Estimates class posterior probabilities without using scores from classifiers.
problem Estimating class posterior probabilities for new points in classification tasks.
method Varying prior probabilities to derive the ratio of pdf's at point x, directly determining class posterior probabilities.
result A method to estimate posterior probabilities without relying on classification scores.
Paper optimizes combining expert predictions using CRPS loss.
problem Optimizing combining expert predictions in online learning.
method Combines probabilistic forecasts using CRPS loss function in the prediction with expert advice framework.
result Time-independent upper bound for the regret of the Vovk's aggregating algorithm using CRPS as a loss function is obtained.
A new machine learning model uses score matching to estimate probability densities efficiently.
problem Estimating probability density functions is challenging.
method Introduced a product Jacobi-Theta Boltzmann machine (pJTBM) and used score matching for efficient fitting.
result The pJTBM can fit probability densities more efficiently than the RTBM using score matching.
New method for generating images with conditional probability models.
problem Generating images with specific conditions.
method Score-based diffusion models with theoretical analysis and new estimator.
result New estimator for conditional score performs similarly to state-of-the-art.
New scoring rules for multivariate distributions and level sets.
problem Evaluating forecast accuracy for multivariate distributions and level sets.
method Theoretical framework for scoring rules, decomposition of multivariate scoring functions, numerical algorithm for computation.
result New scoring functions for multivariate distributions and level sets, including density and cumulative distribution level sets.
The article reviews scoring rules for estimating and evaluating forecasts.
problem Evaluating probabilistic forecasts and estimating probability distributions.
method Mathematical foundations and characterization of scoring rules.
result Important families of scoring rules and their applications in statistics and machine learning.
Study optimizes tree-based models for better alignment of predicted scores and actual probabilities.
problem Traditional calibration metrics fail to align predicted scores with actual probabilities when score distributions deviate from the underlying data.
method Optimizes tree-based models (Random Forest, XGBoost) using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to minimize the difference between predicted and true probability distributions.
result Optimized tree-based models yield superior alignment between predicted scores and actual probabilities without significant performance loss.
Paper develops consistent estimation of propensity scores for rare exposures.
problem Estimation of propensity score functions for rare exposures in oversampled cohorts.
method Flexible computational implementation using source population probability of exposure and observation weighting.
result Low empirical bias and variance for consistent propensity score function estimators.
Paper analyzes convergence of ODE samplers in Wasserstein distances.
problem Limited theoretical understanding of convergence properties of probability flow ODEs.
method Convergence analysis for general probability flow ODEs in 2-Wasserstein distance.
result First non-asymptotic convergence analysis for probability flow ODE samplers.
Bi-Lipschitz flows approximate a wide range of distributions.
problem Characterizing the expressivity of bi-Lipschitz normalizing flows.
method Linking score regularity to transport map bi-Lipschitzness via probability flow ODE.
result Gaussian pullbacks induced by bi-Lipschitz variance-preserving transport maps are L1-dense among all probability densities. New method estimates grouping loss in neural networks to improve confidence scores.
problem Improving confidence scores in neural networks to reflect true posterior probabilities.
method Proposed an estimator to approximate the grouping loss.
result Modern neural networks exhibit grouping loss, especially in distribution shifts.
Reduces quantifier variance with accuracy optimization of base classifier.
problem Minimizing quantifier variance under prior probability shift.
method Optimizes the Brier score of a base classifier for training data.
result Optimizing Brier score on training data reduces quantifier variance on test data.
The consultative papers for the Basel II Accord require rating systems to provide a ranking of obligors in the sense that the rating categories indicate the creditworthiness in terms of default probabilities. As a consequence, the default probabilities ought to present a monotonous function of the ordered rating catego…
The paper investigates how calibrating propensity scores improves DML estimates of average treatment effects.
problem Improving the accuracy of DML estimates in finite samples.
method Propensity score calibration within the Double/debiased machine learning framework.
result Calibrating propensity scores reduces the root mean squared error of DML estimates of average treatment effects in finite samples.
The article compares neural networks and logistic regression for credit scoring and introduces a new probability calibration technique.
problem Improving credit scoring accuracy using machine learning techniques.
method Comparison of logistic regression and neural networks, feature importance assessment, temporal feature inclusion, and SURE probability calibration.
result Neural networks can slightly improve credit scoring performance, and SURE calibration technique enhances probability calibration.
Focal loss improves classification but not class-posterior probability estimation.
problem Improving class-posterior probability estimation from focal loss.
method Proved classification-calibration and derived a transformation to recover true class-posterior probabilities.
result A transformation of the confidence score from focal loss minimization allows recovery of true class-posterior probabilities.
