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arXiv research

A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.

168,695 papers · 148 categories

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155309464618 · Jun 202019922001200920172026
48 results for principal component prediction

Looped transformers with LN converge to power method for principal component prediction.

problem Understanding how transformers learn algorithmic procedures.
method Study of principal component prediction with looped linear transformers and layer normalization.
result Gradient descent trains looped transformers with LN to implement the power method for principal component prediction.

Improves model predictability by mixing forecasts and orthogonalizing models.

problem Redundant models contaminate model space and degrade predictive performance.
method Principal Component Analysis for model orthogonalization in Bayesian forecast mixing.
result Better prediction accuracy and excellent uncertainty quantification.

The literature provides strong evidence that stock prices can be predicted from past price data. Principal component analysis (PCA) is a widely used mathematical technique for dimensionality reduction and analysis of data by identifying a small number of principal components to explain the variation found in a data set…

2018-03-13abs ↗pdf ↗

CPCR mitigates bias in PCR for overparameterized models.

problem Bias in Principal Component Regression (PCR) for overparameterized models.
method Calibrated Principal Component Regression (CPCR) learns a low-variance prior in the PC subspace and calibrates the model in the original feature space.
result CPCR outperforms standard PCR in overparameterized settings, improving prediction across multiple problems.

The paper uses PCA and HMM to forecast stock returns outperforming buy-and-hold.

problem Predicting stock returns accurately.
method Applied PCA to covariance matrix of S&P 500 stocks, used HMM on principal components, and forecasted stock returns.
result The model outperforms buy-and-hold strategy in terms of annualized Sharpe ratio.

We identify and validate a model for PCR in high dimensions, improving prediction guarantees.

problem Model identification and out-of-sample prediction in high-dimensional error-in-variables settings.
method Analysis of principal component regression (PCR) in fixed design settings, introducing a linear algebraic condition.
result Consistent model identification and improved out-of-sample prediction guarantees.

VC-PCR improves prediction by clustering correlated variables.

problem Decreased prediction accuracy due to cluster structure in predictor variables.
method Supervised variable selection and clustering to integrate cluster information into a sparse modeling process.
result VC-PCR achieves better prediction, variable selection, and clustering performance.

New simulations advise caution in choosing principal components for multivariate functional data.

problem Inaccurate selection of principal components in multivariate functional data.
method Extensive simulations investigating the reliability of percentage of variance explained thresholds.
result Conventional threshold methods may fail to accurately explain overall variance in multivariate functional data.

Principal component regression (PCR) is a two-stage procedure that selects some principal components and then constructs a regression model regarding them as new explanatory variables. Note that the principal components are obtained from only explanatory variables and not considered with the response variable. To addre…

2014-02-26abs ↗pdf ↗

Stochastic principal component analysis (SPCA) has become a popular dimensionality reduction strategy for large, high-dimensional datasets. We derive a simplified algorithm, called Lazy SPCA, which has reduced computational complexity and is better suited for large-scale distributed computation. We prove that SPCA and …

2017-09-21abs ↗pdf ↗

The paper introduces a method for interpretable principal component analysis of high-dimensional time series.

problem Inconsistent and difficult-to-interpret principal component estimates in high-dimensional regimes.
method Localized sparse principal component analysis of spectral density matrices in frequency domain.
result Efficient algorithm for sparse-localized estimates of principal subspaces.

SPPCSO addresses multicollinearity in high-dimensional data, improving model stability and predictive accuracy.

problem Multicollinearity in high-dimensional data leads to unstable estimation and reduced predictive accuracy.
method SPPCSO integrates principal component regression and L1 regularization to adaptively adjust shrinkage factors.
result SPPCSO achieves stable and reliable estimation in high-noise settings, distinguishing signal variables from noise.

Conventional principal component analysis (PCA) finds a principal vector that maximizes the sum of second powers of principal components. We consider a generalized PCA that aims at maximizing the sum of an arbitrary convex function of principal components. We present a gradient ascent algorithm to solve the problem. Fo…

2019-10-29abs ↗pdf ↗

Principal Component Analysis (PCA) is a very successful dimensionality reduction technique, widely used in predictive modeling. A key factor in its widespread use in this domain is the fact that the projection of a dataset onto its first KK principal components minimizes the sum of squared errors between the original …

2017-05-17abs ↗pdf ↗

We show how to efficiently project a vector onto the top principal components of a matrix, without explicitly computing these components. Specifically, we introduce an iterative algorithm that provably computes the projection using few calls to any black-box routine for ridge regression. By avoiding explicit principal …

2016-02-22abs ↗pdf ↗

A new PCR method using SVD with sparse regularization.

problem Lack of response variable information in traditional PCR.
method One-stage SVD approach with two loss functions and sparse regularization.
result Obtains principal component loadings with response variable information.

