A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
New concept of attitude towards probability introduced in risk sharing problems.
We determine the optimal amount of life insurance for a household of two wage earners. We consider the simple case of exponential utility, thereby removing wealth as a factor in buying life insurance, while retaining the relationship among life insurance, income, and the probability of dying and thus losing that income…
The study analyzes how bonus-malus systems and delayed claims settlement affect insurance companies' financial stability.
We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the arrival times of the premiums and of the claims respectively, are independent. Such a …
Study investigates ruin probability with random premiums and risky investments.
The net-premium principle is considered to be the most genuine and fair premium principle in actuarial applications. However, an insurance company, applying the net-premium principle, goes bankrupt with probability one in the long run, even if the company covers its entire costs by collecting the respective fees from i…
This paper gives yet another definition of game-theoretic probability in the context of continuous-time idealized financial markets. Without making any probabilistic assumptions (but assuming positive and continuous price paths), we obtain a simple expression for the equity premium and derive a version of the capital a…
A new method to break down insurance costs into risk and uncertainty.
Optimal insurance minimizes ruin probability with non-decreasing functions.
We present an analytical study of an insurance company. We model the company's performance on a statistical basis and evaluate the predicted annual income of the company in terms of insurance parameters namely the premium, total number of the insured, average loss claims etc. We restrict ourselves to a single insurance…
We construct the term structure of the (forward-looking, US market) equity risk premium from SPX option chains. The method is "model-light". Risk-neutral probability densities are estimated by fitting -component Gaussian mixture models to option quotes, where is a small integer (here 4 or 5). These densities are…
Study optimal reinsurance contracts to prevent moral hazard under non-concave premium principles.
In this paper we develop a symbolic technique to obtain asymptotic expressions for ruin probabilities and discounted penalty functions in renewal insurance risk models when the premium income depends on the present surplus of the insurance portfolio. The analysis is based on boundary problems for linear ordinary differ…
We determine the optimal strategies for purchasing term life insurance and for investing in a risky financial market in order to maximize the probability of reaching a bequest goal while consuming from an investment account. We extend Bayraktar and Young (2015) by allowing the individual to purchase term life insurance…
Characterizes measures preserving compound mixed renewal process properties.
We study the risk premium impact in the Perturbative Black Scholes model. The Perturbative Black Scholes model, developed by Scotti, is a subjective volatility model based on the classical Black Scholes one, where the volatility used by the trader is an estimation of the market one and contains measurement errors. In t…
We revisit the problem of pricing options with historical volatility estimators. We do this in the context of a generalized GARCH model with multiple time scales and asymmetry. It is argued that the reason for the observed volatility risk premium is tail risk aversion. We parametrize such risk aversion in terms of thre…
Without probability theory, we define classes of supermartingales, martingales, and semimartingales in idealized financial markets with continuous price paths. This allows us to establish probability-free versions of a number of standard results in martingale theory, including the Dubins-Schwarz theorem, the Girsanov t…
In this paper, we introduce an insurance ruin model with adaptive premium rate, thereafter refered to as restructuring/refraction, in which classical ruin and bankruptcy are distinguished. In this model, the premium rate is increased as soon as the wealth process falls into the red zone and is brought back to its regul…
We investigate a variety of stability properties of Haezendonck-Goovaerts premium principles on their natural domain, namely Orlicz spaces. We show that such principles always satisfy the Fatou property. This allows to establish a tractable dual representation without imposing any condition on the reference Orlicz func…
We determine how an individual can use life insurance to meet a bequest goal. We assume that the individual's consumption is met by an income, such as a pension, life annuity, or Social Security. Then, we consider the wealth that the individual wants to devote towards heirs (separate from any wealth related to the afor…
The study reveals unspanned risks in equity option risk premiums, explaining negative premiums for certain options.
The paper is motivated by a problem concerning the monotonicity of insurance premiums with respect to their loading parameter: the larger the parameter, the larger the insurance premium is expected to be. This property, usually called loading monotonicity, is satisfied by premiums that appear in the literature. The inc…
Examines US equity risk premiums amid COVID-19.
A new insurance and reinsurance pricing scheme based on realized loss.
We analyze the probability of ruin for the {\it scaled} classical Cramér-Lundberg (CL) risk process and the corresponding diffusion approximation. The scaling, introduced by Iglehart \cite{I1969} to the actuarial literature, amounts to multiplying the Poisson rate $\la$ by , dividing the claim severity by $\sqrtn$, …
Method reconstructs hidden Markov chains from insurance data.
The paper values reinsurance contracts for dynamic catastrophe claims without arbitrage.
A new method calculates risk loadings in classification ratemaking without subjective parameters.
The price of a stock will rarely follow the assumed model and a curious investor or a Regulatory Authority may wish to obtain a probability model the prices support. A risk neutral probability for the stock's price at time is determined in closed form from the prices before without assuming a price…
Study examines how EU's Value at Risk constraints affect insurance oligopolies.
New method for risk quantification using quantile processes and measure distortions.
We present in this paper a new premium computation principle based on the use of prior information from multiple sources for computing the premium charged to a policyholder. Under this framework, based on the use of Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) operators, we propose alternative collective and Bayes premiums and des…
We consider the concept of equilibrium in economic systems from statistical mechanics viewpoint. A new method is suggested for computing the premium on this basis. The Bühlmann economic premium principle is derived as a special case of our method.
Optimizes insurance pricing to minimize ruin probability under various claim dependencies.
Proposes a fix for IRS calculation of Obamacare tax credits.
Derives a size premium from automated market makers in decentralized AI subnets.
Endogenous reinsurance pricing in large insurance markets
Introduces an unobservable intrinsic electricity price to link storage theory with risk premium.
New model solves equity premium puzzle with risk aversion coefficient.
SPAC data shows premium investors get better terms, non-premium get quid pro quo deals.
We consider the problem of how an individual can use term life insurance to maximize the probability of reaching a given bequest goal, an important problem in financial planning. We assume that the individual buys instantaneous term life insurance with a premium payable continuously. By contrast with Bayraktar et al. (…
We show that the martingale component in the long-term factorization of the stochastic discount factor due to Alvarez and Jermann (2005) and Hansen and Scheinkman (2009) is highly volatile, produces a downward-sloping term structure of bond Sharpe ratios, and implies that the long bond is far from growth optimality. In…
Analyzes premium data of Indian non-life insurers, finding GEV distribution best fits Lognormal and GEV extremes.
New model solves equity premium puzzle.
Paper finds significant impact of stock market swings on equity risk premium predictability.
The study finds no evidence of stochastic arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
Equity risk premium is a central component of every risk and return model in finance and a key input to estimate costs of equity and capital in both corporate finance and valuation. An article by Damodaran examines three broad approaches for estimating the equity risk premium. The first is survey based, it consists in …