Novel algorithm PSO improves density estimation for multimodal data.
problem Data log-density estimation for multimodal distributions.
method Probabilistic Surface Optimization (PSO) using virtual stochastic forces.
result PSO-LDE achieves superior log-density estimation accuracy.
DeepPDF uses neural networks to estimate complex data distributions efficiently.
problem Efficiently estimating complex data distributions with high accuracy.
method DeepPDF uses a neural network to approximate a target pdf given samples, employing Probabilistic Surface Optimization (PSO) for stochastic optimization.
result DeepPDF achieves high inference accuracy for a wide range of target pdfs using a simple network structure.
Paper uses Gaussian processes and neural nets to model sub-km wind accurately.
problem Accurately modeling sub-kilometer surface wind for optimal decision-making.
method Integrates Gaussian processes and neural networks to model wind gusts at sub-kilometer resolution.
result Modeling covariance structure improves prediction quality and calibration.
Machine learning speeds up LSM parameter optimization and uncertainty quantification.
problem Optimizing and assessing uncertainty of LSM parameters.
method Combining MCMC with Gaussian process regression.
result 50,000 times faster than direct MCMC application.
Proves curves on surfaces intersect at most once, matching known constructions.
problem Curves on surfaces intersecting at most once.
method Probabilistic argument in graph theory.
result Bound on cardinality of curves on surfaces.
Bayesian optimization for probabilistic programs improves performance.
problem Optimizing probabilistic programs with arbitrary variable subsets.
method Code transformations and Bayesian optimization framework.
result Significant performance improvements over existing packages.
We present and analyze a central cutting surface algorithm for general semi-infinite convex optimization problems, and use it to develop a novel algorithm for distributionally robust optimization problems in which the uncertainty set consists of probability distributions with given bounds on their moments. Moments of a…
The study bounds the number of non-intersecting loops on a surface.
problem Bounding the number of non-intersecting loops on a surface.
method Combines probabilistic and covering space arguments, leveraging LERF property of surface groups.
result The bound matches the size of the largest known construction to within a factor of log g.
Proposes a probabilistic optimization method for large-scale problems.
problem Large-scale regularized optimization problems.
method Develops a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm and uses Bayesian filtering.
result Makes it possible to solve large-scale problems using well-known Bayesian filters.
Probabilistic proof of smooth boundaries in optimal stopping problems.
problem Continuous differentiability of time-dependent optimal boundaries in optimal stopping problems.
method Local probabilistic arguments for a wider range of conditions.
result First probabilistic proof of continuous differentiability under general conditions.
Introduces statistical optimal transport for probabilistic lectures.
problem No specific problem stated; focuses on introduction.
method Lecture-based introduction to statistical optimal transport.
result Provides an introduction to statistical optimal transport.
Probabilistic pseudo knots model uncertain knot diagrams.
problem Modeling knots with unresolved crossings.
method Assign probabilities to undetermined crossings; define probabilistic equivalence and extend classical knot invariants.
result Capture uncertainty in physical, biological, and computational contexts.
In this note, we extend an evolutionary stochastic portfolio optimization framework to include probabilistic constraints. Both the stochastic programming-based modeling environment as well as the evolutionary optimization environment are ideally suited for an integration of various types of probabilistic constraints. W…
Synthesizes static analysis for probabilistic programs.
problem Optimize learning process, verify models, improve programming interface.
method Organize and analyze static analysis techniques for probabilistic programming.
result Future directions for improvement in statistical machine learning.
Proposes VSGD optimizer combining probabilistic and gradient-based methods.
problem Uncertainty modeling in deep neural networks.
method Combines probabilistic and gradient-based approaches using SVI.
result VSGD outperforms Adam and SGD on image classification tasks.
We provide a probabilistic approach to studying minimal surfaces in three-dimensional Euclidean space. Following a discussion of the basic relationship between Brownian motion on a surface and minimality of the surface, we introduce a way of coupling Brownian motions on two minimal surfaces. This coupling is then used …
Dynamic probabilistic forecasts guide optimal decisions in uncertain processes.
problem Optimal decision making in processes influenced by uncertain random factors.
method Stochastic models for probabilistic forecast evolution, calibrated from ensemble forecasts.
result Optimal decision strategies determined using dynamic probabilistic forecasts.
We explore xor function using copula representations and error surface projections.
problem The exclusive or (xor) function and its approximation problems.
method Probabilistic logic, associative copula functions, and comparison of error surfaces with different activation functions.
result Copula representations extend xor from Boolean to real values.
Bayesian optimization uses shared latent variables for multiple systems.
problem Optimizing systems with limited data and unknown relationships.
method Shared latent variables, Bayesian inference, probabilistic metamodel.
result Performance improvement in zero-, one-, and few-shot settings.
A deep learning method for probabilistic weather forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of weather.
method Two chained machine-learning steps: dimension reduction and density estimation using normalizing flows.
result The method produces accurate conditional forecast distributions for weather.
ProBO optimizes complex systems with flexible probabilistic models.
problem Optimizing expensive functions with minimal queries.
method Uses any probabilistic programming language to define models and optimize them.
result Demonstrates efficient optimization of complex models in BO.
Unified approach for sequence design combining likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
problem Designing biological sequences efficiently and accurately.
method Unified probabilistic framework integrating likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
result Previous optimization methods can be adapted and new algorithms proposed within this framework.
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly struc…
Bayesian optimization tackles expensive discrete and mixed parameter spaces.
problem Optimizing expensive functions with discrete and mixed parameters.
method Probabilistic reparameterization to maximize expectation of AF over continuous parameters.
result Our approach provably converges to a maximizer of the AF and enjoys the same regret bounds as standard BO.
