Automates model comparison in probabilistic programming.
problem Manual derivations for model comparison are error-prone and time-consuming.
method Message passing on a Forney-style factor graph with a custom mixture node.
result Automates Bayesian model averaging, selection, and combination.
Enhances Bayesian model comparison with a probabilistic framework for meta-uncertainty.
problem Uncertainty in posterior model probabilities (PMPs) when derived from finite data.
method Develops a fully probabilistic approach to quantify and represent meta-uncertainty over PMPs.
result Demonstrates utility in various BMC contexts, including regression, MCMC, and neural networks.
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
problem Evaluation of probabilistic top lists in classification.
method Elicitability through symmetric proper scoring rules.
result Brier score provides a well-suited metric for comparison.
Survey on probabilistic models and variational inference in deep RL.
problem Understanding and applying probabilistic models and variational inference in deep reinforcement learning.
method Detailed derivations and comparisons of recent advances in deep reinforcement learning.
result Comprehensive tutorial on probabilistic graphical models and variational inference in deep reinforcement learning.
Test log-likelihood comparisons can be misleading.
problem Misinterpretation of test log-likelihood in model comparison.
method Simple examples of model comparison and forecast accuracy.
result Test log-likelihood does not always correlate with model accuracy.
Predictive modelling and supervised learning are central to modern data science. With predictions from an ever-expanding number of supervised black-box strategies - e.g., kernel methods, random forests, deep learning aka neural networks - being employed as a basis for decision making processes, it is crucial to underst…
Framework quantifies semantic similarity between groups of embeddings.
problem Quantifying semantic similarity between groups of embeddings.
method Formulates model comparison task, contrasts generative models, uses information criteria.
result Achieves competitive results in Semantic Textual Similarity tasks.
Enhances AI models with human feedback for noisy data.
problem Improving AI model alignment with human feedback in noisy environments.
method Two-stage SL+LHF framework connecting machine learning with human feedback.
result The LNCA ratio identifies conditions for SL+LHF superiority over pure SL.
Probabilistic techniques are central to data analysis, but different approaches can be difficult to apply, combine, and compare. This paper introduces composable generative population models (CGPMs), a computational abstraction that extends directed graphical models and can be used to describe and compose a broad class…
Paper introduces an efficient comparison operator for robust multi-objective optimization with uncertain objectives.
problem Optimizing with uncertain objectives in multi-objective problems.
method Empirical approach to compare solutions with arbitrary distributions of uncertain objectives.
result Higher optimization quality achieved at lower overheads compared to existing techniques.
Paper improves uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge systems.
problem Improving uncertainty estimation in LLM-as-a-judge frameworks.
method Generalised probabilistic modelling and improved uncertainty estimates.
result Proposed uncertainty estimates significantly improve system efficiency.
Paper proposes a sequential statistical test for comparing imitation learning policies with near-optimal stopping.
problem Challenges in rigorously comparing imitation learning policies due to small sample sizes and potential p-hacking.
method Sequential statistical test that adapts the number of trials based on intermediate results, achieving near-optimal stopping.
result Reduces the number of evaluation trials by up to 32% compared to state-of-the-art baselines, saving significant time and effort.
The paper proves gradient and comparison inequalities for RCD spaces.
problem Gradient and comparison inequalities for RCD spaces.
method Elliptic Dirichlet problems and Talenti-type comparison.
result Sharp, rigid, and stable Talenti-type comparison results.
In this paper, we propose an active learning algorithm and models which can gradually learn individual's preference through pairwise comparisons. The active learning scheme aims at finding individual's most preferred choice with minimized number of pairwise comparisons. The pairwise comparisons are encoded into probabi…
A new measure PC allows fair comparison of AIWP and NWP models.
problem Fair comparison of AIWP and NWP model outputs.
method Postprocessing deterministic model outputs with isotonic distributional regression (IDR) and calculating PC as mean CRPS of postprocessed forecasts.
result The GraphCast model outperforms the ECMWF HRES model in WeatherBench 2 data.
