We propose a Monte Carlo simulation method to generate stress tests by VaR scenarios under Solvency II for dependent risks on the basis of observed data. This is of particular interest for the construction of Internal Models and requirements on evaluation processes formulated in the Commission Delegated Regulation. The…
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48 results for “production scenarios”
Scenario Constraints with Memory: A Finite-State Approach to Quantitative Financial Analysisq-fin.CP
A framework for analyzing financial systems under scenario constraints.
problem Quantifying worst-case and best-case performance in financial systems.
method Quantitative automata-based framework integrating event history automata and weighted finance finite automata.
result Exact calculation of upper and lower payoff bounds with interpretable witness event histories.
User response prediction is a crucial component for personalized information retrieval and filtering scenarios, such as recommender system and web search. The data in user response prediction is mostly in a multi-field categorical format and transformed into sparse representations via one-hot encoding. Due to the spars…
In this paper, we present the principal components of an economic scenario generator (ESG), both for the theoretical design and for practical implementation. The choice of these components should be linked to the ultimate vocation of the economic scenario generator, which can be either a tool for pricing financial prod…
Study on kernel regression risk in high dimensions using Pinsker bound.
problem Kernel regression risk in high-dimensional inner product spaces.
method Investigation of Pinsker bound for kernel regression on sphere with sample size .
result Exact minimax risk and Pinsker constant identified for kernel regression.
Study optimal incentives for cleaner energy production.
problem Accelerate transition to cleaner technologies in energy market.
method Stochastic control models for three scenarios: single firm, two firms, and two firms without incentives.
result Optimal strategies for investment and production emerge, highlighting firm interactions and incentive effects.
Eigenvalue bounds for forms on warped manifolds studied.
problem Eigenvalue bounds for differential forms on warped product manifolds.
method Geometric eigenvalue bounds in warped product manifolds with non-negative Ricci curvature and strictly convex boundary.
result Escobar type lower bounds and sharp bounds for specific cases.
TXtract extracts structured knowledge from thousands of product categories.
problem Extracting structured knowledge from diverse product categories in e-commerce.
method TXtract uses a taxonomy-aware model with category conditional self-attention and multi-task learning.
result TXtract outperforms state-of-the-art approaches by up to 10% in F1 and 15% in coverage across all categories.
Develops a method for probabilistic simulation of renewable energy production at grid scale.
problem Uncertainty in short-term electricity generation from renewable assets.
method Probabilistic framework with asset calibration, hierarchical clustering, and Gaussianization.
result Full uncertainty quantification at asset and collection levels.
Low redispatch prices boost green hydrogen production cost, encouraging electrolyzer siting.
problem Uncertainty in redispatch power availability and its impact on green hydrogen production cost.
method Historic redispatch time series analysis and power purchase scenarios evaluation.
result Low price levels can lead to notable production cost reductions, incentivizing electrolyzer siting.
The purpose of this study is to estimate the production function and examine the structure of production in the mining sector of Iran. Several studies have already been conducted in estimating production functions of various economic sectors; however, less attention has been paid to mining sectors. After examining the …
This study analyzes how carbon pricing affects credit risk measures in a portfolio.
problem Impact of carbon pricing on credit risk measures in a portfolio.
method Adapted stochastic multisectoral model to account for GHG emissions costs and carbon prices.
result Carbon pricing distorts firm value distributions, increases banking fees, and reduces profitability.
Unified framework for tractable inference scenarios in machine learning models.
problem Complex inference scenarios in machine learning models.
method Characterization of tractable modular operations over circuits and derivation of a unified framework.
result Unified framework for reasoning about tractable models.
Study analyzes impacts of COVID-19 on French forestry sector, finds mixed results in supply chain.
problem Impact of COVID-19 on forestry sector supply chain and future opportunities.
method Integrated methodology combining Material Flow Analysis and Wood Product Model.
result Significant disruptions and shifts in wood production, highlighting resilience and vulnerabilities.
Regional Oil Extraction and Consumption: A simple production model for the next 35 years Part Iphysics.soc-ph
The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately, studies from only 10 years ago, which tried to forecast the oil production during …
LineFlow is a framework for training RL agents to control production lines.
problem Designing control systems for production lines is challenging.
method Introduces LineFlow, an extensible Python framework for simulating and training RL agents.
result RL agents approach optimal performance in well-understood scenarios but face challenges in complex industrial lines.
