The paper tackles multi-label ranking with uncertain probabilities.
problem Making skeptical inferences for multi-label ranking with sets of probabilities.
method Assumes a convex set of probabilities (credal set) over labels and seeks set-valued predictions.
result Developed methods for making skeptical inferences in multi-label ranking with uncertain probabilities.
The paper introduces metrics to rank potential outcomes for better decision-making.
problem Optimal action selection in uncertain situations using causal reasoning.
method Introducing two new metrics: probabilities of potential outcome ranking (PoR) and probability of achieving the best potential outcome (PoB). Establishing identification theorems and deriving bounds for these metrics, and presenting estimation methods.
result The estimators' finite-sample properties and their application to a real-world dataset are demonstrated.
In many real-world applications of machine learning classifiers, it is essential to predict the probability of an example belonging to a particular class. This paper proposes a simple technique for predicting probabilities based on optimizing a ranking loss, followed by isotonic regression. This semi-parametric techniq…
New concept of attitude towards probability introduced in risk sharing problems.
problem Risk sharing problems and attitudes towards probability.
method Generalized definition of probability premium, local approximation, rank-dependent utility model, dual theory.
result Attitude towards probability can be first-order or second-order, depending on the model.
Paper simplifies calculating causation probabilities and ranks root causes.
problem Computational challenges in assessing causal relationships.
method Algorithmic simplifications and novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis.
result Significantly reduces computational complexity for calculating causation probabilities.
Recently, fundamental conditions on the sampling patterns have been obtained for finite completability of low-rank matrices or tensors given the corresponding ranks. In this paper, we consider the scenario where the rank is not given and we aim to approximate the unknown rank based on the location of sampled entries an…
Estimates joint probability distribution from 1-way marginals using low-rank tensors and random projections.
problem Nonparametric estimation of joint probability mass function (PMF) from limited data.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition and random projections to link data to PMF estimation.
result Estimates joint density from 1-way marginals using transformed space and novel algorithm.
New methods ensure feature importance rankings are correct with high probability.
problem Stability issues in feature importance scores due to random sampling.
method Hypothesis testing-based techniques to assess and verify the stability of top-ranked features.
result Ensures the most important features are correct with high-probability guarantees.
Matrix completion is a modern missing data problem where both the missing structure and the underlying parameter are high dimensional. Although missing structure is a key component to any missing data problems, existing matrix completion methods often assume a simple uniform missing mechanism. In this work, we study ma…
This research tackles multiclass classification by introducing a method for label ranking.
problem The challenge is to predict a sorted list of labels based on input features.
method Inspired by ranking median regression, the One-Versus-One (OVO) approach is used to achieve optimal ranking.
result The OVO approach yields an optimal ranking of labels with overwhelming probability under noise conditions.
We study the rank distribution, the cumulative probability, and the probability density of returns of stock prices of listed firms traded in four stock markets. We find that the rank distribution and the cumulative probability of stock prices traded in are consistent approximately with the Zipf's law or a power law. It…
We introduce the concept of forward rank-dependent performance processes, extending the original notion to forward criteria that incorporate probability distortions. A fundamental challenge is how to reconcile the time-consistent nature of forward performance criteria with the time-inconsistency stemming from probabili…
The paper develops methods to infer membership probabilities and rank network nodes using the DCMM model.
problem Understanding the latent structure of network data, especially in mixed-membership models.
method Degree-Corrected Mixed Membership (DCMM) model, novel finite-sample expansion, asymptotic distributions, confidence intervals, multiplier bootstrap method.
result Valid inference on membership probabilities and node rankings, quantifying uncertainty.
Proposes a new method for rank-consistent ordinal regression without weight-sharing constraints.
problem Ordinal response variables in real-world prediction problems are often ignored by conventional classification losses.
method CORN framework using conditional training sets and the chain rule for conditional probability distributions.
result Improves performance substantially compared to the CORAL reference approach without weight-sharing restrictions.
Improved matrix completion for non-uniformly sampled data.
problem Estimating unobserved entries in a matrix with varying sampling probabilities.
method Developed entry-specific bounds for low-rank matrix completion under structured non-uniform sampling.
result Error bounds for each entry match minimax lower bounds under certain conditions.
