A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
Study upper hedging prices for contingent claims in models with various types of arbitrage.
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differin…
MiFID II impacts European stock liquidity and price formation.
In this paper we study the price dynamics in a simple model of financial markets with heterogeneous agents. We concentrate on how increases in the total number of active traders influences fluctuations of asset prices. We find that a curious route to chaos is observed when the total number of [active traders] increases…
The paper proposes a framework for modeling and analysis of the dynamics of supply, demand, and clearing prices in power system with real-time retail pricing and information asymmetry. Real-time retail pricing is characterized by passing on the real-time wholesale electricity prices to the end consumers, and is shown t…
Margin trading in which investors purchase shares with money borrowed from brokers is blamed to be a major cause of the 2015 Chinese stock market crash. We propose a cascading failure model and examine how an increase in margin trading increases share price vulnerability. The model is based on a bipartite graph of inve…
An increase in energy production from renewable energy sources is viewed as a crucial achievement in most industrialized countries. The higher variability of power production via renewables leads to a rise in ancillary service costs over the power system, in particular costs within the electricity balancing markets, ma…
Study shows increased VRE penetration reduces electricity prices and volatility.
The standard asset pricing models (the CCAPM and the Epstein-Zin non-expected utility model) counterintuitively predict that equilibrium asset prices can rise if the representative agent's risk aversion increases. If the income effect, which implies enhanced saving as a result of an increase in risk aversion, dominates…
Study insurance pricing under correlation ambiguity without increasing prices or reducing utility.
Modeling intraday electricity prices with a Hawkes process.
Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and an imperative to understand their causes. In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that quantitatively agreed with food prices. Specifically, the model fit the FAO Food Price I…
Modeling house prices in Australia reveals supply limitations as the primary driver of extreme trends.
New data improves market impact estimation methods.
We decompose returns for portfolios of bottom-ranked, lower-priced assets relative to the market into rank crossovers and changes in the relative price of those bottom-ranked assets. This decomposition is general and consistent with virtually any asset pricing model. Crossovers measure changes in rank and are smoothly …
This study examines the interaction between CDS and stock indices, revealing significant short and long-term impacts.
High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices. Through the fall, they remained at a threshold above which the riots and revolutions …
Modeling price clustering in financial markets using discrete distributions.
This study improves cryptocurrency price forecasting using time series categorization and deep learning.
The study finds that low frequency macroeconomic variables are more important for short-term electricity price forecasting.
In our empirical study, we examine the price of liquid stocks after experiencing a large intraday price change using data from the NYSE and the NASDAQ. We find significant reversal for both intraday price decreases and increases. The results are stable against varying parameters. While on the NYSE the large widening of…
Singapore's cooling measures did not increase housing wealth overall.
Study shows stock price interactions increase during crises due to external stimulus.
According to the volatility feedback effect, an unexpected increase in squared volatility leads to an immediate decline in the price-dividend ratio. In this paper, we consider the properties of stock price dynamics and option valuations under the volatility feedback effect by modeling the joint dynamics of stock price,…
We study the average price impact of a single trade executed in the NYSE. After appropriate averaging and rescaling, the data for the 1000 most highly capitalized stocks collapse onto a single function, giving average price shift as a function of trade size. This function increases as a power that is the order of 1/2 f…
Trading styles affect long-run variance of asset prices, increasing under trend-following and decreasing under mean-reverting.
Sandbox LAND prices differ based on unit of account, affecting investment returns.
Risk management in financial derivative markets requires inevitably the calculation of the different price sensitivities. The literature contains an abundant amount of research works that have studied the computation of these important values. Most of these works consider the well-known Black and Scholes model where th…
The price of electricity is far more volatile than that of other commodities normally noted for extreme volatility. The possibility of extreme price movements increases the risk of trading in electricity markets. However, underlying the process of price returns is a strong mean-reverting mechanism. We study this featur…
A new model adds stochastic spot/volatility correlation to Heston model for better exotic pricing.
We study convexity and monotonicity properties for prices of bonds and bond options when the short rate is modeled by a diffusion process. We provide conditions under which convexity of the price in the short rate is guaranteed. Under these conditions the price is decreasing in the drift and increasing in the volatilit…
It is a common belief that the behavior of shareholders depends upon the direction of price fluctuations: if prices increase they buy, if prices decrease they sell. That belief, however, is more based on ``common sense'' than on facts. In this paper we present evidence for a specific class of shareholders which shows t…
Game theory models storage investment to balance market competition and profits.
Uniswap V3 struggles with price accuracy during sudden market drops.
We study the dynamics of order flows around large intraday price changes using ultra-high-frequency data from the Shenzhen Stock Exchange. We find a significant reversal of price for both intraday price decreases and increases with a permanent price impact. The volatility, the volume of different types of orders, the b…
SHHK Stock Connect increases A-H share price premium, more for less efficient markets.
Study proposes a new method for better price prediction using machine learning and metaheuristics.
The impact of trades on asset prices is a crucial aspect of market dynamics for academics, regulators and practitioners alike. Recently, universal and highly nonlinear master curves were observed for price impacts aggregated on all intra-day scales [1]. Here we investigate how well these curves, their scaling, and the …
Market inefficiencies persist in DEXes, especially during high volatility.
Study on energy storage's impact on electricity prices and profitability.
We investigate an economic system in which one large agent - the Japan government changes the environment of numerous smaller agents - the Japan agriculture producers by indirect regulation of prices of agriculture goods. The reason for this intervention was that before the oil crisis in 1974 Japan agriculture producti…
We consider the problem of finding a consistent upper price bound for exotic options whose payoff depends on the stock price at two different predetermined time points (e.g. Asian option), given a finite number of observed call prices for these maturities. A model-free approach is used, only taking into account that th…
This paper formulates an utility indifference pricing model for investors trading in a discrete time financial market under non-dominated model uncertainty. The investors preferences are described by strictly increasing concave random functions defined on the positive axis. We prove that under suitable conditions the m…
Regulations impose idiosyncratic capital and funding costs for holding derivatives. Capital requirements are costly because derivatives desks are risky businesses; funding is costly in part because regulations increase the minimum funding tenor. Idiosyncratic costs mean no single measure makes derivatives martingales f…
We report statistical regularities of the opening and closing auctions of French equities, focusing on the diffusive properties of the indicative auction price. Two mechanisms are at play as the auction end time nears: the typical price change magnitude decreases, favoring underdiffusion, while the rate of these events…
Model explains herding and volatility in urban housing prices.
We present a study of price impact in the over-the-counter credit index market, where no limit order book is used. Contracts are traded via dealers, that compete for the orders of clients. Despite this distinct microstructure, we successfully apply the propagator technique to estimate the price impact of individual tra…
In this paper, a rapid and high accurate numerical method for pricing discrete single and double barrier knock-out call options is presented. According to the well-known Black-Scholes framework, the price of option in each monitoring date could be calculate by computing a recursive integral formula upon the heat equati…