Procedure confirms covariate balance anytime from unlabeled data.
problem Ensuring covariate balance in sequential data.
method Time-uniform confidence sequences for continuous monitoring.
result Probability of false confirmation controlled.
On-device research index
arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
168,878 papers · 148 categories
Trend · papers per month
48 results for “prespecified corrections”
Planetary exploration missions with Mars rovers are complicated, which generally require elaborated task planning by human experts, from the path to take to the images to capture. NASA has been using this process to acquire over 22 million images from the planet Mars. In order to improve the degree of automation and th…
Locally private online quantile regression method addresses privacy constraints.
problem Estimating and inferring quantile regression under local differential privacy constraints.
method Developed a finite-alphabet channel where users compute local contributions, apply randomized response, and send reports. A public decoder corrects distortion and reconstructs inputs for averaging.
result Established local privacy, decoder unbiasedness, consistency, asymptotic normality, and inference for scalar contrasts.
The paper develops a method for self-normalized inference in adaptive experiments.
problem Adaptive experiments require a fixed horizon for ATE estimation, but propensities can change.
method The method uses self-normalized martingale limit theory to estimate ATE.
result The Studentized statistic is asymptotically N(0,1) at the prespecified horizon.
Paper adds a restart mechanism to a drawdown control policy for better trading performance.
problem Missed profitable opportunities when drawdown limit is close to reality.
method Integrates a data-driven restart mechanism into the drawdown modulation trading system.
result The restart mechanism improves trading performance even with transaction costs.
CITE algorithm provides anytime-valid certification of model outputs.
problem Challenges in controlling error levels in LLM self-consistency.
method Certification by Intersection-union Testing with E-processes (CITE) algorithm.
result Provable control of false certification at any prescribed level under arbitrary stopping rules.
In many applications, one has side information, e.g., labels that are provided in a semi-supervised manner, about a specific target region of a large data set, and one wants to perform machine learning and data analysis tasks "nearby" that prespecified target region. For example, one might be interested in the clusteri…
We study the pricing and hedging of derivative securities with uncertainty about the volatility of the underlying asset. Rather than taking all models from a prespecified class equally seriously, we penalise less plausible ones based on their "distance" to a reference local volatility model. In the limit for small unce…
New method integrates topological knowledge into data embeddings.
problem Lack of general tools to incorporate prior topological knowledge into embeddings.
method Introduces new topological losses to topologically regularize data embeddings.
result Natural representation of simple models like clusters and flares.
The problem of determining the joint probability distributions for correlated random variables with pre-specified marginals is considered. When the joint distribution satisfying all the required conditions is not unique, the "most unbiased" choice corresponds to the distribution of maximum entropy. The calculation of t…
The paper develops a neural network-based method for detecting change points in large-scale time-evolving data.
problem Detecting and locating change points in multivariate time-evolving data.
method Two-step procedure involving neural network training and test error function calibration over moving windows.
result Consistent estimates for the number and locations of change points under temporal dependence.
PIE-PINN estimates elastic properties from noisy, low-res displacement data.
problem Estimating heterogeneous elastic properties from low-resolution, noisy data.
method Probabilistic Physics-Informed Neural Network (PIE-PINN) framework combining B-spline and hierarchical scale model.
result Robust estimation of Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio from noisy, low-resolution displacement data.
We present an extension of sparse PCA, or sparse dictionary learning, where the sparsity patterns of all dictionary elements are structured and constrained to belong to a prespecified set of shapes. This \emph{structured sparse PCA} is based on a structured regularization recently introduced by [1]. While classical spa…
This note studies the behavior of an index I_t which is assumed to be a tradable security, to satisfy the BSM model dI_t/I_t = μdt + σdW_t, and to be efficient in the following sense: we do not expect a prespecified trading strategy whose value is almost surely always nonnegative to outperform the index greatly. The ef…
Decision trees have been a very popular class of predictive models for decades due to their interpretability and good performance on categorical features. However, they are not always robust and tend to overfit the data. Additionally, if allowed to grow large, they lose interpretability. In this paper, we present a mix…
Efficient algorithm for identifying causal effects in linear models.
problem Determining causal effects from observational data under latent confounding.
method Symbolic computation and efficient algorithm for finding identifying formulas.
result Proves the existence of identifying formulas of a specified degree in quasi-polynomial time.
