Kernel Bayesian inference is a principled approach to nonparametric inference in probabilistic graphical models, where probabilistic relationships between variables are learned from data in a nonparametric manner. Various algorithms of kernel Bayesian inference have been developed by combining kernelized basic probabil…
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48 results for “probabilistic model-based”
Framework uses probabilistic programming for physics simulation in games.
problem Efficiently simulate physics in games using probabilistic programming.
method Combines model-free and model-based approaches to improve efficiency.
result Model outperforms model-free or model-based approaches alone.
A new Bayesian MBRL method improves performance in robotics tasks.
problem Enhancing model-based reinforcement learning with uncertainty.
method Introduces variational inference MPC and probabilistic action ensembles with trajectory sampling (PaETS).
result Consistently improves performance on challenging locomotion tasks.
Proposes H-UCRL for efficient model-based RL with sublinear regret.
problem Greedy policy exploration in model-based RL ignores epistemic uncertainty.
method Reparameterizes plausible models, hallucinates control, augments input space, solves with greedy planners.
result H-UCRL achieves provably sublinear regret for Gaussian Process models.
Proposes a method to control model complexity in neural network optimization.
problem Reduces the computational cost of neural architecture search.
method Probabilistic model-based dynamic optimization with a penalty term to control model complexity.
result The proposed method controls model complexity while maintaining performance.
This paper tackles distribution shift in model-based offline RL, proposing a shifts-aware reward method.
problem Distribution shift challenges model-based offline RL by distorting value estimation and policy optimization.
method The paper disentangles the problem into model bias and policy shift, proposing a shifts-aware reward through probabilistic inference.
result The proposed shifts-aware reward method effectively mitigates distribution shift and improves policy optimization.
Deep reinforcement learning controls drones without model knowledge.
problem Real-time robot control without engineered models.
method Learnt probabilistic model of drone dynamics, model-based reinforcement learning.
result Controller and value function optimized through generated latent trajectories.
Simple model-based reinforcement learning outperforms model-free methods in complex tasks.
problem Lagging performance of model-based reinforcement learning agents in non-trivial environments.
method Combining soft value estimates with stochastic value gradients.
result Simple model-based agents achieve state-of-the-art results in a high-dimensional humanoid control task.
This work combines recurrent models with diffusion for probabilistic time series forecasting.
problem Scalability and capturing high-dimensional distributions and cross-feature dependencies in time series forecasting.
method Combines recurrent neural networks' efficiency with diffusion models' probabilistic modeling, using stochastic interpolants and conditional generation.
result Offers scalable probabilistic time series forecasting methods.
Queuing model predicts truck parking occupancy.
problem Real-time probabilistic forecasting of truck parking occupancy.
method Non-homogeneous queuing model with time-varying service times, verified using empirical data.
result Lower bound for real-time prediction algorithms characterized.
Model-based reinforcement learning (RL) algorithms can attain excellent sample efficiency, but often lag behind the best model-free algorithms in terms of asymptotic performance. This is especially true with high-capacity parametric function approximators, such as deep networks. In this paper, we study how to bridge th…
We present a new model-based integrative method for clustering objects given both vectorial data, which describes the feature of each object, and network data, which indicates the similarity of connected objects. The proposed general model is able to cluster the two types of data simultaneously within one integrative p…
Study introduces TeMoP model for better stock market predictions.
problem Decreasing prediction errors and robustness across datasets in machine learning models.
method Probabilistic multiple lag order model based on trend encoding.
result TeMoP model outperforms machine learning models in accuracy and stability across different stock indexes.
We introduce a unified probabilistic framework for solving sequential decision making problems ranging from Bayesian optimisation to contextual bandits and reinforcement learning. This is accomplished by a probabilistic model-based approach that explains observed data while capturing predictive uncertainty during the d…
Paper proposes a new method for probabilistic electricity price forecasting.
problem Accurate estimation of forecast uncertainties for optimal decision making.
method Implicit generative ensemble post-processing using an ensemble of point forecasting models.
result Method outperforms well-established model combination benchmarks.
