Study improves convergence rates for GVI under prior misspecification.
problem Improving convergence rates for GVI under prior misspecification.
method Proves rates of convergence and robustness to prior misspecification in GVI framework.
result Establishes sufficient conditions for existence and uniqueness of GVI posteriors.
We study the robustness of active learning (AL) algorithms against prior misspecification: whether an algorithm achieves similar performance using a perturbed prior as compared to using the true prior. In both the average and worst cases of the maximum coverage setting, we prove that all α α α -approximate algorithms are …
UDA improves ABI robustness but fails under certain prior misspecifications.
problem Robustness of ABI in noisy real-world data.
method Systematic evaluation of UDA across various misspecification scenarios.
result UDA aligns summary spaces but can fail under prior misspecifications.
FedGVI improves FL robustness to model misspecification.
problem Limited robustness in FL approaches to model misspecification.
method Probabilistic Federated Learning framework that generalizes previous methods.
result FedGVI provides robust and calibrated predictions under model misspecification.
Extends Gaussian Process regression for handling multiple prior distributions.
problem Handling multiple prior distributions in Bayesian Machine Learning models.
method Mixtures of Gaussian Processes with analytical and Sparse Variational approaches.
result Effective in accounting for prior misspecification in functional regression problems.
The paper analyzes sparse high-dimensional linear regression with random design and unknown error variance, providing adaptiveness and concentration rates.
problem Sparse high-dimensional linear regression with random design and unknown error variance.
method Analysis of posterior concentration rates, employing techniques to address model misspecification.
result Adaptiveness and concentration rates of the posterior for sparse high-dimensional linear regression.
Adapts to misspecification in contextual bandits using offline regression.
problem Unexpected regret due to misspecified reward models.
method Adapts to misspecification by reverting to a safe policy when necessary.
result Regret guarantees degrade gracefully with misspecification level.
Rényi Neural Processes replace KL divergence with Rényi divergence to improve NP performance.
problem Parameterization coupling in Neural Processes leads to prior misspecification.
method Propose Rényi Neural Processes (RNP) by replacing KL divergence with Rényi divergence.
result Significant performance improvements in real-world problems, including better log-likelihoods.
Model selection is crucial to high-dimensional learning and inference for contemporary big data applications in pinpointing the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate interpretable models. Most existing work assumes implicitly that the models are correctly specified or have fixed dimensionality. Yet both …
New algorithms adapt to model misspecification in contextual bandits.
problem Design efficient algorithms for contextual bandits that handle model misspecification gracefully.
method Oracle-efficient algorithms for ε-misspecified contextual bandits using square loss regression.
result First algorithm achieving optimal regret bound for unknown misspecification level in linear contextual bandits.
New method reduces over-pessimism in Bayesian control under parameter uncertainty.
problem Over-pessimism in Bayesian control due to misspecified priors.
method Distributionally robust Bayesian control (DRBC) with strong duality and optimization.
result Validated algorithm on synthetic and real data, reducing over-pessimism.
Enhances predictive models against misspecification and outliers.
problem Suboptimal generalization under misspecification and outliers.
method Combines PAC m ^m m ensemble bounds with a generalized logarithm score function. result Produces predictive distributions resistant to both misspecification and outliers.
Paper introduces RVNP to improve SBI in misspecified models.
problem Misspecification in simulation-based inference leads to unreliable posterior estimation.
method RVNP uses variational inference and error modeling to bridge the simulation-to-reality gap.
result RVNP can recover robust posterior inference without hyperparameters or priors.
Paper proposes efficient method for evaluating Bayesian models in imaging.
problem Evaluation of Bayesian models in imaging when ground truth is unavailable.
method Novel combination of Bayesian cross-validation and data fission for unsupervised model selection and misspecification detection.
result Achieved excellent selection and detection accuracy with low computational cost.
Model misspecification is a long-standing enigma of the Bayesian inference framework as posteriors tend to get overly concentrated on ill-informed parameter values towards the large sample limit. Tempering of the likelihood has been established as a safer way to do updates from prior to posterior in the presence of mod…
New method improves experimental design under model misspecification.
problem Improving experimental design under time and budget constraints with model misspecification.
method Developed a new acquisition function (R-IDeA) that targets representativeness, informativeness, and de-amplification.
result The new method outperforms methods focusing on representativeness or informativeness alone.
Bayesian framework improves robustness in nonlinear regression models.
problem Measurement error, model misspecification, and distributional misspecification in regression analyses.
method Joint Dirichlet process prior on latent covariate-response distribution, updating with posterior pseudo-samples.
result Improved stability and consistency in estimators under increasing measurement error.
