The paper analyzes how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions using Markowitz Stochastic Dominance criteria.
problem Understanding how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions.
method Developed stochastic optimization problems and MILP models to capture subjective decision weights and probability weighting functions.
result The developed models can be used to formulate computationally tractable portfolio analysis problems.
Investigates the effects of nondominated sets of probability measures in robust models of finance.
problem Uncertainty in financial models due to multiple possible probability measures.
method Analyzes various results from mathematical finance literature under the assumption of nondominated sets of probability measures.
result Many classical results in robust models do not hold when the set of measures is nondominated.
Expands learning paradigm to stochastic orders using Choquet-Toland distance and Variational Dominance Criterion.
problem Learning high-dimensional distributions with stochastic orders.
method Introduces Choquet-Toland distance and Variational Dominance Criterion, uses input convex maxout networks (ICMNs).
result Proposes surrogates for Choquet-Toland distance and Variational Dominance Criterion with parametric rates.
New approach for handling uncertain probabilities.
problem Handling imprecise or uncertain probabilities.
method Introducing interval probability measures and updating rules.
result Formal solution to the Keynes-Ramsey controversy.
We consider filtration consistent nonlinear expectations in probability spaces satisfying only the usual conditions and separability. Under a domination assumption, we demonstrate that these nonlinear expectations can be expressed as the solutions to Backward Stochastic Differential Equations with Lipschitz continuous …
We develop a new statistical test for comparing variables with varying scales.
problem Comparing variables with different scales in multidimensional spaces.
method Order based on expectations of random variables, generalized stochastic dominance (GSD) order, regularized statistical test, linear optimization, imprecise probability models.
result Validated through multidimensional data from various fields.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
problem Real-time evaluation and player assessment in team sports.
method Continuous dominance indicator (T-score) and T-process formulation.
result Decomposes competitive advantage into interpretable statistical components.
This paper tackles noisy multi-objective optimization with adaptive resampling using bootstrapping.
problem Challenges in optimizing noisy multi-objective problems, especially trade-offs between exploration and exploitation.
method Adaptive resampling with bootstrapping to estimate probability of dominance and improve precision.
result Demonstrates the efficiency of the resampling approach in NSGA-II algorithm under multiple noise variations.
In this report, we derive a non-negative series expansion for the Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) between two probability distributions. This series expansion is shown to be useful for numerical calculations of the JSD, when the probability distributions are nearly equal, and for which, consequently, small numerical er…
The consultative papers for the Basel II Accord require rating systems to provide a ranking of obligors in the sense that the rating categories indicate the creditworthiness in terms of default probabilities. As a consequence, the default probabilities ought to present a monotonous function of the ordered rating catego…
New method assesses multivariate stochastic dominance using Optimal Transport.
problem Benchmarking models across multiple metrics considering dependencies.
method Characterization of multivariate first stochastic dominance via couplings, entropic regularization, and Optimal Transport.
result Established CLT and consistency for the empirical statistic, enabling hypothesis testing.
We consider the robust utility maximization using a static holding in derivatives and a dynamic holding in the stock. There is no fixed model for the price of the stock but we consider a set of probability measures (models) which are not necessarily dominated by a fixed probability measure. By assuming that the set of …
In this work, we develop a novel framework to measure the similarity between dynamic financial networks, i.e., time-varying financial networks. Particularly, we explore whether the proposed similarity measure can be employed to understand the structural evolution of the financial networks with time. For a set of time-v…
This paper presents a systematic study of the notion of surplus invariance, which plays a natural and important role in the theory of risk measures and capital requirements. So far, this notion has been investigated in the setting of some special spaces of random variables. In this paper we develop a theory of surplus …
New study shows diversification can increase risk for heavy-tailed losses.
problem Diversification can increase tail risk for heavy-tailed losses.
method Comparison of diversified portfolio to a 'one-basket' benchmark.
result Diversified portfolio has larger tail probabilities than a 'one-basket' benchmark for all thresholds.