Only Bayes should learn a manifold (on the estimation of differential geometric structure from data)stat.ML
We investigate learning of the differential geometric structure of a data manifold embedded in a high-dimensional Euclidean space. We first analyze kernel-based algorithms and show that under the usual regularizations, non-probabilistic methods cannot recover the differential geometric structure, but instead find mostl…
Semantic inpainting is the task of inferring missing pixels in an image given surrounding pixels and high level image semantics. Most semantic inpainting algorithms are deterministic: given an image with missing regions, a single inpainted image is generated. However, there are often several plausible inpaintings for a…
Evolutionary clustering aims at capturing the temporal evolution of clusters. This issue is particularly important in the context of social media data that are naturally temporally driven. In this paper, we propose a new probabilistic model-based evolutionary clustering technique. The Temporal Multinomial Mixture (TMM)…
Previously, the exploding gradient problem has been explained to be central in deep learning and model-based reinforcement learning, because it causes numerical issues and instability in optimization. Our experiments in model-based reinforcement learning imply that the problem is not just a numerical issue, but it may …
VMBPO optimizes model and policy jointly using variational lower-bound.
problem Data efficiency in RL with biased simulated data.
method Formulate variational objective function, use EM, iteratively improve model and policy.
result VMBPO is more sample-efficient and robust than model-free algorithms.
Hybrid model combines continuous and tractable probabilistic models.
problem Intractable probabilistic inference in continuous latent-space models.
method Continuous mixtures of tractable probabilistic models with finite integration points.
result Hybrid models achieve state-of-the-art performance in density estimation.
We propose a novel sampling framework for inference in probabilistic models: an active learning approach that converges more quickly (in wall-clock time) than Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) benchmarks. The central challenge in probabilistic inference is numerical integration, to average over ensembles of models or unk…
Proposes DGCN with trajectory sampling for data-efficient policy search in MBRL.
problem Improving data efficiency in model-based reinforcement learning.
method Combines trajectory sampling and DGCN for uncertainty propagation in probabilistic world models.
result Improves sample-efficiency over other uncertainty propagation methods and probabilistic models.
clusterBMA combines clustering results from multiple models using Bayesian model averaging.
problem Uncertainty in model selection for clustering.
method Bayesian model averaging to combine results from multiple clustering algorithms.
result ClusterBMA offers probabilistic cluster allocations and quantifies model-based uncertainty.
New method optimizes MRI sampling patterns for faster scans.
problem Accelerate MRI scans without sacrificing image quality.
method Joint learning of adaptive sampling patterns and model-based recovery.
result Improved MR image quality compared to other methods.
PALM learns abstract models for efficient planning and task transfer.
problem Efficiently learning and transferring hierarchical models for planning.
method PALM uses a new formal structure (L-AMDP) to learn independent, modular models at multiple levels of abstraction.
result PALM integrates planning and execution, facilitating rapid learning of abstract models.
A new algebra for probabilistic programming improves tail behavior accuracy.
problem Inaccurate tail behavior in probabilistic models based on neural networks.
method Developed a three-parameter tail asymptotics algebra based on the generalized Gamma distribution.
result Inference algorithms using the heavy-tailed algebra achieve superior performance.
Probabilistic graphical models are a central tool in AI; however, they are generally not as expressive as deep neural models, and inference is notoriously hard and slow. In contrast, deep probabilistic models such as sum-product networks (SPNs) capture joint distributions in a tractable fashion, but still lack the expr…
Models for predicting aircraft motion are an important component of modern aeronautical systems. These models help aircraft plan collision avoidance maneuvers and help conduct offline performance and safety analyses. In this article, we develop a method for learning a probabilistic generative model of aircraft motion i…
We present a convex approach to probabilistic segmentation and modeling of time series data. Our approach builds upon recent advances in multivariate total variation regularization, and seeks to learn a separate set of parameters for the distribution over the observations at each time point, but with an additional pena…
End-to-end approach for weak supervision improves downstream model performance.
problem Data-labeling bottleneck in machine learning applications.
method Directly learning the downstream model by maximizing its agreement with probabilistic labels generated from weak supervision sources.
result Improved performance over prior work in terms of downstream model performance and robustness.
Proposes an accuracy-preserving calibration method for DNNs.
problem Calibration of deep neural networks (DNNs) to measure prediction reliability.
method Uses Concrete distribution on the probability simplex to calibrate DNNs without accuracy loss.
result The proposed method outperforms previous methods in accuracy-preserving calibration tasks.
