Transformers interpreted as probabilistic Laplacian Eigenmaps steps.
problem Improving transformer performance through probabilistic interpretation.
method Probabilistic Laplacian Eigenmaps model derivation and graph diffusion step.
result Subtracting identity from attention matrix improves transformer performance.
PGBM creates probabilistic predictions efficiently.
problem Creating probabilistic predictions for large-scale data.
method Approximates leaf weights as random variables, learns moments via stochastic tree ensemble update equations.
result PGBM offers significant speedup and accuracy improvements over existing methods.
Improved probabilistic solar irradiance forecasting models for grid integration.
problem Enhancing accuracy of solar irradiance forecasts for grid integration.
method Developed and calibrated probabilistic models using post-hoc calibration techniques.
result NGBoost model with CRUDE calibration achieves comparable performance to numerical weather prediction models.
The choice of constellations largely affects the performance of communication systems. When designing constellations, both the locations and probability of occurrence of the points can be optimized. These approaches are referred to as geometric and probabilistic shaping, respectively. Usually, the geometry of the const…
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argu…
Probabilistic modeling enables combining domain knowledge with learning from data, thereby supporting learning from fewer training instances than purely data-driven methods. However, learning probabilistic models is difficult and has not achieved the level of performance of methods such as deep neural networks on many …
A-NeSI scales approximate inference for probabilistic neurosymbolic learning.
problem Combining neural networks with symbolic reasoning for scalable inference.
method A-NeSI: a new framework for PNL using neural networks for approximate inference.
result A-NeSI achieves scalable approximate inference without semantic changes.
Proposes a deep learning model for probabilistic forecasting that is also interpretable.
problem Inability to explain predictions of neural network-based time series forecasting methods.
method Deep Autoregressive Networks (DANLIP) for locally interpretable probabilistic forecasting.
result DANLIP provides interpretable predictions with comparable performance to state-of-the-art methods.
Framework uses probabilistic programming for physics simulation in games.
problem Efficiently simulate physics in games using probabilistic programming.
method Combines model-free and model-based approaches to improve efficiency.
result Model outperforms model-free or model-based approaches alone.
This research focuses on invariant probabilistic predictions, showing they are not robust under distribution shifts.
problem The challenge of creating robust probabilistic predictions that remain consistent under distribution shifts.
method A causality-inspired framework to investigate invariance and robustness of probabilistic predictions with respect to proper scoring rules.
result Arbitrary distribution shifts do not admit invariant and robust probabilistic predictions, unlike point predictions.
End-to-end approach for weak supervision improves downstream model performance.
problem Data-labeling bottleneck in machine learning applications.
method Directly learning the downstream model by maximizing its agreement with probabilistic labels generated from weak supervision sources.
result Improved performance over prior work in terms of downstream model performance and robustness.
In this paper we formulate a probabilistic model for class-specific discriminant subspace learning. The proposed model can naturally incorporate the multi-modal structure of the negative class, which is neglected by existing class-specific methods. Moreover, it can be directly used to define a class-specific probabilis…
Hybrid model combines continuous and tractable probabilistic models.
problem Intractable probabilistic inference in continuous latent-space models.
method Continuous mixtures of tractable probabilistic models with finite integration points.
result Hybrid models achieve state-of-the-art performance in density estimation.
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.
Probabilistic Autoencoder learns latent space weights' distribution.
problem Nonlinear model reconstruction error and sample quality.
method Normalizing flow for latent space weights' probability distribution.
result PAE achieves small reconstruction errors, high sample quality, and good performance.
We present the preliminary high-level design and features of DynamicPPL.jl, a modular library providing a lightning-fast infrastructure for probabilistic programming. Besides a computational performance that is often close to or better than Stan, DynamicPPL provides an intuitive DSL that allows the rapid development of…
New method for efficient probabilistic deep state-space models.
problem Efficient inference for probabilistic deep state-space models.
method Deterministic inference algorithm for ProDSSM with neural network weights.
result Superior balance between predictive performance and computational budget.
