Paper analyzes GCNN sensitivity to probabilistic graph perturbations.
problem Investigating how GCNNs handle probabilistic graph errors.
method Establishes error bounds and linear relationships between GSO perturbations and GCNN outputs.
result GCNNs maintain stability under graph edge perturbations if GSO errors are bounded.
PRoA assesses deep learning robustness against practical functional perturbations.
problem Inadequate practical robustness verification methods for deep learning systems.
method Probabilistic robustness assessment based on adaptive concentration.
result Statistical guarantees on probabilistic robustness against functional perturbations.
Study on stability of GCNNs under graph perturbations.
problem Limited theoretical understanding of GCNN stability.
method Proposes a probabilistic framework to analyze GCNN stability under various graph perturbations.
result Demonstrates the importance of data distribution in stability analysis.
This paper improves conformal prediction to be robust to perturbations.
problem Ensuring robustness of conformal prediction to natural and adversarial perturbations.
method Probabilistically robust conformal prediction (PRCP) and its adaptive version (aPRCP).
result aPRCP achieves better trade-offs between nominal performance and robustness.
We present PROPS, a lightweight transfer learning mechanism for sequential data. PROPS learns probabilistic perturbations around the predictions of one or more arbitrarily complex, pre-trained black box models (such as recurrent neural networks). The technique pins the black-box prediction functions to "source nodes" o…
With deep neural networks providing state-of-the-art machine learning models for numerous machine learning tasks, quantifying the robustness of these models has become an important area of research. However, most of the research literature merely focuses on the \textit{worst-case} setting where the input of the neural …
COLEP improves robustness of conformal prediction via probabilistic circuits.
problem Adversarial perturbations can undermine the coverage guarantees of conformal prediction.
method COLEP uses probabilistic circuits to learn and reason about different semantic concepts, providing certifiable coverage guarantees.
result COLEP achieves higher prediction coverage and accuracy than a single model, especially with non-trivial knowledge models.
Proposes a probabilistic digital twin for dynamical systems using sparse Bayesian learning.
problem Creating and updating accurate digital twins for complex dynamical systems.
method Sparse Bayesian machine learning, two approaches: input-output and output-only.
result Identifies correct perturbation terms and associated parameters in dynamical systems.
Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.
problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.
Study probabilistic safety of BNNs under adversarial attacks.
problem Evaluate vulnerability of BNNs to adversarial attacks.
method Relaxation techniques from non-convex optimization to compute probabilistic safety bounds.
result Certify probabilistic safety of BNNs with millions of parameters.
New framework for fair ranking with noisy protected attributes.
problem Errors in socially-salient attributes undermine fairness guarantees.
method Modeling perturbations in protected attributes and incorporating probabilistic information.
result Framework provides provable guarantees on fairness and utility.
We consider the structured-output prediction problem through probabilistic approaches and generalize the "perturb-and-MAP" framework to more challenging weighted Hamming losses, which are crucial in applications. While in principle our approach is a straightforward marginalization, it requires solving many related MAP …
Develops effective adversarial attacks on probabilistic forecasting models.
problem Adversarial attacks on neural models outputting probability distributions.
method Effective generation of adversarial attacks through Monte-Carlo estimation and Bayesian conditioning.
result Demonstrates successful generation of attacks with small input perturbations.
Study stability of contingent claim solutions under probabilistic perturbations.
problem Stability of solutions to discrete-time contingent-claim problems under uncertainty.
method Use Rockafellian perturbations to analyze stability of solutions.
result Establishes convergence of dual problems and shadow prices.
New bounds on AE success probability in GP models.
problem Limiting the success of adversarial examples in probabilistic models.
method Investigated upper bounds on AE success probability using Gaussian Processes.
result Proved a new upper bound of AE success probability dependent on perturbation norm, kernel function, and training dataset distance.
In this work, we have presented a simple analytical approximation scheme for generic non-linear FBSDEs. By treating the interested system as the linear decoupled FBSDE perturbed with non-linear generator and feedback terms, we have shown that it is possible to carry out a recursive approximation to an arbitrarily highe…
A new attack for probabilistic classifiers adapts to noise levels.
problem Adversarial examples can mislead probabilistic classifiers.
method Adapts HopSkipJump attack for probabilistic classifiers, adjusting queries based on noise levels.
result Decision-based attacks are effective against probabilistic classifiers, even with noise.
