Study best arm identification with contextual info, achieving optimal misidentification probability.
problem Identify the best treatment arm with minimal misidentification probability in a small gap scenario.
method Developed RS-AIPW strategy that matches lower bound of misidentification probability in the small-gap regime.
result RS-AIPW strategy is asymptotically optimal for best arm identification.
Bayesian algorithm improves best-arm identification within fixed budget.
problem Maximizing probability of identifying optimal arm within fixed budget.
method Proposes Bayesian elimination algorithm and derives upper bound on misidentification probability.
result Upper bound on misidentification probability reflects prior quality and matches lower bound.
Optimizes identifying the best arm with fixed samples.
problem Finding the arm with the highest mean in a fixed number of samples.
method Characterizes minimax optimal rates and introduces algorithms to achieve them.
result Characterizes and introduces algorithms for optimal best arm identification.
New strategy optimally identifies best arm in unknown variance Gaussian bandits.
problem Identifying the best arm in two-armed Gaussian bandits with unknown variances.
method Proposes a Neyman Allocation (NA)-Augmented Inverse Probability weighting (AIPW) strategy to estimate variances and draw arms adaptively.
result Demonstrates asymptotic optimality of the proposed strategy in the small-gap regime.
Paper proposes TBSD for efficient anomaly detection in textured images.
problem Challenges in anomaly detection for textured images, especially in manufacturing systems.
method Texture basis integrated smooth decomposition (TBSD) approach.
result TBSD surpasses benchmarks with less misidentification and superior performance.
Optimal strategy found for identifying best arm in bandits with small gap.
problem Best arm identification in two-armed bandits with a fixed budget and small gap.
method Neyman allocation rule augmented with inverse probability weighting.
result Proposed strategy is asymptotically optimal when gap is small.
Behavioral cloning reduces policy learning to supervised learning by training a discriminative model to predict expert actions given observations. Such discriminative models are non-causal: the training procedure is unaware of the causal structure of the interaction between the expert and the environment. We point out …
Study optimizes identifying the best arm with fixed rounds and Gaussian outcomes.
problem Designing efficient experiments to identify the best arm with fixed rounds and Gaussian outcomes.
method Developed worst-case lower bounds and the GNA-EBA strategy for optimal identification.
result GNA-EBA strategy is asymptotically worst-case optimal.
Box Thirding identifies the best arm efficiently under limited samples.
problem Efficiently identifying the best arm with limited sampling.
method Iterative ternary comparison of arms, discarding the weakest and exploring the best.
result Achieves comparable performance to Successive Halving with less predefined parameters.
We address the M-best-arm identification problem in multi-armed bandits. A player has a limited budget to explore K arms (M<K), and once pulled, each arm yields a reward drawn (independently) from a fixed, unknown distribution. The goal is to find the top M arms in the sense of expected reward. We develop an algorithm …
We consider PAC-learning a good item from k-subsetwise feedback information sampled from a Plackett-Luce probability model, with instance-dependent sample complexity performance. In the setting where subsets of a fixed size can be tested and top-ranked feedback is made available to the learner, we give an algorithm w…
Optimal strategy identified for minimizing regret in fixed-budget best arm selection.
problem Minimizing expected simple regret in fixed-budget best arm selection.
method Two-Stage (TS)-Hirano-Imbens-Ridder (HIR) strategy using HIR estimator.
result TS-HIR strategy is asymptotically minimax optimal.
New algorithm identifies optimal subtrees in fixed-budget tree search.
problem Identifying optimal subtrees in fixed-budget Monte Carlo Tree Search.
method ε-agnostic algorithm for max-min action identification.
result Misidentification probability decays exponentially with sample size.
New method balances performance and cost in identifying best arm.
problem Identifying the best arm in multi-armed bandit models.
method Minimizes a risk functional that balances performance and cost.
result Proposes DBCARE algorithm that matches theoretical lower bounds.
This work frames reward modelling from preferences as a causal problem.
problem Reward modelling from preference data for AI alignment.
method Causal inference approach to identify challenges and assumptions.
result Causally-inspired approaches improve model robustness.
