability to represent price behavior.
result Helps users select appropriate models for risk management.
The paper examines the feasibility of managing aggregate cyber-risk in IoT environments.
problem Determining sustainable conditions for providing aggregate cyber-risk coverage.
method Developed a rigorous general theory and validated it with real data.
result Conditions for sustainable aggregate cyber-risk management under heavy-tailed distributions.
Risk is part of the fabric of every business; surprisingly, there is little work on establishing best practices for systematic, repeatable risk identification, arguably the first step of any risk management process. In this paper, we present a proposal that constitutes a more holistic risk management approach, a method…
AI-driven framework improves enterprise financial audits and risk identification.
problem Manual auditing is inefficient and limited by data complexity and evolving fraud tactics.
method Machine learning algorithms (SVM, RF, KNN) applied to a dataset of audit project counts, violations, and fraud instances.
result Random Forest achieves best performance with F1-score of 0.9012, identifying fraud and compliance anomalies.
Implied volatilities form a well-known structure of smile or surface which accommodates the Bachelier model and observed market prices of interest rate options. For the swaptions that we study, three parameters are taken into account for indexing the implied volatilities and form a "volatility cube": strike (or moneyne…
Paper discusses how financial institutions' model risk management can benefit academic research.
problem Improving academic research process and mitigating limitations.
method Adopting financial institutions' model risk management practices.
result Lessons from financial institutions can enhance academic research reliability.
Study finds risk management significantly improves pension scheme efficiency in Kenya.
problem Improving efficiency of pension schemes in Kenya.
method Panel data analysis of 128 pension schemes from 2015-2021.
result Risk management significantly mediates the relationship between corporate governance and pension scheme efficiency.
This paper explores how theories of the planning fallacy and the outside view may be used to conduct quality control and due diligence in project management. First, a much-neglected issue in project management is identified, namely that the front-end estimates of costs and benefits--used in the business cases, cost-ben…
This paper proposes a novel PGO framework to optimize systemic risk bailouts using neural networks.
problem Optimal bailout strategies for mitigating systemic risk in financial systems.
method Prediction-Gradient-Optimization (PGO) framework, using neural networks to approximate and forecast the objective function.
result The PGO framework effectively manages systemic risk through online optimization.
Adaptive Bernstein copulas improve risk management by preventing overfitting and reducing simulation effort.
problem Overfitting and high simulation effort in estimating dependence models.
method Constructive approach to Bernstein copulas with an admissible discrete skeleton.
result Comparison of different copula approaches in risk management shows improved accuracy and efficiency.
Paper tackles AI risks by customizing metrics and models.
problem AI risks are multidimensional and immaturely managed.
method Decomposes AI risks into data protection, fairness, etc., and develops metrics and models.
result Customized metrics and models reduce AI risk uncertainty.
A new method for efficient nested Monte Carlo simulations in financial modeling.
problem Computational challenges in nested stochastic modeling for financial risk assessment.
method Sample recycling approach to speed up inner loop estimations.
result Significantly more efficient than traditional techniques.
Paper proposes a new approach to GDPR compliance using data protection analytics.
problem Lack of research on data protection risk management and difficulty in GDPR compliance.
method Quantitative approach to data protection risk-based compliance.
result Improves data protection impact assessments by integrating analytics and expert opinions.