The paper analyzes the probabilistic structure of DDPMs and bounds their sampling error.
problem Understanding and controlling errors in discrete-time DDPMs.
method Structural analysis of score functions, Schrödinger's problem, and FBSDEs.
result Explicit upper bound for total variation distance between sampling and target distributions.
A new error bound improves safety in Bayesian optimization.
problem Ensuring safety in Bayesian optimization with probabilistic models.
method Introducing a novel error bound using Wiener kernel regression for Gaussian processes and noise.
result The new error bound provides larger safety regions than previous methods.
Improved bounds for proximal gradient algorithms with computational errors.
problem Analyzing convergence of proximal gradient algorithms with inaccuracies.
method Deriving new tighter deterministic and probabilistic bounds for convex composite problems.
result Probabilistic bounds are more robust and accurate for algorithm verification and performance guarantees.
The success of deep learning has led to a rising interest in the generalization property of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method, and stability is one popular approach to study it. Existing works based on stability have studied nonconvex loss functions, but only considered the generalization error of the SGD in…
Paper analyzes GCNN sensitivity to probabilistic graph perturbations.
problem Investigating how GCNNs handle probabilistic graph errors.
method Establishes error bounds and linear relationships between GSO perturbations and GCNN outputs.
result GCNNs maintain stability under graph edge perturbations if GSO errors are bounded.
Sharp 2-Wasserstein bounds for DDPMs derived from Föllmer process.
problem Sampling error bounds for DDPMs in 2-Wasserstein distance.
method Lipschitz-type conditions on score function, Föllmer process, and log-concave target distributions.
result Sharp upper bounds for DDPMs in 2-Wasserstein distance, optimal in dimension and steps.
Deep learning improves probabilistic PPDE solution accuracy.
problem Approximating solutions to path-dependent PDEs with limited basis selection.
method Deep learning for conditional expectation estimation with error bounds.
result Deep learning yields more accurate PPDE solutions, especially in high dimensions.
Optimizes pruning masks for neural networks using probabilistic fine-tuning and PAC-Bayes bounds.
problem Improving neural network performance through adaptive pruning of weights.
method Optimizes stochastic pruning masks by minimizing expected loss, considering data-adaptive regularization and feature alignment.
result Probabilistic fine-tuning leads to improved test error over baseline methods in neural networks.
A framework assesses the trustworthiness of probabilistic classifiers using local calibration error.
problem Assessing the trustworthiness of probabilistic classifiers beyond traditional metrics.
method I-trustworthy framework linking local calibration to trustworthiness; Kernel Local Calibration Error (KLCE) method for hypothesis testing.
result The effectiveness of the proposed test statistic demonstrated through simulated and real-world datasets.
The paper provides a uniform convergence bound for smooth calibration error and its relationship with functional gradient.
problem Limited theoretical understanding of learning algorithms achieving high accuracy and good calibration.
method Focuses on smooth calibration error, providing a uniform convergence bound and proving the relationship with functional gradient.
result Derives conditions for simultaneous classification and calibration guarantees in gradient boosting trees, kernel boosting, and neural networks.
This paper improves DNN generalization by accurately estimating mutual information.
problem Intractability of estimating mutual information in DNNs.
method Introduces a probabilistic representation of DNNs to accurately estimate mutual information.
result Derives a tighter generalization bound than previous relaxations.
Data-driven models are subject to model errors due to limited and noisy training data. Key to the application of such models in safety-critical domains is the quantification of their model error. Gaussian processes provide such a measure and uniform error bounds have been derived, which allow safe control based on thes…
End-to-end algorithm for controlling bilinear systems with probabilistic noise.
problem Controlling bilinear systems with noisy data.
method Proposes an end-to-end algorithm using statistical learning theory and robust controller design.
result Derived finite sample identification error bounds and structurally suitable for control.
Estimates chirp signal frequencies using probabilistic models.
problem Estimating instantaneous frequencies of chirp signals when true forms are unknown.
method Non-linear Gaussian processes and stochastic filters/smothers for posterior estimation.
result The method outperforms state-of-the-art methods on synthetic and real-world datasets.
In this paper, we bound the error induced by using a weighted skeletonization of two data sets for computing a two sample test with kernel maximum mean discrepancy. The error is quantified in terms of the speed in which heat diffuses from those points to the rest of the data, as well as how at the weights on the refere…
This paper addresses error bounds and posterior variance for Gaussian process regression.
problem Deriving performance guarantees for Gaussian process regression without prior knowledge.
method Lipschitz continuity and analysis of posterior variance function.
result Uniform error bounds for Gaussian process regression are derived.