In this paper we present the construction of explicit quasi-isomorphisms that compute the cyclic homology and periodic cyclic homology of crossed-product algebras associated with (discrete) group actions. In the first part we deal with algebraic crossed-products associated with group actions on unital algebras over any…
GRACE-C improves causal learning from time series data.
problem Misleading causal information due to mismatched timescales.
method Combines constraint programming with theoretical insights and prior information.
result Significantly faster and scalable causal learning for large datasets.
Paper introduces Prob-SSI for robust OMA in noisy data.
problem Challenges in estimating modal parameters from noisy data.
method Probabilistic formulation of SSI, robust Prob-SSI algorithm.
result Robust Prob-SSI outperforms conventional SSI in corrupted data.
New concept of attitude towards probability introduced in risk sharing problems.
problem Risk sharing problems and attitudes towards probability.
method Generalized definition of probability premium, local approximation, rank-dependent utility model, dual theory.
result Attitude towards probability can be first-order or second-order, depending on the model.
Non-trivialization probability of arc system in 3D space
problem Defining and generalizing the knotting probability of an arc diagram in 3D space
method Transforming polygonal arcs in 3D space into unique arc diagrams
result Introducing and generalizing the Non-Trivialization probability (NT probability) for arc systems in 3D space
There are many advantages to use probability method for nonlinear system identification, such as the noises and outliers in the data set do not affect the probability models significantly; the input features can be extracted in probability forms. The biggest obstacle of the probability model is the probability distribu…
Identifies conditions for multiple invariant probabilities in Markov kernels.
problem Global irreducibility and recurrence do not guarantee uniqueness of invariant probabilities.
method Uses Jordan decomposition of the difference of two invariant probabilities.
result A Markov kernel has more than one invariant probability if and only if it admits a visible absorbing decomposition.
NT probability measures knotting in 3D arc systems.
problem Measuring knotting in 3D arc systems.
method Transforming polygonal arcs into unique diagrams, generalizing NT probability.
result Properties of NT probability for 3D arc systems are shown.
We give an overview of two approaches to probability theory where lower and upper probabilities, rather than probabilities, are used: Walley's behavioural theory of imprecise probabilities, and Shafer and Vovk's game-theoretic account of probability. We show that the two theories are more closely related than would be …
This work improves deep neural network probability estimation methods.
problem Estimating probabilities from high-dimensional data with inherent uncertainty.
method Investigates and compares methods for probability estimation using deep neural networks, proposing a new method that promotes consistent probabilities.
result The new method outperforms existing approaches on most metrics on simulated and real-world data.
This paper studies geometrical structure of the manifold of escort probability distributions and shows its new applicability to information science. In order to realize escort probabilities we use a conformal transformation that flattens so-called alpha-geometry of the space of discrete probability distributions, which…
A new method for adapting to label shifts using class probability matching.
problem Adapting to label shifts where class probabilities differ between source and target domains.
method Class Probability Matching using Kernel Methods (CPMKM) framework.
result CPMKM outperforms existing methods on real datasets.
Study classifies submanifolds in probability simplex.
problem Classifying submanifolds in the probability simplex.
method Complete classification through geometric analysis.
result Doubly totally-umbilical submanifolds identified and classified.
Study generalizes property elicitation to imprecise probabilities.
problem Minimizing risk over imprecise probability distributions.
method Maximin risk minimization over a set of imprecise probabilities.
result Conditions for elicitability of IP-properties.
Study on the probability of immunity and its bounds.
problem Estimating the probability of immunity and its bounds.
method Derive necessary and sufficient conditions for non-immunity and ε-bounded immunity; introduce indirect immunity; propose sensitivity analysis.
result Estimate the probability of benefit and produce tighter bounds of the probability of benefit.