We consider log-supermodular models on binary variables, which are probabilistic models with negative log-densities which are submodular. These models provide probabilistic interpretations of common combinatorial optimization tasks such as image segmentation. In this paper, we focus primarily on parameter estimation in…
New method for robustly interpreting ML models using quantile constraints and Wasserstein projections.
problem Assessing robustness of black-box models to input misspecification.
method Quantile-constrained Wasserstein projections for robust interpretability.
result Analytical solution for perturbation problem and smooth perturbations.
We introduce a unified framework for solving first passage times of time-homogeneous diffusion processes. According to the killed version potential theory and the perturbation theory, we are able to deduce closed-form solutions for probability densities of single-sided level crossing problem. The framework is applicabl…
EBMs trained on discrete data using heat equations on graph structures.
problem Training EBMs on discrete or mixed data.
method Heat equations on graph structures for data perturbation.
result Efficacy demonstrated in various applications.
Machine Learning models have been shown to be vulnerable to adversarial examples, ie. the manipulation of data by a attacker to defeat a defender's classifier at test time. We present a novel probabilistic definition of adversarial examples in perfect or limited knowledge setting using prior probability distributions o…
Paper provides an explicit formula for local volatility in Cheyette models.
problem Approximating local volatility in Cheyette interest rate models.
method Extended Dupire framework, perturbation methods, probabilistic techniques.
result Explicit analytical formula for local volatility in Cheyette models.
We develop a formalism to study linearized perturbations around the equilibria of a pure exchange economy. With the use of mean field theory techniques, we derive equations for the flow of products in an economy driven by heterogeneous preferences and probabilistic interaction between agents. We are able to show that i…
Estimates risk in finance using Wasserstein distance and parametric models.
problem Assessing risk in financial models with model uncertainty.
method Parametric approach based on Wasserstein distance for convex risk functionals.
result Developed a numerical method using neural networks to estimate risk and optimal perturbations.
Proposes a new framework for balancing average- and worst-case performance in machine learning.
problem Robustness issues in machine learning, especially in safety-critical domains.
method Probabilistic robustness framework that balances average- and worst-case performance.
result Effective algorithm balances average- and worst-case performance with lower computational cost.
Method improves microbial biomass yield estimation from noisy data.
problem Estimating microbial biomass yields from noisy cell counts and substrate measurements.
method Probabilistic macrochemical modeling to relax cell weight assumptions and improve robustness.
result Model provides accurate uncertainty estimates of key parameters.
We construct a path integral based on the coupling of the Liouville action and the Mabuchi K-energy on a one-dimensional complex manifold. To the best of our knowledge this is the first rigorous construction of such an object and this is done by means of probabilistic tools. Both functionals play an important role resp…
Bayesian Transformer improves probabilistic load forecasting with calibrated uncertainty estimates.
problem Overconfident point predictions from deep learning models fail under extreme weather distributional shifts.
method Integrates three uncertainty mechanisms: MC Dropout, variational layers, and stochastic attention.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance with CRPS of 0.0289 and 90% PICP across various horizons.
New robustness test for kernel goodness-of-fit tests.
problem Lack of robustness in existing kernel goodness-of-fit tests.
method Proposes a new robust kernel goodness-of-fit test using kernel Stein discrepancy (KSD) balls.
result First robust kernel goodness-of-fit test addressing both qualitative and quantitative robustness.
A new method improves robustness in image translation by modeling uncertainty.
problem Performance degradation in image translation models due to lack of robustness to outliers and uncertainty.
method UGAC method based on Uncertainty-aware Generalized Adaptive Cycle Consistency, modeling per-pixel residual with generalized Gaussian distribution.
result Our method exhibits stronger robustness towards unseen perturbations in test data.
Despite their numerous successes, there are many scenarios where adversarial risk metrics do not provide an appropriate measure of robustness. For example, test-time perturbations may occur in a probabilistic manner rather than being generated by an explicit adversary, while the poor train--test generalization of adver…
New methods quantify uncertainties in AI weather forecasts.
problem Uncertainty in AI weather predictions.
method Comparing ensemble and post-hoc uncertainty quantification methods.
result Probabilistic forecasts improve over ensemble physics-based models.