Binary classification is highly used in credit scoring in the estimation of probability of default. The validation of such predictive models is based both on rank ability, and also on calibration (i.e. how accurately the probabilities output by the model map to the observed probabilities). In this study we cover the cu…
This paper addresses issues with the Brier score in administrative censoring scenarios.
problem Problems with the Brier score in administrative censoring scenarios.
method Proposes an alternative Brier score for administratively censored data.
result The administrative Brier score is valid even when censoring times can be identified from covariates.
A new method for estimating density ratios in high dimensions.
problem Difficulty in accurately comparing probability distributions in high-dimensional settings.
method Divide-and-conquer approach via an infinite continuum of bridge distributions and time score matching.
result The proposed method effectively estimates density ratios and performs well on complex datasets.
Paper connects neural network score approximation to reverse diffusion model distribution approximation.
problem Quantifying the relationship between neural network score approximation and the distribution generated by reverse diffusion models.
method Combines Hornik's universal approximation theorem, Girsanov's theorem, and data processing inequality.
result Neural network score approximation guarantees distribution approximation in reverse diffusion models.
Post-calibration improves the accuracy of causal effect estimation.
problem Improperly calibrated propensity scores lead to inaccurate causal effect estimation.
method Performed a simulation study to assess the impact of post-calibration on causal effect estimation.
result Post-calibration reduces the error in estimating the average treatment effect, especially for expressive uncalibrated statistical estimators.
Study evaluates multivariate forecasting scoring rules and proposes new copula-based ones.
problem Evaluating and improving multivariate probabilistic forecasting methods.
method Analysis and comparison of existing scoring rules, development of copula-based scoring rules, simulation studies, and real data analysis.
result Proposed copula-based scoring rules provide strong distinction between models with correct and incorrect dependency structures.
The paper improves the probability flow ODE sampler for faster sampling of natural images.
problem Improving the convergence rate of the probability flow ODE sampler.
method Adapting the probability flow ODE sampler to exploit intrinsic low-dimensional structures in natural image data.
result Achieves a dimension-free convergence rate of O(k/T) in total variation distance, improving upon existing results. Paper analyzes SGMs for learning sub-Gaussian distributions without dimensionality constraints.
problem Learning sub-Gaussian distributions in high dimensions with SGMs.
method Introduced complexity notion and proved approximation and generalization rates.
result SGMs can approximate target sub-Gaussian distributions in total variation with dimension-independent rate.
Paper optimizes score transformation for fair binary classification.
problem Ensuring fairness in binary classification with predicted scores.
method Formulates and solves a convex optimization problem for transforming scores to meet fairness constraints.
result Derives a closed-form expression for optimal transformed scores and provides guarantees for finite sample settings.
Improves reliability diagrams for probabilistic forecasts.
problem Lack of stability in reliability diagrams hampered their use.
method CORP approach using non-parametric isotonic regression and PAV algorithm.
result Improved reliability diagrams with statistical consistency and reproducibility.
Proposes a new method to minimize non-singleton predictions in conformal prediction.
problem Large prediction sets in conformal prediction are costly and inefficient.
method Introduces a new nonconformity score to minimize non-singleton sets and provides an algorithm to compute it efficiently.
result The proposed Singleton-Optimized Conformal Prediction (SOCOP) method increases singleton frequency by over 20% compared to standard scores, with minimal impact on average set size.
New test assesses probabilistic model calibration without expensive approximations.
problem Assessing calibration of probabilistic models with scores.
method Kernel Calibration Conditional Stein Discrepancy (KCCSD) test using new score-based kernels.
result Control over type-I error with improved scalability and efficiency.
Paper evaluates CRPS for extreme event forecasts, finding it unsuitable.
problem Verifying probabilistic forecasts of extreme events is challenging.
method Formal framework using extreme value theory to assess CRPS as a random variable.
result CRPS is unsuitable for extreme event verification.
New approach to score function in diffusion models using Malliavin calculus.
problem Estimating score function for complex data distributions.
method Combines Malliavin calculus with Bismut-type formula to derive exact score function expression.
result Derives exact, closed-form expression for score function in diffusion models.