In this paper, we analyze the fundamental conditions for low-rank tensor completion given the separation or tensor-train (TT) rank, i.e., ranks of unfoldings. We exploit the algebraic structure of the TT decomposition to obtain the deterministic necessary and sufficient conditions on the locations of the samples to ens…
The paper develops a method to estimate consumer preferences from observed rankings.
problem Estimating consumer preferences from partial ranking information.
method Interpreting observed rankings as pairwise comparisons, modeling latent utility, and correcting for selection bias.
result The method improves recommendation performance, especially for previously unconsumed products.
We consider sequential or active ranking of a set of n items based on noisy pairwise comparisons. Items are ranked according to the probability that a given item beats a randomly chosen item, and ranking refers to partitioning the items into sets of pre-specified sizes according to their scores. This notion of ranking …
Method estimates joint probability density from samples using low-rank decomposition and random projections.
problem Estimating joint probability density from limited samples.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition, dictionaries, and Radon transforms.
result Algorithm outperforms previous methods in estimating synthetic probability densities.
Estimates the probability of a random symmetric tensor being close to rank-one.
problem Estimating the probability of a random symmetric tensor being close to rank-one.
method Using Weyl's tube formula and techniques from Random Matrix theory, we study metric invariants of the real Veronese variety.
result Explicit formula for the reach and curvature coefficients of the real Veronese variety with respect to the Bombieri-Weyl metric.
In this paper, we provide a method to learn the directed structure of a Bayesian network using data. The data is accessed by making conditional probability queries to a black-box model. We introduce a notion of simplicity of representation of conditional probability tables for the nodes in the Bayesian network, that we…
Investigates portfolio selection for rank-dependent utilities in incomplete markets.
problem Portfolio selection for agents with rank-dependent utility in incomplete financial markets.
method Characterizes deterministic strict equilibrium strategies for constant-coefficient and time-invariant probability weighting functions. Addresses the issue of selecting an optimal strategy from multiple equilibrium strategies for time-variant probability weighting functions.
result Characterizes deterministic strict equilibrium strategies and identifies optimal strategies from multiple equilibrium strategies.
SGD can jump from high rank minima to low rank minima in DLNs, but not back.
problem SGD's tendency to get stuck in high rank minima in DLNs.
method Analysis of the L2-regularized loss function of DLNs and the definition of absorbing sets. result SGD has a non-zero probability to jump from high rank minima to low rank minima but zero probability to jump back.
Survival analysis is a type of semi-supervised ranking task where the target output (the survival time) is often right-censored. Utilizing this information is a challenge because it is not obvious how to correctly incorporate these censored examples into a model. We study how three categories of loss functions, namely …
This paper investigates the rank distribution, cumulative probability, and probability density of price returns for the stocks traded in the KSE and the KOSDAQ market. This research demonstrates that the rank distribution is consistent approximately with the Zipf's law with exponent α=−1.00 (KSE) and -1.31 (KOSDAQ),…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function (scoring rule). Popular example of scoring rule for continuous outcomes is the …
Algorithm ranks assets in fluctuating markets.
problem Ranking assets in nonstationary time series.
method Naive Bayes asset ranker that adjusts weights based on performance.
result Outperforms traditional methods and S&P 500 index.
Study the distribution for low-rank matrix learning, improving inference methods.
problem Lack of understanding of underlying probability distributions in low-rank matrix learning.
method Analyze the distribution f(X)∝e−λ∥X∥∗, using differential geometry to design an improved MCMC algorithm and learn penalty parameter λ. result Improved MCMC algorithm and penalty parameter learning for low-rank Bayesian inference.
New theory extends rank-dependent utility for risk and ambiguity.
problem Modeling decision-making under risk and ambiguity.
method Axiomatizes a new preference relation with ambiguity index, probability weighting, and utility function.
result Extends rank-dependent utility to risk and ambiguity, reducing to existing models under specific conditions.
Minimizing the rank of a matrix subject to constraints is a challenging problem that arises in many applications in control theory, machine learning, and discrete geometry. This class of optimization problems, known as rank minimization, is NP-HARD, and for most practical problems there are no efficient algorithms that…
Study uncovers new phase transitions in asymmetric causal inference scenarios.
problem Understanding typical phase transitions in asymmetric causal inference.
method Combining Causal inference (C-inf) and Low-rank recovery (LRR) with Random duality - Free probability theory (RDT-FPT).
result Discovering a doubling low-rankness phenomenon in asymmetric scenarios.
