Bayesian approach approximates probability functions of Gaussian mixtures.
problem Approximating probability functions of non-spherical Gaussian mixtures.
method Bayesian decomposition, spherical radial decomposition, random sampling.
result Established differentiability and integral representation of gradient for probability functions.
We show a general relation between the spatially disjoint product of probability density functions and the sum of their Fisher information metric tensors. We then utilise this result to give a method for constructing the probability density functions for an arbitrary Riemannian Fisher information metric tensor. We note…
Optimal insurance minimizes ruin probability with non-decreasing functions.
problem Minimizing ruin probability with insurance premiums and non-decreasing functions.
method Reformulated problem with inverse survival function as control variable.
result Deductible insurance with maximum limit is optimal.
This paper optimizes functions of probability measures using particle gradient descent for displacement convex functions.
problem Optimizing functions of probability measures with displacement convex properties.
method Particle gradient descent applied to displacement convex functions with theoretical guarantees.
result Finite number of particles and computations are sufficient to find optimal solutions for displacement convex functions.
Evidential Softmax preserves multimodality in sparse probability distributions for generative models.
problem Sparse probability distributions in deep generative models make exact marginalization computationally intractable.
method Introduce ev-softmax, a sparse normalization function that preserves multimodality and can be trained with probabilistic loss functions.
result ev-softmax outperforms existing techniques in distributional accuracy and dimensionality reduction.
The path probability of a particle undergoing stochastic motion is studied by the use of functional technique, and the general formula is derived for the path probability distribution functional. The probability of finding paths inside a tube/band, the center of which is stipulated by a given path, is analytically eval…
We consider returns of two Korean stock market indices, KOSPI and KOSDAQ index. Central parts of the probability distribution function of returns are well fitted by the Lorentzian distribution function. However, tail parts of the probability distribution function follow a power law behavior well. We found that the prob…
OPAA estimates probability densities using functional analysis.
problem Estimating probability density functions efficiently and accurately.
method OPAA uses a parallelizable algorithm based on functional analysis to estimate probability distributions.
result OPAA provides an efficient method to estimate probability density functions and normalizing weights.
The probability density function for the visible sector of a Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine can be taken conditional on a subset of the visible units. We derive that the corresponding conditional density function is given by a reparameterization of the Riemann-Theta Boltzmann machine modelling the original probability…
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function (scoring rule). Popular example of scoring rule for continuous outcomes is the …
In many applications (in particular information systems, such as pattern recognition, machine learning, cheminformatics, bioinformatics to name but a few) the assessment of uncertainty is essential - i.e., the estimation of the underlying probability distribution function. More often than not, the form of this function…
New discrepancy function compares discrete probability measures considering space geometry.
problem Comparing discrete probability measures in a geometrically meaningful way.
method Proposes the Fourier Discrepancy Function, proving convexity, differentiability, and providing gradient formula.
result Proves the Fourier Discrepancy is convex, twice differentiable, and provides an explicit gradient formula.
Implied posterior probability of a given model (say, Support Vector Machines (SVM)) at a point x is an estimate of the class posterior probability pertaining to the class of functions of the model applied to a given dataset. It can be regarded as a score (or estimate) for the true posterior probability, which ca…
In many signal detection and classification problems, we have knowledge of the distribution under each hypothesis, but not the prior probabilities. This paper is aimed at providing theory to quantify the performance of detection via estimating prior probabilities from either labeled or unlabeled training data. The erro…
This study redefines probability for finite outcomes using axioms and examples.
problem Defining probability for finite outcomes and preserving information.
method Developed three axioms for relative probability functions and provided examples and a system for their composition.
result Proved the topological closure of the relative probability space, preserving information under limits.
Conventional multiclass conditional probability estimation methods, such as Fisher's discriminate analysis and logistic regression, often require restrictive distributional model assumption. In this paper, a model-free estimation method is proposed to estimate multiclass conditional probability through a series of cond…
In this work we investigate to which extent one can recover class probabilities within the empirical risk minimization (ERM) paradigm. The main aim of our paper is to extend existing results and emphasize the tight relations between empirical risk minimization and class probability estimation. Based on existing literat…
PGF kernels analyze spherical data using generalized RBF kernels.
problem Analysis of spherical data.
method Introduced PGF kernels and a semi-parametric learning algorithm.
result PGF kernels generalize RBF kernels for spherical data.
