Probabilistic deep learning uses neural networks and models to handle uncertainty.
problem Handling uncertainty in deep learning models.
method Two approaches: probabilistic neural networks and deep probabilistic models.
result TensorFlow Probability library supports both approaches.
Probabilistic ML improves healthcare data analysis.
problem Insufficient understanding and incomplete data in healthcare.
method Examination of probabilistic machine learning models for healthcare challenges.
result Probabilistic models enhance healthcare data analysis and model building.
Probabilistic modeling enables combining domain knowledge with learning from data, thereby supporting learning from fewer training instances than purely data-driven methods. However, learning probabilistic models is difficult and has not achieved the level of performance of methods such as deep neural networks on many …
D2PCCA integrates deep learning and probabilistic modeling for nonlinear dynamical systems.
problem Analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems with probabilistic understanding.
method Combines deep learning and probabilistic modeling, using KL annealing and normalizing flows.
result Captures latent dynamics in sequential datasets with improved convergence and flexibility.
Probabilistic learning for binary classification with categorical variables.
problem Binary classification with categorical covariates.
method Probabilistic analysis and two algorithms for learning boolean functions.
result Effective learning of boolean functions from binary data.
Probabilistic programming is a powerful abstraction for statistical machine learning. Applying static analysis methods to probabilistic programs could serve to optimize the learning process, automatically verify properties of models, and improve the programming interface for users. This field of static analysis for pro…
Study efficient interactive learning for structured outputs with reliable computation.
problem Interactive learning with noisy labels and structured output spaces.
method Identify and utilize CRISPs (probabilistic models) that guarantee reliable and efficient computation of probabilistic quantities.
result CRISPs enable robust and efficient active and skeptical learning in large structured output spaces.
A deep learning method for probabilistic weather forecasting.
problem Probabilistic forecasting of weather.
method Two chained machine-learning steps: dimension reduction and density estimation using normalizing flows.
result The method produces accurate conditional forecast distributions for weather.
pRSL combines probabilistic rules to improve multi-label classification.
problem Modeling the structure between multi-label classes for better performance.
method Uses probabilistic propositional logic rules and belief propagation to combine predictions from multiple classifiers.
result pRSL achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark datasets.
ProbRes calibrates probabilistic forecasts by learning volatility dynamics.
problem Quantifying risk and uncertainty in time series forecasting.
method ProbRes learns conditional mean and volatility separately, generating well-calibrated prediction intervals.
result ProbRes accurately captures predictive distributions and produces well-calibrated prediction intervals.
Probabilistic methods improve SHM by learning from noisy, incomplete data.
problem Noisy and incomplete SHM data, lack of prior labels.
method Probabilistic algorithms for semi-supervised, active, and multi-task learning.
result Probabilistic methods enhance SHM by incorporating new data.
Proposes a deep probabilistic multi-view model for multi-view learning.
problem Learning from multiple related views with shared latent structure.
method Probabilistic Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) in latent space, deep generative networks, variational inference.
result Efficient variational inference approximates posterior distributions of latent multi-view layer.
Discusses new probabilistic morphisms and geometric methods in machine and statistical learning.
problem Addressing challenges in statistical, machine, and manifold learning.
method Introduces category of probabilistic morphisms and geometric methods.
result New insights and applications in various learning fields.
Unified framework for differentiable graph partitioning with probabilistic cuts.
problem Lack of general guarantees and principled gradients in prior probabilistic relaxations of graph cuts.
method Unified probabilistic framework covering a wide class of cuts, including Normalized Cut, with tight analytic upper bounds.
result Rigorous, numerically stable foundation for scalable, differentiable graph partitioning.
Stein's method improves probabilistic inference and learning.
problem Improving probabilistic inference and learning methods.
method Constructing Stein discrepancies from Stein operators and Stein sets, discussing their properties.
result Connection between Stein operators and Stein variational gradient descent.
