Paper develops a dual formulation for PCA in Hilbert spaces.
problem Characterizing probabilistic PCA in Hilbert spaces.
method Dual formulation for probabilistic PCA in Hilbert spaces.
result Generative framework for kernel methods developed.
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48 results for “probabilistic formulation”
In this work, we introduce a novel probabilistic representation of deep learning, which provides an explicit explanation for the Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) in three aspects: (i) neurons define the energy of a Gibbs distribution; (ii) the hidden layers of DNNs formulate Gibbs distributions; and (iii) the whole architec…
Parallel-in-time solver reduces ODE simulation time from linear to logarithmic.
problem Efficiently solving ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with reduced computational cost.
method Formulated a parallel-in-time probabilistic numerical ODE solver using time-parallel formulation of iterated extended Kalman smoothers.
result Reduces span cost from linear to logarithmic in the number of time steps.
Probabilistic PARAFAC2stat.ML
The PARAFAC2 is a multimodal factor analysis model suitable for analyzing multi-way data when one of the modes has incomparable observation units, for example because of differences in signal sampling or batch sizes. A fully probabilistic treatment of the PARAFAC2 is desirable in order to improve robustness to noise an…
The paper improves ODE solvers by integrating diverse information types.
problem Improving accuracy and physical meaningfulness of ODE solutions.
method Leveraging probabilistic solvers to include second-order information and physical conservation laws.
result Solutions become more accurate and physically meaningful with additional information.
Understanding the dual formulation for the hedging of path-dependent options with price impactmath.PR
New method for hedging path-dependent options with price impact using probabilistic arguments.
problem Hedging of path-dependent options with price impact.
method Dual formulation using probabilistic arguments, proving existence of perfect hedging portfolios.
result Existence of a perfect hedging portfolio for path-dependent options with price impact.
In science and especially in economics, agent-based modeling has become a widely used modeling approach. These models are often formulated as a large system of difference equations. In this study, we discuss two aspects, numerical modeling and the probabilistic description for two agent-based computational economic mar…
In this paper we formulate a probabilistic model for class-specific discriminant subspace learning. The proposed model can naturally incorporate the multi-modal structure of the negative class, which is neglected by existing class-specific methods. Moreover, it can be directly used to define a class-specific probabilis…
In this work, we explore how probabilistic programs can be used to represent policies in sequential decision problems. In this formulation, a probabilistic program is a black-box stochastic simulator for both the problem domain and the agent. We relate classic policy gradient techniques to recently introduced black-box…
This paper improves QoS metric prediction in DTNs using diffusion models.
problem Improving QoS metric prediction in Delay-Tolerant Networks (DTNs) to enhance network performance.
method Formulates QoS metric prediction as a probabilistic forecasting problem on multivariate time series, incorporating latent temporal dynamics.
result The proposed approach outperforms traditional methods in QoS metric prediction for DTNs.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
Predictive modelling and supervised learning are central to modern data science. With predictions from an ever-expanding number of supervised black-box strategies - e.g., kernel methods, random forests, deep learning aka neural networks - being employed as a basis for decision making processes, it is crucial to underst…
Regression problems assume every instance is annotated (labeled) with a real value, a form of annotation we call \emph{strong guidance}. In order for these annotations to be accurate, they must be the result of a precise experiment or measurement. However, in some cases additional \emph{weak guidance} might be given by…
Paper introduces md-vtrees for efficient probabilistic and causal inference.
problem Efficient inference in complex probabilistic models.
method Introduces md-vtrees to generalize tractability conditions for advanced inference queries.
result Derives first polytime algorithms for causal inference queries.
Paper proposes a probabilistic alignment method for domain adaptation.
problem Latent distribution mismatch and miscalibrated uncertainty in adapting large-scale models.
method Bayesian latent transport framework with PAC-Bayesian regularization.
result Reduction in latent manifold discrepancy and improved uncertainty calibration.
Paper integrates real data into probabilistic models using Fourier transform.
problem Learning from constrained data sets in high dimensions.
method Functional approach based on weak formulation of Fourier transform of probability measures.
result Estimation of posterior probability measures for QoI and QoI with control parameter.