In this paper we propose a novel Bayesian methodology for Value-at-Risk computation based on parametric Product Partition Models. Value-at-Risk is a standard tool to measure and control the market risk of an asset or a portfolio, and it is also required for regulatory purposes. Its popularity is partly due to the fact …
There are clear benefits associated with a particular consumer choice for many current markets. For example, as we consider here, some products might carry environmental or `green' benefits. Some consumers might value these benefits while others do not. However, as evidenced by myriad failed attempts of environmental p…
Response of Firm Agent Network to Exogenous Shockphysics.soc-ph
This paper describes an agent-based model of interacting firms, in which interacting firm agents rationally invest capital and labor in order to maximize payoff. Both transactions and production are taken into account in this model. First, the performance of individual firms on a real transaction network was simulated.…
A new active learning strategy for real-time data in production.
problem High annotation costs and time required for quality inspections of unlabeled data.
method A stream-based active learning approach using optimal experimental design theory.
result The proposed algorithm allows for faster reduction in prediction error.
We analyze four structured products that have caused severe losses to investors in recent years. These products are: return optimization securities, yield magnet notes, reverse exchangeable securities, and principal-protected notes. We describe the basic structure of these products, analyze them probabilistically using…
Hedging methods to mitigate the exposure of variable annuity products to market risks require the calculation of market risk sensitivities (or "Greeks"). The complex, path-dependent nature of these products means these sensitivities typically must be estimated by Monte Carlo simulation. Standard market practice is to m…
Production forecasting is a key step to design the future development of a reservoir. A classical way to generate such forecasts consists in simulating future production for numerical models representative of the reservoir. However, identifying such models can be very challenging as they need to be constrained to all a…
Recently developed machine learning techniques, in association with the Internet of Things (IoT) allow for the implementation of a method of increasing oil production from heavy-oil wells. Steam flood injection, a widely used enhanced oil recovery technique, uses thermal and gravitational potential to mobilize and dilu…
Equivalent tests for SGD batch size selection found.
problem Finding equivalent tests for adaptive batch size selection in SGD.
method Norm and inner product/orthogonality tests equivalence demonstration.
result Norm and inner product/orthogonality tests are equivalent under specific conditions.
Retail company uses Prophet algorithm for accurate sales forecasting.
problem Accurate sales forecasting in the retail industry.
method Facebook's Prophet algorithm and backtesting strategy.
result Framework demonstrates real-world use case capabilities.
Method identifies potential customers from limited data.
problem Efficiently market products to interested but non-loyal customers.
method Double Positive and Unlabeled (PU) learning approach.
result Proposed algorithm achieves efficient marketing.
Fast ML framework for derivative valuation from volatility surfaces.
problem Derivative valuation from complex volatility surfaces.
method Parameterized SVI model, synthetic market scenarios, Gaussian Process Regressor.
result Very accurate and fast (3-4 orders of magnitude) derivative valuations.
We analyse Ricci flow (normalised/un-normalised) of product manifolds --unwarped as well as warped, through a study of generic examples. First, we investigate such flows for the unwarped scenario with manifolds of the type , , …
Paper proposes new gradient codes for robust distributed machine learning.
problem Robustness against slow machines (stragglers) in distributed machine learning.
method Constructs gradient codes based on probabilistic and Kronecker product methods.
result Gradient codes exist for a wide range of system parameters with comparable error performance.
Detects harmful shifts without labels for model performance.
problem Detecting distribution shifts without access to labels.
method Uses a proxy derived from predictions of an error estimator.
result High power and false alarm control under various shifts.
Sayer uses implicit feedback to optimize system policies.
problem Leveraging implicit feedback to improve system policies is difficult due to bias and incompleteness.
method Sayer combines randomized exploration and unbiased counterfactual estimators to evaluate and train new policies using implicit feedback.
result Sayer can accurately evaluate and train new policies that outperform existing ones.
