Proposes a method to reconcile count time series forecasts.
problem No formal framework for probabilistic reconciliation of count time series.
method Generalizes Bayes' rule for reconciling real-valued and count variables.
result Improves forecast accuracy for count variables compared to Gaussian reconciliation.
Probabilistic theory counts intersections in Riemannian spaces.
problem Counting intersections in Riemannian homogeneous spaces.
method Introduces probabilistic intersection ring HE(M), a graded commutative and associative real Banach algebra. result Probabilistic intersection ring structure defined for spheres, real projective space, and complex projective space.
Multivariate count data are defined as the number of items of different categories issued from sampling within a population, which individuals are grouped into categories. The analysis of multivariate count data is a recurrent and crucial issue in numerous modelling problems, particularly in the fields of biology and e…
Proposes PSCCA for estimating correlations and canonical correlations in sparse count data.
problem Estimating correlations and canonical correlations in sparse count data from next-generation sequencing.
method Probabilistic approach for sparse count data sets (PSCCA).
result PSCCA outperforms other methods in estimating true correlations and canonical correlations at the natural parameter level.
odeN efficiently approximates multiple temporal motifs in large networks.
problem Efficiently counting multiple temporal motifs in large temporal networks.
method odeN is a sampling-based algorithm that provides accurate probabilistic approximations of motif counts.
result odeN provides accurate approximations of motif counts in a fraction of the time needed by state-of-the-art methods.
Novel Bayesian method for high-dimensional count data prediction.
problem Count data in high-dimensional settings requires feature selection.
method Pseudo-Bayesian framework with scaled Student prior and exponential weights.
result Strong performance compared to Lasso in various settings.
Neuro# learns heuristics to speed up #SAT solvers.
problem Efficiently solving #SAT problems for large industrial instances.
method Learning branching heuristics to improve #SAT solver performance.
result Neuro# reduces step count and wall-clock time on diverse problem families.
A deep probabilistic model analyzes DNA-encoded library data for efficient screening.
problem Complex data from DNA-encoded library experiments mask underlying signals.
method Compositional deep probabilistic model of DEL data, modeling latent reactions between synthons.
result DEL-Compose model demonstrates strong performance and valuable insights.
Method improves microbial biomass yield estimation from noisy data.
problem Estimating microbial biomass yields from noisy cell counts and substrate measurements.
method Probabilistic macrochemical modeling to relax cell weight assumptions and improve robustness.
result Model provides accurate uncertainty estimates of key parameters.
Probabilistic proof shows separability in free groups.
problem Proving separability of infinite index subgroups in free groups.
method Probabilistic approach using homomorphisms onto alternating groups.
result Existence of a homomorphism preserving non-conjugacy.
Warped DLMs improve forecasting for count time series.
problem Limited options for modeling count time series data.
method Introduces a semiparametric methodology using warping of Gaussian DLMs.
result Demonstrates improved forecasting capabilities for count time series.
Probabilistic programming aids in automatically dating ice cores, reducing manual error and uncertainty.
problem Automatically dating ice cores with high accuracy and capturing uncertainty.
method Probabilistic models and probabilistic programming for automatic inference.
result Demonstrated the use of probabilistic programming for ice core dating, showcasing its benefits and limitations.
Proposes a new algorithm for efficient probabilistic reconciliation of forecasts.
problem Ensuring coherence in forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Bottom-Up Importance Sampling algorithm for any type of forecast distribution.
result Significant improvement over base probabilistic forecasts in experiments.
ALℓ0CORE tensor decomposition reduces computational cost for sparse count data.
problem Efficiently decompose sparse count data matrices.
method Probabilistic Tucker decomposition with ℓ0-norm constraint. result ALℓ0CORE achieves similar results to full Tucker decomposition at a fraction of the cost. New approach combines geometric and probabilistic methods to estimate manifold dimension in high-dimensional data.
problem Estimating the dimension of manifolds in high-dimensional data.
method Combines a modified box-counting algorithm (geometric) and a new probabilistic method (nearest neighbor distance analysis).
result The combined method is robust, fast, and effective in estimating manifold dimension.