Uncertainty Quantification in Probabilistic Machine Learning Models: Theory, Methods, and Insightsstat.ML
Paper quantifies uncertainty in probabilistic models using Gaussian Processes.
problem Assessing reliability of probabilistic machine learning predictions.
method Systematic framework for estimating epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty, using Gaussian Processes and Monte Carlo sampling.
result Effective approach for quantifying prediction confidence in probabilistic models.
Extends partitioned local depth concept with probabilistic considerations.
problem Uncertain, variable, and conflicting information in data.
method Partitioned local depth with probabilistic concepts of local relevance and support division.
result Extends original ideas to handle uncertain data.
Study on stability of GCNNs under graph perturbations.
problem Limited theoretical understanding of GCNN stability.
method Proposes a probabilistic framework to analyze GCNN stability under various graph perturbations.
result Demonstrates the importance of data distribution in stability analysis.
We present a derivation and theoretical investigation of the Adams-Bashforth and Adams-Moulton family of linear multistep methods for solving ordinary differential equations, starting from a Gaussian process (GP) framework. In the limit, this formulation coincides with the classical deterministic methods, which have be…
It has recently been shown that many of the existing quasi-Newton algorithms can be formulated as learning algorithms, capable of learning local models of the cost functions. Importantly, this understanding allows us to safely start assembling probabilistic Newton-type algorithms, applicable in situations where we only…
Probabilistic graphical models (PGMs) have become a popular tool for computational analysis of biological data in a variety of domains. But, what exactly are they and how do they work? How can we use PGMs to discover patterns that are biologically relevant? And to what extent can PGMs help us formulate new hypotheses t…
Many data-driven approaches exist to extract neural representations of functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data, but most of them lack a proper probabilistic formulation. We propose a group level scalable probabilistic sparse factor analysis (psFA) allowing spatially sparse maps, component pruning using automa…
Formulates Markov property for risk-sensitive dynamic optimisation.
problem Risk-sensitive dynamic optimisation problems in discrete time.
method Formulates probabilistic Markov property under dynamic risk framework.
result Property holds for standard risk measures and has multiple equivalent versions.
New method for efficient probabilistic deep state-space models.
problem Efficient inference for probabilistic deep state-space models.
method Deterministic inference algorithm for ProDSSM with neural network weights.
result Superior balance between predictive performance and computational budget.
We formulate probabilistic numerical approximations to solutions of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) as problems in Gaussian process (GP) regression with non-linear measurement functions. This is achieved by defining the measurement sequence to consist of the observations of the difference between the derivative …
Collaborative filtering is an important technique for recommendation. Whereas it has been repeatedly shown to be effective in previous work, its performance remains unsatisfactory in many real-world applications, especially those where the items or users are highly diverse. In this paper, we explore an ensemble-based f…
New method uses backward SDEs for deep learning uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty quantification in deep learning models.
method Probabilistic machine learning with stochastic neural networks and stochastic optimal control.
result Effectiveness validated through numerical experiments.
New tools for uncertainty in dynamical systems without distribution assumptions.
problem Uncertainty representation in dynamical systems without distributional assumptions.
method Kernel mean embedding and kernel probabilistic programming.
result Distribution-free representation, comparison, and propagation of uncertainties.
Theoretical Connection between Locally Linear Embedding, Factor Analysis, and Probabilistic PCAstat.ML
This work connects LLE, factor analysis, and probabilistic PCA through a stochastic perspective.
problem Exploring the theoretical connection between LLE, factor analysis, and probabilistic PCA.
method Solving the stochastic linear reconstruction of LLE using expectation maximization.
result LLE, factor analysis, and probabilistic PCA are shown to be connected through a stochastic perspective.
In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We construct a prob…
In deterministic optimization, line searches are a standard tool ensuring stability and efficiency. Where only stochastic gradients are available, no direct equivalent has so far been formulated, because uncertain gradients do not allow for a strict sequence of decisions collapsing the search space. We construct a prob…
NumPyro accelerates probabilistic programming with JAX transformations.
problem Efficiently handling probabilistic models with hardware acceleration.
method Composable effects and program transformations in JAX.
result Iterative NUTS formulation JIT compiled for speed.
