A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Model resolves asset pricing puzzles with price-impact.
New distribution resolves excess volatility puzzle in finance.
The paper studies pricing of insurance products focusing on the pricing of annuities under uncertainty. This pricing problem is crucial for financial decision making and was studied intensively, however, many open questions still remain. In particular, there is a so-called "annuity puzzle" related to certain inconsiste…
In this paper we address three main objections of behavioral finance to the theory of rational finance, considered as anomalies the theory of rational finance cannot explain: Predictability of asset returns, The Equity Premium, (The Volatility Puzzle. We offer resolutions of those objections within the rational finance…
Solves equity premium puzzle with time-varying variables.
The study uses equity order flow to forecast stock returns and resolves the liquidity premium puzzle.
The paper explains stock predictability by integrating rational finance without behavioral finance assumptions.
Measuring information value in markets using covariance of price changes and order flow.
Two studies explain high margin loan rates by brokers.
We seek to deepen understanding of the micro-foundations of institutionalization while contributing to a sociological theory of markets by investigating the puzzle of price bubbles in financial markets. We find that such markets, despite textbook conditions of high efficiency -- perfect information, atomistic agents, n…
New puzzles from geometry and topology.
We analyze higher-dimensional sliding puzzles, finding solvability patterns.
Open geometry puzzles keep the author engaged.
We note a simple mechanism that may at least partially resolve several outstanding economic puzzles, including why the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio of the S&P 500 index has been oddly high for the past two decades, why gains to capital have outpaced gains to wages, and the persistence of the equity premi…
The paper extends option pricing theory for markets with informed traders.
In this article we prove the impossibility of some disentanglement puzzles, first building mathematical models that reflect the essential characteristics of these puzzles.
This paper introduces the first deep neural network-based estimation metric for the jigsaw puzzle problem. Given two puzzle piece edges, the neural network predicts whether or not they should be adjacent in the correct assembly of the puzzle, using nothing but the pixels of each piece. The proposed metric exhibits an e…
Optimal benchmark design varies based on costs in financial manipulation.
New model solves equity premium puzzle with risk aversion coefficient.
Modeling financial chaos with market makers' risk appetite.
We introduce Quintessence: a family of burr puzzles based on the geometry and combinatorics of the 120-cell. We discuss the regular polytopes, their symmetries, the dodecahedron as an important special case, the three-sphere, and the quaternions. We then construct the 120-cell, giving an illustrated survey of its geome…
New model solves equity premium puzzle.
In his stimulating article on the reasons for two puzzling observations about the behaviour of interest rates, exchange rates and the rate of inflation, Charles Engel (2016) puts forward an explanation that rests on the concept of a non-pecuniary liquidity return on assets. Albeit intriguing the analysis struggles to a…
According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price,…
Algorithm finds characteristic maps over complex shapes.
The equity risk premium puzzle is that the return on equities has far exceeded the average return on short-term risk-free debt and cannot be explained by conventional representative-agent consumption based equilibrium models. We review a few attempts done over the years to explain this anomaly: 1. Inclusion of highly u…
A repurchase agreement lets investors borrow cash to buy securities. Financier only lends to securities' market value after a haircut and charges interest. Repo pricing is characterized with its puzzling dual pricing measures: repo haircut and repo spread. This article develops a repo haircut model by designing haircut…
Solved Dudeney's 100-year-old puzzle about triangle to square dissection.
The paper explains a geometry puzzle from Plato's Meno.
Globalization is one of the central concepts of our age. The common perception of the process is that, due to declining communication and transport costs, distance becomes less and less important. However, the distance coefficient in the gravity model of trade, which grows in time, indicates that the role of distance i…
The study tackles indirect discrimination in insurance pricing models.
Peters (2011a) defined an optimal leverage which maximizes the time-average growth rate of an investment held at constant leverage. It was hypothesized that this optimal leverage is attracted to 1, such that, e.g., leveraging an investment in the market portfolio cannot yield long-term outperformance. This places a str…
There are no solid arguments to sustain that digital currencies are the future of online payments or the disruptive technology that some of its former participants declared when used to face critiques. This paper aims to solve the cryptocurrency puzzle from a behavioral finance perspective by finding the parallelism be…
Voluntary insurance contracts constitute a puzzle because they increase the expectation value of one party's wealth, whereas both parties must sign for such contracts to exist. Classically, the puzzle is resolved by introducing non-linear utility functions, which encode asymmetric risk preferences; or by assuming the p…
New financial price model using earning yield derived from CIR process.
An edge tessellation is a tiling of the plane generated by reflecting a polygon in its edges. We prove that a polygon generating an edge tessellation is one the following eight types: a rectangle; an equilateral, 60-right, isosceles right, or 120-isosceles triangle; a 120-rhombus; a 60-90-120 kite; or a regular hexagon…
Puzzle Mix optimizes mixup by leveraging saliency and local statistics.
Paper defines conditions for feasible correlation matrices from factor structures.
PHYRE benchmark tests physics learning algorithms.
Archaeologists are in dire need of automated object reconstruction methods. Fragments reassembly is close to puzzle problems, which may be solved by computer vision algorithms. As they are often beaten on most image related tasks by deep learning algorithms, we study a classification method that can solve jigsaw puzzle…
Financial markets provide a natural quantitative lab for understanding some of the most advanced human behaviours. Among them is the use of mathematical tools known as financial instruments. Besides money, the two most fundamental financial instruments are bonds and equities. More than 30 years ago Mehra and Prescott f…
High-speed computerized trading, often called "high-frequency trading" (HFT), has increased dramatically in financial markets over the last decade. In the US and Europe, it now accounts for nearly one-half of all trades. Although evidence suggests that HFT contributes to the efficiency of markets, there are concerns it…
Solves the equity premium puzzle without calibrated values.
In a market with stochastic investment opportunities, we study an optimal consumption investment problem for an agent with recursive utility of Epstein-Zin type. Focusing on the empirically relevant specification where both risk aversion and elasticity of intertemporal substitution are in excess of one, we characterize…
A hybrid scheme uses GAs and DL for tile panel reconstruction.
Generating music medleys is about finding an optimal permutation of a given set of music clips. Toward this goal, we propose a self-supervised learning task, called the music puzzle game, to train neural network models to learn the sequential patterns in music. In essence, such a game requires machines to correctly sor…
Dual labor market model explains low inflation despite low unemployment.
New method makes robust estimators work without knowing corruption levels.