SpecGrad: Diffusion Probabilistic Model based Neural Vocoder with Adaptive Noise Spectral Shapingeess.AS
SpecGrad improves neural vocoder sound quality by adapting diffusion noise to log-mel spectrogram.
problem Improving neural vocoder sound quality, especially in high-frequency bands.
method Adapting the diffusion noise distribution to the conditioning log-mel spectrogram through time-varying filtering.
result SpecGrad generates higher-fidelity speech waveform than conventional DDPM-based neural vocoders.
We propose a nonparametric Bayesian probabilistic latent variable model for multi-view anomaly detection, which is the task of finding instances that have inconsistent views. With the proposed model, all views of a non-anomalous instance are assumed to be generated from a single latent vector. On the other hand, an ano…
This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build these systems. It is aimed at people who have an undergraduate-level understandi…
Asynchronous method for hyperparameter and neural architecture search.
problem Efficiently searching for optimal hyperparameters and neural architectures.
method Model-based, asynchronous multi-fidelity method combining Hyperband and Gaussian process-based Bayesian optimization.
result Substantial speed-ups over current state-of-the-art methods on various benchmarks.
We propose a single neural probabilistic model based on variational autoencoder that can be conditioned on an arbitrary subset of observed features and then sample the remaining features in "one shot". The features may be both real-valued and categorical. Training of the model is performed by stochastic variational Bay…
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
Recent advances in analysis of subband amplitude envelopes of natural sounds have resulted in convincing synthesis, showing subband amplitudes to be a crucial component of perception. Probabilistic latent variable analysis is particularly revealing, but existing approaches don't incorporate prior knowledge about the ph…
Deep models predict intraday electricity prices accurately.
problem Accurately forecasting intraday electricity prices.
method Two deep time series probabilistic models using ESNs with stochastic disturbances and copulas.
result Deep distributional models provide accurate short-term probabilistic price forecasts.
In this paper, we propose a model-based clustering method (TVClust) that robustly incorporates noisy side information as soft-constraints and aims to seek a consensus between side information and the observed data. Our method is based on a nonparametric Bayesian hierarchical model that combines the probabilistic model …
Higher-Order Generalization Bounds: Learning Deep Probabilistic Programs via PAC-Bayes Objectivescs.LG
Unified framework for learning flexible probabilistic programs using DPP and PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Learning and generalizing from complex probabilistic models.
method Unified DPP representation and PAC-Bayes bounds for stochastic programs.
result Improved performance and generalization prediction using flexible DPP model representations and learned complexity measures.
Proposes a novel classifier for probabilistic record linkage.
problem Probabilistic record linkage across databases.
method Graphical model based on mixture of Poisson distributions with latent variables, using gamma priors and supervised labels.
result Classifier works effectively with sparse and streaming data.
Stochastic gradient methods enable learning probabilistic models from large amounts of data. While large step-sizes (learning rates) have shown to be best for least-squares (e.g., Gaussian noise) once combined with parameter averaging, these are not leading to convergent algorithms in general. In this paper, we conside…
A new probabilistic framework for optimal transport using collective graphical models.
problem Measuring similarity between probability distributions and histograms.
method Probabilistic Optimal Transport based on Collective Graphical Models.
result OT with entropic regularization is equivalent to maximizing a posterior probability of a CGM.
SAMBA improves safe reinforcement learning with active exploration metrics.
problem Safe reinforcement learning in dynamic systems.
method Combines probabilistic modelling, information theory, and statistics. Uses novel metrics for out-of-sample Gaussian process evaluation.
result Orders of magnitude reduction in samples and violations compared to state-of-the-art methods.
Enhancing Offline Model-Based RL via Active Model Selection: A Bayesian Optimization Perspectivecs.LG
BOMS enhances offline MBRL by improving model selection with Bayesian optimization.
problem Inaccurate model selection in offline MBRL due to distribution shift.
method Proposes BOMS, an active model selection framework using Bayesian optimization.
result Improves model selection with only a small amount of online interaction.
The mixture models have become widely used in clustering, given its probabilistic framework in which its based, however, for modern databases that are characterized by their large size, these models behave disappointingly in setting out the model, making essential the selection of relevant variables for this type of cl…