We introduce an approximate search algorithm for fast maximum a posteriori probability estimation in probabilistic programs, which we call Bayesian ascent Monte Carlo (BaMC). Probabilistic programs represent probabilistic models with varying number of mutually dependent finite, countable, and continuous random variable…
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48 results for “probabilistic algorithms”
Improves probabilistic programming by analyzing program structure.
problem Inefficiency and limitations of single inference algorithms in probabilistic programming.
method Three novel techniques: static and dynamic analyses to adapt programs for more efficient inference.
result Improves probabilistic programming by making inference more efficient.
We present a new algorithm for approximate inference in probabilistic programs, based on a stochastic gradient for variational programs. This method is efficient without restrictions on the probabilistic program; it is particularly practical for distributions which are not analytically tractable, including highly struc…
It has recently been shown that many of the existing quasi-Newton algorithms can be formulated as learning algorithms, capable of learning local models of the cost functions. Importantly, this understanding allows us to safely start assembling probabilistic Newton-type algorithms, applicable in situations where we only…
Fast algorithm solves BVPs in linear time with probabilistic uncertainty.
problem Solving boundary value problems efficiently and accurately.
method Gauss--Markov prior tailored to BVPs, linear-time computation.
result Probabilistic solution with linear time complexity and comparable quality.
Pyro is a probabilistic programming language built on Python as a platform for developing advanced probabilistic models in AI research. To scale to large datasets and high-dimensional models, Pyro uses stochastic variational inference algorithms and probability distributions built on top of PyTorch, a modern GPU-accele…
Probabilistic method combines space and time uncertainties in PDEs.
problem Separate treatment of space and time in PDE solvers obscures interactions and error quantification.
method Gaussian process interpretation of finite difference methods interacting with probabilistic ODE solvers.
result Joint quantification of space- and time-uncertainty possible without sacrificing ODE solver performance.
Probabilistic modeling is a powerful approach for analyzing empirical information. We describe Edward, a library for probabilistic modeling. Edward's design reflects an iterative process pioneered by George Box: build a model of a phenomenon, make inferences about the model given data, and criticize the model's fit to …
New algorithm minimizes regret in multi-agent bandit problem with probabilistic communication.
problem Minimizing group regret in multi-agent multi-armed bandit problem with probabilistic communication.
method Proposes a new UCB-based algorithm for decentralized multi-agent multi-armed bandit problem on -regular graphs with probabilistic communication.
result The proposed algorithm outperforms state-of-the-art algorithms in minimizing group regret.
We deliver a call to arms for probabilistic numerical methods: algorithms for numerical tasks, including linear algebra, integration, optimization and solving differential equations, that return uncertainties in their calculations. Such uncertainties, arising from the loss of precision induced by numerical calculation …
Probabilistic inference procedures are usually coded painstakingly from scratch, for each target model and each inference algorithm. We reduce this effort by generating inference procedures from models automatically. We make this code generation modular by decomposing inference algorithms into reusable program-to-progr…
Paper introduces md-vtrees for efficient probabilistic and causal inference.
problem Efficient inference in complex probabilistic models.
method Introduces md-vtrees to generalize tractability conditions for advanced inference queries.
result Derives first polytime algorithms for causal inference queries.
SPPL simplifies probabilistic programming for exact inference.
problem Efficient exact inference in probabilistic models.
method SPPL translates probabilistic programs into sum-product expressions, leveraging new techniques for scalability.
result SPPL achieves up to 3500x speedups in exact inference.
Extends PCVM for multi-class classification with improved accuracy.
problem Lack of probabilistic outputs and contradictory predictions in multi-class classification.
method Proposes mPCVM with two learning algorithms: top-down and bottom-up.
result Superior performance, especially with many classes, validated on synthetic and benchmark data.
In this paper, we propose a probabilistic optimization method, named probabilistic incremental proximal gradient (PIPG) method, by developing a probabilistic interpretation of the incremental proximal gradient algorithm. We explicitly model the update rules of the incremental proximal gradient method and develop a syst…
This paper introduces the probabilistic module interface, which allows encapsulation of complex probabilistic models with latent variables alongside custom stochastic approximate inference machinery, and provides a platform-agnostic abstraction barrier separating the model internals from the host probabilistic inferenc…
pRSL combines probabilistic rules to improve multi-label classification.
problem Modeling the structure between multi-label classes for better performance.
method Uses probabilistic propositional logic rules and belief propagation to combine predictions from multiple classifiers.
result pRSL achieves state-of-the-art performance on various benchmark datasets.