KalMamba improves RL efficiency with probabilistic SSMs.
problem Efficiency in learning and inference for probabilistic SSMs in RL.
method Combines Mamba's scalability with Kalman filtering for efficient probabilistic SSMs.
result KalMamba outperforms state-of-the-art SSMs in RL, especially on longer sequences.
The paper extends calibration to sets of probabilistic classifiers, finding many ensembles are poorly calibrated.
problem Evaluating the validity of epistemic uncertainty in sets of probabilistic classifiers.
method Proposed a novel nonparametric calibration test for sets of probabilistic classifiers.
result Ensembles of deep neural networks are often not well calibrated.
This paper introduces a probabilistic framework for k-shot image classification. The goal is to generalise from an initial large-scale classification task to a separate task comprising new classes and small numbers of examples. The new approach not only leverages the feature-based representation learned by a neural net…
Probabilistic models can handle causal inference without special tools.
problem Confusion over necessary tools for causal inference.
method Demonstrated through concrete examples that causal questions can be answered using standard probabilistic models.
result Causal questions can be addressed using standard probabilistic modelling and inference.
Researchers propose better probabilistic models for deep learning.
problem Using cross-entropy loss for non-categorical data.
method Introducing continuous-categorical distribution and proposing probabilistic alternatives.
result Potential for outperformance in deep learning models with proper probabilistic treatment.
Bayesian scores improve structure learning in probabilistic circuits.
problem Improper structure learning in probabilistic circuits based on heuristics.
method Developed Bayesian structure scores for deterministic PCs, using them in a greedy cutset algorithm.
result Effective protection against overfitting and fast, almost hyper-parameter-free structure learner.
A new probabilistic mixup framework improves deep learning generalization.
problem Improving deep learning generalization performance.
method Introduces a novel probabilistic mixup framework for conditional density estimation.
result Empirical results show benefits over existing mixup variants.
The choice of constellations largely affects the performance of communication systems. When designing constellations, both the locations and probability of occurrence of the points can be optimized. These approaches are referred to as geometric and probabilistic shaping, respectively. Usually, the geometry of the const…
Paper quantifies uncertainty in probabilistic models using Gaussian Processes.
problem Assessing reliability of probabilistic machine learning predictions.
method Systematic framework for estimating epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, using Gaussian Processes and Monte Carlo sampling.
result Effective approach for quantifying prediction confidence in probabilistic models.
New method classifies manifold-valued data using Riemannian geometry.
problem Classifying data on curved Riemannian manifolds.
method Probabilistic Learning Vector Quantization on Symmetric Positive Definite Matrices.
result The method outperforms traditional Euclidean methods on manifold-valued data.
This paper introduces the probabilistic module interface, which allows encapsulation of complex probabilistic models with latent variables alongside custom stochastic approximate inference machinery, and provides a platform-agnostic abstraction barrier separating the model internals from the host probabilistic inferenc…
Aiming at a comprehensive and concise tutorial survey, recap of variational inference and reinforcement learning with Probabilistic Graphical Models are given with detailed derivations. Reviews and comparisons on recent advances in deep reinforcement learning are made from various aspects. We offer detailed derivations…
We develop a technique for generalising from data in which models are samplers represented as program text. We establish encouraging empirical results that suggest that Markov chain Monte Carlo probabilistic programming inference techniques coupled with higher-order probabilistic programming languages are now sufficien…
In this tutorial, I will discuss the details about how Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) is formalized and how different learning algorithms are proposed to learn the model.
A new probabilistic approach improves deep metric learning by considering image uncertainties and class-specific variances.
problem Proxy-based deep metric learning struggles with image uncertainties and class-specific structures.
method Introduces non-isotropic probabilistic proxy-based deep metric learning using directional von Mises-Fisher distributions.
result Improves generalization performance and competitive on standard benchmarks.
