A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
MPF method improves parameter estimation in probabilistic models.
Hearing Aid (HA) algorithms need to be tuned ("fitted") to match the impairment of each specific patient. The lack of a fundamental HA fitting theory is a strong contributing factor to an unsatisfying sound experience for about 20% of hearing aid patients. This paper proposes a probabilistic modeling approach to the de…
Proposes CCE to assess point-wise reliability of neural network predictions.
We investigate whether the bid/ask queue imbalance in a limit order book (LOB) provides significant predictive power for the direction of the next mid-price movement. We consider this question both in the context of a simple binary classifier, which seeks to predict the direction of the next mid-price movement, and a p…
Probabilistic modeling is a powerful approach for analyzing empirical information. We describe Edward, a library for probabilistic modeling. Edward's design reflects an iterative process pioneered by George Box: build a model of a phenomenon, make inferences about the model given data, and criticize the model's fit to …
Probabilistic modeling is iterative. A scientist posits a simple model, fits it to her data, refines it according to her analysis, and repeats. However, fitting complex models to large data is a bottleneck in this process. Deriving algorithms for new models can be both mathematically and computationally challenging, wh…
PICLE uses probabilistic models to efficiently evaluate and compose modules for continual learning.
New GMM models fit high-dimensional data with fewer parameters.
We derive a new discrepancy statistic for measuring differences between two probability distributions based on combining Stein's identity with the reproducing kernel Hilbert space theory. We apply our result to test how well a probabilistic model fits a set of observations, and derive a new class of powerful goodness-o…
New test assesses probabilistic model calibration without expensive approximations.
We consider the probabilistic analogue to neural network matrix factorization (Dziugaite & Roy, 2015), which we construct with Bayesian neural networks and fit with variational inference. We find that a linear model fit with variational inference can attain equivalent predictive performance to the regular neural networ…
Recent advances in statistical inference have significantly expanded the toolbox of probabilistic modeling. Historically, probabilistic modeling has been constrained to (i) very restricted model classes where exact or approximate probabilistic inference were feasible, and (ii) small or medium-sized data sets which fit …
Bayesian scores improve structure learning in probabilistic circuits.
d3p package enables efficient Bayesian inference with differential privacy.
We propose Edward, a Turing-complete probabilistic programming language. Edward defines two compositional representations---random variables and inference. By treating inference as a first class citizen, on a par with modeling, we show that probabilistic programming can be as flexible and computationally efficient as t…
The PARAFAC2 is a multimodal factor analysis model suitable for analyzing multi-way data when one of the modes has incomparable observation units, for example because of differences in signal sampling or batch sizes. A fully probabilistic treatment of the PARAFAC2 is desirable in order to improve robustness to noise an…
CNNs improve wind speed forecasts in the Netherlands.
New robustness test for kernel goodness-of-fit tests.
In Bayesian classification, it is important to establish a probabilistic model for each class for likelihood estimation. Most of the previous methods modeled the probability distribution in the whole sample space. However, real-world problems are usually too complex to model in the whole sample space; some fundamental …
Runge-Kutta methods are the classic family of solvers for ordinary differential equations (ODEs), and the basis for the state of the art. Like most numerical methods, they return point estimates. We construct a family of probabilistic numerical methods that instead return a Gauss-Markov process defining a probability d…
New ABC method improves Bézier simplex fitting for noisy data.
RegFlow models future states with flexible probability distributions.
A new method improves fitting neural data with spiking network models.
Traditional Linear Genetic Programming (LGP) algorithms are based only on the selection mechanism to guide the search. Genetic operators combine or mutate random portions of the individuals, without knowing if the result will lead to a fitter individual. Probabilistic Model Building Genetic Programming (PMB-GP) methods…
Models for predicting aircraft motion are an important component of modern aeronautical systems. These models help aircraft plan collision avoidance maneuvers and help conduct offline performance and safety analyses. In this article, we develop a method for learning a probabilistic generative model of aircraft motion i…
The statistical description and modeling of volatility plays a prominent role in econometrics, risk management and finance. GARCH and stochastic volatility models have been extensively studied and are routinely fitted to market data, albeit providing a phenomenological description only. In contrast, the field of econop…
PIE-PINN estimates elastic properties from noisy, low-res displacement data.
Variational inference approximates the posterior distribution of a probabilistic model with a parameterized density by maximizing a lower bound for the model evidence. Modern solutions fit a flexible approximation with stochastic gradient descent, using Monte Carlo approximation for the gradients. This enables variatio…
This paper proposes a probabilistic imputation method with uncertainty quantification.
Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis is a novel statistical technique for the analysis of two-mode and co-occurrence data, which has applications in information retrieval and filtering, natural language processing, machine learning from text, and in related areas. Compared to standard Latent Semantic Analysis which s…
The field of statistical relational learning aims at unifying logic and probability to reason and learn from data. Perhaps the most successful paradigm in the field is probabilistic logic programming: the enabling of stochastic primitives in logic programming, which is now increasingly seen to provide a declarative bac…
To make decisions based on a model fit with auto-encoding variational Bayes (AEVB), practitioners often let the variational distribution serve as a surrogate for the posterior distribution. This approach yields biased estimates of the expected risk, and therefore leads to poor decisions for two reasons. First, the mode…
PVI combines federated learning and variational inference for probabilistic model training.
Many online companies sell advertisement space in second-price auctions with reserve. In this paper, we develop a probabilistic method to learn a profitable strategy to set the reserve price. We use historical auction data with features to fit a predictor of the best reserve price. This problem is delicate - the struct…
Latent block models are used for probabilistic biclustering, which is shown to be an effective method for analyzing various relational data sets. However, there has been no statistical test method for determining the row and column cluster numbers of latent block models. Recent studies have constructed statistical-test…
New method balances multivariate model fitting for mixed likelihoods.
Probabilistic method identifies Purkinje network from ECG data.
The local volatility model is a widely used for pricing and hedging financial derivatives. While its main appeal is its capability of reproducing any given surface of observed option prices---it provides a perfect fit---the essential component is a latent function which can be uniquely determined only in the limit of i…
Bayesian Empirical Bayes extends EB to complex structures using probabilistic symmetry.
Generating interpretable visualizations from complex data is a common problem in many applications. Two key ingredients for tackling this issue are clustering and representation learning. However, current methods do not yet successfully combine the strengths of these two approaches. Existing representation learning mod…
We show that log-periodic power-law (LPPL) functions are intrinsically very hard to fit to time series. This comes from their sloppiness, the squared residuals depending very much on some combinations of parameters and very little on other ones. The time of singularity that is supposed to give an estimate of the day of…
Proposes PSCs for UQ in deep nets without retraining.
Improves model accuracy for neural nets in stochastic dynamics with partial prior knowledge.
We present a novel subset scan method to detect if a probabilistic binary classifier has statistically significant bias -- over or under predicting the risk -- for some subgroup, and identify the characteristics of this subgroup. This form of model checking and goodness-of-fit test provides a way to interpretably detec…
A new method for averaging model predictions using minimum divergence.
This paper explores the suitability of using automatically discovered topics from MOOC discussion forums for modelling students' academic abilities. The Rasch model from psychometrics is a popular generative probabilistic model that relates latent student skill, latent item difficulty, and observed student-item respons…
A new method for detecting anomalies in large, high-dimensional data streams using probabilistic forest models.
A new Thompson Sampling framework handles uncertainty by imputing missing data.