New method calibrates Gaussian product experts for better predictions.
problem Erratic predictions and uncalibrated uncertainty in Gaussian product experts.
method Calibration via tempered softmax and Wasserstein barycenter for predictions.
result Improved predictions with better mean and uncertainty quantification.
Predicting the future evolution of complex systems is one of the main challenges in complexity science. Based on a current snapshot of a network, link prediction algorithms aim to predict its future evolution. We apply here link prediction algorithms to data on the international trade between countries. This data can b…
Modified deep LSTM model with EnKF improves gas flow rate predictions in mature gas wells.
problem Predicting gas production from mature gas wells with high accuracy and robustness.
method Modified deep LSTM model for flow rate prediction and EnKF for updating predictions.
result EnKF updated model leads to better flow predictions with lower Jeffreys' J-divergences.
The paper develops AI methods to predict weather-sensitive product sales.
problem Lack of accurate demand prediction for weather-sensitive products.
method Artificial Neural Networks applied to historical Walmart sales data.
result Improved demand prediction for weather-sensitive products.
Model predicts capital flow and product share dynamics in international trade.
problem Understanding how capital flows between different industrial sectors affects product shares in international trade.
method Stochastic transfer model based on observed scaling relations.
result Model accurately predicts the distribution of product shares and identifies capital condensation.
The growing conflicts in and about oil exporting regions and speculations about volatile oil prices during the last decade have renewed the public interest in predictions for the near future oil production and consumption. Unfortunately, studies from only 10 years ago, which tried to forecast the oil production during …
Paper proposes PNN and PIN models for better user response prediction.
problem User response prediction in multi-field categorical data with sparse representations.
method Kernel product for field-aware feature interactions, Product-based Neural Network (PNN) for DNN-based models, and Product-network In Network (PIN) for generalization.
result PNN and PIN models consistently outperform 8 baselines on AUC and log loss.
The paper uses ML to predict oil rate post-HF, comparing it to engineers' predictions.
problem Predicting oil rate post-hydraulic fracturing.
method Data-driven model using ML techniques on fracturing job data.
result ML predictions outperform engineers' predictions.
Deep neural network predicts product returns before purchase.
problem High costs of handling returned fashion products.
method Bayesian Personalized Ranking (BPR) embeddings and skip-gram model for user and product features.
result Reduced overall returns through real-time return probability prediction.
Framework for monitoring ML model performance in production without labels.
problem Monitoring real-time prediction quality of ML models in production without labels.
method ML Health framework using diagnostic methods to generate alerts for further investigation.
result The method outperforms standard distance metrics at detecting issues with mismatched data sets.
Labor productivity in Turkey, Spain, Belgium, Austria, Switzerland, and New Zealand has been analyzed and modeled. These counties extend the previously analyzed set of the US, UK, Japan, France, Italy, and Canada. Modelling is based on the link between the rate of labor participation and real GDP per capita. New result…
The paper tackles imbalance in production data by proposing sampling methods to improve model performance on underrepresented observations.
problem Imbalance in production data negatively impacts model predictive performance on underrepresented observations.
method Three sampling approaches are investigated to adjust for imbalance in training data and improve model performance.
result Fitting a model using sampled data yields a small reduction in overall predictive performance but a better performance on underrepresented observations.
Paper aims to improve relevance of e-commerce search results.
problem Improving relevance of online product search results.
method Combines machine learning, NLP, and IR techniques to predict relevance scores.
result Deep learning models outperform conventional IR models in relevance prediction.
The study improves CLV predictions in retail banking with machine learning.
problem Estimating customer lifetime value in retail banking is challenging.
method Developed a novel framework for CLV predictions over arbitrary time horizons.
result 43% improvement in out-of-time CLV prediction error.
The paper proposes a machine learning approach for production forecasting without model calibration.
problem Generating accurate production forecasts for reservoir development.
method Sequential model aggregation using machine learning algorithms without model calibration.
result The proposed method provides robust multi-step-ahead production forecasts.
Improved sales forecasting for new products using transfer learning.
problem Insufficient training data for new products leads to inaccurate sales forecasts.
method Network-based Transfer Learning approach for deep neural networks.
result Deep neural networks' prediction accuracy for food sales forecasting can be effectively increased.