Bayesian model forecasts hospital resource use during pandemic.
problem Modeling constrained hospital resources during pandemic.
method Approximate Bayesian Computation for an ACED-HMM.
result Mechanistic approach provides competitive probabilistic forecasts.
Archetypal analysis represents a set of observations as convex combinations of pure patterns, or archetypes. The original geometric formulation of finding archetypes by approximating the convex hull of the observations assumes them to be real valued. This, unfortunately, is not compatible with many practical situations…
We introduce a novel generative formulation of deep probabilistic models implementing "soft" constraints on their function dynamics. In particular, we develop a flexible methodological framework where the modeled functions and derivatives of a given order are subject to inequality or equality constraints. We then chara…
Many applications, such as text modelling, high-throughput sequencing, and recommender systems, require analysing sparse, high-dimensional, and overdispersed discrete (count-valued or binary) data. Although probabilistic matrix factorisation and linear/nonlinear latent factor models have enjoyed great success in modell…
The study uses Gaussian Processes with Tweedie likelihood for forecasting intermittent time series.
problem Forecasting intermittent time series with high accuracy and flexibility.
method The approach combines Gaussian Processes with two forecast distributions: negative binomial and Tweedie.
result TweedieGP provides better probabilistic forecasts, especially for high quantiles.
The M5 competition tackles overdispersed retail sales forecasting with GAMLSS.
problem Overdispersed and zero-inflated retail sales data.
method Distributional forecasting using GAMLSS framework.
result GAMLSS provides better probabilistic forecasting for count data.
Improves reliability diagrams for probabilistic forecasts.
problem Lack of stability in reliability diagrams hampered their use.
method CORP approach using non-parametric isotonic regression and PAV algorithm.
result Improved reliability diagrams with statistical consistency and reproducibility.
Unified tractability conditions for various compositional inference queries.
problem Analyzing tractability of probabilistic and causal inference queries.
method Algebraic perspective on circuits, focusing on semiring operators.
result Unified sufficient conditions for tractable composition of operators.
Bayesian models predict Collatz stopping times with high accuracy.
problem Predicting the total stopping time of Collatz sequences.
method Developed two complementary models: a hierarchical Negative Binomial regression and a mechanistic generative approximation.
result Bayesian models outperform generative approximations in predicting Collatz stopping times.
TIMELY improves consistency in labeling blood cell images.
problem Inconsistent labeling of blood cells in microscopy images leads to unreliable diagnoses.
method TIMELY combines pseudotime inference and hidden Markov trees to correct labeling mistakes.
result TIMELY outperforms baseline methods in identifying and correcting inconsistent labels.
PRAE identifies outliers and reconstructs inliers in autoencoders.
problem Accurately identifying anomalies in data.
method Probabilistic Robust AutoEncoder (PRAE) approach.
result PRAE effectively removes outliers and reconstructs inliers.
We present novel understandings of the Gamma-Poisson (GaP) model, a probabilistic matrix factorization model for count data. We show that GaP can be rewritten free of the score/activation matrix. This gives us new insights about the estimation of the topic/dictionary matrix by maximum marginal likelihood estimation. In…
Counting tripods on a flat torus using lattice point counting.
problem Counting finite BPS webs in flat torus geometry.
method Lattice point counting techniques in C2. result Asymptotic counting result for tripods on the torus.
Flow Matching for count data improves sample quality and efficiency.
problem Mapping between count distributions across batches or time points in high-dimensional count data.
method count-FM, a flow-matching framework based on a continuous-time birth-death process with local unit jumps.
result count-FM achieves better sample quality than representative baselines while using fewer parameters.
New theorem counts curves on orbifolds.
problem Counting curves on surfaces.
method Applied Mirzakhani's theorem to orbifolds.
result Curve counting theorem extends to orbifolds.
We can compare the expressiveness of neural networks that use rectified linear units (ReLUs) by the number of linear regions, which reflect the number of pieces of the piecewise linear functions modeled by such networks. However, enumerating these regions is prohibitive and the known analytical bounds are identical for…
A new method, Count-MORL, improves offline reinforcement learning by using state-action frequency.
problem Improving offline reinforcement learning performance.
method Integrates count-based conservatism into model-based offline reinforcement learning.
result The learned policy is near-optimal and outperforms existing methods.