Efficiently simulates risk budgeting portfolios using novel algorithms.
problem Estimating risk contributions in portfolios efficiently.
method Cutting planes algorithm, specialised SGD for Expected Shortfall, numerical simulations.
result Outperforms standard convex optimisation solvers in estimating risk budgeting portfolios.
This handbook translates lead time analysis into R code.
problem Tracking divergence in booking lead times over time.
method Translated original article's methodology into R code.
result Demonstrated reproducibility and error bounds in lead time forecasts.
We consider a financial market in which two securities are traded: a stock and an index. Their prices are assumed to satisfy the Black-Scholes model. Besides assuming that the index is a tradable security, we also assume that it is efficient, in the following sense: we do not expect a prespecified self-financing tradin…
We introduce a regularization approach to arbitrage-free factor-model selection. The considered model selection problem seeks to learn the closest arbitrage-free HJM-type model to any prespecified factor-model. An asymptotic solution to this, a priori computationally intractable, problem is represented as the limit of …
Dynamic Weight Optimization for Double Linear Policy: A Stochastic Model Predictive Control Approacheess.SY
A new approach optimizes weights in DLP for better risk-adjusted performance.
problem Optimizing time-varying weights in Double Linear Policy (DLP) for better risk-adjusted performance.
method Stochastic Model Predictive Control (SMPC) framework to maximize risk-adjusted returns while enforcing constraints.
result Empirical results show improved risk-adjusted performance and drawdown control.
Transforms any test into anytime-valid with sample savings.
problem Sequential data invalidates classical test guarantees.
method Predicts test outcomes to create anytime-valid stopping rules.
result Ensures Type-I error control and near-optimal power.
Develops methods to identify and estimate causal effects with instrumental variables.
problem Causal inference with confounded treatment assignment and unobserved variables.
method General nonparametric causal framework, debiased machine learning, semiparametric theory.
result Consistent and asymptotically normal estimators for average treatment effect.
It is well documented that a model for the underlying asset price process that seeks to capture the behaviour of the market prices of vanilla options needs to exhibit both diffusion and jump features. In this paper we assume that the asset price process is Markov with cadlag paths and propose a scheme for computing…
The paper improves methods for estimating set size using samples.
problem Estimating the size of a set from a uniform sample.
method Refines estimators using the birthday problem and maximum of sample.
result Develops a general theory for non-asymptotic error bounds.
Semi-supervised clustering is the task of clustering data points into clusters where only a fraction of the points are labelled. The true number of clusters in the data is often unknown and most models require this parameter as an input. Dirichlet process mixture models are appealing as they can infer the number of clu…
Transformer pretraining yields strong EB performance without explicit adaptation.
problem Empirical Bayes problems with unknown test distributions.
method Indirect analysis of pretrained transformer's performance under universal priors.
result Near-optimal regret bound of for arbitrary test distributions.
Non-intrusive algorithm corrects corrupted data in classification models.
problem Classification problems with corrupted training data.
method Post-processes a trained classification model with a correction procedure.
result Corrected models deliver correct classification results even with corrupted data.
New GMM models fit high-dimensional data with fewer parameters.
problem Overparameterization and lack of flexibility in GMMs for high-dimensional data.
method Piecewise-constant covariance eigenvalue profiles, EM and penalized EM algorithms.
result Superior likelihood-parsimony tradeoffs in density fitting, clustering, and denoising.
We present KERMIT, a simple insertion-based approach to generative modeling for sequences and sequence pairs. KERMIT models the joint distribution and its decompositions (i.e., marginals and conditionals) using a single neural network and, unlike much prior work, does not rely on a prespecified factorization of the dat…
New framework calibrates decision robustness using inverse conformal risk control.
problem Inadequate robustness levels in decision-making due to ad hoc choices.
method Constructs valid estimators to trace miscoverage-regret Pareto frontier.
result Provides distribution-free, finite-sample guarantees on robustness levels.
A new model of learning corrects for chance to improve learning outcomes.
problem The importance of chance-corrected measures in learning.
method Developed two models: Informatron and AdaBook, based on empirical psychological results.
result Chance correction facilitates learning, as shown by computational results.
New method estimates spatial weights matrix for lattice data, improving prediction accuracy.
problem Estimating spatial dependence structure for regular lattice data.
method Adaptive lasso with cross-sectional resampling to estimate sparse spatial weights matrix.
result Improves prediction accuracy of nitrogen dioxide concentrations.