This paper introduces a new technique for quantifying the approximation error of a broad class of probabilistic inference programs, including ones based on both variational and Monte Carlo approaches. The key idea is to derive a subjective bound on the symmetrized KL divergence between the distribution achieved by an a…
New bounds quantify estimation error in kernel-based system identification with unknown hyperparameters.
problem Inaccurate error bounds for kernel-based system identification with unknown hyperparameters.
method Construct a high-probability set for true hyperparameters from marginal likelihood, then find worst-case posterior covariance.
result Proposed bounds contain true model with high probability and verified in simulations.
This note clarifies connections between Föllmer process and DDPM sampler.
problem Understanding the relationship between Föllmer process and DDPM sampler.
method Direct discretization of the Föllmer process and DDPM sampler analysis.
result Discretized Föllmer processes provide optimal hyper-parameters for DDPM samplers.
We show that the log-likelihood of several probabilistic graphical models is Lipschitz continuous with respect to the lp-norm of the parameters. We discuss several implications of Lipschitz parametrization. We present an upper bound of the Kullback-Leibler divergence that allows understanding methods that penalize the …
New bounds for kernel regression under non-Gaussian noise.
problem Uncertainty quantification for function estimates from noisy observations.
method Novel non-asymptotic probabilistic uniform error bounds for kernel-based regression.
result Proposed bounds apply to a broad class of non-Gaussian noise distributions.
The paper proposes methods for predicting missing values in mixed data matrices.
problem Matrix completion for mixed data types (continuous, binary, ordinal).
method Generalized latent factor models for low-rank matrix estimation with entrywise consistency.
result Tight probabilistic error bounds for the proposed estimators.
We introduce a probabilistic robustness measure for Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs), defined as the probability that, given a test point, there exists a point within a bounded set such that the BNN prediction differs between the two. Such a measure can be used, for instance, to quantify the probability of the existence…
Study improves theoretical understanding of Bayesian deep learning for classification tasks.
problem Theoretical gap in understanding Bayesian approaches in deep learning for classification.
method PAC-Bayes bounds techniques and Spike-and-Slab priors for sparse deep learning.
result Established non-asymptotic results for prediction error, achieving minimax optimal rates.
Develops probabilistic safety regions for scalable classifiers.
problem Minimizing misclassification errors in supervised classification.
method Introduces probabilistic safety regions and scalable classifiers.
result Probabilistic certifications for classifier performance.
This work presents a technique for statistically modeling errors introduced by reduced-order models. The method employs Gaussian-process regression to construct a mapping from a small number of computationally inexpensive `error indicators' to a distribution over the true error. The variance of this distribution can be…
The paper provides tighter error bounds for GPR under bounded support noise.
problem Rigorous error quantification for safety-critical applications with bounded noise.
method Using concentration inequalities and low complexity assumptions in RKHS, the paper derives probabilistic and deterministic error bounds for GPR.
result The derived error bounds are substantially tighter than existing state-of-the-art bounds and are particularly well-suited for GPR with neural network kernels.
ET-GP-UCB optimizes time-varying functions without knowing change rates.
problem Sequentially optimizing a time-varying objective function with unknown change rates.
method Event-triggered Bayesian optimization with adaptive resets based on probabilistic uniform error bounds.
result ET-GP-UCB outperforms other GP-UCB algorithms in synthetic and real-world data.
Unified framework for information-theoretic bounds on learning algorithms.
problem Deriving generalization bounds for learning algorithms.
method Probabilistic decorrelation lemma, symmetrization, couplings, chaining, Young's inequality.
result New upper bounds on generalization error in expectation and high probability.
Given a real matrix A with n columns, the problem is to approximate the Gram product AA^T by c << n weighted outer products of columns of A. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the exact computation of AA^T (in exact arithmetic) from c >= rank(A) columns depend on the right singular vector matrix of A. For a Monte-…
Probabilistic Autoencoder learns latent space weights' distribution.
problem Nonlinear model reconstruction error and sample quality.
method Normalizing flow for latent space weights' probability distribution.
result PAE achieves small reconstruction errors, high sample quality, and good performance.
Statistical model checking for PCTL on MDPs using reinforcement learning.
problem Model checking PCTL specifications on MDPs with statistical methods.
method Reinforcement learning for policy search, statistical model checking with UCB-based Q-learning.
result Provably guaranteed statistical model checking method for PCTL specifications on MDPs.
Calibrated probabilistic solvers improve accuracy of ODE estimates.
problem Uncertainty in probabilistic ODE solutions is not well-calibrated for adaptive step sizes.
method Introduce and assess several calibration methods for probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Calibration methods interact efficiently with adaptive step-size selection, improving posteriors.