This manuscript proposes a probabilistic framework for algorithms that iteratively solve unconstrained linear problems with positive definite for . The goal is to replace the point estimates returned by existing methods with a Gaussian posterior belief over the elements of the inverse of , which can …
NP-HMC extends HMC for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
problem Inference for nonparametric models in probabilistic programming.
method Introduces NP-HMC, a generalization of HMC for nonparametric models using tree representable functions.
result Empirically shows significant performance improvements over existing approaches.
We propose design guidelines for a probabilistic programming facility suitable for deployment as a part of a production software system. As a reference implementation, we introduce Infergo, a probabilistic programming facility for Go, a modern programming language of choice for server-side software development. We argu…
New method classifies manifold-valued data using Riemannian geometry.
problem Classifying data on curved Riemannian manifolds.
method Probabilistic Learning Vector Quantization on Symmetric Positive Definite Matrices.
result The method outperforms traditional Euclidean methods on manifold-valued data.
Probabilistic approach to Boolean matrix factorization can provide solutions robustagainst noise and missing values with linear computational complexity. However,the assumption about latent factors can be problematic in real world applications.This study proposed a new probabilistic algorithm free of assumptions of lat…
Optimal discovery with probabilistic expert advice: finite time analysis and macroscopic optimalitycs.LG
We consider an original problem that arises from the issue of security analysis of a power system and that we name optimal discovery with probabilistic expert advice. We address it with an algorithm based on the optimistic paradigm and on the Good-Turing missing mass estimator. We prove two different regret bounds on t…
In this tutorial, I will discuss the details about how Probabilistic Latent Semantic Analysis (PLSA) is formalized and how different learning algorithms are proposed to learn the model.
Many practical techniques for probabilistic inference require a sequence of distributions that interpolate between a tractable distribution and an intractable distribution of interest. Usually, the sequences used are simple, e.g., based on geometric averages between distributions. When models are expressed as probabili…
Unified approach to path planning using probabilistic inference on factor graphs.
problem Path planning problems using probabilistic inference.
method Unified framework using probabilistic factor graphs and message composition rules.
result Unified approach includes various algorithms like Sum-product, Max-product, Dynamic programming, and mixed criteria.
We present Natural Gradient Boosting (NGBoost), an algorithm for generic probabilistic prediction via gradient boosting. Typical regression models return a point estimate, conditional on covariates, but probabilistic regression models output a full probability distribution over the outcome space, conditional on the cov…
Probabilistic learning for binary classification with categorical variables.
problem Binary classification with categorical covariates.
method Probabilistic analysis and two algorithms for learning boolean functions.
result Effective learning of boolean functions from binary data.
Paper develops probabilistic bounds for a stochastic gradient algorithm in non-convex problems.
problem Stochastic optimization in non-convex finite sum problems.
method Develops a new dimension-free Azuma-Hoeffding type bound for a martingale difference sequence.
result Empirical results show superior probabilistic performance of Prob-SARAH compared to other algorithms.
Prob-GParareal adds uncertainty quantification to PinT solvers for differential equations.
problem Uncertainty in numerical solutions of differential equations.
method Prob-GParareal uses Gaussian processes to model Parareal correction function, providing probabilistic forecasts.
result Prob-GParareal yields accurate and robust probabilistic forecasts on various ODE systems.
We describe a probabilistic (generative) view of affinity matrices along with inference algorithms for a subclass of problems associated with data clustering. This probabilistic view is helpful in understanding different models and algorithms that are based on affinity functions OF the data. IN particular, we show how(…
Bayesian scores improve structure learning in probabilistic circuits.
problem Improper structure learning in probabilistic circuits based on heuristics.
method Developed Bayesian structure scores for deterministic PCs, using them in a greedy cutset algorithm.
result Effective protection against overfitting and fast, almost hyper-parameter-free structure learner.