In this paper we look at two naturally occurring situations where the following question arises. When one can find a metric so that a Chern-Weil form can be represented by a given form ? The first setting is semi-stable Hartshorne-ample vector bundles on complex surfaces where we provide evidence for a conjecture of Gr…
Proposes a comprehensive framework for financial product lead recommendations using graph representation learning and link prediction.
problem Challenges in surface lead recommendations for financial products due to changing market scenarios and difficulty in capturing holder's mindset.
method Bi-partite graph representation of financial holders and funds, GraphSage model for learning representations, link prediction model for ranking recommendations.
result The proposed graph ML solution outperforms baseline by 42%, 22%, and 14% in hit rate for top-k recommendations (50, 100, 200) and 18%, 19%, and 18% on unseen holders.
Scalable model for slate recommendation learns reward probabilities.
problem Scalable personalized slate recommendation in large action spaces.
method Probabilistic Rank and Reward (PRR) model combining reward, interaction, and rank.
result PRR outperforms existing methods and is scalable to large action spaces.
Robust forecast framework reduces distribution error by 63%.
problem Accurate distribution forecast for planning decisions.
method Backtest-based bootstrap and adaptive residual selection.
result Reduces Absolute Coverage Error by more than 63%.
Multi-Armed Bandit Strategies for Non-Stationary Reward Distributions and Delayed Feedback Processescs.LG
A survey is performed of various Multi-Armed Bandit (MAB) strategies in order to examine their performance in circumstances exhibiting non-stationary stochastic reward functions in conjunction with delayed feedback. We run several MAB simulations to simulate an online eCommerce platform for grocery pick up, optimizing …
The paper introduces and studies a new type of submersion in Riemannian geometry.
problem Exploring new submersions in Riemannian geometry.
method Defining and studying Clairaut Riemannian warped product submersions.
result Established conditions for a Riemannian warped product submersion to satisfy the Clairaut condition.
This paper advances theory on the process of collaboration between entities and its implications on the quality of services, information, and/or products (SIPs) that the collaborating entities provide to each other. It investigates the scenario of outsourced IS projects (such as custom software development) where the e…
Hierarchical clustering has been shown to be valuable in many scenarios. Despite its usefulness to many situations, there is no agreed methodology on how to properly evaluate the hierarchies produced from different techniques, particularly in the case where ground-truth labels are unavailable. This motivates us to prop…
In large scale systems, approximate nearest neighbour search is a crucial algorithm to enable efficient data retrievals. Recently, deep learning-based hashing algorithms have been proposed as a promising paradigm to enable data dependent schemes. Often their efficacy is only demonstrated on data sets with fixed, limite…
Graph neural networks-based Scheduler for Production planning problems using Reinforcement Learningcs.LG
GraSP-RL uses graph neural networks to improve job shop scheduling.
problem Capturing machine-unit-job sequence relationships and managing state space growth.
method Graph neural networks for feature extraction, reinforcement learning for decision-making, decentralized optimization.
result GraSP-RL outperforms existing methods in minimizing makespan for complex production environments.
This paper examines fundamental error characteristics for a general class of matrix completion problems, where the matrix of interest is a product of two a priori unknown matrices, one of which is sparse, and the observations are noisy. Our main contributions come in the form of minimax lower bounds for the expected pe…
GPU-accelerates multiuser detection for 5G URLLC systems.
problem Efficiently detecting payloads in OFDM frames with ultra-low latency.
method Implemented partially linear multiuser detection in RKHSs on a GPU-accelerated platform.
result Sub-millisecond latency detection in 5G URLLC systems.
We propose in this work a kinetic wealth-exchange model of economic growth by introducing saving as a non consumed fraction of production. In this new model, which starts also from microeconomic arguments, it is found that economic transactions between pairs of agents leads the system to a macroscopic behavior where to…
Risk Advisor predicts and mitigates ML deployment failures.
problem Predicting and mitigating test-time failure risks of ML systems.
method Post-hoc meta-learner for estimating failure risks and uncertainties.
result Reliably predicts deployment-time failure risks across various ML models.
Tool converts industrial systems to RL environments for optimization.
problem Lack of RL methods for optimizing industrial systems.
method Develops a tool to convert FSM models to OpenAI Gym wrappers.
result Traditional RL methods can be applied to industrial systems.
TPBS models improve robustness to overfitting with localized Dirichlet energy regularization.
problem Global Dirichlet energy-based regularization fails for TPBS models due to perfect interpolation.
method Propose local Dirichlet energy regularization and two inference estimators.
result TPBS models outperform neural networks in overfitting regimes and maintain competitive performance otherwise.