Develops a new robustness criterion for VAEs and provides theoretical guarantees.
problem Lack of formalization for robustness in VAEs.
method Introduces r-robustness criterion and derives reconstruction margins. result Derives theoretical guarantees for VAE robustness.
The paper develops a Feynman-Kac formula for perturbations of order ≤ 1 in noncommutative geometry.
problem Analyzing perturbations of order ≤ 1 in noncommutative geometry.
method Develops a Feynman-Kac formula for differential operators of order ≤ 1 on complex metric vector bundles over Riemannian manifolds.
result Explicit Feynman-Kac type formula for holomorphic semigroups generated by Q. New algorithm robust to probabilistic unbounded adversarial attacks in bandit problems.
problem Powerful adversaries that can catastrophically perturb the revealed reward in bandit problems.
method Proposes med-E-UCB and med-ε-greedy algorithms based on sample median for robustness. result Achieves O(logT) pseudo-regret under arbitrary and unbounded reward perturbation. New method improves robustness of smoothed classifiers.
problem Improving accuracy and robustness of smoothed classifiers.
method Regularized risk with adaptive regularization.
result Tighter robustness bounds with high probability.
Quantum approach models economic decisions with probabilistic and dynamic probabilities.
problem Traditional economic models fail to explain recent financial crises.
method Develops a quantum probabilistic framework for economics.
result Quantum circuits can model cognitive phenomena like preference reversal.
We present a probabilistic framework for studying adversarial attacks on discrete data. Based on this framework, we derive a perturbation-based method, Greedy Attack, and a scalable learning-based method, Gumbel Attack, that illustrate various tradeoffs in the design of attacks. We demonstrate the effectiveness of thes…
We present a novel algorithm that predicts the probability that the time derivative of the horizontal component of the ground magnetic field dB/dt exceeds a specified threshold at a given location. This quantity provides important information that is physically relevant to Geomagnetically Induced Currents (GIC), whic…
Paper establishes fast convergence theory for diffusion models under minimal assumptions.
problem Establish theoretical guarantees for diffusion models under minimal assumptions.
method Developed a convergence theory for denoising diffusion probabilistic models (DDPM) under minimal assumptions.
result Achieved convergence rate of O(d/T) for target distributions with finite first-order moment.
Bayesian ANN method predicts chaotic systems with uncertainty.
problem Estimating chaotic dynamical systems from noisy data.
method Bayesian Artificial Neural Networks for ODE inverse problems.
result Accurate time predictions and uncertainty bounds.
Using probabilistic methods, we first define Liouville quantum field theory on Riemann surfaces of genus g≥2 and show that it is a conformal field theory. We use the partition function of Liouville quantum field theory to give a mathematical sense to Polyakov's partition function of noncritical bosonic s…
Improved covariate shift handling with node-based Bayesian neural networks.
problem Improving generalization under covariate shift in neural networks.
method Introduced node-based Bayesian neural networks that learn latent noise variables to represent input corruptions.
result Node-based BNNs perform well under covariate shift due to input perturbations, improving uncertainty estimation and robustness.
Differentially private method for estimating individualized treatment rules.
problem Estimating individualized treatment rules while preserving privacy.
method Differentially private two-stage empirical risk minimization (DP-2ERM).
result Improved privacy-utility trade-off demonstrated through simulations and applications.
PIE-PINN estimates elastic properties from noisy, low-res displacement data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous elastic properties from low-resolution, noisy data.
method Probabilistic Physics-Informed Neural Network (PIE-PINN) framework combining B-spline and hierarchical scale model.
result Robust estimation of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio from noisy, low-resolution displacement data.
Bayesian optimization improves policy search in reinforcement learning.
problem Finding optimal policies with high variance estimates from random samples.
method Develops an algorithm combining Bayesian optimization and policy gradients.
result Improves sample complexity and reduces variance in empirical evaluations.
A test detects unfairness in machine learning classifiers.
problem Detecting and mitigating algorithmic biases in machine learning.
method Optimal transport theory to quantify and mitigate bias.
result Proposes a statistical test for detecting unfair classifiers.