Research
On-device research index

arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

169,181 papers · 148 categories

Trend · papers per month

25.0%50.0%75.0%100.0% · Sep 199219922001200920182026
48 results for prior and likelihood choices

The study examines how prior and likelihood choices affect Bayesian matrix factorisation on small datasets.

problem Improving predictive performance of Bayesian matrix factorisation on small datasets.
method Review and comparison of 16 Bayesian matrix factorisation models across four groups: Gaussian-likelihood with real-valued priors, nonnegative priors, semi-nonnegative models, and Poisson-likelihood approaches.
result Poisson models give poor predictions, and nonnegative models are more constrained than real-valued ones.

This paper examines how the choice of prior distribution affects likelihoods of out-of-distribution inputs in deep generative models.

problem Mismatch between prior and data distributions causes deep generative models to assign higher likelihoods to out-of-distribution inputs.
method Proposes using a mixture distribution as a prior to make likelihoods of out-of-distribution inputs more sensitive.
result A mixture prior lowers the out-of-distribution likelihood with respect to real image data sets.

The paper discusses the impact of prior densities on Bayesian model selection.

problem The sensitivity of marginal likelihood to prior choice in Bayesian model selection.
method Analyzes the role of prior densities in model selection, discusses improper priors, and proposes solutions.
result Marginal likelihood can be sensitive to prior choice, but improper priors can still be used with caution.

Two synthetic likelihood methods learn EBM of likelihood from simulator data for SBI.

problem Conduct inference from experimental observations using high-fidelity simulators.
method Learn conditional EBM of likelihood using synthetic data conditioned on parameters.
result Learned likelihood combined with prior yields posterior estimate for sampling.

Bayesian models use marginal likelihood; non-Bayesian use cross-validation, shown equivalent.

problem Comparing Bayesian and non-Bayesian models for evaluation.
method Showed marginal likelihood is equivalent to leave-p-out cross-validation, with log posterior predictive as scoring rule.
result Marginal likelihood and cross-validation are formally equivalent under data exchangeability.

Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an objective function and return the maximum a posteriori network as the learned model.…

2017-04-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Synthesizes sensor likelihoods to enforce accuracy constraints in uncertain systems.

problem Designing sensing architectures for systems with uncertain or unavailable sensor models and accuracy requirements.
method Inverts the design flow, synthesizing measurement likelihoods that minimize Kullback-Leibler divergence from the prior while enforcing an accuracy bound.
result The method synthesizes a maximum-entropy posterior and induced likelihood, accommodating various discrepancy metrics.

Develops methods for constructing parameter priors in DAG models.

problem Constructing parameter priors for model choice among DAG models.
method Introduces assumptions and methods for parameter priors construction and marginal likelihood computation.
result The only parameter prior for complete Gaussian DAG models that satisfies assumptions is the normal-Wishart distribution.

Bayesian network structure learning is often performed in a Bayesian setting, by evaluating candidate structures using their posterior probabilities for a given data set. Score-based algorithms then use those posterior probabilities as an objective function and return the maximum a posteriori network as the learned mod…

2016-05-12abs ↗pdf ↗

Develops methods for constructing likelihoods and priors for Bayesian networks.

problem Learning parameters and structure of Bayesian networks from limited data.
method Introduces assumptions for constructing likelihoods and priors from small assessments.
result Allows construction of likelihoods and priors for a wide range of network structures.

Bayesian neural networks' performance varies with prior choice, affecting their ability to identify unknowns.

problem The impact of prior choice on Bayesian neural networks' ability to identify unknowns.
method Evaluation of different prior distributions on classification tasks using BNNs and NNs with Monte Carlo dropout.
result Prior choice significantly impacts BNNs' ability to identify unknowns, affecting true and false positive rates.

Bayes-assisted confidence sequences improve efficiency for bounded means.

problem Efficient uncertainty quantification for bounded IID means without parametric assumptions.
method Bayesian working predictive model selects adaptive martingale updates maximizing predictive log-growth.
result Asymptotically log-optimal performance with informative priors reducing width and sampling effort.