New research shows CPE only occurs when Bayesian posterior underfits.
problem Model misspecification leading to CPE under perfect model specification.
method Theoretical analysis of Bayesian posterior and underfitting.
result No CPE if there is no underfitting of the Bayesian posterior.
Improves Bayesian predictive performance in misspecified models.
problem Misspecification gap between inferential and predictive risks.
method Develops a multi-sample loss (PAC m ^m m ) to bridge the gap. result Empirical study shows improved predictive distribution.
FMCPE improves SBI accuracy by correcting posterior estimators with flow matching.
problem Model misspecification in SBI leads to biased or overconfident posteriors.
method Flow Matching Corrected Posterior Estimation (FMCPE) trains a posterior approximator and corrects it using calibration samples.
result FMCPE consistently mitigates misspecification effects, improving inference accuracy and uncertainty quantification.
Bayesian algorithms perform well even with misspecified priors, especially in meta-learning.
problem Performance degradation of Bayesian algorithms with misspecified priors.
method Thompson sampling and meta-learning analysis with misspecified priors.
result Thompson sampling's performance degrades gracefully with misspecification, with a bound of i l d e O ( H 2 ε ) ilde{\mathcal{O}}(H^2 ε) i l d e O ( H 2 ε ) . Preconditioned neural posterior estimation improves reliability in misspecified models.
problem Reliability issues in neural posterior estimation for misspecified models.
method Preconditioning with data-dependent weights and forest-proximity scores to stabilize and improve accuracy.
result Preconditioned robust neural posterior estimation increases stability and accuracy over standard methods.
Model selection is indispensable to high-dimensional sparse modeling in selecting the best set of covariates among a sequence of candidate models. Most existing work assumes implicitly that the model is correctly specified or of fixed dimensions. Yet model misspecification and high dimensionality are common in real app…
Study phase retrieval under misspecified models using generative priors.
problem Estimating signals from phase measurements with model misspecification.
method Two-step approach: spectral initialization followed by iterative refinement.
result Statistical rate of order ( k log L ) ⋅ ( log m ) / m \sqrt{(k\log L)\cdot (\log m)/m} ( k log L ) ⋅ ( log m ) / m under suitable conditions. Bayesian adaptive designs can be biased by active learning, especially with misspecified models.
problem Active learning bias in Bayesian adaptive experimental designs.
method Analysis of linear and preference learning models, empirical testing.
result Model misspecification and noise influence active learning bias in Bayesian designs.
In rank aggregation (RA), a collection of preferences from different users are summarized into a total order under the assumption of homogeneity of users. Model misspecification in RA arises since the homogeneity assumption fails to be satisfied in the complex real-world situation. Existing robust RAs usually resort to…
New algorithms for optimizing functions with noisy feedback, even when the model is misspecified.
problem Optimizing a black-box function with noisy bandit feedback, especially when the model is misspecified.
method Developed two algorithms based on Gaussian process methods: EC-GP-UCB and Phased GP Uncertainty Sampling.
result Achieved optimal dependence on misspecification error without prior knowledge, and effective in stochastic contextual settings.
For many machine learning algorithms, two main assumptions are required to guarantee performance. One is that the test data are drawn from the same distribution as the training data, and the other is that the model is correctly specified. In real applications, however, we often have little prior knowledge on the test d…
The paper highlights the importance of model misspecification in uncertainty estimation.
problem The reliability of uncertainty estimates in machine learning models under model misspecification.
method Thought experiments and literature review.
result Model misspecification should be given more attention in uncertainty estimation.
PAC-Bayesian matrix completion with a spectral scaled Student prior offers efficient inference.
problem Matrix completion with underlying low-rank structure.
method Spectral scaled Student prior and PAC-Bayesian bounds.
result Minimax-optimal oracle inequality for model misspecification and general sampling distribution.
Bayesian framework tackles measurement error in covariates.
problem Misleading inference due to corrupted covariates.
method Bayesian Nonparametric Learning framework robust to misspecification.
result General framework for Classical and Berkson error models.
Robust Bayesian inference improves model performance on discrete data.
problem Misspecification of discrete-valued models leads to poor inference and prediction.
method Total Variation Distance (TVD) for discrepancy, efficient estimator and inference method.
result Our approach significantly improves predictive performance on various data.
New method improves GP uncertainty quantification for misspecified priors.
problem Uncertainty quantification for GPs under incorrect priors.
method Constructs a confidence sequence using martingale techniques.
result Empirically outperforms standard GP methods in robustness and utility for Bayesian Optimization.
