In many real-world applications of machine learning classifiers, it is essential to predict the probability of an example belonging to a particular class. This paper proposes a simple technique for predicting probabilities based on optimizing a ranking loss, followed by isotonic regression. This semi-parametric techniq…
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48 results for “probability ranking models”
Paper simplifies calculating causation probabilities and ranks root causes.
problem Computational challenges in assessing causal relationships.
method Algorithmic simplifications and novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis.
result Significantly reduces computational complexity for calculating causation probabilities.
The paper tackles multi-label ranking with uncertain probabilities.
problem Making skeptical inferences for multi-label ranking with sets of probabilities.
method Assumes a convex set of probabilities (credal set) over labels and seeks set-valued predictions.
result Developed methods for making skeptical inferences in multi-label ranking with uncertain probabilities.
The paper proposes a method to learn Bayesian networks with low rank conditional probability tables.
problem Learning the structure of Bayesian networks efficiently.
method Introduces low rankness for conditional probability tables, connects to Fourier transformation, and proposes a polynomial time algorithm.
result Correctly recovers the true directed structure of a low rank Bayesian network with few queries and polynomial samples.
The paper develops methods to infer membership probabilities and rank network nodes using the DCMM model.
problem Understanding the latent structure of network data, especially in mixed-membership models.
method Degree-Corrected Mixed Membership (DCMM) model, novel finite-sample expansion, asymptotic distributions, confidence intervals, multiplier bootstrap method.
result Valid inference on membership probabilities and node rankings, quantifying uncertainty.
New concept of attitude towards probability introduced in risk sharing problems.
problem Risk sharing problems and attitudes towards probability.
method Generalized definition of probability premium, local approximation, rank-dependent utility model, dual theory.
result Attitude towards probability can be first-order or second-order, depending on the model.
Recently, fundamental conditions on the sampling patterns have been obtained for finite completability of low-rank matrices or tensors given the corresponding ranks. In this paper, we consider the scenario where the rank is not given and we aim to approximate the unknown rank based on the location of sampled entries an…
Estimates joint probability distribution from 1-way marginals using low-rank tensors and random projections.
problem Nonparametric estimation of joint probability mass function (PMF) from limited data.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition and random projections to link data to PMF estimation.
result Estimates joint density from 1-way marginals using transformed space and novel algorithm.
New methods ensure feature importance rankings are correct with high probability.
problem Stability issues in feature importance scores due to random sampling.
method Hypothesis testing-based techniques to assess and verify the stability of top-ranked features.
result Ensures the most important features are correct with high-probability guarantees.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.
This research tackles multiclass classification by introducing a method for label ranking.
problem The challenge is to predict a sorted list of labels based on input features.
method Inspired by ranking median regression, the One-Versus-One (OVO) approach is used to achieve optimal ranking.
result The OVO approach yields an optimal ranking of labels with overwhelming probability under noise conditions.
We consider sequential or active ranking of a set of n items based on noisy pairwise comparisons. Items are ranked according to the probability that a given item beats a randomly chosen item, and ranking refers to partitioning the items into sets of pre-specified sizes according to their scores. This notion of ranking …
The paper develops a method to estimate consumer preferences from observed rankings.
problem Estimating consumer preferences from partial ranking information.
method Interpreting observed rankings as pairwise comparisons, modeling latent utility, and correcting for selection bias.
result The method improves recommendation performance, especially for previously unconsumed products.
Survival analysis is a type of semi-supervised ranking task where the target output (the survival time) is often right-censored. Utilizing this information is a challenge because it is not obvious how to correctly incorporate these censored examples into a model. We study how three categories of loss functions, namely …
A low-rank tensor model simplifies multi-dimensional Markov chains.
problem Simplifying the dynamics of multi-dimensional Markov chains.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition for multi-dimensional state spaces.
result Our tensor model requires fewer parameters and samples than conventional methods.
Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.
problem Estimating joint probability density from limited samples.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition, dictionaries, and Radon transforms.
result Algorithm outperforms previous methods in estimating synthetic probability densities.
This paper presents a Bayesian method for estimating the rank of a low-rank tensor model of joint PMF.
problem Estimating the rank of a low-rank tensor model of joint PMF from observed data.
method Bayesian framework for estimating low-rank components and rank simultaneously, using variational inference.
result Automatic rank detection and improved estimation accuracy compared to cross-validation methods.
