Optimizes Bayesian priors for matrix factorization without posterior inference.
problem Selecting optimal priors for Bayesian models in machine learning.
method Prior predictive distribution and virtual statistics matching user-provided or observed data statistics.
result Analytically determines hyperparameters for Poisson factorization models.
Paper identifies tensor ranks via prior predictive matching, solving system of equations.
problem Determining the latent dimensions (ranks) in tensor factorization models.
method Prior predictive moment matching to transform moment matching conditions into a log-linear system of equations.
result Identifies which tensor models have identifiable ranks and derives rank estimators.
Random forest model predicts tennis match outcomes with 80% accuracy.
problem Predicting tennis match outcomes before the game starts.
method Used a large database of tennis match information and a random forest model.
result Identified serve strength as a key predictor of match outcome.
MARS meta-learns function scores for improved predictive accuracy and uncertainty.
problem Difficulty in specifying expressive priors for Bayesian meta-learning.
method Meta-learning the score function of data-generating process marginals in the function space.
result State-of-the-art predictive accuracy and improved uncertainty estimates.
Midicoth compresses online probability estimates by correcting prior smoothing biases.
problem Compression inefficiency due to prior smoothing in adaptive models.
method Micro-diffusion denoising applied in a bitwise tree hierarchy.
result Significant compression improvement with reliable calibration.
Exploration is critical to a reinforcement learning agent's performance in its given environment. Prior exploration methods are often based on using heuristic auxiliary predictions to guide policy behavior, lacking a mathematically-grounded objective with clear properties. In contrast, we recast exploration as a proble…
CRUMB: Efficient Prior Fitted Network Inference via Distributionally Matched Context Batching
problem Inference of tabular foundation models with large training datasets
method CRUMB (Clustered Retrieval Using Minimised-MMD Batching)
result CRUMB outperforms state-of-the-art context selection strategies on the TabArena benchmark
FMP sampling improves model calibration without sharing data.
problem Difficulties in specifying priors for modern neural networks.
method FMP sampling replaces prior and likelihood with a predictive distribution, running the sampler centrally.
result FMP sampling significantly improves calibration over baseline methods.
New method improves generative modeling on convex domains using regularized mirror maps and Student-t priors.
problem Challenges in generative modeling on convex domains with heavy-tailed targets.
method Mirror Flow Matching with regularized mirror maps and Student-t priors.
result Empirically outperforms baselines and achieves competitive sample quality.
CW-Gen models improve probabilistic time series forecasting by incorporating prior information.
problem Challenges in probabilistic forecasting of multivariate time series due to non-stationarity, inter-variable dependencies, and distribution shifts.
method CW-Gen framework that incorporates prior information through conditional whitening. JMCE learns conditional mean and covariance, improving sample quality.
result CW-Gen consistently enhances predictive performance, capturing non-stationary dynamics and inter-variable correlations more effectively than prior-free approaches.
Proposes a non-adversarial method for distribution matching.
problem Stability and optimization challenges in adversarial matching methods.
method Non-adversarial VAE-based matching method with alignment upper bounds.
result Demonstrates applicability of non-adversarial matching methods without modifying original architectures.
TSFlow uses Gaussian processes to match priors for better time series forecasting.
problem Difficulties in aligning generative models' priors with time series data.
method Conditional flow matching (CFM) with Gaussian processes, optimal transport, and data-dependent priors.
result TSFlow produces high-quality unconditional samples and competitive forecasting results.
PAC-Bayesian bounds show fully connected DNNs with Gaussian priors match minimax rates.
problem Theoretical limits of fully connected deep neural networks with Gaussian priors.
method PAC-Bayesian bounds for fully connected Bayesian DNNs with Gaussian priors.
result PAC-Bayesian bounds match minimax-optimal rates in Besov space for nonparametric regression and binary classification.
Ecologists have long suspected that species are more likely to interact if their traits match in a particular way. For example, a pollination interaction may be more likely if the proportions of a bee's tongue fit a plant's flower shape. Empirical estimates of the importance of trait-matching for determining species in…
DALI improves inference for GANs by matching prior and conditional distributions.
problem Effective inference for generative adversarial models (GANs).
method Explicitly matches prior and conditional distributions in data and code spaces, constraining dependency structure.
result Significantly improves reconstruction and generation compared to other GAN inference models.
Optimality of TS with noninformative priors proven for Pareto model.
problem Optimality of Thompson Sampling with noninformative priors for Pareto bandits.
method Proved optimality of TS with certain probability matching priors, showed suboptimality with others, and found effectiveness of truncation procedures.
result TS with certain probability matching priors achieves optimal regret bound for Pareto model.
