Two BO methods improve reliability optimization for rare failures.
problem Maximizing reliability of designs subject to random perturbations.
method Bayesian optimization with Thompson sampling and knowledge gradient.
result Proposed methods outperform existing techniques in extreme failure probability scenarios.
Improves reliability diagrams for probabilistic forecasts.
problem Lack of stability in reliability diagrams hampered their use.
method CORP approach using non-parametric isotonic regression and PAV algorithm.
result Improved reliability diagrams with statistical consistency and reproducibility.
Paper introduces methods for more reliable probabilistic predictions with confidence intervals.
problem Inaccurate labeling of datasets due to unreliable probabilistic predictions from weak labeling functions.
method Proposes a methodology to provide confidence intervals for label probabilities using uncertainty sets of distributions.
result Improves reliability of probabilistic predictions and provides confidence intervals for label probabilities.
Improves reliability of medical diagnosis uncertainty estimates.
problem Label uncertainty in medical diagnosis.
method Post-hoc alpha-calibration method for neural network classifiers. result Significantly enhances reliability of uncertainty estimates.
Active Kriging Monte Carlo simulation method with conformal certification for failure probability estimation
problem Failure probability estimation in structural reliability analysis
method Active learning framework with conformal prediction
result Improved uncertainty quantification and reliability of failure probability estimates
Bayesian learning improves reliability of molecular predictions for hit compound discovery.
problem Improving reliability of machine learning predictions for virtual screening.
method Bayesian learning algorithms applied to graph neural networks.
result Bayesian learning leads to well-calibrated predictions and higher hit compound success.
A new method estimates rare failure events in complex systems.
problem Estimating the probability of rare failure events in non-linear systems.
method Stochastic Spectral Embedding (SSE) combined with modifications for efficient rare event estimation.
result Rare failure probability decomposed into conditional probabilities for easier computation.
New method combines neural networks with Monte Carlo for complex system reliability.
problem Estimating small failure probabilities in complex systems.
method Subset Simulation with Hamiltonian Neural Networks.
result High acceptance rates and computational efficiency in low-probability regions.
Although many successful ensemble clustering approaches have been developed in recent years, there are still two limitations to most of the existing approaches. First, they mostly overlook the issue of uncertain links, which may mislead the overall consensus process. Second, they generally lack the ability to incorpora…
Method quantifies sensitivity of reliability analysis to uncertainty sources.
problem Computational expense in reliability analysis of complex models.
method Gaussian process surrogate model, active learning, sensitivity analysis.
result Reduces main source of error in estimating rare event probabilities.
The aim of the present paper is to develop a strategy for solving reliability-based design optimization (RBDO) problems that remains applicable when the performance models are expensive to evaluate. Starting with the premise that simulation-based approaches are not affordable for such problems, and that the most-probab…
Entropy-based GP adaptive design improves failure probability estimation.
problem Limited accuracy in failure probability estimation due to model evaluation costs.
method Entropy-based Gaussian process (GP) adaptive design combined with multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS).
result More accurate failure probability estimates and higher confidence.
Study improves reliability of neural models for virtual screening.
problem Reliability issues in neural models for molecular property prediction.
method Investigated model architectures, regularization, and loss functions.
result Correct choice of regularization and inference methods improves reliability.
New framework assesses extreme errors in machine learning models.
problem Current validation methods fail to quantify extreme errors in high-stakes domains.
method Uses Extreme Value Theory (EVT) to estimate worst-case failures.
result Establishes EVT as a fundamental tool for assessing model reliability.
Many studies in economics deal with the non-reliability cost to assess insurance fees or investment analyses, but none takes into consideration the mechanical aspect of reliability analysis. Other studies in mechanics give some tools and methods to carry out reliability analyses and fragility study. This study develope…
The study challenges the reliability of VaR due to market randomness.
problem Reliability and accuracy of VaR predictions are compromised by market randomness.
method Introduces market-based probabilities of price and return, dependent on trade values and volumes.
result Market-based price volatility is more accurate than frequency-based VaR predictions.
In many instances, information on engineering systems can be obtained through measurements, monitoring or direct observations of system performances and can be used to update the system reliability estimate. In structural reliability analysis, such information is expressed either by inequalities (e.g. for the observati…
New method provides reliable probabilistic bounds for VUR detection.
problem Detect VUR in children without radiation exposure.
method Machine learning with probabilistic bounds for conditional probability.
result Guaranteed bounds contain well-calibrated probabilities.