We give a new consistent scoring function for structure learning of Bayesian networks. In contrast to traditional approaches to score-based structure learning, such as BDeu or MDL, the complexity penalty that we propose is data-dependent and is given by the probability that a conditional independence test correctly sho…
There has been much recent interest in application of the pool-adjacent-violators (PAV) algorithm for the purpose of calibrating the probabilistic outputs of automatic pattern recognition and machine learning algorithms. Special cost functions, known as proper scoring rules form natural objective functions to judge the…
This paper argues against using calibration metrics for assessing posterior probabilities and proposes expected proper scoring rules instead.
problem The assessment of posterior probabilities generated by machine learning classifiers using calibration metrics is flawed and should be replaced with expected proper scoring rules.
method The paper reviews proper scoring rules from a practical perspective, explains why expected PSRs are a principled measure of posterior quality, and introduces a new calibration metric called calibration loss.
result Calibration loss is superior to expected calibration error and expected score divergence calibration metrics for assessing posterior probabilities.
The paper introduces new measures for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning.
problem Uncertainty representation and quantification in machine learning.
method Proper scoring rules for aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty quantification.
result Established a natural bridge between credal set and second-order distribution representations of uncertainty.
Improved uncertainty estimates for classification models reduce calibration error.
problem Lack of calibrated uncertainty estimates in modern deep learning models.
method Restricting predictions to Top-1 error probabilities to improve calibration.
result Calibration error decreased to less than 1%.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
problem Real-time evaluation and player assessment in team sports.
method Continuous dominance indicator (T-score) and T-process formulation.
result Decomposes competitive advantage into interpretable statistical components.
Improves robustness of propensity score estimators in challenging settings.
problem Limited overlap, small sample sizes, or unbalanced data.
method Extends calibration techniques for propensity score models, focusing on sample-splitting schemes.
result Calibration reduces variance and bias in inverse probability weighting and double/debiased machine learning frameworks.
CTM improves diffusion model sampling quality with efficient ODE traversal.
problem Lack of natural trade-off between sample quality and speed in consistency models.
method CTM trains a neural network to output scores and traverse ODE trajectories efficiently.
result CTM achieves state-of-the-art FIDs and improves sample quality with increased computational budget.
Proposes methods to estimate posterior probability and propensity score functions without assuming constant propensity score.
problem Learning from biased positive-unlabeled data.
method Parametric approach to joint estimation of posterior probability and propensity score functions using maximum likelihood and alternating maximization.
result Proposed methods are comparable or better than existing methods based on Expectation-Maximisation scheme.
Recently several researchers have investigated techniques for using data to learn Bayesian networks containing compact representations for the conditional probability distributions (CPDs) stored at each node. The majority of this work has concentrated on using decision-tree representations for the CPDs. In addition, re…
This paper investigates two feature-scoring criteria that make use of estimated class probabilities: one method proposed by \citet{shen} and a complementary approach proposed below. We develop a theoretical framework to analyze each criterion and show that both estimate the spread (across all values of a given feature)…
Proposes a neural network method to combine nonprobability and probability survey samples.
problem Combining nonprobability and probability survey samples for accurate population mean estimation.
method Uses a deep neural network to estimate sampling scores from nonprobability samples and combines them with probability sample information.
result Proposed estimators improve robustness to parametric propensity-score misspecification, especially for nonlinear selection mechanisms.
Study on estimating class probabilities using empirical risk minimization.
problem Estimating class probabilities within binary classification.
method Empirical risk minimization (ERM) for class probability estimation.
result The estimator converges to true class probabilities under certain conditions.
We propose a theoretical framework for thinking about score normalization, which confirms that normalization is not needed under (admittedly fragile) ideal conditions. If, however, these conditions are not met, e.g. under data-set shift between training and runtime, our theory reveals dependencies between scores that c…
Optimal score function estimation via empirical risk minimization
problem Estimating the score function of a probability measure on the flat torus from a sample
method Constraining the hypothesis space to a Sobolev ball
result Minimax estimation rates are achieved
Study compares two methods for predicting extreme atmospheric events.
problem Forecasting threshold exceedances of atmospheric variables like temperature and wind speed.
method Direct vs. full distribution probabilistic methods for rare events.
result Full distribution approach outperforms direct method for extreme events.
New measure corrects news bias in NLP stock return forecasting.
problem Improving stock return and volatility forecasting accuracy.
method Hype-Adjusted Probability Measure, sentiment score equation.
result Significantly improved forecast accuracy for U.S. semiconductor tickers.
In this paper, we consider the problem of column subset selection. We present a novel analysis of the spectral norm reconstruction for a simple randomized algorithm and establish a new bound that depends explicitly on the sampling probabilities. The sampling dependent error bound (i) allows us to better understand the …