A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Evidential Softmax preserves multimodality in sparse probability distributions for generative models.
PGF kernels analyze spherical data using generalized RBF kernels.
We show a general relation between the spatially disjoint product of probability density functions and the sum of their Fisher information metric tensors. We then utilise this result to give a method for constructing the probability density functions for an arbitrary Riemannian Fisher information metric tensor. We note…
A method for diffusion on probability simplex for generative models.
The path probability of a particle undergoing stochastic motion is studied by the use of functional technique, and the general formula is derived for the path probability distribution functional. The probability of finding paths inside a tube/band, the center of which is stipulated by a given path, is analytically eval…
Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.
Derives PF-ODE for infinite-dimensional functions, improving function generation tasks.
Exact Bayesian inference for discrete models using probability generating functions.
This paper provides a unifying view of a wide range of problems of interest in machine learning by framing them as the minimization of functionals defined on the space of probability measures. In particular, we show that generative adversarial networks, variational inference, and actor-critic methods in reinforcement l…
Implied posterior probability of a given model (say, Support Vector Machines (SVM)) at a point is an estimate of the class posterior probability pertaining to the class of functions of the model applied to a given dataset. It can be regarded as a score (or estimate) for the true posterior probability, which ca…
We formulate an optimal stopping problem for a geometric Brownian motion where the probability scale is distorted by a general nonlinear function. The problem is inherently time inconsistent due to the Choquet integration involved. We develop a new approach, based on a reformulation of the problem where one optimally c…
Optimizes functionals on probability space using ICNNs.
Recent research has made significant progress on the problem of bounding log partition functions for exponential family graphical models. Such bounds have associated dual parameters that are often used as heuristic estimates of the marginal probabilities required in inference and learning. However these variational est…
In this work we investigate to which extent one can recover class probabilities within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) paradigm. The main aim of our paper is to extend existing results and emphasize the tight relations between empirical risk minimization and class probability estimation. Based on existing literat…
Training energy-based probabilistic models is confronted with apparently intractable sums, whose Monte Carlo estimation requires sampling from the estimated probability distribution in the inner loop of training. This can be approximately achieved by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, but may still face a formidable obs…
In this contribution we derive an explicit formula for the boundary non-crossing probabilities for Slepian processes associated with the piecewise linear boundary function. This formula is used to develop an approximation formula to the boundary non-crossing probabilities for general continuous boundaries. The formulas…
New concept of attitude towards probability introduced in risk sharing problems.
Bayesian approach approximates probability functions of Gaussian mixtures.
Develops methods to find most probable paths on complex manifolds.
Brenier isotonic regression extends multi-output isotonic regression using optimal transport.
NNLMs optimize poorly for word probabilities due to embedding space structure.
FFM generates functions between Gaussian and data distributions.
In many signal detection and classification problems, we have knowledge of the distribution under each hypothesis, but not the prior probabilities. This paper is aimed at providing theory to quantify the performance of detection via estimating prior probabilities from either labeled or unlabeled training data. The erro…
Quantum probability metrics improve distribution comparison in high dimensions.
This paper studies Fenchel-Young losses, a generic way to construct convex loss functions from a regularization function. We analyze their properties in depth, showing that they unify many well-known loss functions and allow to create useful new ones easily. Fenchel-Young losses constructed from a generalized entropy, …
New Fourier analysis method for non-uniform Boolean hypercube.
Probability density estimation is a classical and well studied problem, but standard density estimation methods have historically lacked the power to model complex and high-dimensional image distributions. More recent generative models leverage the power of neural networks to implicitly learn and represent probability …
It has long been agreed by academics that the inversion method is the method of choice for generating random variates, given the availability of the quantile function. However for several probability distributions arising in practice a satisfactory method of approximating these functions is not available. The main focu…
Probabilistic models can be defined by an energy function, where the probability of each state is proportional to the exponential of the state's negative energy. This paper considers a generalization of energy-based models in which the probability of a state is proportional to an arbitrary positive, strictly decreasing…
In this paper, we propose the discrete time Compound Beta-Binomial Risk Model with by-claims, delayed by-claims and randomized dividends. We then analyze the Gerber-Shiu function for the cases where the dividend threshold and under the assumption that the constant discount rate . More specifical…
New neural networks learn mappings between probability measures and functions.
We extend rectified flow to infinite-dimensional Hilbert space.
Optimal insurance minimizes ruin probability with non-decreasing functions.
This paper optimizes functions of probability measures using particle gradient descent for displacement convex functions.
Study on optimal rates for sequential probability assignment using smoothed analysis.
We study two-layer belief networks of binary random variables in which the conditional probabilities Pr[childlparents] depend monotonically on weighted sums of the parents. In large networks where exact probabilistic inference is intractable, we show how to compute upper and lower bounds on many probabilities of intere…
New neural network models learn symmetric functions of varying input sizes.
Study shows zero probability of cut locus for Fréchet mean on Riemannian manifolds.
MPT improves CNN and energy-based models' OOD detection and generalization.
Study large deviations rates for SGD with strongly convex functions.
In this paper we study the volatility and its probability distribution function for the cumulative production based on the experience curve hypothesis. This work presents a generalization of the study of volatility in [1], which addressed the effects of normally distributed noise in the production process. Due to its w…
We consider returns of two Korean stock market indices, KOSPI and KOSDAQ index. Central parts of the probability distribution function of returns are well fitted by the Lorentzian distribution function. However, tail parts of the probability distribution function follow a power law behavior well. We found that the prob…
OPAA estimates probability densities using functional analysis.
Develops deep learning for fast, accurate option pricing models.
Quantum approach models economic decisions with probabilistic and dynamic probabilities.
MPF method improves parameter estimation in probabilistic models.
GFlowNets sample diverse candidates in active learning.
A new method calculates fractional moments using the moment-generating function.