Conformal Prediction Regions match Imprecise Highest Density Regions under consonance.
problem Matching conformal prediction regions with highest density regions.
method Using consonance and the Imprecise Probability theory of clouds.
result Imprecise Highest Density Regions are equivalent to Conformal Prediction Regions under consonance.
VSPS creates flexible prediction regions for multi-target regression with guaranteed coverage.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multi-target regression with complex distributions.
method Conditional normalizing flows with conformal calibration to identify dense regions.
result VSPS produces smaller, more informative prediction regions with robust coverage guarantees.
Optimizes ellipsoids for uncertainty regions in parameter estimation.
problem Learning minimal volume uncertainty ellipsoids for parameter estimation.
method Differentiable optimization approach using neural networks to approximate optimal ellipsoids.
result Approximately computed ellipsoids are smaller and more accurate than existing methods.
While Gaussian probability densities are omnipresent in applied mathematics, Gaussian cumulative probabilities are hard to calculate in any but the univariate case. We study the utility of Expectation Propagation (EP) as an approximate integration method for this problem. For rectangular integration regions, the approx…
Paper speeds up visualization of uncertain data.
problem High computational cost in reconstructing data uncertainties.
method Subdivide data spatially, adaptively reconstructing only necessary values, using GPR kernel and saved data observations to estimate upper bounds for level-crossing probabilities.
result Accurate estimation of value occurrence probabilities with low computation cost.
The paper develops methods to estimate and assess the risk of binary classification.
problem Estimating the underlying regression function for binary classification.
method Three kernel-based semi-parametric resampling methods are proposed to build confidence regions for the regression function.
result The proposed methods guarantee regions with exact coverage probabilities and are strongly consistent.
This work introduces a novel nonparametric density index defined on graphs, the Sum-over-Forests (SoF) density index. It is based on a clear and intuitive idea: high-density regions in a graph are characterized by the fact that they contain a large amount of low-cost trees with high outdegrees while low-density regions…
Article addresses practical challenges in conformal prediction.
problem Challenges in determining, computing, and controlling conformal prediction regions.
method Proposes a quadratic-polynomial non-conformity measure.
result Allows circumventing three challenges in full conformal prediction framework.
ACE improves GFlowNet exploration efficiency by balancing complementary search strategies.
problem Efficient exploration of diverse high-probability regions in GFlowNets.
method Adaptive Complementary Exploration (ACE) trains a separate GFlowNet to search underexplored regions.
result Significantly improves approximation accuracy and diverse state discovery.
A new pseudo-metric uses data depth to compare probability distributions.
problem Designing a metric between probability distributions for machine learning applications.
method Extension of univariate quantiles to multivariate spaces, using data depth and Hausdorff distance.
result The pseudo-metric is robust, factorizes translations, and has good behavior under transformations.
The paper develops methods for constructing confidence regions for regression functions in binary classification.
problem Building distribution-free confidence regions for regression functions in binary classification.
method Resampling test and empirical risk minimization approach for model classes with finite pseudo-dimensions and inverse Lipschitz parameterizations.
result Strong uniform consistency and exponential probably approximately correct bounds on the L2 sizes of the regions. Novel method for high-dimensional BO using CMA to define local regions.
problem Challenges in applying BO to high-dimensional optimization problems.
method CMA strategy to learn search distribution and define local regions.
result Our method outperforms existing techniques on various benchmarks.
NCP uses neural networks to efficiently learn conditional distributions.
problem Learning conditional distributions for statistical inference.
method Neural Conditional Probability (NCP) approach.
result NCP efficiently handles complex probability distributions and matches leading methods.
Contrast uses normalizing flows to create precise prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs.
problem Generating reliable prediction regions for multi-dimensional outputs in supervised and unsupervised learning.
method Contrast uses normalizing flows to define nonconformity scores based on distances in latent space, creating sharp prediction regions.
result Contrast maintains guaranteed coverage probability and outperforms existing methods in generating accurate prediction regions.
The paper develops optimal confidence regions for categorical data.
problem Constructing tight confidence regions for categorical data.
method Develops new theory for minimum average volume confidence regions.
result Shows optimality of the regions for categorical data and its implications for machine learning.
Trust-region method improves Gaussian mixture models for complex distributions.
problem Learning accurate approximations of complex, multimodal distributions.
method Information-geometric trust regions for principled exploration, lower bound optimization, online component adaptation.
result Improved GMM approximations with better quality and efficiency.