A method for diffusion on probability simplex for generative models.
problem Tension between continuous and discrete data in diffusion models.
method Proposes using softmax function applied to Ornstein-Uhlenbeck Process on probability simplex.
result Method extends to bounded image generation.
This paper calculates the exact probability distribution of hypervolume improvement for bi-objective problems.
problem Calculating the exact probability distribution of hypervolume improvement in bi-objective problems.
method Cell partition-based method to derive the probability distribution of hypervolume improvement from a bi-variate Gaussian random variable.
result The proposed ε-PoHVI acquisition function outperforms other related functions in Bayesian optimization. New acquisition function improves batch Bayesian active learning.
problem BatchBALD conflates epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, leading to suboptimal performance.
method Focus on predictive probabilities to separate epistemic uncertainty, leading to better performance and faster evaluation.
result The new acquisition function performs better and allows for larger batches.
Survey on learning Boolean functions in computational theory.
problem Learning Boolean function classes in computational theory.
method Overview of known results in PAC and related models.
result Discussion of various learning results for Boolean functions.
This research improves demand forecasting by predicting complete probability density functions using machine learning.
problem Forecasting complete probability density functions for better operational decision making.
method Supervised machine learning method 'Cyclic Boosting' for explainable predictions.
result Predicted probability density functions are fully explainable and avoid 'black-box' models.
New concept of attitude towards probability introduced in risk sharing problems.
problem Risk sharing problems and attitudes towards probability.
method Generalized definition of probability premium, local approximation, rank-dependent utility model, dual theory.
result Attitude towards probability can be first-order or second-order, depending on the model.
A new framework for probabilistic learning using Maximum Probability Theorem.
problem Challenges in defining and quantifying model probabilities in probabilistic learning.
method Introduces a new probabilistic framework based on Maximum Probability Theorem, defining models as events with quantified probability measures.
result The probability of a model is invariant to reparameterization and depends solely on the likelihood function.
NNLMs optimize poorly for word probabilities due to embedding space structure.
problem NNLMs assign suboptimal probabilities to some words.
method Analyzed the inductive bias of NNLMs and the structure of word embeddings.
result Words on the convex hull have bounded probability, affecting others.
Paper introduces symmetric divergence link models for probability distributions.
problem Symmetric divergence measures for probability distributions.
method Two general classes of link models: one for survival functions and another for cumulative probability distribution functions.
result Advantages of symmetric divergence measures over asymmetric measures for model averaging and feature assessment.
The paper solves a financial mathematics problem using polytopes and probability measures.
problem Maximizing the expectation of functions on probability measures.
method Identifying specific functions and using polytopes to find optimal probability measures.
result The supervertex and subvertex of polytopes maximize or minimize the expected value of certain functions.
Optimizes functionals on probability space using ICNNs.
problem Optimizing functionals on the space of probabilities with high-dimensional convex functions.
method Proposes an approach using input-convex neural networks (ICNNs) to approximate the JKO scheme.
result Demonstrates feasibility and validity in approximating solutions of PDEs and molecular discovery.
New algorithm FLUTE achieves uniform-PAC convergence in RL with linear approx.
problem RL with linear function approximation lacks uniform-PAC guarantees.
method FLUTE algorithm with minimax value function estimator and multi-level partition scheme.
result Uniform-PAC convergence to optimal policy with high probability.
New bounds on continuous random variables' right-tail probabilities.
problem Finding precise upper and lower limits for right-tail probabilities of continuous random variables.
method Developed new bounds based on PDF, first derivative, and two parameters.
result The new bounds are tight for various continuous random variables.
Exact Bayesian inference for discrete models using probability generating functions.
problem Discrete statistical models with infinite support and continuous priors.
method Probabilistic programming language with automatic differentiation and probability generating functions.
result Genfer tool provides exact solutions for a wide range of inference problems.
