We provide self-contained proof of a theorem relating probabilistic coherence of forecasts to their non-domination by rival forecasts with respect to any proper scoring rule. The theorem appears to be new but is closely related to results achieved by other investigators.
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48 results for “probabilistic dominance”
Defines diversification as a binary relationship between financial portfolios.
problem Defines diversification in a new binary relationship for financial portfolios.
method Proposes a new definition of diversification based on convex linear combinations and second order stochastic dominance.
result The proposed definition coincides with second order stochastic dominance.
American options can be equivalent to European options under certain conditions.
problem Determining when American options can be simplified to European options.
method Using methods from Jourdain and Martini, Chrsitensen, and convex duality.
result A first step towards verifying representability of American options.
Investigates the effects of nondominated sets of probability measures in robust models of finance.
problem Uncertainty in financial models due to multiple possible probability measures.
method Analyzes various results from mathematical finance literature under the assumption of nondominated sets of probability measures.
result Many classical results in robust models do not hold when the set of measures is nondominated.
Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is arguably the dominant statistical inference algorithm used in most popular "first-order differentiable" Probabilistic Programming Languages (PPLs). However, the fact that HMC uses derivative information causes complications when the target distribution is non-differentiable with respect…
Study introduces TeMoP model for better stock market predictions.
problem Decreasing prediction errors and robustness across datasets in machine learning models.
method Probabilistic multiple lag order model based on trend encoding.
result TeMoP model outperforms machine learning models in accuracy and stability across different stock indexes.
New method improves generalization of VAEs by reducing overfitting.
problem Generalization issues in VAEs overfitting to training data.
method Proposed a new training objective to improve amortized inference.
result Improved performance in image modeling and lossless compression.
Adding metadata abruptly changes network inference outcomes.
problem Understanding the impact of metadata on network inference.
method Investigated the effect of metadata on network inference problems.
result Metadata causes abrupt transitions in inference outcomes.
Paper introduces an efficient comparison operator for robust multi-objective optimization with uncertain objectives.
problem Optimizing with uncertain objectives in multi-objective problems.
method Empirical approach to compare solutions with arbitrary distributions of uncertain objectives.
result Higher optimization quality achieved at lower overheads compared to existing techniques.
Study improves seasonal forecasts using deep learning.
problem Challenges in generating large forecast ensembles and limited observations for verification.
method Developed a probabilistic deep neural network model.
result Demonstrated favorable skill compared to state-of-the-art dynamical forecast systems.
Deep models predict intraday electricity prices accurately.
problem Accurately forecasting intraday electricity prices.
method Two deep time series probabilistic models using ESNs with stochastic disturbances and copulas.
result Deep distributional models provide accurate short-term probabilistic price forecasts.
This review explores probabilistic forecasting methods in evolving energy markets.
problem Volatility and uncertainty in renewable energy markets require probabilistic forecasting for risk assessment.
method Traces evolution from Bayesian and distribution-based approaches to conformal prediction.
result Probabilistic forecasting offers a more comprehensive approach to risk assessment and market participation.
We employ random geometric digraphs to construct semi-parametric classifiers. These data-random digraphs are from parametrized random digraph families called proximity catch digraphs (PCDs). A related geometric digraph family, class cover catch digraph (CCCD), has been used to solve the class cover problem by using its…
VaSST uses soft symbolic trees for probabilistic symbolic regression.
problem Efficiently recover symbolic expressions from noisy data.
method Variational inference with soft symbolic trees.
result Superior performance in structural recovery and predictive accuracy.
Paper generalizes bipolar theorems for non-negative random variables.
problem Problems with existing bipolar theorems under stronger assumptions.
method Generalizes existing theorems in a robust probabilistic framework.
result Provides necessary and sufficient conditions for bipolar representation.
This paper shows a buy-and-hold strategy is asymptotically log-optimal for a market with a dominant asset.
problem Finding a safe and optimal investment strategy in a market with a dominant asset.
method Investment strategy based on the dominant asset and buy-and-hold approach.
result Buy-and-hold strategy on the dominant asset is asymptotically log-optimal with a sublinear rate of convergence.