We combine Bayesian networks (BNs) and structural reliability methods (SRMs) to create a new computational framework, termed enhanced Bayesian network (eBN), for reliability and risk analysis of engineering structures and infrastructure. BNs are efficient in representing and evaluating complex probabilistic dependence …
The plausibility of uncommon events and miracles based on testimony of such an event has been much discussed. When analyzing the probabilities involved, it has mostly been assumed that the common events can be taken as data in the calculations. However, we usually have only testimonies for the common events. While this…
New method calculates sensitivity of system failure probability.
problem Difficulty in computing sensitivity of failure probability.
method Monte Carlo strategy using response gradient and kernel smoothing.
result Single Monte Carlo run for sensitivity estimates.
New method calibrates uncertainty estimates for image classifiers without labeled data.
problem Uncertainty estimates for modern classifiers are unreliable without labeled calibration data.
method Calibrates uncertainty estimates using unlabeled examples for distribution shifts.
result Proposes a method that provides excellent uncertainty estimates under natural distribution shifts.
The paper presents a method to assign accurate and calibrated uncertainties to deterministic model predictions.
problem Assigning uncertainties to deterministic model predictions.
method Transforming deterministic predictions into probabilistic ones using a cost function that balances accuracy and reliability.
result The method improves the reliability of probabilistic predictions without sacrificing accuracy.
Develops geometric framework for uncertainty-aware multi-class classification.
problem Silent failure of AI models when uncertain, especially in multi-class settings.
method Geometric framework treating probability vectors as points on the (c−1)-dimensional probability simplex, using Fisher--Rao metric for calibration and uncertainty quantification. result Empirical validation shows 72.5% of errors captured while deferring 34.5% of ambiguous predictions, reducing automated decision error rates from 16.8% to 6.9%.
Structural reliability methods aim at computing the probability of failure of systems with respect to some prescribed performance functions. In modern engineering such functions usually resort to running an expensive-to-evaluate computational model (e.g. a finite element model). In this respect simulation methods, whic…
We investigate the problem of reliable communication between two legitimate parties over deletion channels under an active eavesdropping (aka jamming) adversarial model. To this goal, we develop a theoretical framework based on probabilistic finite-state automata to define novel encoding and decoding schemes that ensur…
Proposes a new criterion for reliable uncertainty estimation in deep neural networks.
problem Inability of existing approaches to provide reliable uncertainty estimates for deep neural networks.
method Develops a density uncertainty layer architecture that satisfies the proposed criterion.
result Density uncertainty layers provide more reliable uncertainty estimates and robust out-of-distribution detection.
MAntRA combines machine learning and Bayesian methods for time-dependent reliability analysis of unknown systems.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of systems with unknown governing physics.
method Combines machine learning, Bayesian statistics, and stochastic integration to discover and analyze SDEs from data.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of MAntRA on three numerical examples, indicating its potential for in-situ and heritage structure analysis.
The majority of traditional classification ru les minimizing the expected probability of error (0-1 loss) are inappropriate if the class probability distributions are ill-defined or impossible to estimate. We argue that in such cases class domains should be used instead of class distributions or densities to construct …
Study scaling of optimal solutions for reliability constraints in resource provisioning.
problem Achieving high reliability in resource provisioning under stringent requirements.
method Chance-constrained optimization, distributionally robust optimization, f-divergence balls, line search.
result Correct scaling properties of optimal decisions are preserved by using appropriate f-divergence balls, leading to conservative yet near-optimal solutions.
Study optimizes tree-based models for better alignment of predicted scores and actual probabilities.
problem Traditional calibration metrics fail to align predicted scores with actual probabilities when score distributions deviate from the underlying data.
method Optimizes tree-based models (Random Forest, XGBoost) using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to minimize the difference between predicted and true probability distributions.
result Optimized tree-based models yield superior alignment between predicted scores and actual probabilities without significant performance loss.
The paper shows how to efficiently generate large Gaussian process samples with reliability guarantees.
problem Generating large-scale Gaussian process samples efficiently and with reliability.
method Demonstrates scaling data generation to large \(n\) while providing high probability guarantees.
result Efficiently generates large Gaussian process samples with reliability guarantees.
