A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
pRSL combines probabilistic rules to improve multi-label classification.
Generative networks minimize predictive scoring rules for probabilistic forecasting.
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
Mining association rules is an important technique for discovering meaningful patterns in transaction databases. Many different measures of interestingness have been proposed for association rules. However, these measures fail to take the probabilistic properties of the mined data into account. In this paper, we start …
New scoring rules improve probabilistic classification model evaluation.
Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
We provide self-contained proof of a theorem relating probabilistic coherence of forecasts to their non-domination by rival forecasts with respect to any proper scoring rule. The theorem appears to be new but is closely related to results achieved by other investigators.
ProSMIN improves representation quality through probabilistic self-supervised learning.
Signature kernel scoring rule improves weather forecasting by capturing temporal and spatial dependencies.
New tree splitting criteria improve probabilistic predictions.
Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
Interpretable classifiers have recently witnessed an increase in attention from the data mining community because they are inherently easier to understand and explain than their more complex counterparts. Examples of interpretable classification models include decision trees, rule sets, and rule lists. Learning such mo…
A method for concept-based learning using probabilistic inference and expert rules.
Abstraction and realization are bilateral processes that are key in deriving intelligence and creativity. In many domains, the two processes are approached through rules: high-level principles that reveal invariances within similar yet diverse examples. Under a probabilistic setting for discrete input spaces, we focus …
Study identifies regions where scoring rules reliably detect forecast errors.
A new probabilistic model for semi-supervised learning unifies various methods.
Spiking neural networks (SNNs) are distributed trainable systems whose computing elements, or neurons, are characterized by internal analog dynamics and by digital and sparse synaptic communications. The sparsity of the synaptic spiking inputs and the corresponding event-driven nature of neural processing can be levera…
A new gradient boosting method improves interpretability of probabilistic models.
Improves generative models for cost-sensitive decisions.
Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are distributed trainable systems whose computing elements, or neurons, are characterized by internal analog dynamics and by digital and sparse synaptic communications. The sparsity of the synaptic spiking inputs and the corresponding event-driven nature of neural processing can be levera…
Unified theory for neural scaling laws in hierarchically compositional data.
Proposes a cost-sensitive method to generate probabilistic SVM outputs.
The article reviews scoring rules for estimating and evaluating forecasts.
Conventional techniques for supervised classification constrain the classification rules considered and use surrogate losses for classification 0-1 loss. Favored families of classification rules are those that enjoy parametric representations suitable for surrogate loss minimization, and low complexity properties suita…
This research focuses on invariant probabilistic predictions, showing they are not robust under distribution shifts.
This paper considers generalized linear models using rule-based features, also referred to as rule ensembles, for regression and probabilistic classification. Rules facilitate model interpretation while also capturing nonlinear dependences and interactions. Our problem formulation accordingly trades off rule set comple…
In this paper we formulate a probabilistic model for class-specific discriminant subspace learning. The proposed model can naturally incorporate the multi-modal structure of the negative class, which is neglected by existing class-specific methods. Moreover, it can be directly used to define a class-specific probabilis…
Statistical relational models provide compact encodings of probabilistic dependencies in relational domains, but result in highly intractable graphical models. The goal of lifted inference is to carry out probabilistic inference without needing to reason about each individual separately, by instead treating exchangeabl…
Deep learning uses layers of transformations to predict structured data with uncertainty.
This paper introduces a new learning rule for probabilistic SNNs that improves log-likelihood, accuracy, and calibration.
Proposes PRMs for interpreting financial risk concept drift.
Study compares different scoring rules for machine-learned weather forecasts, finding scale-awareness improves forecast realism.
The paper explores how to handle uncertain evidence in probabilistic models.
In this paper, we study the problem of learning probabilistic logical rules for inductive and interpretable link prediction. Despite the importance of inductive link prediction, most previous works focused on transductive link prediction and cannot manage previously unseen entities. Moreover, they are black-box models …
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic optimization method, named probabilistic incremental proximal gradient (PIPG) method, by developing a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm. We explicitly model the update rules of the incremental proximal gradient method and develop a syst…
SBAMDT uses adaptive soft splits to model complex decision boundaries.
This paper considers exponential utility indifference pricing for a multidimensional non-traded assets model, and provides two linear approximations for the utility indifference price. The key tool is a probabilistic representation for the utility indifference price by the solution of a functional differential equation…
Active WeaSuL uses active learning to improve weak supervision for better model performance.
Bayesian optimization stops when a solution is within ε of the optimum with high probability.
This thesis improves deep sequence models by integrating probabilistic methods for uncertainty quantification.
Probabilistic forecasts in the form of probability distributions over future events have become popular in several fields of statistical science. The dissimilarity between a probability forecast and an outcome is measured by a loss function (scoring rule). Popular example of scoring rule for continuous outcomes is the …
Paper justifies ideal point forecasts as measurable, clarifying conditions for their existence.
We present a simple theoretical framework, and corresponding practical procedures, for comparing probabilistic models on real data in a traditional machine learning setting. This framework is based on the theory of proper scoring rules, but requires only basic algebra and probability theory to understand and verify. Th…
Estimates proper calibration errors and refinement terms in probabilistic predictions.
We consider the problem of how decision making can be fair when the underlying probabilistic model of the world is not known with certainty. We argue that recent notions of fairness in machine learning need to explicitly incorporate parameter uncertainty, hence we introduce the notion of {\em Bayesian fairness} as a su…
There has been much recent interest in application of the pool-adjacent-violators (PAV) algorithm for the purpose of calibrating the probabilistic outputs of automatic pattern recognition and machine learning algorithms. Special cost functions, known as proper scoring rules form natural objective functions to judge the…
A new type of distributional regression tree uses soft split rules for better predictive performance.
We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the cov…