Combines boosting with Gaussian process and mixed effects models.
problem Model misspecifications and independence assumptions in boosting.
method Relaxes zero or linearity assumption in Gaussian process and mixed effects models, and independence assumption in boosting.
result Increased prediction accuracy compared to existing approaches.
Optimized α \alpha α -posteriors reduce KL divergence from true posterior in parametric misspecification.
problem Reduction of KL divergence from true posterior in parametric model misspecification.
method Derivation of Bernstein-von Mises theorem and optimization of α \alpha α -posteriors. result Optimized α \alpha α -posteriors minimize KL divergence from true posterior, especially in severe misspecification. Gaussian prior and likelihood improve bandit learning performance.
problem Improving bandit learning with misspecified Gaussian distributions.
method An agent with a bounded information ratio interacts with a Bernoulli bandit based on a Gaussian prior and likelihood.
result The regret increase is at most linear in the square-root of the time horizon for diffuse distributions.
Paper tackles SBI under model misspecification, presenting robust strategies.
problem Challenges in SBI under model misspecification.
method Three key strategies: robust summary statistics, generalised Bayesian inference, and error modelling.
result Empirical results show vulnerabilities of SBI and effectiveness of misspecification-robust alternatives.
GS-B 3 ^3 3 SE improves label shift estimation by smoothing priors on a graph.
problem Label shift adaptation when source and target distributions share conditional but not marginal probabilities.
method Graph-Smoothed Bayesian Black-Box Shift Estimator (GS-B 3 ^3 3 SE) places Laplacian-Gaussian priors on log-priors and confusion-matrix columns tied by a label-similarity graph. result GS-B 3 ^3 3 SE produces a tractable posterior with HMC or Newton-CG schemes, proving identifiability, contraction, and robustness. New approach to neural networks by incorporating observation noise and arbitrary prior means.
problem Misspecification on noisy data and limitations of NTK-GP equivalence.
method Introducing a regularizer for observation noise and proposing a shifted network for arbitrary prior means.
result Removes key obstacles to practical Gaussian process modeling in neural networks.
Study reveals model misspecification significantly impacts neural SBI algorithms.
problem Impact of model misspecification on neural SBI algorithms.
method Comprehensive study of neural SBI algorithms under various forms of model misspecification.
result Misspecification profoundly deleterious to performance of neural SBI algorithms.
The paper investigates model misspecification in Bayesian inference using neural networks.
problem Detecting model misspecification in Bayesian inference with neural networks.
method Conceptualized types of model misspecification and proposed an augmented optimization objective with MMD.
result MMD can detect potentially catastrophic misspecifications in Bayesian inference.
New algorithm mitigates misspecification amplification in regression models with covariate shift.
problem Distribution shift and model misspecification in regression models.
method Developed a new algorithm inspired by robust optimization to avoid misspecification amplification.
result No misspecification amplification while still achieving optimal statistical rates.
A new criterion selects models in overparameterized settings.
problem Model selection for overparameterized models with more parameters than data.
method Establishes Bayesian duality and introduces the Interpolating Information Criterion.
result The Interpolating Information Criterion selects models in overparameterized settings.
Detects model misspecifications in causal models using observational data.
problem Identifying predictor variables with causal effects in misspecified models.
method Develops a general framework based on observational data distribution and proposes an algorithm for finite sample data.
result Identifies predictor variables for causal effects even in misspecified models.
The paper tackles misspecification in contextual bandits by incorporating arm-specific variables.
problem Misspecification in contextual bandits due to unexplained inter-arm heterogeneity.
method Develops robust contextual bandit algorithms (RoLinUCB and RoLinTS) that incorporate arm-specific variables to address misspecification.
result The developed algorithms bound the n n n -round Bayes regret and show superior performance in various misspecification scenarios. New insights into bias-variance tradeoff for data-driven optimization under local misspecification.
problem Understanding the relative performance of SAA, IEO, and ETO under local misspecification.
method Developed a local misspecification perspective using contiguity theory in statistics.
result Explicit expressions for decision bias and geometric understanding of variance.
The paper improves SBI for BHMs by diagnosing misspecification and inferring parameters.
problem Model misspecification in Bayesian hierarchical models.
method Two-step framework: latent function diagnosis followed by SBI of target parameters.
result Improved simulation-based inference for complex models without explicit model checking.
New method selects FMM components via variational Bayes.
problem Selecting the correct number of components in finite mixture models.
method Variational Bayes with mean-field approximation.
result Consistency of model selection based on ELBO maximization.