New CNN approach reduces overconfidence in object classification predictions.
problem Overconfident predictions from deep models, especially SoftMax layer.
method Introduces CNN probabilistic approach using Logit layer for Bayesian inference.
result Proposed approach shows promising performance compared to SoftMax.
Probabilistic solvers improve stability for stiff systems.
problem Performance penalties for small steps in stiff systems.
method Probabilistic exponential integrators that include fast linear dynamics in the prior.
result Proven L-stability and probabilistic error accounting.
We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation …
Generative networks minimize predictive scoring rules for probabilistic forecasting.
problem Evaluating and improving probabilistic forecasts using generative models.
method Training generative networks to minimize predictive-sequential scoring rules on temporal sequences.
result Our method outperforms adversarial approaches in probabilistic calibration.
SQR Averaging improves probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate short-term price forecasting in electricity markets.
method Smoothing Quantile Regression Averaging.
result SQR Averaging leads to profit increases of up to 3.5% in day-ahead power trading.
Most of Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms in existing probabilistic programming systems suboptimally use only model priors as proposal distributions. In this work, we describe an approach for training a discriminative model, namely a neural network, in order to approximate the …
Paper proposes a method for weather-informed probabilistic forecasting and scenario generation in power systems.
problem Challenges of integrating renewable energy sources into power grids due to their stochasticity and uncertainty.
method Combines probabilistic forecasting and Gaussian copula for day-ahead prediction and scenario generation of load, wind, and solar power.
result Demonstrates superior performance of the proposed weather-informed Temporal Fusion Transformer (WI-TFT) model.
We present a probabilistic variant of the recently introduced maxout unit. The success of deep neural networks utilizing maxout can partly be attributed to favorable performance under dropout, when compared to rectified linear units. It however also depends on the fact that each maxout unit performs a pooling operation…
PPPD framework extracts physical characterizations from stochastic mechanical systems.
problem Complex system behavior requires more than probabilistic descriptions of QoI.
method Probabilistic Performance-Pattern Decomposition (PPPD) framework.
result Decomposes system behaviors into meaningful patterns in response space.
Paper proposes Monarch matrices for scalable probabilistic circuits.
problem Improving scalability of probabilistic circuits.
method Sparse Monarch matrices for sum blocks in PCs.
result Significantly reduces memory and computation costs, enabling unprecedented scaling.
New CAGP-GS framework improves Gaussian process uncertainty quantification.
problem Scaling issue in Gaussian processes for large datasets.
method Calibrated probabilistic linear solvers for reduced complexity.
result CAGP-GS framework provides more realistic uncertainty quantification.
Paper presents a method for probabilistic load forecasting using adaptive online learning.
problem Inability to assess intrinsic uncertainties and capture dynamic changes in consumption patterns.
method Adaptive online learning of hidden Markov models for recursive parameter updates and sequential prediction.
result Significant improvement in performance compared to existing techniques across various scenarios.
We describe a probabilistic (generative) view of affinity matrices along with inference algorithms for a subclass of problems associated with data clustering. This probabilistic view is helpful in understanding different models and algorithms that are based on affinity functions OF the data. IN particular, we show how(…
Probabilistic method combines space and time uncertainties in PDEs.
problem Separate treatment of space and time in PDE solvers obscures interactions and error quantification.
method Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference methods interacting with probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Joint quantification of space- and time-uncertainty possible without sacrificing ODE solver performance.
New scheme optimizes BMI through probabilistic and geometric shaping.
problem Optimizing bit-wise mutual information (BMI) for coded modulation.
method Joint optimization of BMI through probabilistic and geometric shaping.
result Joint optimization enables a continuum of constellation geometries and probability distributions.
A new model designs molecular latent vectors for drug discovery.
problem Designing effective molecular descriptors from molecular structures.
method Proposes a denoising diffusion probabilistic model (DDPM) for variational autoencoding molecular graphs.
result Demonstrates superior prediction performance and robustness compared to existing approaches.