Study proposes a tax-based system to share disaster risk among regions.
problem Systemic risk in catastrophic events and insurer insolvency.
method Public-private partnership with government intervention through taxation.
result Taxation system effectively shares residual claims in case of insurer insolvency.
New models reduce regional inequality by adjusting exchange range and asset distribution bias.
problem Reduction of regional inequality in economic systems.
method Proposed new asset exchange models with spatial exchange range and local support bias to adjust asset distribution and circulation rates.
result Achieved asset distribution from over-concentration to exponential and eventually normal, reducing Gini coefficient.
New method improves robust MDP solutions without confidence regions.
problem Computing policies with provable worst-case guarantees in reinforcement learning.
method Optimizes ambiguity sets using Bayesian inference to achieve better solutions.
result Achieves better solutions with the same robustness guarantees.
Entropy-based GP adaptive design improves failure probability estimation.
problem Limited accuracy in failure probability estimation due to model evaluation costs.
method Entropy-based Gaussian process (GP) adaptive design combined with multifidelity importance sampling (MFIS).
result More accurate failure probability estimates and higher confidence.
Sharp boundaries for detecting dense subhypergraphs established.
problem Detecting dense subhypergraphs in random hypergraphs.
method Established sharp detection boundaries for known and unknown edge probabilities.
result Sharp detectable regions differ significantly from graph counterparts.
New method uses conformalization to create classification regions from ambiguous labels.
problem Creating provable guarantees in classification with uncertain labels.
method Conformal methods applied to credal regions for classification problems.
result New method provides smaller and more disentangled prediction sets.
Proposes sparse local and regional counterfactual rules for robust recourses.
problem Challenges in counterfactual explanations, especially stability, synthesis, and implementation.
method Probabilistic framework using Random Forest to derive sparse local and regional counterfactual rules.
result Effective recourses derived from high-density regions, providing sparse and robust counterfactual rules.
Proposes a method to handle input uncertainties in regression trees.
problem Uncertainties in input variables in regression problems.
method Adapting standard regression trees to account for input uncertainties.
result The proposed method improves performance on data sets with input uncertainties.
Probability calibration trees improve accuracy of probability estimates.
problem Improving accuracy and calibration of probability estimates from classifiers.
method Probability calibration trees modify logistic model trees to learn different models in regions of the input space.
result Probability calibration trees outperform isotonic regression and Platt scaling in terms of root mean squared error.
CREDO assesses decision optimality under uncertainty without assuming a model.
problem Uncertainty in decision-making without reliable quantification of optimality.
method CREDO uses the inverse feasible region and conformal prediction balls to estimate decision optimality probability.
result CREDO provides accurate, efficient, and reliable evaluations of decision optimality.
New bounds on trajectory safety in training models with Langevin Dynamics.
problem Bounding the probability of a model's trajectory staying away from a designated failure region.
method Analyzes Langevin dynamics on smooth, strongly convex loss landscapes, introducing shape-free and local relaxation bounds.
result The in-set probability relaxes to the static value after a burn-in time of order d, using only the global spectral gap of the loss.
This work provides safety guarantees for iterative GP predictions.
problem Analytical intractability of uncertainty tracking in iterative GP predictions.
method Deriving formal probability error bounds for iterative GP predictions.
result Formal bounds ensure that GP trajectories lie within specified regions with high probability.
The global financial crisis, beginning in 2008, took an historic toll on national economies around the world. Following equity market crashes, unemployment rates rose significantly in many countries: Italy was among those. What will be the impact of such large shocks on Italian healthcare finances? An empirical model f…
We investigate the properties of multidimensional probability distributions in the context of latent space prior distributions of implicit generative models. Our work revolves around the phenomena arising while decoding linear interpolations between two random latent vectors -- regions of latent space in close proximit…
The SPS method constructs confidence regions for true parameters with optimal sample complexity.
problem Constructing exact, non-asymptotic confidence regions for true system parameters.
method Sign-Perturbed Sums (SPS) method, generalized to various types of problems.
result High probability upper bounds for SPS confidence regions show optimal shrinkage rate.
A new method improves quantile regression for high-dimensional data.
problem Handling heteroscedastic, multimodal, or skewed data in quantile regression.
method Dynamic prototypes-based probability density estimation with conformalized high-density quantile regression.
result Enhanced prediction regions with valid coverage guarantees and scalability to higher dimensions.
