Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,341 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

4283125166 · Jun 202019922001200920182026
48 results for probabilistic receiver

New probabilistic receiver combines BP, MF, and EP for multi-signal detection.

problem Ineffective MF approximation for multi-signal detection.
method Developed a new factor graph construction and low-complexity variant of BP-MF for multi-signal detection.
result Probabilistic receiver architecture with strong theoretical justification for multi-signal detection.

Model aggregates answers with peer predictions, inferring world states.

problem Aggregating answers from multiple respondents without assuming consensus correctness.
method Probabilistic model incorporating respondent signals and predictions.
result Model infers world states and respondent expertise, outperforming other models.

New algorithm minimizes regret in multi-agent bandit problem with probabilistic communication.

problem Minimizing group regret in multi-agent multi-armed bandit problem with probabilistic communication.
method Proposes a new UCB-based algorithm for decentralized multi-agent multi-armed bandit problem on dd-regular graphs with probabilistic communication.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in minimizing group regret.

New method for probabilistic modeling of integer submodular functions.

problem Lack of probabilistic modeling for integer submodular functions.
method Proposed Generalized Multilinear Extension and block-coordinate ascent algorithm.
result Demonstrated effectiveness and viability on real-world datasets.

Etalumis bridges scientific simulators and probabilistic programming.

problem Infeasibility of rewriting scientific simulators for Bayesian inference.
method Cross-platform probabilistic execution protocol, MCMC and IC engines, distributed training of 3DCNN-LSTM.
result Achieved largest-scale posterior inference in a Turing-complete PPL for LHC use-case.

Paper optimizes material microstructures with limited data using probabilistic methods.

problem Optimizing material properties with uncertain process-structure-property links.
method Flexible probabilistic formulation, data-driven surrogate, active learning.
result Significant improvement in accuracy with small training data.

Proposes a framework for learning constrained motor skills.

problem Learning constrained motor skills in robotic systems.
method Exploits probabilistic properties of multiple demonstrations in a linearly constrained optimization problem.
result Proposes a non-parametric solution for constrained motor skills.

Improved learning of probabilistic box embeddings by modeling parameters with Gumbel distributions.

problem Local identifiability issues in geometric embeddings.
method Modeling box parameters with min and max Gumbel distributions, calculating expected intersection volume.
result Improves the ability of probabilistic box embeddings to learn.

A new method for efficient probabilistic meta-learning.

problem High-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates require large amounts of data.
method Amortised Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks (APOVI-BNN)
result The APOVI-BNN produces high-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates using significantly less data.

Neural Calibration improves reliability of probabilistic predictions by learning from field-aware information.

problem Miscalibration of probabilistic predictions in machine learning models.
method Neural Calibration, a simple yet powerful post-hoc calibration method that learns from field-aware information.
result Neural Calibration significantly improves reliability in metrics like negative log-likelihood, Brier score, and AUC.

Efficiently combines probabilistic predictions using kernel embeddings.

problem Combining multiple probabilistic predictions to improve forecast accuracy.
method Embed predictions into RKHS, optimizes kernel-based scoring rules, finds efficient implementation.
result Generalised linear pool outperforms traditional linear pool in operational wind speed forecasts.

We integrate camera pose correlations into deep models using Gaussian processes.

problem Lack of inter-frame reasoning in deep neural networks.
method Derive a principled framework combining camera pose information with deep models using a novel view kernel.
result Soft-prior knowledge aids pose-related vision tasks like novel view synthesis.

This paper optimizes kernel and acquisition functions for high-dimensional Bayesian Optimization.

problem Bayesian Optimization struggles with high-dimensional problems due to computational inefficiency.
method The paper leverages the additionality of the objective function to map kernel and acquisition functions in lower-dimensional subspaces, improving efficiency.
result Efficient optimization of acquisition function in high-dimensional problems.

Proposes a new metric learning method for image recognition.

problem Improving image recognition performance using learned distance representations.
method Introduces a Generalized Hybrid Metric Loss (GHM-Loss) to learn hybrid proximity features combining geometric and probabilistic spaces.
result Demonstrates superior performance compared to existing methods on public datasets.

A new method for blind source separation using hierarchical structure and KL divergence.

problem Blind source separation of complex interacting signals.
method Hierarchical log-linear model with KL divergence minimization.
result Superior performance compared to existing techniques on images and time series data.

Evidence acquisition costs influence disclosure behavior and preference.

problem How evidence acquisition costs affect disclosure behavior and preference.
method Analyzes sender-receiver interactions with covert and overt evidence acquisition, varying certification costs.
result Equilibria converge to the Pareto-worst free-learning equilibrium as costs vanish, and receivers prefer covert to overt acquisition.