This paper introduces minimum-risk recalibration for probabilistic classifiers, improving their reliability and accuracy.
problem Improving the reliability and accuracy of probabilistic classifiers.
method Minimum-risk recalibration within the MSE decomposition framework, analyzing UMB method and label shift adaptation.
result The optimal number of bins for UMB scales with n1/3, resulting in a risk bound of approximately O(n−2/3). Improved deep probabilistic time series forecasting by learning error autocorrelation.
problem Simplification of time-independent error process and lack of serial correlation in existing models.
method Proposes a training method that incorporates error autocorrelation to enhance probabilistic forecasting accuracy.
result Improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification across multiple datasets.
New framework uses conformal predictions for robust, scalable machine learning classification.
problem Developing robust and reliable machine learning models for classification.
method Introducing scalable classifiers linked to statistical order theory and probabilistic learning theory, defining a score function and conformal safety set.
result Demonstrated practical implications in cybersecurity for identifying DNS tunneling attacks.
Proposes h-calibration for improving miscalibrated probability outputs of neural networks.
problem Improving reliability of probability outputs from neural networks.
method Probabilistic learning framework for calibration, including a simple yet effective post-hoc algorithm.
result Significantly better performance than traditional methods, validated by experiments.
Sparse Bayesian learning is a state-of-the-art supervised learning algorithm that can choose a subset of relevant samples from the input data and make reliable probabilistic predictions. However, in the presence of high-dimensional data with irrelevant features, traditional sparse Bayesian classifiers suffer from perfo…
LPF provides formal guarantees for aggregating multi-evidence in probabilistic tasks.
problem Lack of formal guarantees for multi-evidence reasoning in AI.
method LPF uses variational autoencoders and Sum-Product Networks to aggregate evidence items.
result Proves multiple formal guarantees including calibration preservation and error decay.
A new framework for PPLS combines noise estimation, optimization, and calibration.
problem Probabilistic PLS models need interpretable latent factors and calibrated uncertainty.
method End-to-end pipeline combining noise estimation, constrained optimization, and prediction calibration.
result Achieves near-nominal coverage and native calibrated uncertainty across benchmarks.
Paper presents a probabilistic model to improve LLM cascade performance.
problem Complexity of LLM cascades and their interaction error rates.
method Probabilistic model for joint performance distribution of LLMs.
result Improves area under the error-cost curve by 4.3% on average for cascades with k≥3 models.
K-DAREK improves KKANs for efficient function approximation with robust error bounds.
problem Efficient function approximation with uncertainty quantification for large-scale problems.
method Developed a novel learning algorithm, K-DAREK, for KKANs.
result Established robust error bounds that are distance-aware, improving efficiency and scalability.
Prob-GParareal adds uncertainty quantification to PinT solvers for differential equations.
problem Uncertainty in numerical solutions of differential equations.
method Prob-GParareal uses Gaussian processes to model Parareal correction function, providing probabilistic forecasts.
result Prob-GParareal yields accurate and robust probabilistic forecasts on various ODE systems.
Probabilistic method combines space and time uncertainties in PDEs.
problem Separate treatment of space and time in PDE solvers obscures interactions and error quantification.
method Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference methods interacting with probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Joint quantification of space- and time-uncertainty possible without sacrificing ODE solver performance.
The paper introduces a method to model error correlations in multivariate time series forecasting.
problem Accurate modeling of error correlations for reliable uncertainty quantification.
method Plug-and-play method that learns error covariance over multiple steps using low-rank-plus-diagonal and independent latent temporal processes.
result Improves predictive accuracy and uncertainty quantification without significantly increasing parameter size.
Paper presents new training methods for neural networks with tighter risk certificates.
problem Training probabilistic neural networks with tighter risk certificates.
method Derived from PAC-Bayes bounds, two training objectives implemented for the first time in neural networks.
result Competitive test set errors and non-vacuous risk bounds with tighter values than previous results.
Enhances traffic forecasting with dynamic regression incorporating error modeling.
problem Improving accuracy of traffic forecasts using deep spatiotemporal models.
method Integrates matrix-variate autoregressive (AR) model into loss function for error series of base model.
result Improved traffic forecasting performance on SOTA models with interpretable AR coefficients.
We propose a geometric assumption on nonnegative data matrices such that under this assumption, we are able to provide upper bounds (both deterministic and probabilistic) on the relative error of nonnegative matrix factorization (NMF). The algorithm we propose first uses the geometric assumption to obtain an exact clus…