This work presents a new classifier that is specifically designed to be fully interpretable. This technique determines the probability of a class outcome, based directly on probability assignments measured from the training data. The accuracy of the predicted probability can be improved by measuring more probability es…
Investigates statistical properties of perturb-softmax and perturb-argmax distributions.
problem Underexplored statistical properties of Gumbel-Softmax and Gumbel-Argmax distributions.
method Investigates convexity and differentiability to determine completeness and minimality of these distributions.
result Identifies parameters that admit complete and minimal representation of probability distributions.
Categorical d-separation criterion simplifies probability graph analysis.
problem Detecting causal relationships in probability distributions.
method Introducing categorical definitions for causal models and d-separation.
result Abstract version of d-separation criterion applies to various probability theories.
Paper constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
problem Unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
method Constructs unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
result Examples of unfaithful probability distributions in binary causal graphs.
The study examines Fisher-Riemann geodesics for nonparametric probability densities.
problem Understanding nonparametric probability densities using Fisher-Riemann geometry.
method Obtaining Fisher-Riemann geodesics as a limit of parametric cases with increasing parameters.
result The weak limit approach for nonparametric probability densities.
Study improves estimation of rare language model outputs.
problem Estimating probabilities of rare outputs in language models.
method Importance sampling vs. activation extrapolation for low probability estimation.
result Importance sampling outperforms activation extrapolation.
AI can learn true probabilities if data and assumptions align.
problem Understanding when AI models can accurately represent true objective probabilities.
method Proved conditions under which AI can learn true probabilities.
result Conditions for learning true probabilities are identified.
Quantum probability metrics improve distribution comparison in high dimensions.
problem Challenges in comparing probability distributions, especially in high-dimensional and non-compact domains.
method Quantum probability metrics (QPMs) derived from quantum state spaces, overcoming limitations of MMD.
result QPMs offer enhanced sensitivity to subtle distributional differences in high dimensions and improve performance in generative modeling.
A method for diffusion on probability simplex for generative models.
problem Tension between continuous and discrete data in diffusion models.
method Proposes using softmax function applied to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process on probability simplex.
result Method extends to bounded image generation.
Bayesian approach approximates probability functions of Gaussian mixtures.
problem Approximating probability functions of non-spherical Gaussian mixtures.
method Bayesian decomposition, spherical radial decomposition, random sampling.
result Established differentiability and integral representation of gradient for probability functions.
We describe a Groebner basis of relations among conditional probabilities in a discrete probability space, with any set of conditioned-upon events. They may be specialized to the partially-observed random variable case, the purely conditional case, and other special cases. We also investigate the connection to generali…
We study the minimax optimal rates for estimating a range of Integral Probability Metrics (IPMs) between two unknown probability measures, based on n independent samples from them. Curiously, we show that estimating the IPM itself between probability measures, is not significantly easier than estimating the probabili…
The problem of categorical data analysis in high dimensions is considered. A discussion of the fundamental difficulties of probability modeling is provided, and a solution to the derivation of high dimensional probability distributions based on Bayesian learning of clique tree decomposition is presented. The main contr…
Implied posterior probability of a given model (say, Support Vector Machines (SVM)) at a point x is an estimate of the class posterior probability pertaining to the class of functions of the model applied to a given dataset. It can be regarded as a score (or estimate) for the true posterior probability, which ca…
One of the central themes in the classification task is the estimation of class posterior probability at a new point x. The vast majority of classifiers output a score for x, which is monotonically related to the posterior probability via an unknown relationship. There are many attempts in the literature …
Obtaining accurate and well calibrated probability estimates from classifiers is useful in many applications, for example, when minimising the expected cost of classifications. Existing methods of calibrating probability estimates are applied globally, ignoring the potential for improvements by applying a more fine-gra…
We study the problem of identifying a probability distribution for some given randomly sampled data in the limit, in the context of algorithmic learning theory as proposed recently by Vinanyi and Chater. We show that there exists a computable partial learner for the computable probability measures, while by Bienvenu, M…
Paper simplifies calculating causation probabilities and ranks root causes.
problem Computational challenges in assessing causal relationships.
method Algorithmic simplifications and novel methodological framework for Root Cause Analysis.
result Significantly reduces computational complexity for calculating causation probabilities.