Study geodesic paths on flat surfaces, comparing length and singularity counts.
problem Comparing geometric length and singularity counts on geodesic paths.
method Apply counting limit laws to infinite graphs and then to flat surfaces.
result Statistical comparison of geometric length and singularity counts on geodesic paths.
In X-ray binary star systems consisting of a compact object that accretes material from an orbiting secondary star, there is no straightforward means to decide if the compact object is a black hole or a neutron star. To assist this classification, we develop a Bayesian statistical model that makes use of the fact that …
Counts arcs in surfaces, proving convergence of geodesic currents.
problem Counting arcs of the same type in compact surfaces and related geometries.
method Derives convergence of geodesic currents to prove arc counts.
result Proves convergence of geodesic currents, leading to arc counting results.
Deviance-style normalization for sparse, jointly overdispersed count matrices
problem Jointly overdispersed count matrices
method Dirichlet-multinomial deviance residualization
result Preserves exact sparsity, evaluates in constant time, recovers multinomial residual
The paper proposes count echo state networks for forecasting graduate student enrollments.
problem Forecasting graduate student enrollments from historical data.
method Developed hierarchical count echo state networks and compared them to Poisson autoregressions and negative binomial models.
result Hierarchical negative binomial based echo state network is the superior model.
Counted essential surfaces in a knot's exterior, finding a unique pattern.
problem Counting essential surfaces in a knot's exterior.
method Counted essential surfaces by genus, using Euler totient function. Showed normal surfaces are connected by counting their components. Used Agol, Hass, and Thurston's tools to convert component counting into orbit counting.
result Found a unique pattern in the number of essential surfaces by genus.
New algorithm estimates complex probabilistic models efficiently.
problem Estimating complex probabilistic models with large data sets.
method Backfitting algorithm based on stochastic gradient descent.
result Outperforms other implementations for structured additive distributional regression.
Counting objects in digital images is a process that should be replaced by machines. This tedious task is time consuming and prone to errors due to fatigue of human annotators. The goal is to have a system that takes as input an image and returns a count of the objects inside and justification for the prediction in the…
We prove geometric and cohomological stabilization results for the universal smooth degree d hypersurface section of a fixed smooth projective variety as d goes to infinity. We show that relative configuration spaces of the universal smooth hypersurface section stabilize in the completed Grothendieck ring of variet…
New method enforces encoder sparsity in HPF for more interpretable feature selection.
problem Lack of encoder sparsity in HPF leads to lack of column-clustering property.
method Enforces encoder sparsity using a generalized additive model (GAM).
result Gains ability to perform feature selection and relates each representation to original features.
Proposes a robust EM algorithm for analyzing incomplete panel count data.
problem Missing reports in panel count data.
method Functional EM algorithm for non-parametric counting process mean function estimation.
result Robust to misspecification of Poisson process assumption and missing completely at random.
Calegari, Marques, and Neves count minimal surfaces in hyperbolic manifolds.
problem Counting minimal surfaces in hyperbolic manifolds.
method Using a laminar measure concept.
result An idea of a proof for counting minimal surfaces.
Better neural arithmetic logic units improve cell counting model generalization.
problem Neural networks struggle with high cell counts outside training data range.
method Introduced Neural Arithmetic Logic Units (NALU) for arithmetic operations in existing architectures.
result Improved cell counting accuracy for higher numeric ranges with better generalization.
Counts minimal tori in Riemannian manifolds with 6 or more dimensions.
problem Counting minimal tori in Riemannian manifolds.
method Introduces a function to count minimal tori and shows invariance under metric perturbations.
result The count function is invariant under metric perturbations.
Recurrent-DBN models dynamic relational data with interpretable latent structures.
problem Interpreting dynamic relational data with hidden structures.
method Recurrent Dirichlet Belief Network framework with hierarchical latent structures and efficient inference strategy.
result Recurrent-DBN discovers interpretable latent structures and improves link prediction.
In recent scene recognition research images or large image regions are often represented as disorganized "bags" of features which can then be analyzed using models originally developed to capture co-variation of word counts in text. However, image feature counts are likely to be constrained in different ways than word …