This paper presents a ML-based receiver for SDR that outperforms conventional methods.

problem Complexity and performance issues in multiuser detection.
method Supervised learning for direct symbol detection without parameter estimation.
result The ML-based receiver achieves similar or better performance than SIC and MMSE receivers.

The paper combines Bitcoin price models with expert corrections for better predictions.

problem Improving Bitcoin price predictions using statistical and expert insights.
method Linear regression models combined with expert corrections, utilizing Bayesian approach for fat-tailed distributions.
result Better price prediction results compared to using either model or expert opinion alone.

Enhances NOAA's Geospace model with machine learning for predicting ground magnetic perturbations.

problem Predicting the probability of ground magnetic field changes.
method Combining physics-based model with machine learning (boosted ensemble of classification trees).
result The ML-enhanced model consistently improves probabilistic forecast metrics.

The study forecasts hourly intraday electricity prices using ensemble methods.

problem Weak-form efficiency of hourly German Intraday Continuous Market prices.
method Probabilistic forecasting with ensemble trajectories, generalized additive model, and lasso penalty.
result The mixture model outperforms benchmarks in forecasting price distribution and volatility.

A new model improves analysis of neural activity from calcium imaging.

problem Statistical modeling of deconvolved calcium signals for neural activity interpretation.
method Proposed a zero-inflated gamma (ZIG) model to characterize calcium responses as a mixture of a gamma distribution and a point mass.
result The ZIG model outperforms simpler models in neural encoding and decoding problems.

One of the fundamental tasks of science is to find explainable relationships between observed phenomena. One approach to this task that has received attention in recent years is based on probabilistic graphical modelling with sparsity constraints on model structures. In this paper, we describe two new approaches to Bay…

2013-09-27abs ↗pdf ↗

Bayesian neural networks are shown to be minimax and admissible under certain conditions.

problem Optimality of Bayesian neural networks in deep learning models.
method Analysis of decision rules induced by BNNs in the normal location model under quadratic loss.
result A hyperprior on the effective output variance yields a minimax and admissible decision rule.

Paper defends deep learning classifiers against channel-aware adversarial attacks.

problem Deep learning classifiers are vulnerable to adversarial attacks.
method Channel-aware adversarial attacks are presented and defended against.
result Certified defense based on randomized smoothing makes classifiers robust.

New method reduces SBL complexity from cubic to linear, improving scalability.

problem Sparse Bayesian Learning's high computational complexity for large feature spaces.
method DQN-SBL, a diagonal Quasi-Newton method for SBL.
result DQN-SBL achieves competitive generalization with sparse models, scaling well to large-scale problems.

Community detection in networks is a key exploratory tool with applications in a diverse set of areas, ranging from finding communities in social and biological networks to identifying link farms in the World Wide Web. The problem of finding communities or clusters in a network has received much attention from statisti…

2013-11-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Paper studies estimating network properties with missing data using SRL and GNN.

problem Estimating aggregate properties in networks with missing data attributes.
method Comparative study of SRL and GNN approaches for inferring missing attributes and estimating aggregate properties.
result SRL-based approaches tend to outperform GNN-based approaches in estimating aggregate properties and predictive accuracy.

Adversaries can fool deep learning modulator classifiers over wireless channels.

problem Vulnerability of deep learning modulator classifiers to adversarial attacks over wireless channels.
method Presented various adversarial attacks considering channel effects, including targeted and non-targeted attacks, and a universal adversarial perturbation attack.
result Modulation classification is vulnerable to adversarial attacks over wireless channels with realistic channel effects.

Contextual PDA improves explanation of image classifications for saturated models.

problem Difficulty in explaining decisions of saturated classifiers.
method Proposes Contextual PDA, a faster method for explaining image classifications.
result Contextual PDA outperforms PDA in explaining image classifications of state-of-the-art deep networks.

Multiple kernel learning (MKL), structured sparsity, and multi-task learning have recently received considerable attention. In this paper, we show how different MKL algorithms can be understood as applications of either regularization on the kernel weights or block-norm-based regularization, which is more common in str…

2010-11-13abs ↗pdf ↗

A new experimental design method for combinatorial interventions reduces complexity and improves accuracy.

problem Efficiently conducting all possible combinatorial interventions with multiple treatments and potential interactions.
method Probabilistic factorial experimental design, applying random combinations of treatments and adapting over multiple rounds.
result Optimal dosage of 1/2 for each treatment yields near-optimal design for estimating any k-way interaction model.

New framework and method for online inverse reinforcement learning improves performance and speed.

problem Learning agent preferences from incremental observations in real-time applications.
method Incremental Inverse Reinforcement Learning (I2RL) with maximum entropy IRL for hidden variables.
result The new method has monotonically improving performance and probabilistically bounded error with more data.