Pre-conditioning is a well-known concept that can significantly improve the convergence of optimization algorithms. For noise-free problems, where good pre-conditioners are not known a priori, iterative linear algebra methods offer one way to efficiently construct them. For the stochastic optimization problems that dom…
Develop a framework to evaluate the reliability of probabilistic emulation of physical systems.
problem Evaluating the reliability of probabilistic forecasts in physical systems.
method Developing a framework to assess the reliability of probabilistic emulation across diverse 2D spatiotemporal systems.
result CRPS-trained ensembles achieve more reliable uncertainties on single-step prediction and autoregressive rollouts.
Framework for real-time win probability and player ability in sports.
problem Real-time evaluation and player assessment in team sports.
method Continuous dominance indicator (T-score) and T-process formulation.
result Decomposes competitive advantage into interpretable statistical components.
Although convolutional neural networks (CNNs) currently dominate competitions on image segmentation, for neuroimaging analysis tasks, more classical generative approaches based on mixture models are still used in practice to parcellate brains. To bridge the gap between the two, in this paper we propose a marriage betwe…
The success of deep learning has led to a rising interest in the generalization property of the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) method, and stability is one popular approach to study it. Existing works based on stability have studied nonconvex loss functions, but only considered the generalization error of the SGD in…
Connected domination numbers found for plane triangulations up to 13 vertices.
problem Finding connected domination numbers for plane triangulations.
method Analyzing triangulations of up to 13 vertices and proving the difference between connected and regular domination numbers can be arbitrarily large.
result Connected domination numbers for triangulations up to 13 vertices and upper bound for larger triangulations.
Many applications require that we learn the parameters of a model from data. EM is a method used to learn the parameters of probabilistic models for which the data for some of the variables in the models is either missing or hidden. There are instances in which this method is slow to converge. Therefore, several accele…
The Bethe free energy approximation is reliable when convex on a submanifold, the 'Bethe box'.
problem Accuracy of the Bethe free energy approximation in probabilistic inference.
method Analysis of convexity and verification conditions based on the Bethe Hessian matrix.
result The Bethe approximation is mostly accurate if it is convex on a submanifold, the 'Bethe box'.
Manifolds can be dominated by hypersurfaces in a sphere.
problem Dominating manifolds with hypersurfaces.
method Proving any smooth, closed, oriented manifold can be dominated by a codimension 1 submanifold of the sphere.
result Any smooth, closed, oriented manifold can be dominated by a codimension 1 submanifold of the sphere.
New method ranks multivariate distributions in SMOOP using q-dominance.
problem Lack of reliable methods to rank multivariate distributions in SMOOP.
method Introduces center-outward q-dominance and develops empirical test procedures.
result Proves q-dominance implies FSD and establishes a sample size threshold.
New framework for ranking distributions using variable fractional parameters.
problem Ordering distributions with varying steepness and local non-concavities.
method Introducing a function to replace the fixed parameter in fractional SD.
result Enables ranking of a broader range of distributions and incorporates dynamic greediness.
We show that non-domination results for targets that are not dominated by products are stable under Cartesian products.
We present a probabilistic model for natural images which is based on Gaussian scale mixtures and a simple multiscale representation. In contrast to the dominant approach to modeling whole images focusing on Markov random fields, we formulate our model in terms of a directed graphical model. We show that it is able to …
Research examines when 4-manifolds are dominated by geometric ones.
problem When is an orientable closed 4-manifold dominated by another?
method Focuses on geometric or fibred cases.
result Characterizes conditions for domination.
Entropy regularization improves interpretability of probabilistic clustering models.
problem Bayesian nonparametric mixture models often produce unbalanced cluster frequencies.
method Interpreting the posterior as penalized likelihood, entropy regularization reduces sparsely-populated clusters.
result The proposed entropy-regularized estimator enhances interpretability without sacrificing computational convenience.
3-manifolds can virtually dominate others with positive simplicial volume.
problem Domination of 3-manifolds with positive simplicial volume.
method Proving existence of finite covers with degree-1 maps.
result Virtual domination of 3-manifolds with positive simplicial volume.
Deep-PrAE improves rare-event simulation for black-box systems.
problem Evaluating rare safety-critical events in learning-based systems.
method Combines deep neural networks with IS to create statistically guaranteed estimations.
result Deep-PrAE provides accurate bounds on safety-critical event probabilities.
Study domination between non-Fuchsian surface group representations and anti-de Sitter geometry.
problem Domination problem between non-Fuchsian representations of closed surface groups.
method Analysis of branched harmonic immersions and construction of anti-de Sitter 3-manifolds.
result Found that representations admitting branched harmonic immersions dominate other representations, and constructed large families of branched anti-de Sitter 3-manifolds.