New theory extends rank-dependent utility for risk and ambiguity.
problem Modeling decision-making under risk and ambiguity.
method Axiomatizes a new preference relation with ambiguity index, probability weighting, and utility function.
result Extends rank-dependent utility to risk and ambiguity, reducing to existing models under specific conditions.
Matrix completion is a modern missing data problem where both the missing structure and the underlying parameter are high dimensional. Although missing structure is a key component to any missing data problems, existing matrix completion methods often assume a simple uniform missing mechanism. In this work, we study ma…
Investment strategies for rank-dependent utility agents are derived in a continuous-time market.
problem Time inconsistency in rank-dependent utility models.
method Study of consistent planners seeking intra-personal equilibrium strategies.
result Explicit final wealth profile replicating equilibrium strategies, with scaling function derived.
The question of aggregating pair-wise comparisons to obtain a global ranking over a collection of objects has been of interest for a very long time: be it ranking of online gamers (e.g. MSR's TrueSkill system) and chess players, aggregating social opinions, or deciding which product to sell based on transactions. In mo…
We study the rank distribution, the cumulative probability, and the probability density of returns of stock prices of listed firms traded in four stock markets. We find that the rank distribution and the cumulative probability of stock prices traded in are consistent approximately with the Zipf's law or a power law. It…
Forward Rank-Dependent Performance Criteria: Time-Consistent Investment Under Probability Distortionq-fin.MF
We introduce the concept of forward rank-dependent performance processes, extending the original notion to forward criteria that incorporate probability distortions. A fundamental challenge is how to reconcile the time-consistent nature of forward performance criteria with the time-inconsistency stemming from probabili…
Scalable model for slate recommendation learns reward probabilities.
problem Scalable personalized slate recommendation in large action spaces.
method Probabilistic Rank and Reward (PRR) model combining reward, interaction, and rank.
result PRR outperforms existing methods and is scalable to large action spaces.
Paper improves uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge systems.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge frameworks.
method Generalised probabilistic modelling and improved uncertainty estimates.
result Proposed uncertainty estimates significantly improve system efficiency.
Proposes a new method for rank-consistent ordinal regression without weight-sharing constraints.
problem Ordinal response variables in real-world prediction problems are often ignored by conventional classification losses.
method CORN framework using conditional training sets and the chain rule for conditional probability distributions.
result Improves performance substantially compared to the CORAL reference approach without weight-sharing restrictions.
New method for summarizing ranking distributions using consensus ranking distributions.
problem Summarizing ranking distributions efficiently and accurately.
method Introducing consensus ranking distributions and a top-down tree-structured statistical algorithm.
result Optimal distortion can be expressed as a function of pairwise probabilities, enabling efficient learning methods.
Develops methods to estimate high rank tensors from noisy data.
problem Estimating high rank tensors from noisy observations.
method Generative latent variable tensor model, polynomial-time spectral algorithm.
result Achieves computationally optimal rate for signal tensor estimation.
Improved matrix completion for non-uniformly sampled data.
problem Estimating unobserved entries in a matrix with varying sampling probabilities.
method Developed entry-specific bounds for low-rank matrix completion under structured non-uniform sampling.
result Error bounds for each entry match minimax lower bounds under certain conditions.
In this paper, we analyze the fundamental conditions for low-rank tensor completion given the separation or tensor-train (TT) rank, i.e., ranks of unfoldings. We exploit the algebraic structure of the TT decomposition to obtain the deterministic necessary and sufficient conditions on the locations of the samples to ens…
Binary classification is highly used in credit scoring in the estimation of probability of default. The validation of such predictive models is based both on rank ability, and also on calibration (i.e. how accurately the probabilities output by the model map to the observed probabilities). In this study we cover the cu…
Calibrated Boosting-Foreststat.ML
Excellent ranking power along with well calibrated probability estimates are needed in many classification tasks. In this paper, we introduce a technique, Calibrated Boosting-Forest that captures both. This novel technique is an ensemble of gradient boosting machines that can support both continuous and binary labels. …
NMF and PCC linked, improving data denoising and feature stability.
problem Improving NMF's rank estimation and feature stability.
method Combining NMF and PCC for robust rank estimation and feature stability.
result NMF features are stable against noise and optimization seeds.