Predictive modelling and supervised learning are central to modern data science. With predictions from an ever-expanding number of supervised black-box strategies - e.g., kernel methods, random forests, deep learning aka neural networks - being employed as a basis for decision making processes, it is crucial to underst…
A probabilistic framework for online test-time adaptation
problem Adapting models to new data under distributional shift
method State-space modelling architecture
result Characterizing parameter learning, time evolution, prior tuning, and prediction
PGBM creates probabilistic predictions efficiently.
problem Creating probabilistic predictions for large-scale data.
method Approximates leaf weights as random variables, learns moments via stochastic tree ensemble update equations.
result PGBM offers significant speedup and accuracy improvements over existing methods.
Transfer learning improves sparse, interpretable probabilistic classification.
problem Sparse and interpretable models in transfer learning.
method Two transfer learning extensions integrated into sparse and interpretable probabilistic classification vector machine.
result Transfer learning extensions improve sparsity and performance.
CCs learn high-dimensional distributions from heterogeneous data.
problem Learning high-dimensional distributions from heterogeneous data.
method Introducing characteristic circuits (CCs) that learn from data and use spectral domain.
result CCs outperform state-of-the-art density estimators on common benchmark data sets.
Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit …
Probabilistic Autoencoder learns latent space weights' distribution.
problem Nonlinear model reconstruction error and sample quality.
method Normalizing flow for latent space weights' probability distribution.
result PAE achieves small reconstruction errors, high sample quality, and good performance.
ProSMIN improves representation quality through probabilistic self-supervised learning.
problem Improving representation quality in self-supervised learning.
method ProSMIN uses two neural networks, online and target, to learn diverse representations through knowledge distillation and a modified scoring rule loss function.
result ProSMIN achieves superior accuracy and calibration on various downstream tasks.
Develops probabilistic safety regions for scalable classifiers.
problem Minimizing misclassification errors in supervised classification.
method Introduces probabilistic safety regions and scalable classifiers.
result Probabilistic certifications for classifier performance.
A new approach to continual learning using fully probabilistic models.
problem Handling data distribution changes in machine learning models.
method Gaussian Mixture Replay (GMR) based on fully probabilistic models.
result GMR achieves state-of-the-art performance on class-incremental learning problems.
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accele…
Improved deep probabilistic time series forecasting by learning error autocorrelation.
problem Simplification of time-independent error process and lack of serial correlation in existing models.
method Proposes a training method that incorporates error autocorrelation to enhance probabilistic forecasting accuracy.
result Improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification across multiple datasets.
It has recently been shown that many of the existing quasi-Newton algorithms can be formulated as learning algorithms, capable of learning local models of the cost functions. Importantly, this understanding allows us to safely start assembling probabilistic Newton-type algorithms, applicable in situations where we only…
This book is a graduate-level introduction to probabilistic programming. It not only provides a thorough background for anyone wishing to use a probabilistic programming system, but also introduces the techniques needed to design and build these systems. It is aimed at people who have an undergraduate-level understandi…
Probabilistic active meta-learning improves data efficiency in robotics.
problem Data-efficient learning in robotics where data collection is expensive.
method Conceptualizing meta-learning with a probabilistic latent variable model for sequential task selection.
result Improves data efficiency compared to baselines on simulated robotic experiments.
Pymc-learn is a Python package providing a variety of state-of-the-art probabilistic models for supervised and unsupervised machine learning. It is inspired by scikit-learn and focuses on bringing probabilistic machine learning to non-specialists. It uses a general-purpose high-level language that…
Adversarial attacks on probabilistic state-space models affect latent state and policy decisions.
problem Robust reinforcement learning under adversarial observability.
method Analyzing adversarial attacks on linear probabilistic state-space models.
result Demonstrating the influence of adversarial observations on latent state and policy decisions.
In this paper we formulate a probabilistic model for class-specific discriminant subspace learning. The proposed model can naturally incorporate the multi-modal structure of the negative class, which is neglected by existing class-specific methods. Moreover, it can be directly used to define a class-specific probabilis…