Simple uniqueness proof for McKean-Vlasov systems with weak feedback.
problem Global and short-time uniqueness for McKean-Vlasov systems with small feedback.
method Simple probabilistic comparison argument robust to solution regularity.
result Global uniqueness for a broad class of McKean-Vlasov problems in the weak feedback regime.
We consider the problem of training probabilistic conditional random fields (CRFs) in the context of a task where performance is measured using a specific loss function. While maximum likelihood is the most common approach to training CRFs, it ignores the inherent structure of the task's loss function. We describe alte…
Bayesian model infers strengths from noisy tennis match outcomes.
problem Ranking tennis players from match outcomes.
method Bayesian approach to infer unobserved strengths and mapping function.
result Bayesian approach robust to different model specifications.
This text investigates relations between two well-known family of algorithms, matrix factorisations and recursive linear filters, by describing a probabilistic model in which approximate inference corresponds to a matrix factorisation algorithm. Using the probabilistic model, we derive a matrix factorisation algorithm …
ForGAN uses GANs for probabilistic forecasting of sensory data.
problem Challenges in traditional forecasting methods and difficulties in probabilistic methods.
method ForGAN combines GANs with conditional generative adversarial networks to learn data distributions and generate probabilistic forecasts.
result ForGAN outperforms traditional regression methods in probabilistic forecasting of sensory data.
Estimates robustness of BNNs with statistical guarantees.
problem Measuring robustness of BNNs against adversarial examples.
method Statistical verification techniques for probabilistic models.
result Quantifies uncertainty of BNN predictions in adversarial settings.
Statistical models outperform mechanistic models in short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
problem Comparing accuracy of mechanistic vs statistical models for short-term COVID-19 incidence forecasts.
method Empirical comparison of forecasts from mechanistic and statistical models using daily incidence data from six US states.
result Statistical models are at least as accurate as mechanistic models and better capture volatility.
Deep learning improves probabilistic PPDE solution accuracy.
problem Approximating solutions to path-dependent PDEs with limited basis selection.
method Deep learning for conditional expectation estimation with error bounds.
result Deep learning yields more accurate PPDE solutions, especially in high dimensions.
Hybrid model combines continuous and tractable probabilistic models.
problem Intractable probabilistic inference in continuous latent-space models.
method Continuous mixtures of tractable probabilistic models with finite integration points.
result Hybrid models achieve state-of-the-art performance in density estimation.
NGBoost boosts multivariate probabilistic regression.
problem Joint probabilistic regression for multivariate targets.
method Natural Gradient Boosting for nonparametric modeling.
result Competitive performance in oceanographic velocity prediction.
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can provide significant improvements in decision-making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energies such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in …
EiNets improve PCs for scalable probabilistic modeling.
problem Scalability issues in training PCs on real-world data.
method Combining einsum operations for speedups and memory savings; simplifying EM for PCs.
result EiNets can scale to large datasets like SVHN and CelebA.
State-space models (SSMs) are a highly expressive model class for learning patterns in time series data and for system identification. Deterministic versions of SSMs (e.g. LSTMs) proved extremely successful in modeling complex time series data. Fully probabilistic SSMs, however, are often found hard to train, even for …
Paper tackles noisy comparison oracle for robust clustering algorithms.
problem Finding robust clustering algorithms under noisy comparison oracle.
method Develops algorithms for k-center clustering and agglomerative hierarchical clustering using noisy comparison oracle.
result Proves robust algorithms achieve good approximation guarantees with high probability.
Fenrir uses probabilistic numerics to simplify solving initial value problems.
problem Solving initial value problems in ordinary differential equations.
method Probabilistic numerics and Gauss--Markov regression.
result The method simplifies parameter estimation in ODEs, making it easier and more robust.
Flexible model predicts sports outcomes over time.
problem Predicting sports outcomes with varying player/team skill over time.
method Probabilistic model using continuous-time Gaussian processes for dynamic parameters, efficient inference algorithm.
result Model outperforms competing approaches in predictive performance and scalability.
Research tackles novelty detection for mixed-type data, proposing probabilistic methods.
problem Detect anomalies in mixed-type datasets like numerical and categorical data.
method Experimental comparison of methods, probabilistic nonparametric model, autoencoder-based model.
result Developed robust methods for mixed-type data novelty detection.
Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid for better integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single expected value, probabilistic forecasts provide more information in the form…
MD-CGAN models forecast time series with probabilistic posterior distributions.
problem Limited applications of GANs in time series forecasting, especially with probabilistic predictions.
method Mixture Density Conditional Generative Adversarial Model (MD-CGAN) using Gaussian mixture output.
result MD-CGAN outperforms benchmarks, especially in noisy time series.
Quantile gradient boosted trees outperform other models in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
problem Forecasting high NO2 concentration episodes for effective air quality management.
method Compared 10 probabilistic forecasting models for NO2 concentration prediction.
result Quantile gradient boosted trees model outperformed others in predicting NO2 concentration distributions.
Self-consistency improves the accuracy of model comparison methods.
problem Improving the accuracy of model comparison methods when simulation models are misspecified.
method Supplement traditional simulation-based training with a self-consistency loss on unlabeled real data.
result Self-consistency training improves model comparison accuracy, especially in open-world scenarios.
Paper introduces methods to handle missing data in probabilistic regression trees.
problem Handling missing data in probabilistic regression trees.
method Three approaches: uniform probability, partial observation, and dimension-reduced smoothing.
result Preserves interpretability while extending applicability to incomplete datasets.
Deep learning method for comparing hierarchical models.
problem Intractability of Bayesian model comparison for hierarchical models.
method Amortized inference deep learning method for probabilistic programs.
result Excellent amortized inference across all BMC settings.
ProBoost boosts probabilistic classifiers by focusing on uncertain samples.
problem Improving probabilistic classifiers through targeted learning.
method ProBoost uses epistemic uncertainty to select challenging samples, increasing their weight for subsequent learners.
result ProBoost significantly improves classifier performance, especially with few weak learners.
Introduces PELP for graph-enhanced word embeddings.
problem Combining graph side-information into static word embeddings.
method Probabilistic embeddings using Laplacian priors.
result Unified and flexible approach to various embedding methods.
We provide a dynamic programming principle for stochastic optimal control problems with expectation constraints. A weak formulation, using test functions and a probabilistic relaxation of the constraint, avoids restrictions related to a measurable selection but still implies the Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman equation in the …
Bayesian method corrects for model selection multiplicity in regression.
problem Model selection multiplicity in regression analysis.
method Developed a Bayesian prior distribution based on Holm procedure analogy.
result Adequate multiplicity correction requires sparsity not provided by recommended priors.
New scoring rules improve probabilistic classification model evaluation.
problem Traditional scoring rules misalign with the preference for correct classifications.
method Introduces Penalized Brier Score (PBS) and Penalized Logarithmic Loss (PLL) to modify proper scoring rules.
result PBS and PLL better identify optimal checkpoints and early stopping points, leading to superior F1 scores.
The paper uses belief propagation to analyze rankings and partial orders from partial information.
problem Analyzing rankings and partial orders from incomplete data.
method Continuous spin system and belief propagation algorithm.
result Computes marginal distribution and approximates number of linear extensions.
Develops a new approach to optimal control of stochastic systems.
problem Optimal control of stochastic nonlinear dynamical systems is challenging.
method Formulates optimal control as input estimation, using probabilistic inference and Expectation Maximization.
result Extracts time-varying linear Gaussian feedback controllers from the joint state-action distribution.
We present a sparse estimation and dictionary learning framework for compressed fiber sensing based on a probabilistic hierarchical sparse model. To handle severe dictionary coherence, selective shrinkage is achieved using a Weibull prior, which can be related to non-convex optimization with p-norm constraints for $0…
We propose a novel parameterized family of Mixed Membership Mallows Models (M4) to account for variability in pairwise comparisons generated by a heterogeneous population of noisy and inconsistent users. M4 models individual preferences as a user-specific probabilistic mixture of shared latent Mallows components. Our k…
A new Bayesian MBRL method improves performance in robotics tasks.
problem Enhancing model-based reinforcement learning with uncertainty.
method Introduces variational inference MPC and probabilistic action ensembles with trajectory sampling (PaETS).
result Consistently improves performance on challenging locomotion tasks.