A new method improves target selection for manipulating complex systems like the brain.

problem Improper incorporation of low-variance outcomes into latent space of predictive models.
method Developed a novel objective based on supervised variational autoencoders (SVAEs) for PPCA (Probabilistic Principal Component Analysis).
result gPCR (Generative Principal Component Regression) dramatically improves target selection in manipulation compared to standard PCR and SVAEs.

Essential principal components simplify spectral analysis with minimal training data.

problem Accurate spectral quantification from complex mixtures.
method Identifying essential principal components and using molar extinction coefficients.
result Near one-to-one projection from principal components to mixture constituents.

Study on reducing dimensionality in high-dimensional regression with kernel methods and stability analysis.

problem Analyzing errors in high-dimensional regression with dimensionality reduction and kernel regression.
method Derive a stability result for kernel regression with Wasserstein distance and apply it to PCA to deduce convergence rates.
result Two-step procedure yields useful convergence rates in semi-supervised settings.

New algorithm balances spatial data approximation and prediction accuracy.

problem Lack of methods considering spatial correlation and downstream modeling in dimension reduction.
method Formalizes approximation and modeling utility as metrics, proposes a balanced algorithm.
result Optimal trade-off between approximation accuracy and downstream modeling utility.

Enhances functional classifier performance with new tree-based methods and unbiased feature importance assessment.

problem Challenges of high-dimensional functional data and biased feature importance assessment.
method Augmented functional classification trees and random forests with ad-hoc conditional permutations for unbiased feature importance.
result Significant enhancement in predictive power of functional classifiers through new feature importance assessment.

Improved fMRI analysis models enhance classification performance and select relevant brain regions.

problem Inaccurate selection of relevant brain components in MVPA models.
method Hybrid Sparsity-Ranked LASSO (JSRL) method integrating component-level and voxel-level activity.
result JSRL models achieve up to 51.7% improvement in cross-validated deviance R2R^2 and 7.3% improvement in cross-validated AUC.

Principal component regression (PCR) is a widely used two-stage procedure: principal component analysis (PCA), followed by regression in which the selected principal components are regarded as new explanatory variables in the model. Note that PCA is based only on the explanatory variables, so the principal components a…

2016-09-28abs ↗pdf ↗

Gradient descent recovers principal components of overparametrized asymmetric matrices without explicit regularization.

problem Asymmetric matrix factorization under overparametrization with minimal rank assumptions.
method Vanilla gradient descent with small random initialization and proper early stopping.
result Gradient descent produces the best low-rank approximation without explicit regularization.

We study least squares linear regression over NN uncorrelated Gaussian features that are selected in order of decreasing variance. When the number of selected features pp is at most the sample size nn, the estimator under consideration coincides with the principal component regression estimator; when p>np>n, the esti…

2019-06-04abs ↗pdf ↗

New supervised and unsupervised NFLTs for elliptical distributions.

problem Understanding unsupervised No Free Lunch Theorems for elliptical distributions.
method Proved two equally optimal strategies for elliptical distributions, inspired PRIM-based bump-hunting algorithms.
result Optimal strategies for selecting principal components based on variance or volume.

This study analyzes prediction risk for PCR method in latent factor regression models.

problem Prediction risk analysis in latent factor regression models.
method Adaptive PCR method with risk bounds established under factor regression model.
result Unified framework for analyzing various linear prediction methods under factor regression.

The computation of the sparse principal component of a matrix is equivalent to the identification of its principal submatrix with the largest maximum eigenvalue. Finding this optimal submatrix is what renders the problem NP{\mathcal{NP}}-hard. In this work, we prove that, if the matrix is positive semidefinite and its …

2013-12-20abs ↗pdf ↗

In the multiple linear regression setting, we propose a general framework, termed weighted orthogonal components regression (WOCR), which encompasses many known methods as special cases, including ridge regression and principal components regression. WOCR makes use of the monotonicity inherent in orthogonal components …

2017-09-13abs ↗pdf ↗

A method predicts posterior PCs for faster uncertainty quantification in imaging.

problem Uncertainty visualization in image restoration models is limited by per-pixel variances.
method Neural Posterior Principal Components (NPPC) method for predicting PCs in a single forward pass.
result Orders of magnitude faster uncertainty quantification compared to posterior samplers.

Study explores K-means clustering of variables and its relation to PCA.

problem Exploring the relationship between K-means clustering of variables and PCA.
method Apply PCA to original data and K-means to transposed data, quantify variable contributions to principal components.
result Identifies how variable clusters contribute to principal components identified by PCA.