CoarsenRank improves robustness in rank aggregation despite model misspecification.
problem Rank aggregation under model misspecification in real-world scenarios.
method CoarsenRank designs a neighborhood of ideal preferences to handle agnostic noise-corrupted data.
result CoarsenRank achieves robustness against model misspecification within a defined neighborhood.
EBBS integrates expert assessments into MIO best-subsets problem.
problem Identifying relevant features in statistical models.
method Expert-implied Bayesian approach using MIO.
result Reduces to classical best-subsets when experts are silent.
We analyze the generalized Mallows model, a popular exponential model over rankings. Estimating the central (or consensus) ranking from data is NP-hard. We obtain the following new results: (1) We show that search methods can estimate both the central ranking pi0 and the model parameters theta exactly. The search is n!…
SyncRank recovers global ranking from noisy comparisons with theoretical guarantees.
problem Recovering a global ranking from noisy pairwise comparisons.
method Complex-valued data model and SDP relaxation for exact ranking recovery.
result SyncRank achieves exact ranking recovery with high probability above a critical noise threshold of O(sqrt(n / log n)).
Convex optimization method recovers low-rank matrices from rank-one projections efficiently.
problem Recovering low-rank matrices from limited rank-one projections.
method Unlifted convex optimization with subgradient method.
result The estimator succeeds with high probability if the number of measurements exceeds up to logarithmic factors.
Estimates the probability of a random symmetric tensor being close to rank-one.
problem Estimating the probability of a random symmetric tensor being close to rank-one.
method Using Weyl's tube formula and techniques from Random Matrix theory, we study metric invariants of the real Veronese variety.
result Explicit formula for the reach and curvature coefficients of the real Veronese variety with respect to the Bombieri-Weyl metric.
Investigates portfolio selection for rank-dependent utilities in incomplete markets.
problem Portfolio selection for agents with rank-dependent utility in incomplete financial markets.
method Characterizes deterministic strict equilibrium strategies for constant-coefficient and time-invariant probability weighting functions. Addresses the issue of selecting an optimal strategy from multiple equilibrium strategies for time-variant probability weighting functions.
result Characterizes deterministic strict equilibrium strategies and identifies optimal strategies from multiple equilibrium strategies.
The paper addresses calibration in label ranking, a structured prediction task.
problem Calibration in label ranking is not well understood and often poorly calibrated.
method Formalized calibration for label ranking, developed a hierarchy of notions, and empirically evaluated models.
result Popular label ranking models are often poorly calibrated, with differences between sub-ranking and top-k metrics.
SGD can jump from high rank minima to low rank minima in DLNs, but not back.
problem SGD's tendency to get stuck in high rank minima in DLNs.
method Analysis of the -regularized loss function of DLNs and the definition of absorbing sets.
result SGD has a non-zero probability to jump from high rank minima to low rank minima but zero probability to jump back.
We present power low rank ensembles (PLRE), a flexible framework for n-gram language modeling where ensembles of low rank matrices and tensors are used to obtain smoothed probability estimates of words in context. Our method can be understood as a generalization of n-gram modeling to non-integer n, and includes standar…
Zipf's Law Distributions for Korean Stock Pricescond-mat.stat-mech
This paper investigates the rank distribution, cumulative probability, and probability density of price returns for the stocks traded in the KSE and the KOSDAQ market. This research demonstrates that the rank distribution is consistent approximately with the Zipf's law with exponent (KSE) and -1.31 (KOSDAQ),…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function (scoring rule). Popular example of scoring rule for continuous outcomes is the …
A new model for supervised learning to rank using gradient estimation.
problem Improving supervised learning to rank methods.
method Proposes a new model with a gradient estimator for categorical variables.
result Achieves better or comparable results compared to existing methods.
Algorithm ranks assets in fluctuating markets.
problem Ranking assets in nonstationary time series.
method Naive Bayes asset ranker that adjusts weights based on performance.
result Outperforms traditional methods and S&P 500 index.
Proposes new listwise learning-to-rank models to address rating ties and document relevance.
problem Rating ties and document relevance in existing listwise learning-to-rank models.
method Models ranking as selecting documents from a candidate set based on unique rating levels. Uses a new loss function and adapted RNN model for refining prediction scores.
result Models notably outperform state-of-the-art learning-to-rank models on four public datasets.