Propensity score matching improves fairness in machine learning models.
problem Bias in training data affects fairness metrics in machine learning models.
method Propensity score matching to evaluate and mitigate bias in test data.
result FairMatch significantly reduces bias in test data without sacrificing predictive performance.
Bayes-assisted confidence sequences improve efficiency for bounded means.
problem Efficient uncertainty quantification for bounded IID means without parametric assumptions.
method Bayesian working predictive model selects adaptive martingale updates maximizing predictive log-growth.
result Asymptotically log-optimal performance with informative priors reducing width and sampling effort.
Residual Prior Diffusion integrates coarse latent priors with diffusion models for better generative tasks.
problem Diffusion models struggle with representing both large-scale and fine-scale details in data distributions.
method Two-stage framework: first a coarse prior model captures large-scale structure, then a diffusion model represents the residual.
result RPD accurately captures fine-scale details while preserving large-scale structure, outperforming standard diffusion models.
PPT optimizes transformer behavior by steering its latent posterior using prior samples.
problem Eliciting desired behavior from transformers without backpropagation.
method Posterior Prefix Tuning (PPT) uses predictive Monte Carlo (PMC) samples and importance sampling to optimize the latent posterior.
result PPT optimizes transformer behavior without backpropagation, achieving high utility across different utility functions.
New method uses quotient predictor space for better PAC-Bayes bounds, reducing KL divergence and improving model performance.
problem Overparameterized models with continuous symmetries can lead to biased predictions.
method Perform PAC-Bayesian analysis on quotient predictor space, constructing a canonical prior that reflects model's implicit bias.
result The new prior reduces KL divergence and improves model performance in experiments.
Bayesian priors improve neural network performance on weak signals.
problem Challenges in encoding domain knowledge for weak signals in neural networks.
method Proposed a new joint prior over local scale parameters for feature sparsity and signal-to-noise ratio, optimized with Stein gradient.
result Improved prediction accuracy on various datasets, including genetics applications with weak and sparse signals.
We propose an extension of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) to graph-structured data, including strided convolutions and data augmentation on graphs. Our method matches the accuracy of state-of-the-art CNNs when applied on images, without any prior about their 2D regular structure. On fMRI data, we obtain a signifi…
L2M learns to match distributions for domain adaptation without relying on hand-crafted priors.
problem Difficult to directly match cross-domain distributions; existing methods fail to uncover underlying relationships.
method Learning to Match (L2M) framework that learns distribution matching loss using a meta-network in a data-driven way.
result L2M outperforms state-of-the-art methods on public datasets and transfers from pneumonia to COVID-19 images.
Using powerful posterior distributions is a popular approach to achieving better variational inference. However, recent works showed that the aggregated posterior may fail to match unit Gaussian prior, thus learning the prior becomes an alternative way to improve the lower-bound. In this paper, for the first time in th…
Bayesian predictive inference analyzes a dataset to make predictions about new observations. When a model does not match the data, predictive accuracy suffers. We develop population empirical Bayes (POP-EB), a hierarchical framework that explicitly models the empirical population distribution as part of Bayesian analys…
Decoupled PFNs improve sequential decision-making by separating epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties.
problem Sequential decision-making requires distinguishing between epistemic uncertainty about latent signals and irreducible aleatoric observation noise.
method Developed a decoupled PFN architecture that uses query-level labels to train separate heads for latent signal and aleatoric noise.
result Empirically, decoupled PFNs mitigate the failure mode of total-variance exploration in noisy and heteroscedastic settings.
When confronted with a substance of unknown identity, researchers often perform mass spectrometry on the sample and compare the observed spectrum to a library of previously-collected spectra to identify the molecule. While popular, this approach will fail to identify molecules that are not in the existing library. In r…
Dynamic paired comparison models, such as Elo and Glicko, are frequently used for sports prediction and ranking players or teams. We present an alternative dynamic paired comparison model which uses a Gaussian Process (GP) as a prior for the time dynamics rather than the Markovian dynamics usually assumed. In addition,…
Bayesian framework learns prior from data to quantify uncertainty in MRI reconstruction.
problem Quantifying uncertainty in deep learning solutions for inverse problems.
method Adopting denoising score matching to learn prior from data, using it in an annealed Hamiltonian Monte-Carlo scheme.
result The approach yields high-quality reconstructions and assesses uncertainty on specific features.
FMCPE improves SBI accuracy by correcting posterior estimators with flow matching.
problem Model misspecification in SBI leads to biased or overconfident posteriors.
method Flow Matching Corrected Posterior Estimation (FMCPE) trains a posterior approximator and corrects it using calibration samples.
result FMCPE consistently mitigates misspecification effects, improving inference accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
VAELLS learns latent manifold structure to improve VAE model accuracy.
problem VAEs struggle with mismatched latent structure and global structure.
method Integrates learnable manifold model into latent space of VAE.
result Improves model accuracy by matching prior to data manifold structure.