Paper develops a TR-SSQP method for noisy optimization with heavy-tailed noise.
problem Optimization problems with stochastic objectives and heavy-tailed noise.
method Trust-Region Stochastic Sequential Quadratic Programming (TR-SSQP) method.
result Achieves high-probability first-order and second-order stationarity bounds for heavy-tailed noise.
Multivariate regular variation plays a role assessing tail risk in diverse applications such as finance, telecommunications, insurance and environmental science. The classical theory, being based on an asymptotic model, sometimes leads to inaccurate and useless estimates of probabilities of joint tail regions. This pro…
FreB protocol uses AI to infer hidden parameters with valid confidence regions.
problem Generating biased or overconfident conclusions from AI-generated posterior distributions.
method Frequentist-Bayes (FreB) protocol reshapes AI-generated posterior distributions into valid confidence regions.
result FreB provides valid confidence regions that consistently include true parameters with expected probability.
Denoising autoencoders (DAEs) are powerful deep learning models used for feature extraction, data generation and network pre-training. DAEs consist of an encoder and decoder which may be trained simultaneously to minimise a loss (function) between an input and the reconstruction of a corrupted version of the input. The…
DiwE uses regional distribution changes to create diverse ensemble classifiers for concept drift.
problem Handling concept drift in evolving data streams.
method DiwE measures diversity based on regional distribution disagreement and uses it to weight instances and select classifiers.
result DiwE outperforms other algorithms on various synthetic and real-world data stream benchmarks.
A new method, Residual-Permuted Sums, improves confidence region construction for linear regression models.
problem Constructing reliable confidence regions for linear regression models with non-symmetric noise.
method Residual-Permuted Sums (RPS) method, which permutes residuals instead of perturbing their signs.
result RPS provides exact finite sample coverage probabilities and is uniformly strongly consistent.
Study information limits for community detection in sub-hypergraphs.
problem Identify limits for exact community detection in sub-hypergraphs.
method Use Fano's inequality to define model parameters and identify success and failure regions.
result Identify regions where algorithms succeed or fail in exact recovery.
Proposes a method to quantify the reliability of salient regions in deep learning models using p-values.
problem Difficulty in assessing the reliability of saliency maps generated by deep learning models.
method Proposes a selective inference framework to quantify the reliability of salient regions as selected hypotheses by deep learning models.
result The method can provably control the probability of false positive detections of salient regions.
Paper defines ε-Safe Decision Regions for exponential family distributions and approximates them for unbalanced data.
problem Need probabilistic guarantees for reliable predictions in machine learning.
method Formalizes ε-Safe Decision Regions, proves their form for exponential family distributions, and develops Multi Cost SVM for unbalanced data.
result Formal definition and analytical determination of ε-Safe Decision Regions for exponential family distributions.
Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) are a class of generative neural network that are typically trained to maximize a log-likelihood objective function. We argue that likelihood-based training strategies may fail because the objective does not sufficiently penalize models that place a high probability in regions where…
Adaptive PINNs improve accuracy by adding points where solutions are uncertain.
problem Inadequate sampling in PINNs leads to inaccurate solutions, especially near singularities.
method FI-PINNs use failure probability to dynamically add points, improving numerical accuracy.
result FI-PINNs achieve better accuracy through adaptive sampling, as proven by rigorous error bounds.
We propose a new class of learning algorithms that combines variational approximation and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. Naive algorithms that use the variational approximation as proposal distribution can perform poorly because this approximation tends to underestimate the true variance and other features…
ScoPe method constructs exact confidence regions for GARCH models.
problem Constructing reliable confidence regions for GARCH models.
method Score permutation using randomly permuted residuals.
result Exact coverage probabilities without additional assumptions.
New algorithm achieves strong consistency in binary non-uniform hypergraph classification.
problem Node classification on binary non-uniform hypergraphs with varying edge probabilities.
method Proposes a refinement algorithm using power iteration on weighted adjacency matrices.
result Proves optimality of the refinement algorithm, achieving strong consistency and IT lower bound.
Waldo method constructs valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference.
problem Constructing valid confidence regions for simulator-based inference with high-dimensional data.
method Reframes Wald test statistic and uses regression-based machinery for Neyman inversion.
result Waldo method produces conditionally valid and precise confidence regions.
Generative model learns conditional distributions on collective variable levels.
problem Modeling conditional probability distributions on collective variable levels.
method General and efficient learning approach, data enrichment strategy.
result Effective generative models on different level-sets of collective variables.