In this paper, we present a local information theoretic approach to explicitly learn probabilistic clustering of a discrete random variable. Our formulation yields a convex maximization problem for which it is NP-hard to find the global optimum. In order to algorithmically solve this optimization problem, we propose tw…
There is a widespread need for techniques that can discover structure from time series data. Recently introduced techniques such as Automatic Bayesian Covariance Discovery (ABCD) provide a way to find structure within a single time series by searching through a space of covariance kernels that is generated using a simp…
In this paper we formulate in general terms an approach to prove strong consistency of the Empirical Risk Minimisation inductive principle applied to the prototype or distance based clustering. This approach was motivated by the Divisive Information-Theoretic Feature Clustering model in probabilistic space with Kullbac…
DPM-Solver speeds up DPM sampling to 10-20 function evaluations.
problem Slow sampling from Diffusion Probabilistic Models (DPMs).
method Exact formulation of diffusion ODE solutions, using change-of-variable and exponentially weighted integral.
result Generates high-quality samples in 10-20 function evaluations.
Unified approach for sequence design combining likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
problem Designing biological sequences efficiently and accurately.
method Unified probabilistic framework integrating likelihood-free inference and black-box optimization.
result Previous optimization methods can be adapted and new algorithms proposed within this framework.
Proposes VSGD optimizer combining probabilistic and gradient-based methods.
problem Uncertainty modeling in deep neural networks.
method Combines probabilistic and gradient-based approaches using SVI.
result VSGD outperforms Adam and SGD on image classification tasks.
Proposes using probabilistic models for privacy-preserving synthetic data.
problem Designing high-quality synthetic data for privacy preservation.
method Formulate the problem through probabilistic modelling, choosing a model for the data.
result Statistical discoveries can be reliably reproduced from synthetic data.
Models of complex systems are often formalized as sequential software simulators: computationally intensive programs that iteratively build up probable system configurations given parameters and initial conditions. These simulators enable modelers to capture effects that are difficult to characterize analytically or su…
Probabilistic grammars improve equation discovery from data.
problem Discovering scientific laws from data using equations.
method Proposed probabilistic context-free grammars to encode soft constraints and a Monte-Carlo algorithm.
result Probabilistic grammars lead to more efficient equation discovery.
Random G-expectationsmath.PR
We construct a time-consistent sublinear expectation in the setting of volatility uncertainty. This mapping extends Peng's G-expectation by allowing the range of the volatility uncertainty to be stochastic. Our construction is purely probabilistic and based on an optimal control formulation with path-dependent control …
Simplified explanation of DDPMs for machine learning.
problem Complexity in explaining DDPMs and missing rationale.
method Six simple steps to explain DDPMs.
result Clear rationale for each step of DDPM formulation.
New method for efficient probabilistic inference using masked language modeling.
problem Efficient posterior inference in probabilistic programs with many hyper-parameters.
method Formulate inference as masked language modeling, train a neural network to unmask random values.
result Foundation posterior for zero-shot inference and fine-tuning across a range of programs.
From Sets to Multisets: Provable Variational Inference for Probabilistic Integer Submodular Modelscs.LG
New method for probabilistic modeling of integer submodular functions.
problem Lack of probabilistic modeling for integer submodular functions.
method Proposed Generalized Multilinear Extension and block-coordinate ascent algorithm.
result Demonstrated effectiveness and viability on real-world datasets.
Graph-EFM models weather uncertainty with graph-based ensembles.
problem Accurately capturing forecast uncertainty in chaotic weather.
method Flexible latent-variable formulation with hierarchical graph construction.
result Graph-EFM ensembles achieve equivalent or lower errors than deterministic models.
New method learns PDE solutions from low-fidelity data.
problem Challenges in learning PDE surrogates with scarce data.
method Flow matching in infinite-dimensional space with conditional neural operators.
result Accurately learns PDE solutions across different resolutions and fidelities.