The paper proposes a method to determine the geometric priors of relational data.
problem Identifying geometric structure in heterogeneous, high-dimensional data.
method Combinatorial approach analyzing nearest-neighbor structures and local neighborhood growth rates.
result The method can identify the geometric priors of suitable embedding spaces for relational data.
Improved VAEs by training a contrastive prior to match posterior.
problem Prior hole problem in VAEs, leading to poor image generation.
method Introduced a contrastive energy-based prior and trained it using noise contrastive estimation.
result Significant improvement in VAE generative performance on various datasets.
We propose an online convex optimization algorithm (RescaledExp) that achieves optimal regret in the unconstrained setting without prior knowledge of any bounds on the loss functions. We prove a lower bound showing an exponential separation between the regret of existing algorithms that require a known bound on the los…
WS diffusion models handle anisotropic Gaussian noise better than conventional methods.
problem Handling anisotropic Gaussian noise in imaging inverse problems.
method Whitened Score (WS) diffusion models based on stochastic differential equations.
result WS DMs outperform conventional DMs on anisotropic Gaussian noise.
Estimates class prior for unlabeled data using kernel embedding.
problem Estimating class prior in PU learning scenario where only positive and full population samples are available.
method Direct estimator based on distribution matching and kernel embedding in Reproducing Kernel Hilbert Space.
result Asymptotic consistency and explicit deviation bound for the estimator.
WSD uses a deterministic model to accelerate diffusion-based sampling.
problem Slow refinement process in diffusion models.
method Warm-start model that predicts an informed prior conditioned on input context.
result Significantly reduces the number of diffusion steps required for realistic samples.
Prediction suffix trees (PST) provide an effective tool for sequence modelling and prediction. Current prediction techniques for PSTs rely on exact matching between the suffix of the current sequence and the previously observed sequence. We present a provably correct algorithm for learning a PST with approximate suffix…
Gluon optimizes LMO-based methods for large-scale tasks, improving performance and theory-practice gap.
problem LMO-based methods lack theoretical support for practical implementation and smoothness assumptions.
method Introduces Gluon, a new LMO-based method with refined smoothness model.
result Gluon's theoretical stepsizes match fine-tuned values, closing the theory-practice gap.
The study compares DLS method with machine learning for cricket match result prediction.
problem Improving accuracy of Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method for cricket match result prediction.
method Comparison of Duckworth-Lewis-Stern method with various supervised learning algorithms and optimization of DLS resource table.
result Development of Unpredictability Index to rank nations based on unpredictability in ODI matches.
This work tackles the challenge of Bayesian deep learning by proposing a new framework for matching Gaussian process priors with neural network parameters.
problem The challenge of specifying priors over neural network parameters, which affects the induced functional prior and is uncontrolled.
method The approach involves defining functional priors using Gaussian processes and matching these priors with the functional prior of neural networks through the minimization of Wasserstein distance.
result The proposed framework offers systematic performance improvements over alternative priors and approximate Bayesian deep learning approaches.
Variational Auto-Encoders (VAEs) are capable of learning latent representations for high dimensional data. However, due to the i.i.d. assumption, VAEs only optimize the singleton variational distributions and fail to account for the correlations between data points, which might be crucial for learning latent representa…
Paper improves compressed sensing with prior probability information.
problem Enhancing compressed sensing accuracy with prior information.
method Designing a sensing matrix and sparse recovery algorithm using probability-based prior information.
result Proposed methods outperform existing CS systems in simulations.
Proposes a new prior for complex models to improve prediction accuracy.
problem Difficulty in specifying priors for complex models like neural networks.
method Predictive complexity priors defined by comparing model predictions to a reference model, transferred to parameters via change of variables.
result Improves model predictions by reducing unintuitive effects of traditional priors.
Model predicts Bitcoin's future movements using multimodal pattern matching.
problem Challenges in predicting Bitcoin's volatile future movements.
method Ranking similar past chart patterns given current chart information.
result Improves directional prediction of Bitcoin's future movements.
Proposes a new method to estimate continuous treatment policies and match treatments effectively.
problem Current methods struggle with continuous treatment policies and complex matching.
method Formulates treatment effectiveness as a parametrizable model, using deep learning for optimization.
result Significant improvement in treatment effectiveness and matching efficiency.
New method learns disentangled representations using Gromov-Monge maps.
problem Learning disentangled representations from unlabelled data.
method Introduces a novel approach based on Gromov-Monge maps to preserve geometric features while aligning data distributions.
result Demonstrates effectiveness on four benchmarks, outperforming other methods.