This paper studies the classification of high-dimensional Gaussian signals from low-dimensional noisy, linear measurements. In particular, it provides upper bounds (sufficient conditions) on the number of measurements required to drive the probability of misclassification to zero in the low-noise regime, both for rando…
Paper proposes a matrix optimization model for reliable Euclidean embedding from noisy data.
problem Challenges in Euclidean embedding from noisy observations containing outliers.
method Matrix optimization based embedding model to detect and remove outliers.
result The model provides high accuracy estimators and successfully identifies outliers.
Paper recovers top-two answers and confusion probability in multi-choice crowdsourcing.
problem Recovering top-two answers and confusion probability in multi-choice crowdsourcing tasks.
method Proposes a two-stage inference algorithm based on a model quantifying task difficulty and worker reliability.
result Achieves minimax optimal convergence rate and outperforms other algorithms in synthetic and real data experiments.
Survey and framework for efficient active learning in structural reliability.
problem Efficiently solving complex structural reliability problems.
method Generalized modular framework combining surrogate model, reliability estimation algorithm, learning function, and stopping criterion.
result 39 strategies for solving 20 reliability benchmark problems, highlighting the importance of surrogates and algorithms.
Estimates reliability of nuclear fuel using advanced modeling techniques.
problem Determining the reliability of TRISO-coated particle fuel, which has small failure probabilities and expensive computational models.
method Coupled active learning, multifidelity modeling, and subset simulation.
result Multifidelity modeling strategies consistently reduce the number of high-fidelity model calls.
AL-SPCE improves reliability analysis for complex systems with active learning and SPCE.
problem Efficiently analyzing reliability of complex, computationally expensive models with intrinsic randomness.
method Active learning framework using stochastic polynomial chaos expansions (SPCE) to reduce computational burden.
result AL-SPCE maintains high accuracy in reliability estimates while significantly improving efficiency.
We introduce Fisher consistency in the sense of unbiasedness as a desirable property for estimators of class prior probabilities. Lack of Fisher consistency could be used as a criterion to dismiss estimators that are unlikely to deliver precise estimates in test datasets under prior probability and more general dataset…
Flexible evidential deep learning improves uncertainty quantification in machine learning.
problem Overconfident predictions in machine learning models can lead to serious consequences.
method Proposes flexible evidential deep learning (F-EDL) to model uncertainty over class probabilities using a flexible Dirichlet distribution.
result Empirically demonstrates state-of-the-art uncertainty quantification performance across diverse scenarios.
CoNBONet improves reliability analysis of complex systems with fast, energy-efficient predictions.
problem Time-dependent reliability analysis of nonlinear systems under stochastic excitations is computationally demanding.
method CoNBONet combines deep operator networks with neuroscience-inspired neuron models for fast, energy-efficient inference.
result CoNBONet provides reliable coverage of failure probabilities with theoretical guarantees.
In the field of structural reliability, the Monte-Carlo estimator is considered as the reference probability estimator. However, it is still untractable for real engineering cases since it requires a high number of runs of the model. In order to reduce the number of computer experiments, many other approaches known as …
A reliable and accurate forecasting model for crop yields is of crucial importance for efficient decision-making process in the agricultural sector. However, due to weather extremes and uncertainties, most forecasting models for crop yield are not reliable and accurate. For measuring the uncertainty and obtaining furth…
Novel framework for reliable long-tailed classification.
problem Challenges of long-tailed imbalance and specific error risks.
method Bayesian Decision Theory and variational optimization.
result Demonstrates reliability and flexibility in diverse tasks.
Prefix consistency improves model reliability by weighting answers based on their reproducibility.
problem Improving the reliability of large language models' reasoning traces.
method Use prefix consistency to weight candidate answers based on their reproducibility during regeneration.
result Prefix consistency is the best correctness predictor, reaching Standard MV plateau accuracy with up to 21x fewer tokens.
CPA framework assesses conditional validity of conformal prediction.
problem Challenges in evaluating conditional validity of conformal prediction.
method Reframes conditional coverage evaluation as a supervised learning task.
result Establishes convergence rates and proves CVI consistency.
TCE measures calibration error with a test-based approach.
problem Measuring calibration error of probabilistic binary classifiers.
method TCE uses a novel loss function based on a statistical test.
result TCE offers clear interpretation, consistent scale, and enhanced visual representation.
New decision-theoretic calibration error metric improves prediction reliability.
problem Improving the reliability of predictions for decision-making.
method Proposed Calibration Decision Loss (CDL) and an efficient algorithm to achieve near-optimal CDL.
result Near-optimal CDL guarantees vanishing payoff loss from miscalibration.