Topic models, such as Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA), posit that documents are drawn from admixtures of distributions over words, known as topics. The inference problem of recovering topics from admixtures, is NP-hard. Assuming separability, a strong assumption, [4] gave the first provable algorithm for inference. F…
Paper formalizes multi-dimensional FSD using geometric methods.
problem Complex measure theory and calculus barriers to formalization in proof assistants.
method Geometric framework for first-order stochastic dominance in N dimensions.
result Geometric approach bypasses complex integration theory for direct comparison of survival probabilities.
A new graphical method compares stochastic variables visually.
problem Comparing non-deterministic measurements visually.
method Cumulative distribution function dominance measure and quantile decomposition.
result Additional conclusions missed by other methods can be inferred.
A-GPS learns to generate Pareto sets efficiently with user preferences.
problem Online discrete multi-objective optimization with user preferences.
method Generative model with class probability estimator (CPE) for non-dominance and preference alignment.
result Amortized generative model for efficient Pareto set approximation.
The paper analyzes Adam and SGD in nonstationary optimization, revealing tradeoffs between noise and drift.
problem Analyzing Adam and SGD in nonstationary optimization problems.
method Theoretical analysis of Adam and SGD under non-stationary stochastic objectives, separating two regimes.
result Characterizes the tradeoff between noise and drift in Adam and SGD, revealing when adaptive step-sizing is beneficial or harmful.
Bayesian approach to robust risk measures under model uncertainty.
problem Representing robust risk measures as a single probability measure.
method Introducing two types of risk measures and analyzing their relation to robust risk measures.
result Robust risk measures can be represented by a mixture probability measure, a Bayesian approach.
With model uncertainty characterized by a convex, possibly non-dominated set of probability measures, the agent minimizes the cost of hedging a path dependent contingent claim with given expected success ratio, in a discrete-time, semi-static market of stocks and options. Based on duality results which link quantile he…
We provide a characterization in terms of Fatou closedness for weakly closed monotone convex sets in the space of P-quasisure bounded random variables, where P is a (possibly non-dominated) class of probability measures. Applications of our results lie within robust versions the Fundamental Theo…
We consider the fundamental theorem of asset pricing (FTAP) and hedging prices of options under non-dominated model uncertainty and portfolio constrains in discrete time. We first show that no arbitrage holds if and only if there exists some family of probability measures such that any admissible portfolio value proces…
The paper explores arbitrage opportunities in derivative markets under specific conditions.
problem Arbitrage opportunities in derivative markets under different conditions.
method Analyzes the relationship between pricing kernel monotonicity and stochastic arbitrage opportunities.
result Pricing kernel nonmonotonicity is equivalent to stochastic arbitrage opportunities under adequacy.
The paper provides statistical guarantees for generative models using dimension reduction.
problem Improving the quality of generative models without increasing dimensionality.
method Modeling generative devices as smooth transformations of a lower-dimensional space and using integral probability metrics.
result Established a risk bound showing the impact of dimension reduction on generative model error.
Study finds risk sharing without convexity assumptions.
problem Finding fair risk allocations among agents with heterogeneous beliefs.
method Combines local comonotone improvement with Dieudonné-type argument.
result Existence of Pareto optima without convexity assumption.
High-fee pools attract more liquidity but execute less volume; low-fee pools have more stable LPs.
problem Optimal liquidity supply and execution on decentralized exchanges with fixed gas costs.
method Analysis of Uniswap data to compare high- and low-fee pools.
result Fragmented liquidity leads to more LPs and competition, improving overall market efficiency.
We study the concept of financial bubble in a market model endowed with a set of probability measures, typically mutually singular to each other. In this setting we introduce the notions of robust bubble and robust fundamental value in a consistent way with the existing literature in the case a unique prior exists. The…
Paper introduces P-sensitive functions and their applications in robust optimization and financial models.
problem Developing robust models for financial and optimization problems under uncertainty.
method Introducing P-sensitive functions and their localization representations, applying to optimization and financial models.
result P-sensitive functions are precisely those that can be localized, providing a new perspective on robust modeling.