Unified approach to non-standard classification tasks.
problem Non-standard classification tasks like semi-supervised, positive-unlabelled, multi-positive-unlabelled and noisy-label learning.
method Probabilistic, unified approach training a classifier to predict label-distributions, then inferring class-distributions.
result Unified model for various non-standard classification tasks.
We consider an original problem that arises from the issue of security analysis of a power system and that we name optimal discovery with probabilistic expert advice. We address it with an algorithm based on the optimistic paradigm and on the Good-Turing missing mass estimator. We prove two different regret bounds on t…
Probabilistic models predict neural network performance across varying hyperparameters.
problem Predicting neural network performance with different hyperparameters.
method Probabilistic models based on random forests and Bayesian recurrent neural networks.
result Models outperform state-of-the-art hyperparameter optimization methods.
A deep learning method speeds up probabilistic optimal power flow calculations.
problem Efficiently solving large-scale nonlinear and nonconvex optimization problems in power systems.
method Developed a SDAE-based OPF using stacked denoising auto encoders to extract system correlations and calculate OPF solutions.
result The trained SDAE network can quickly compute OPF solutions for random system states without optimization.
New algorithm improves mean field inference in probabilistic models.
problem Improving mean field inference in probabilistic models.
method DR-DoubleGreedy algorithm for continuous DR-submodular maximization with box-constraints.
result Achieves optimal 1/2 approximation ratio for continuous DR-submodular maximization.
Forward inference techniques such as sequential Monte Carlo and particle Markov chain Monte Carlo for probabilistic programming can be implemented in any programming language by creative use of standardized operating system functionality including processes, forking, mutexes, and shared memory. Exploiting this we have …
Autoencoders improve communication system performance by optimizing constellation geometry and probability.
problem Optimizing constellation geometry and probability for better communication system performance.
method Leveraging autoencoders to learn capacity-achieving symbol distributions and constellations.
result Learned constellations achieve information rates very close to capacity on AWGN channels and outperform existing methods on fading channels.
Entropy-based method improves probabilistic learning on manifolds.
problem Learning statistical samples consistent with manifold constraints.
method Diffusion manifolds and projected Ito stochastic differential equation.
result Optimal ε value identified for maximum entropy.
In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We construct a prob…
In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We construct a prob…
Transforms input design for probabilistic models into optimal control of a Hamiltonian system.
problem Designing inputs for probabilistic models with intractable posterior distributions.
method Representing posterior as Hamiltonian system trajectories, solving optimal control problem.
result Parameter posterior concentrates around true parameter values.
Develops a new approach to optimal control of stochastic systems.
problem Optimal control of stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging.
method Formulates optimal control as input estimation, using probabilistic inference and Expectation Maximization.
result Extracts time-varying linear Gaussian feedback controllers from the joint state-action distribution.
Optimal interbank lending scheme with probabilistic bank failure constraints.
problem Optimizing interbank lending in a network of interconnected banks with probabilistic constraints on failure.
method Derive a closed-form solution for an optimal control problem, compute systemic relevance parameters.
result General solution for interbank lending with probabilistic constraints for all banks.
Study probabilistic safety of BNNs under adversarial attacks.
problem Evaluate vulnerability of BNNs to adversarial attacks.
method Relaxation techniques from non-convex optimization to compute probabilistic safety bounds.
result Certify probabilistic safety of BNNs with millions of parameters.
This article connects reinforcement learning to probabilistic inference.
problem Intelligent decision making under uncertainty.
method Generalization of reinforcement learning to probabilistic inference.
result Maximum entropy reinforcement learning is equivalent to probabilistic inference.
Adaptive volatility method improves probabilistic financial forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting in financial markets.
method Adapts classical time-varying volatility models with online stochastic optimization.
result Ranked 5th in M6 financial forecasting competition.
DYffusion improves diffusion models for spatiotemporal forecasting.
problem Challenges in generating stable and accurate forecasts for dynamic data.
method Leverages temporal dynamics in data, directly coupling it with diffusion steps.
result Improves computational efficiency and performs competitively on complex dynamics.
Solves optimal control with state constraints using probabilistic methods.
problem Optimal control of diffusion processes within state constraints.
method Probabilistic representation and optimal control under mild conditions.
result Explicit formulae for optimally controlled dynamics in examples.
New method SP-PPCA reduces outlier impact in PCA.
problem Outliers make standard PCA and PPCA less robust.
method Integrates self-paced learning into PPCA, using iterative optimization.
result SP-PPCA effectively reduces or eliminates outlier impact.
New scheme optimizes BMI through probabilistic and geometric shaping.
problem Optimizing bit-wise mutual information (BMI) for coded modulation.
method Joint optimization of BMI through probabilistic and geometric shaping.
result Joint optimization enables a continuum of constellation geometries and probability distributions.
Probabilistic method for calibrating local volatility models.
problem Calibration of nonparametric local volatility models.
method Nonparametric approach using Gaussian process prior.
result Better understanding of local volatility uncertainty and dynamics.
Simple probabilistic solution for optimal liquidation with linear price impact.
problem Maximizing expected terminal wealth in a setup with quadratic transaction costs.
method Provided a simple probabilistic solution to the problem.
result Simple and probabilistic form of the solution not previously published.
Study Brownian loops on hyperbolic surfaces, linking to Selberg zeta function.
problem Understanding Brownian loops on hyperbolic surfaces and their relation to Selberg zeta function.
method Computed mass of loops and related to Selberg zeta function for geometrically finite surfaces.
result Relate total loop mass to Selberg zeta function, providing probabilistic interpretations of determinants.
A new probabilistic framework for optimal transport using collective graphical models.
problem Measuring similarity between probability distributions and histograms.
method Probabilistic Optimal Transport based on Collective Graphical Models.
result OT with entropic regularization is equivalent to maximizing a posterior probability of a CGM.