ProFnet models HDFTS with neural networks, offering scalable probabilistic forecasts.
problem Modeling high-dimensional functional time series with nonlinear trends and high spatial dimensions.
method Integrates feedforward and deep neural networks with probabilistic modeling.
result Superior performance in forecasting Japan's mortality rates.
pRSL combines probabilistic rules to improve multi-label classification.
problem Modeling the structure between multi-label classes for better performance.
method Uses probabilistic propositional logic rules and belief propagation to combine predictions from multiple classifiers.
result pRSL achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark datasets.
Particle Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques rank among current state-of-the-art methods for probabilistic program inference. A drawback of these techniques is that they rely on importance resampling, which results in degenerate particle trajectories and a low effective sample size for variables sampled early in a prog…
Short-term load forecasting is a critical element of power systems energy management systems. In recent years, probabilistic load forecasting (PLF) has gained increased attention for its ability to provide uncertainty information that helps to improve the reliability and economics of system operation performances. This…
A new probabilistic approach improves deep metric learning by considering image uncertainties and class-specific variances.
problem Proxy-based deep metric learning struggles with image uncertainties and class-specific structures.
method Introduces non-isotropic probabilistic proxy-based deep metric learning using directional von Mises-Fisher distributions.
result Improves generalization performance and competitive on standard benchmarks.
Probabilistic inference procedures are usually coded painstakingly from scratch, for each target model and each inference algorithm. We reduce this effort by generating inference procedures from models automatically. We make this code generation modular by decomposing inference algorithms into reusable program-to-progr…
Probabilistic STNs improve image classification and robustness.
problem Training and robustness issues in STNs.
method Probabilistic extension of STNs that estimates stochastic transformations.
result Improved classification performance, robustness, and model calibration.
We extend probabilistic programming to handle conditioning on marginal distributions.
problem Conditioning probabilistic programs on marginal distributions of observable variables.
method We define and implement stochastic conditioning, allowing inference in probabilistic programs conditioned on marginal distributions.
result We demonstrate the effectiveness of stochastic conditioning in various real-life scenarios.
Adaptive probabilistic load forecasting improves performance in power systems.
problem Complexity of electricity load forecasting due to changing drivers and local generation.
method Adaptive probabilistic approach using Kalman filter and online gradient descent.
result Adaptive probabilistic forecasts improve performance in both point and probabilistic forecasting.
Paper studies ensemble probabilistic regression trees for smooth approximations.
problem Smooth approximations of regression functions.
method Ensemble versions of probabilistic regression trees.
result Ensemble probabilistic regression trees are consistent and perform well.
New framework for probabilistic linear solvers reduces manual effort.
problem Manual implementation of probabilistic iterative methods is laborious.
method Affine Tracing: Automatically constructs PIMs from standard implementations.
result Any realistic affine PIM is calibrated, motivating their adoption.
This paper combines and improves probabilistic forecasts of wind speeds using advanced statistical methods.
problem Improving accuracy and reliability of probabilistic forecasts in wind speed prediction.
method Adapting prediction with expert advice theory to probabilistic forecasts, combining raw or post-processed ensembles, and using CRPS and Jolliffe-Primo tests.
result Combining probabilistic forecasts can lead to more reliable and skillful predictions, as shown by the Jolliffe-Primo test.
We introduce and demonstrate the variational autoencoder (VAE) for probabilistic non-negative matrix factorisation (PAE-NMF). We design a network which can perform non-negative matrix factorisation (NMF) and add in aspects of a VAE to make the coefficients of the latent space probabilistic. By restricting the weights i…
A new method for efficient probabilistic meta-learning.
problem High-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates require large amounts of data.
method Amortised Inference in Bayesian Neural Networks (APOVI-BNN)
result The APOVI-BNN produces high-quality predictions with well-calibrated uncertainty estimates using significantly less data.
New probability path model improves flow matching forecasting performance.
problem Impact of probability path model selection on flow matching forecasting performance.
method Proposed a novel probability path model designed to improve forecasting performance.
result Our model achieves faster convergence during training and improved predictive performance compared to existing models.