ProbDR framework interprets DR algorithms as probabilistic inference.
problem Efficiently compressing high-dimensional data into lower dimensions.
method ProbDR variational framework that treats DR as probabilistic inference.
result ProbDR unifies various DR algorithms and enables probabilistic reasoning.
New method stabilizes probabilistic ODE solvers for high accuracy.
problem Numerical instability in high-order ODE solvers.
method Accurate initialisation, coordinate change preconditioner, square-root implementation.
result Probabilistic ODE solvers can now achieve high order (up to 11) with stability.
Approximate probabilistic inference algorithms are central to many fields. Examples include sequential Monte Carlo inference in robotics, variational inference in machine learning, and Markov chain Monte Carlo inference in statistics. A key problem faced by practitioners is measuring the accuracy of an approximate infe…
Efficiently solves high-dimensional ODEs with probabilistic methods.
problem Solving high-dimensional ODEs with uncertainty quantification.
method Probabilistic numerical algorithm based on independence assumptions or Kronecker structure.
result Efficient probabilistic solutions for ODEs with millions of dimensions.
Probabilistic methods improve SHM by learning from noisy, incomplete data.
problem Noisy and incomplete SHM data, lack of prior labels.
method Probabilistic algorithms for semi-supervised, active, and multi-task learning.
result Probabilistic methods enhance SHM by incorporating new data.
Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a popular tool for dimensionality reduction and feature extraction in data analysis. There is a probabilistic version of PCA, known as Probabilistic PCA (PPCA). However, standard PCA and PPCA are not robust, as they are sensitive to outliers. To alleviate this problem, this paper i…
Probabilistic Temporal Tensor Factorization (PTTF) is an effective algorithm to model the temporal tensor data. It leverages a time constraint to capture the evolving properties of tensor data. Nowadays the exploding dataset demands a large scale PTTF analysis, and a parallel solution is critical to accommodate the tre…
The balance between exploration and exploitation is a key problem for reinforcement learning methods, especially for Q-learning. In this paper, a fidelity-based probabilistic Q-learning (FPQL) approach is presented to naturally solve this problem and applied for learning control of quantum systems. In this approach, fi…
Proposes a new algorithm for efficient probabilistic reconciliation of forecasts.
problem Ensuring coherence in forecasts for hierarchical time series.
method Bottom-Up Importance Sampling algorithm for any type of forecast distribution.
result Significant improvement over base probabilistic forecasts in experiments.
Study develops efficient algorithm for probabilistic penetration response of composite plates.
problem Probabilistic modeling of discrete structural response, focusing on binary events like buckling.
method Adaptive domain-based decomposition, sparse grid sampling, assumption of monotonic behavior.
result Efficient computational framework for probabilistic penetration response of composite plates.
Probabilistic grammars improve equation discovery from data.
problem Discovering scientific laws from data using equations.
method Proposed probabilistic context-free grammars to encode soft constraints and a Monte-Carlo algorithm.
result Probabilistic grammars lead to more efficient equation discovery.
Probabilistic active meta-learning improves data efficiency in robotics.
problem Data-efficient learning in robotics where data collection is expensive.
method Conceptualizing meta-learning with a probabilistic latent variable model for sequential task selection.
result Improves data efficiency compared to baselines on simulated robotic experiments.
Probabilistic fair clustering tackles uncertain group membership.
problem Fair clustering with imperfect group membership.
method Probabilistic algorithms for metric graphs and metric membership.
result Approximation ratio guarantees for fair clustering.
A new method for efficient inference in probabilistic programs with mixed support.
problem Challenges in inference for programs with both continuous and discrete latent variables.
method Stochastic gradient Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms.
result Outperforms existing composing inference baselines and works almost as well as inference in marginalized versions.
Recently, two-dimensional canonical correlation analysis (2DCCA) has been successfully applied for image feature extraction. The method instead of concatenating the columns of the images to the one-dimensional vectors, directly works with two-dimensional image matrices. Although 2DCCA works well in different recognitio…
In this paper, we propose a model-based clustering method (TVClust) that robustly incorporates noisy side information as soft-constraints and aims to seek a consensus between side information and the observed data. Our method is based on a nonparametric Bayesian hierarchical model that combines the probabilistic model …