Mathematical study of instanton corrected q-map spaces and their isometries.
problem Understanding the isometries of instanton corrected q-map spaces.
method Study of isometries of instanton corrected q-map spaces associated to PSR manifolds.
result Explicit example of instanton corrected q-map space with full SL(2,Z) acting by isometries.
A new algorithm speeds up rerandomization for better experiment balance.
problem Achieving optimal covariate balance in randomized experiments.
method Metropolis-Hastings framework with sampling-importance resampling.
result PSRSRR achieves significant speedups while maintaining statistical guarantees.
Corrected misstatements about invariant rank in ECS manifold papers.
problem Misstated invariant rank (d=1 instead of d=2) in several papers on ECS manifolds.
method Identified the class of examples with d=1, explained why d=2, and listed corrections.
result Corrected papers to accurately state d=2 for ECS manifolds.
New method combines machine learning with data assimilation for model error correction.
problem Correcting model errors using sparse and noisy observations.
method Hybrid machine learning and data assimilation methods.
result Tendency correction outperforms resolvent correction in data assimilation experiments.
LoMC: Localized Multidirectional Correction for Refusal Suppression in Routed Foundation Modelsstat.ML
Localized Multidirectional Correction improves non-refusal target-response behavior in foundation models.
problem Controlled post-training refusal suppression in routed MoE and hybrid-MoE foundation models.
method Introduce Localized Multidirectional Correction (LoMC), a support-gated intervention framework.
result Substantially improves non-refusal target-response behavior while maintaining general capability under a compact intervention footprint.
Theoretical analysis shows LLMs can self-correct responses through in-context learning.
problem Understanding how large language models improve through self-correction.
method Theoretical analysis based on simplified alignment task, focusing on softmax attention, multi-head attention, and MLP blocks.
result LLMs can refine responses in an in-context way when given accurate self-examinations as rewards.
New algorithms improve boosting by optimizing chance-corrected measures.
problem Improving boosting algorithms to use chance-corrected measures effectively.
method Developed new algorithms (AdaBook and Multibook) that optimize chance-corrected measures.
result AdaBook and Multibook outperform standard Multiboost or AdaBoost in multiclass situations.
Study examines corrections to heterotic geometry on SU(3) manifolds.
problem Analyzing corrections to heterotic supersymmetry algebra.
method Derives integrability condition and pure gauge correction from graviton equation of motion.
result Curvature of tangent bundle connection acquires a (0,2) component, disrupting semi-classical intuition.
A model corrects Lithuanian grammatical errors.
problem Lack of language skills and typing errors in Lithuanian.
method Transformer architectures for subword and byte-level approaches.
result F=0.92 for Lithuanian grammatical error correction.
Expectation Propagation (EP) provides a framework for approximate inference. When the model under consideration is over a latent Gaussian field, with the approximation being Gaussian, we show how these approximations can systematically be corrected. A perturbative expansion is made of the exact but intractable correcti…
MaxEnt Model Correction improves reinforcement learning model accuracy.
problem Improving reinforcement learning model accuracy and convergence.
method MaxEnt Model Correction (MoCo) procedure to correct model's next-state distributions.
result MoCoVI and MoCoDyna algorithms converge faster and effectively use approximate models.
We derive a closed formula for the Heegaard Floer correction terms of lens spaces in terms of the classical Dedekind sum and its generalization, the Dedekind-Rademacher sum. Our proof relies on a reciprocity formula for the correction terms established by Ozsvath and Szabo. A consequence of our result is that the Casso…
New methods correct spectral distortions using known analyte concentrations.
problem Distorted spectral shapes from absorbing and scattering contributions.
method Modified penalized baseline correction methods that incorporate known analyte concentrations.
result Improved prediction performance on near infra-red data sets.
The paper proposes a new method for comparing logistic regression models across different populations.
problem Comparing logistic regression models across sub-populations can lead to misleading results.
method Develops a cascading set of equivalence tests for logistic regression models, addressing coding, predictions, and overall accuracy.
result Equivalence testing incentivizes accurate inference and avoids perverse incentives from significance tests.
Paper proposes a new meta-learning approach for correcting noisy labels.
problem Learning with noisy labels in machine learning models.
method Meta-learned instance re-weighting approach extended to label correction problem.
result Proposed MLC (Meta Label Correction) framework achieves large improvements over previous methods.