Machines, not humans, are the world's dominant knowledge accumulators but humans remain the dominant decision makers. Interpreting and disseminating the knowledge accumulated by machines requires expertise, time, and is prone to failure. The problem of how best to convey accumulated knowledge from computers to humans i…
With the daily and minutely data of the German DAX and Chinese indices, we investigate how the return-volatility correlation originates in financial dynamics. Based on a retarded volatility model, we may eliminate or generate the return-volatility correlation of the time series, while other characteristics, such as the…
We discuss price variations distributions in foreign exchange markets, characterizing them both in calendar and business time frameworks. The price dynamics is found to be the result of two distinct processes, a multi-variance diffusion and an error process. The presence of the latter, which dominates at short time sca…
In this paper, for μ and ν two probability measures on Rd with finite moments of order ρ≥1, we define the respective projections for the Wρ-Wasserstein distance of μ and ν on the sets of probability measures dominated by ν and of probability measures larger than μ in the convex order. Th…
Connected domination numbers found for plane triangulations up to 13 vertices.
problem Finding connected domination numbers for plane triangulations.
method Analyzing triangulations of up to 13 vertices and proving the difference between connected and regular domination numbers can be arbitrarily large.
result Connected domination numbers for triangulations up to 13 vertices and upper bound for larger triangulations.
The problem of robust utility maximization in an incomplete market with volatility uncertainty is considered, in the sense that the volatility of the market is only assumed to lie between two given bounds. The set of all possible models (probability measures) considered here is non-dominated. We propose studying this p…
We develop importance sampling based efficient simulation techniques for three commonly encountered rare event probabilities associated with random walks having i.i.d. regularly varying increments; namely, 1) the large deviation probabilities, 2) the level crossing probabilities, and 3) the level crossing probabilities…
We refine Expected Shortfall by controlling different tail portions, offering tailored risk assessments.
problem Risk assessment in financial positions, especially in tail regions.
method Introducing adjusted Expected Shortfall measures that control different tail portions.
result Adjusted Expected Shortfall measures ensure risk does not exceed specified thresholds for various probability levels.
Manifolds can be dominated by hypersurfaces in a sphere.
problem Dominating manifolds with hypersurfaces.
method Proving any smooth, closed, oriented manifold can be dominated by a codimension 1 submanifold of the sphere.
result Any smooth, closed, oriented manifold can be dominated by a codimension 1 submanifold of the sphere.
It is shown that the axioms for coherent risk measures imply that whenever there is an asset in a portfolio that dominates the others in a given sample (which happens with finite probability even for large samples), then this portfolio cannot be optimized under any coherent measure on that sample, and the risk measure …
We consider a financial market where stocks are available for dynamic trading, and European and American options are available for static trading (semi-static trading strategies). We assume that the American options are infinitely divisible, and can only be bought but not sold. In the first part of the paper, we work w…
Real-world problems typically require the simultaneous optimization of several, often conflicting objectives. Many of these multi-objective optimization problems are characterized by wide ranges of uncertainties in their decision variables or objective functions, which further increases the complexity of optimization. …
New method ranks multivariate distributions in SMOOP using q-dominance.
problem Lack of reliable methods to rank multivariate distributions in SMOOP.
method Introduces center-outward q-dominance and develops empirical test procedures.
result Proves q-dominance implies FSD and establishes a sample size threshold.
We propose a new Integral Probability Metric (IPM) between distributions: the Sobolev IPM. The Sobolev IPM compares the mean discrepancy of two distributions for functions (critic) restricted to a Sobolev ball defined with respect to a dominant measure μ. We show that the Sobolev IPM compares two distributions in hig…
Develops a new essential supremum concept for financial models.
problem Uncertainty in financial models with non-dominated, non-compact probability measures.
method Introduces quasi-sure essential supremum for real-valued functions and proves its properties.
result Bi-dual characterization of super-hedging cost and new results on aggregation of quasi-sure statements.
We show that non-domination results for targets that are not dominated by products are stable under Cartesian products.
New framework for ranking distributions using variable fractional parameters.
problem Ordering distributions with varying steepness and local non-concavities.
method Introducing a function γ:Ro[0,1] to replace the fixed parameter in fractional SD. result Enables ranking of a broader range of distributions and incorporates dynamic greediness.
The study examines knot probabilities in confined lattice polygons.
problem Determining the relative knotting probabilities in confined lattice knots.
method Used Monte Carlo algorithms to enumerate conformations of lattice knots in a confined volume.
result Relative knotting probabilities are small, with the model dominated by unknots.