A distributed method for Bayesian model choice using marginal likelihood and Monte Carlo sampling.

problem Bayesian model choice in large datasets with limited communication.
method Split data into subsets, locally compute model evidence, combine results using summary statistics.
result The method enables model choice in large datasets with speed-ups and theoretical error bounds.

New method prevents posterior collapse in generative models.

problem Posterior collapse weakens generative model capacity or requires complex objectives.
method Proposes δδ-VAEs that constrain the posterior variational family to a minimum distance from the prior.
result Achieves state-of-the-art log-likelihood on CIFAR-10 and ImageNet 32x32.

A new criterion selects models in overparameterized settings.

problem Model selection for overparameterized models with more parameters than data.
method Establishes Bayesian duality and introduces the Interpolating Information Criterion.
result The Interpolating Information Criterion selects models in overparameterized settings.

New method for density estimation without approximating posterior distributions.

problem Challenges in non-smooth data distributions for Bayesian density estimation.
method Autoregressive likelihood decomposition and Gaussian process prior in a quasi-Bayesian framework.
result Achieves state-of-the-art results in small-data regimes.

The study uses information theory to set lower bounds on model likelihoods.

problem Improving latent variable models by optimizing priors or likelihoods.
method Applying rate-distortion theory to find lower bounds on negative log likelihood.
result Rate-distortion theory can be used to optimize priors and likelihoods in latent variable models.

Bayesian evidence computation revisited for model selection with improper priors.

problem Model selection with improper priors and their impact on Bayesian evidence computation.
method Employing improper priors in model selection problems, distinguishing between Bayesian evidence and fake evidences.
result Diffuse priors asymptotically to infinity do not recover the area under the likelihood.

DAPS++ improves diffusion-based image restoration by decoupling prior and likelihood.

problem Decoupling prior and likelihood in diffusion-based inverse problems.
method Introducing DAPS++, which fully decouples diffusion-based initialization from likelihood-driven refinement.
result Achieves high computational efficiency and robust reconstruction performance.

Simultaneously estimates travel times and route choice model parameters.

problem Interdependent estimation of arc travel times and route choice model parameters.
method Maximum likelihood estimation for any differentiable route choice model.
result Strong performance in real-world data, even compared to arc travel time estimation methods.

The Gaussian process latent variable model (GP-LVM) is a popular approach to non-linear probabilistic dimensionality reduction. One design choice for the model is the number of latent variables. We present a spike and slab prior for the GP-LVM and propose an efficient variational inference procedure that gives a lower …

2015-05-10abs ↗pdf ↗

The study assesses sensitivity to prior choices in Bayesian nonparametric models.

problem Difficulty in specifying priors for Bayesian nonparametric models.
method Utilizes variational Bayesian methods to assess sensitivity to concentration parameter and stick-breaking distribution.
result Demonstrates how to evaluate sensitivity to prior choices in Dirichlet process mixtures and related models.

DAPS++ improves diffusion-based image restoration by decoupling prior and likelihood.

problem Decoupling prior and likelihood in diffusion-based inverse problems for better performance.
method Introducing DAPS++, which separates diffusion initialization from likelihood refinement.
result DAPS++ achieves high computational efficiency and robust reconstruction performance.

Method recovers complex-valued signals from speckle-noised measurements.

problem Recovering complex-valued signals from speckle-noised measurements.
method Bagged Deep Image Priors integrated with projected gradient descent and Newton-Schulz algorithm.
result Achieves state-of-the-art performance in MSE reduction.

Unified approach to continual learning using Bayesian methods.

problem Challenges in evaluating posterior approximations for continual learning.
method Introduces a new approximate Bayesian derivation of the continual learning loss, adapting the model itself by changing the likelihood term.
result Combines prior- and likelihood-focused methods into one objective, achieving better performance.