The study optimizes supply chain management through a dice-based model to predict cleaner production.
problem Uncertainty in supply chain management and economic predictions.
method A 4-component SC module (environmental, demand, economic, social uncertainties) ranked by weight, using Analytical Hierarchical Process and optimization of a weighted cost function.
result Identifies conditions validating the sustainability of a business venture and optimizes market uncertainty.
This study finds ESG rating disagreement reduces corporate productivity, especially in certain types of firms.
problem The impact of ESG rating disagreement on corporate productivity.
method Analysis of A-share listed companies data from 2015 to 2022 using XGBoost regression and SHAP.
result ESG rating disagreement reduces corporate productivity, especially in certain types of firms.
THieF improves day-ahead electricity price prediction accuracy by reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting day-ahead electricity prices.
method Temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) reconciling hourly and block forecasts.
result THieF significantly improves accuracy (up to 13%) at all levels of prediction.
Paper tackles circularity issues in machine learning predictions.
problem Circularity problems in machine learning predictions.
method Not specified in the abstract.
result Not specified in the abstract.
Proposes a comprehensive framework for financial product lead recommendations using graph representation learning and link prediction.
problem Challenges in surface lead recommendations for financial products due to changing market scenarios and difficulty in capturing holder's mindset.
method Bi-partite graph representation of financial holders and funds, GraphSage model for learning representations, link prediction model for ranking recommendations.
result The proposed graph ML solution outperforms baseline by 42%, 22%, and 14% in hit rate for top-k recommendations (50, 100, 200) and 18%, 19%, and 18% on unseen holders.
Predicts edit survival in peer-production systems.
problem Predicting the survival of edits in large-scale peer-production systems.
method Modeling edit survival as a game between editor skill, component difficulty, and user-component interaction.
result Model significantly outperforms user reputation-based methods and specialized predictors.
Rating platforms enable large-scale collection of user opinion about items (products, other users, etc.). However, many untrustworthy users give fraudulent ratings for excessive monetary gains. In the paper, we present FairJudge, a system to identify such fraudulent users. We propose three metrics: (i) the fairness of …
E-commerce system predicts customer interest in sequentially ordered products.
problem Modeling customer interest in sequentially ordered products.
method Embed purchased items with Word2Vec and model the sequence with LSTM RNN.
result The recommender system outperforms its predecessor in click-through rate.
Model predicts epileptic seizures with high accuracy using EEG signals.
problem Predicting epileptic seizures with high accuracy for diagnosis and treatment.
method Pearson's product-moment correlation coefficient with a linear classifier on generalized Gaussian modeling.
result 100% effectiveness for sensitivity and specificity greater than 83%.
A fast algorithm speeds up training of pairwise kernels.
problem Training pairwise kernels efficiently for large datasets.
method Generalized vec trick for Kronecker product kernels.
result Pairwise kernels can be expressed as sums of Kronecker products.
The paper proposes a machine learning technique to optimize prices in fashion e-commerce.
problem Optimizing prices for millions of products in fashion e-commerce to maximize revenue and profit.
method Demand prediction, price elasticity, multiple price demand pairs, linear programming optimization.
result The model improved revenue by 1% and gross margin by 0.81% in AB tests.
Production networks amplify economic growth through technology diffusion.
problem Understanding how technology improvements propagate through production networks.
method Analyzing a production network model to study the effects of technological improvements.
result Longer production chains lead to faster price reduction and GDP growth.
The study finds cash productivity predicts stock performance in a specific subset of firms.
problem Predicting future stock performance using cash productivity.
method Using financial and market data, calculated cash returns as a proxy for operational efficiency, and tested a long-only strategy on Nasdaq-listed non-financial firms.
result Cash productivity has significant predictive power in a handpicked portfolio but limited across the broader Nasdaq universe.
Model predicts competition between similar products in sales.
problem Predicting cannibalization between similar products in sales.
method Developed a neural network model that computes a 'competitiveness' function based on product features.
result The model outperforms traditional methods in predicting market share.
AI agent predicts industry and product/service codes for companies.
problem Manual curation of company data is expensive and prone to errors.
method Hierarchical multi-class industry code classifier with multi-label product/service code classifier.
result High accuracy (92-96%) achieved with limited labeled data.
Improved conversion prediction for B2B products using collective online activity trails.
problem Limited information from single user activity trails for B2B ad targeting.
method Introduced relevant users concept and used distributed activity representations to build seed lists.
result Improved conversion prediction AUC by 8.8% using collective activity trails.