We connect Causal inference and low-rank recovery via RDT and free probability theory.
problem Determining the applicability of causal inference via low-rank recovery.
method Random Duality Theory, free probability theory, and mathematical rigor.
result Exact closed-form worst case phase transitions for causal inference.
Formulates a Dueling Bandits problem for eliciting Kemeny rankings.
problem Eliciting preferences to find a Kemeny ranking.
method Formulates the problem as a Dueling Bandits problem, considering sampling with and without replacement.
result Approximation bounds and algorithms for finding PAC solutions with sample complexity.
New method for summarizing ranking distributions using consensus ranking distributions.
problem Summarizing ranking distributions efficiently and accurately.
method Introducing consensus ranking distributions and a top-down tree-structured statistical algorithm.
result Optimal distortion can be expressed as a function of pairwise probabilities, enabling efficient learning methods.
We consider the problem of low canonical polyadic (CP) rank tensor completion. A completion is a tensor whose entries agree with the observed entries and its rank matches the given CP rank. We analyze the manifold structure corresponding to the tensors with the given rank and define a set of polynomials based on the sa…
Novel algorithm for Markov decision processes using rank-one approximation.
problem Solving planning and learning problems of Markov decision processes.
method Policy iteration with rank-one approximation of transition probability matrix.
result The proposed algorithm consistently outperforms first-order algorithms and their accelerated versions.
Investment strategies for rank-dependent utility agents are derived in a continuous-time market.
problem Time inconsistency in rank-dependent utility models.
method Study of consistent planners seeking intra-personal equilibrium strategies.
result Explicit final wealth profile replicating equilibrium strategies, with scaling function derived.
A low-rank tensor model simplifies multi-dimensional Markov chains.
problem Simplifying the dynamics of multi-dimensional Markov chains.
method Low-rank tensor decomposition for multi-dimensional state spaces.
result Our tensor model requires fewer parameters and samples than conventional methods.
This paper presents a Bayesian method for estimating the rank of a low-rank tensor model of joint PMF.
problem Estimating the rank of a low-rank tensor model of joint PMF from observed data.
method Bayesian framework for estimating low-rank components and rank simultaneously, using variational inference.
result Automatic rank detection and improved estimation accuracy compared to cross-validation methods.
Learning-to-rank techniques have proven to be extremely useful for prioritization problems, where we rank items in order of their estimated probabilities, and dedicate our limited resources to the top-ranked items. This work exposes a serious problem with the state of learning-to-rank algorithms, which is that they are…
The question of aggregating pair-wise comparisons to obtain a global ranking over a collection of objects has been of interest for a very long time: be it ranking of online gamers (e.g. MSR's TrueSkill system) and chess players, aggregating social opinions, or deciding which product to sell based on transactions. In mo…
We consider the problem of learning over non-stationary ranking streams. The rankings can be interpreted as the preferences of a population and the non-stationarity means that the distribution of preferences changes over time. Our goal is to learn, in an online manner, the current distribution of rankings. The bottlene…
Excellent ranking power along with well calibrated probability estimates are needed in many classification tasks. In this paper, we introduce a technique, Calibrated Boosting-Forest that captures both. This novel technique is an ensemble of gradient boosting machines that can support both continuous and binary labels. …
Scalable model for slate recommendation learns reward probabilities.
problem Scalable personalized slate recommendation in large action spaces.
method Probabilistic Rank and Reward (PRR) model combining reward, interaction, and rank.
result PRR outperforms existing methods and is scalable to large action spaces.
Efficiently reduces tensor ranks using mean-field approximation.
problem Low-rank approximation of non-negative tensors.
method Mean-field approximation of tensor rank reduction.
result Our algorithm achieves faster and competitive tensor rank reduction.
Estimating a constrained relation is a fundamental problem in machine learning. Special cases are classification (the problem of estimating a map from a set of to-be-classified elements to a set of labels), clustering (the problem of estimating an equivalence relation on a set) and ranking (the problem of estimating a …
Paper improves uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge systems.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge frameworks.
method Generalised probabilistic modelling and improved uncertainty estimates.
result Proposed uncertainty estimates significantly improve system efficiency.
NMF and PCC linked, improving data denoising and feature stability.
problem Improving NMF's rank estimation and feature stability.
method Combining NMF and PCC for robust rank estimation and feature stability.
result NMF features are stable against noise and optimization seeds.