Seifert-Tait graphsmath.GT
Dominant knots have isomorphic Seifert and Tait graphs.
problem Understanding knot dominance through graph isomorphism.
method Examined alternating knots and their Seifert and Tait graphs.
result Isomorphic Seifert and Tait graphs indicate dominant knots.
New homology theory connects graph domination to subtle algebraic structures.
problem Understanding graph domination through algebraic homology.
method Interpreting überhomology as poset homology and showing its functorial properties.
result The Euler characteristic of bold homology equals the evaluation of the connected domination polynomial.
3-manifolds can be virtually dominated by maps of degree 8.
problem Understanding virtual domination of 3-manifolds.
method Proving existence of finite covers with specific map properties.
result Virtual 8-dominance of 3-manifolds.
Contact dominationmath.SG
Odd-dimensional manifolds have contact maps of non-zero degree.
problem Contact domination in odd-dimensional manifolds.
method Proving existence of maps from tight contact manifolds.
result Existence of non-zero degree maps from Liouville-fillable but not Weinstein-fillable contact manifolds.
Unified framework for efficient Frank-Wolfe optimization of Dominant Set Clustering.
problem Optimizing Dominant Set Clustering with various Frank-Wolfe algorithms.
method Unified framework for pairwise, standard, and away-steps Frank-Wolfe algorithms, with explicit convergence rates.
result Explicit convergence rates for Frank-Wolfe methods in Dominant Set Clustering.
New EI strategies using OWA and SSD for excess return.
problem Selecting EI portfolios that stochastically dominate a benchmark.
method Proposes a new OWA-based EI model and introduces a new SSD criterion.
result OWA-based EI portfolios stochastically dominate a benchmark and generate excess return.
We study a generalized family of stochastic orders, semiparametrized by a distortion function H, namely H-distorted stochastic dominance, which may determine a continuum of dominance relations from the first- to the second-order stochastic dominance (and beyond). Such a family is especially suitable for representing a …
Portfolio Analysis Based on Markowitz Stochastic Dominance Criteria: A Behavioral Perspectiveq-fin.PM
The paper analyzes how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions using Markowitz Stochastic Dominance criteria.
problem Understanding how behavioral investors make portfolio decisions.
method Developed stochastic optimization problems and MILP models to capture subjective decision weights and probability weighting functions.
result The developed models can be used to formulate computationally tractable portfolio analysis problems.
Finite simplicial complexes dominate certain manifolds with a bounded number of simplices.
problem Understanding the finite domination of manifolds by simplicial complexes.
method Proving that a manifold can be dominated by the -skeleton of a finite simplicial complex with a bounded number of simplices.
result The total number of simplices in the -skeleton is bounded above by a constant depending only on and the embolic volume of the manifold.
Proposes new rule for ranking investment prospects over long horizons.
problem Ranking investment prospects over long horizons considering bounded risk aversion.
method Introduces asymptotic fractional-order stochastic dominance with bounded relative risk aversion.
result Establishes equivalent conditions for the new rule under lognormal returns without mean non-negativity constraint.
Develops a new solver for optimizing with stochastic dominance constraints.
problem Optimizing with stochastic dominance constraints is computationally expensive and impractical.
method Introduces Light Stochastic Dominance Solver (light-SD) that uses Lagrangian properties and surrogate approximation.
result The light-SD solver demonstrates superior performance on various problems.
Solves risk minimization problem with SSD constraints.
problem Finding SSD-minimal quantile function under mixed constraints.
method Explicitly works out SSD-minimal solution and relates to Skorokhod problem.
result Explicit solution to risk minimizing problem.
Paper extends stochastic dominance for compound binomial distributions.
problem Stochastic dominance for infinite-mean random variables.
method Investigates properties and inclusion relationships of distribution classes, extends results to compound binomial distributions.
result Establishes necessary and sufficient conditions for first-order stochastic dominance preservation.
ARO overfits by making constraints dependent on uncertainty, leading to brittleness.
problem ARO's adaptive policies become brittle when realizations fall outside the uncertainty set.
method Assigning constraint-specific uncertainty set sizes with probabilistic guarantees.
result Regularization through specific uncertainty set sizes ensures stability and flexibility.