New KQEs improve probability metrics without mean function constraints.
problem Improving probability metrics without relying on mean function representations.
method Kernel quantile embeddings (KQEs) to construct new distances.
result KQEs offer a competitive alternative to MMD with near-linear cost.
This paper provides a unifying view of a wide range of problems of interest in machine learning by framing them as the minimization of functionals defined on the space of probability measures. In particular, we show that generative adversarial networks, variational inference, and actor-critic methods in reinforcement l…
The consultative papers for the Basel II Accord require rating systems to provide a ranking of obligors in the sense that the rating categories indicate the creditworthiness in terms of default probabilities. As a consequence, the default probabilities ought to present a monotonous function of the ordered rating catego…
In this paper, we propose the discrete time Compound Beta-Binomial Risk Model with by-claims, delayed by-claims and randomized dividends. We then analyze the Gerber-Shiu function for the cases where the dividend threshold d=0 and d>0 under the assumption that the constant discount rate ν∈(0,1). More specifical…
In this contribution we derive an explicit formula for the boundary non-crossing probabilities for Slepian processes associated with the piecewise linear boundary function. This formula is used to develop an approximation formula to the boundary non-crossing probabilities for general continuous boundaries. The formulas…
Researchers calculate the Laplace transform of a geometric Brownian motion integral.
problem Calculating the Laplace transform of a specific integral functional of geometric Brownian motion.
method Analytical calculation of the Laplace transform of the cumulative distribution and probability density functions.
result The Laplace transform of the integral functional of geometric Brownian motion is derived.
New loss function reduces outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation.
problem Minimizing outage probability in ML-assisted resource allocation systems.
method Developed a novel loss function and trained an ML model to address the outage probability challenge.
result Exact and asymptotic expressions for the system's outage probability were established.
Method bounds tail probabilities of continuous RVs.
problem Bounding tail probabilities of continuous random variables.
method Setting continuous, positive, and strictly decreasing/increasing functions to derive upper and lower bounds.
result Provides tighter bounds than existing methods, including a novel asymptotic capacity bound for AWGN channel.
We formulate an optimal stopping problem for a geometric Brownian motion where the probability scale is distorted by a general nonlinear function. The problem is inherently time inconsistent due to the Choquet integration involved. We develop a new approach, based on a reformulation of the problem where one optimally c…
New neural networks learn mappings between probability measures and functions.
problem Learning mappings between Wasserstein space of probability measures and function spaces.
method Two types of neural networks: bin density and cylindrical approximation, are proposed and supported by universal approximation theorems.
result Accuracy and efficiency of mean-field neural networks in generalization error with various test distributions.
Quantum probability metrics improve distribution comparison in high dimensions.
problem Challenges in comparing probability distributions, especially in high-dimensional and non-compact domains.
method Quantum probability metrics (QPMs) derived from quantum state spaces, overcoming limitations of MMD.
result QPMs offer enhanced sensitivity to subtle distributional differences in high dimensions and improve performance in generative modeling.
We investigate the distribution function and the cumulative probability for Korean household incomes, i.e., the current, labor, and property incomes. For our case, the distribution functions are consistent with a power law. It is also showed that the probability density of income growth rates almost has the form of a e…
We study the fundamental problem of learning an unknown, smooth probability function via pointwise Bernoulli tests. We provide a scalable algorithm for efficiently solving this problem with rigorous guarantees. In particular, we prove the convergence rate of our posterior update rule to the true probability function in…
Derives PF-ODE for infinite-dimensional functions, improving function generation tasks.
problem Efficient inference in infinite-dimensional diffusion models.
method Derives PF-ODE in infinite-dimensional function spaces.
result Reduces function evaluations while maintaining sample quality.
Develops methods to find most probable paths on complex manifolds.
problem Identifying optimal paths for manifold-valued processes, especially those with non-trivial structures.
method Constructs a general approach to defining and identifying most probable paths by measuring the Onsager-Machlup function on the anti-development of such processes.
result Derives explicit equations for development most probable paths that encompass various manifold-valued processes.
The crowdsourcing scenarios are a good example of having a probability distribution over some categories showing what the people in a global perspective thinks. Learn a predictive model of this probability distribution can be of much more valuable that learn only a discriminative model that gives the most likely catego…