The DeepSurv model predicts purchase timing better than other survival models.
problem Predicting the exact purchase timing of consumers.
method Survival models (Kernel SVM, DeepSurv, Survival Random Forest, MTLR) were compared using various consumer attributes.
result DeepSurv model outperformed other models in predicting purchase completion.
Machine learning predicts plasma etching equipment failures.
problem Predicting unscheduled breakdowns of plasma etching equipment.
method Three machine learning tasks: TTF prediction, health state prediction, and TTF intervals.
result Trained machine learning models outperform human judgments in all tasks.
Which song will Smith listen to next? Which restaurant will Alice go to tomorrow? Which product will John click next? These applications have in common the prediction of user trajectories that are in a constant state of flux over a hidden network (e.g. website links, geographic location). What users are doing now may b…
DeRisk improves credit risk prediction using deep learning.
problem Challenges in training deep neural networks with real-world financial data.
method DeRisk, an effective deep learning framework for credit risk prediction.
result DeRisk outperforms statistical learning methods in credit risk prediction.
Proposes a novel approach using vector cross product to preserve directional edges in directed graphs.
problem Preserving directional edges in directed graphs for tasks like link prediction and node recommendation.
method Integrates the non-commutative property of vector cross product into a Siamese neural network to learn N-dimensional embeddings.
result Low-dimensional embeddings effectively preserve directional properties and outperform state-of-the-art methods.
Machine learning and IoT improve steam flood oil production.
problem Optimizing oil production from heavy-oil wells using steam floods.
method Cutting-edge machine learning techniques applied to time-series IoT data.
result 3% improvement in oil production with optimized steam allocation.
The paper proposes a demand prediction model for e-commerce sites using machine learning and stacking.
problem Accurately predicting demand for products sold by multiple sellers at different prices.
method Applied different regression algorithms and stacked generalization for demand prediction.
result Stacked generalization produced almost as good results as individual machine learning methods.
We present a new Monte-Carlo methodology to forecast the crude oil production of Norway and the U.K. based on a two-step process, (i) the nonlinear extrapolation of the current/past performances of individual oil fields and (ii) a stochastic model of the frequency of future oil field discoveries. Compared with the stan…
CDLF predicts product life-cycles in cold-start phases with high accuracy.
problem Forecasting new products in early phases when data is scarce.
method Conditional Diffusion Life-cycle Forecaster (CDLF) combining static descriptors, reference trajectories, and new observations.
result CDLF outperforms classical models in accuracy and probabilistic forecasting.
Data mining involves the systematic analysis of large data sets, and data mining in agricultural soil datasets is exciting and modern research area. The productive capacity of a soil depends on soil fertility. Achieving and maintaining appropriate levels of soil fertility, is of utmost importance if agricultural land i…
Attention improves edge prediction in e-commerce graphs.
problem Predicting edges in graphs from node attributes in e-commerce.
method Used attention mechanism in simple feedforward networks, derived analytically tractable model AttEST.
result Attention network outperforms LSTM architectures by over 20% on F-1 score.
In this work, we propose a generalized product of experts (gPoE) framework for combining the predictions of multiple probabilistic models. We identify four desirable properties that are important for scalability, expressiveness and robustness, when learning and inferring with a combination of multiple models. Through a…
Deep learning predicts mismatched ratings in Amazon reviews.
problem Identifying reviews with mismatched ratings on Amazon.
method Converted reviews to vectors using paragraph vector, trained a recurrent neural network with gated recurrent unit, incorporated semantic relationships.
result Model accurately predicts rating mismatches and provides feedback.
The energy transition is well underway in most European countries. It has a growing impact on electric power systems as it dramatically modifies the way electricity is produced. To ensure a safe and smooth transition towards a pan-European electricity production dominated by renewable sources, it is of paramount import…
Labor productivity in developed countries is analyzed and modeled. Modeling is based on our previous finding that the rate of labor force participation is a unique function of GDP per capita. Therefore, labor productivity is fully determined by the rate of economic growth, and thus, is a secondary economic variable. In…
A new metric optimizes forecasts for lumpy, intermittent demand.
problem Inaccurate demand forecasts lead to suboptimal logistics and production.
method Developed a novel metric that considers both statistical and business aspects.
result The new metric yields more accurate predictions for lumpy and intermittent demand.