New model solves equity premium puzzle.
problem Equity premium puzzle regarding risk behavior of investors.
method Developed a new tool called the sufficiency factor to analyze risk behavior of investors.
result Validated the new model with a coefficient of relative risk aversion of 1.033526.
The equity risk premium is derived from SPX option chains using a model-light approach.
problem Estimating the equity risk premium from option data.
method Model-light approach using Gaussian mixture models and exponential tilting.
result The equity risk premium is calculated from the real-world probability densities inferred from option quotes.
Endogenous reinsurance pricing in large insurance markets
problem Endogenous reinsurance pricing in large insurance markets
method Stackelberg leader and insurer equilibrium analysis
result Characterization of insurers' equilibrium retention and Stackelberg equilibria
New model solves equity premium puzzle with risk aversion coefficient.
problem Equity premium puzzle in financial markets.
method Developed a new model incorporating investor risk behavior, tested with specific coefficients.
result Validated model with empirical studies, confirming coefficient of 1.033526.
The risk premium is one of main concepts in mathematical finance. It is a measure of the trade-offs investors make between return and risk and is defined by the excess return relative to the risk-free interest rate that is earned from an asset per one unit of risk. The purpose of this article is to determine upper and …
In a market with one safe and one risky asset, an investor with a long horizon, constant investment opportunities, and constant relative risk aversion trades with small proportional transaction costs. We derive explicit formulas for the optimal investment policy, its implied welfare, liquidity premium, and trading volu…
We decompose the squared price-of-risk premium into three components: intervention-stable premium, confounding wedge, and information loss.
problem Decomposing the squared price-of-risk premium into its components
method Identifying an order-three obstruction to aggregation across portfolios
result The decomposition is estimable and detectable with a permutation-calibrated screen
Financial markets provide a natural quantitative lab for understanding some of the most advanced human behaviours. Among them is the use of mathematical tools known as financial instruments. Besides money, the two most fundamental financial instruments are bonds and equities. More than 30 years ago Mehra and Prescott f…
Solves equity premium puzzle with time-varying variables.
problem Equity premium puzzle.
method Consumption Capital Asset Pricing Model with time-varying subjective time discount factors.
result Calculated coefficient of relative risk aversion (CRRA) is around 4.40.
Solves the equity premium puzzle without calibrated values.
problem Equity premium puzzle in finance.
method Derived new model from 4 different equations, found subjective time discount factor and coefficient of relative risk aversion.
result Calculated values and risk attitude determination align with empirical literature.
The paper introduces bonus-malus systems with varying deductibles for different claim types and policyholder levels.
problem Designing bonus-malus systems with varying deductibles for policyholders of different claim types.
method Introducing bonus-malus systems with varying deductibles for policyholders in different levels and claim types, investigating restrictions and allocation principles.
result Possible introduction of varying deductibles for policyholders in the highest bonus-malus level, considering two allocation principles.
The paper proposes a new SDF scaled by time-varying volatility from S&P 500 options.
problem Estimating the SDF from option prices and predicting the equity premium.
method Utilizes S&P 500 options data to recover a stable, non-monotonic SDF.
result The SDF exhibits a hump on the put side, which transitions into a W-shape with maturity.
Study finds stocks with common firm fears earn lower returns.
problem Identifying and quantifying firm-level investor fears.
method Analysis of equity options to identify common firm-level fears and their impact on stock returns.
result Stocks with exposure to common bad fears earn lower returns and require higher compensation.
The study reveals unspanned risks in equity option risk premiums, explaining negative premiums for certain options.
problem Explaining negative risk premiums for certain equity option types.
method Developed a decomposition of equity option risk premiums, operationalized the pricing kernel process, and incorporated unspanned risks.
result Empirical evidence supports the presence of unspanned risks, explaining negative risk premiums for certain options.
The paper is motivated by a problem concerning the monotonicity of insurance premiums with respect to their loading parameter: the larger the parameter, the larger the insurance premium is expected to be. This property, usually called loading monotonicity, is satisfied by premiums that appear in the literature. The inc…
Examines US equity risk premiums amid COVID-19.
problem Analyzing equity risk premiums during the pandemic.
method Not specified in the abstract.
result Not specified in the abstract.
A new insurance and reinsurance pricing scheme based on realized loss.
problem Determining fair and risk-adjusted insurance premiums.
method Performance-based variable premium scheme with random initial premium adjusted based on realized loss.
result The variable premium scheme reduces reinsurer's total risk exposure compared to expected-value premium.
The net-premium principle is considered to be the most genuine and fair premium principle in actuarial applications. However, an insurance company, applying the net-premium principle, goes bankrupt with probability one in the long run, even if the company covers its entire costs by collecting the respective fees from i…
A new method calculates risk loadings in classification ratemaking without subjective parameters.
problem Subjective risk loading parameters in classification ratemaking.
method Bootstrap method to calculate total risk premium, then determine risk loading parameters using quantile regression models.
result Risk premiums calculated by the new method reasonably differentiate different risk classes.
A new method to break down insurance costs into risk and uncertainty.
problem Understanding and quantifying insurance costs in uncertain environments.
method An axiomatic approach to decompose premium principles into risk and deviation measures.
result Maximal risk and minimal deviation measures can be uniquely identified in decompositions.
This paper studies the stochastic modeling of market drawdown events and the fair valuation of insurance contracts based on drawdowns. We model the asset drawdown process as the current relative distance from the historical maximum of the asset value. We first consider a vanilla insurance contract whereby the protectio…
We present in this paper a new premium computation principle based on the use of prior information from multiple sources for computing the premium charged to a policyholder. Under this framework, based on the use of Ordered Weighted Averaging (OWA) operators, we propose alternative collective and Bayes premiums and des…
Examines three methods to estimate equity risk premium.
problem Estimating the equity risk premium in finance.
method Survey-based, historical stock premia, and Implied Equity Risk Premium.
result Shows results of estimating ERP using Implied Equity Risk Premium method.
We determine the optimal amount of life insurance for a household of two wage earners. We consider the simple case of exponential utility, thereby removing wealth as a factor in buying life insurance, while retaining the relationship among life insurance, income, and the probability of dying and thus losing that income…
A new model for heterogeneous populations optimizes consumption and investment over short horizons.
problem Optimizing consumption and investment in economies with a heterogeneous population over short time periods.
method Continuous-time general equilibrium framework with Brownian flow on a type space, solving vanishing-horizon problems under relative-income criteria.
result Existence and characterization of short-horizon Duesenberry equilibrium, with sharp asset-pricing implications.
We consider the concept of equilibrium in economic systems from statistical mechanics viewpoint. A new method is suggested for computing the premium on this basis. The Bühlmann economic premium principle is derived as a special case of our method.
Proposes a fix for IRS calculation of Obamacare tax credits.
problem IRS iteration leads to divergent sequences for some self-employed taxpayers.
method Introduces a bisection procedure to calculate premium tax credits.
result Bisection procedure works for simple tax returns and those receiving credits in advance.
Derives a size premium from automated market makers in decentralized AI subnets.
problem Determining the profitability and risk of decentralized AI subnets.
method Analyzes daily data on 128 subnets, tests the size premium, and calculates transaction costs.
result The size premium is reduced by a halving of token emissions but remains profitable only below a certain asset threshold.
Introduces an unobservable intrinsic electricity price to link storage theory with risk premium.
problem Connecting storage theory with risk premium in electricity markets.
method Introduces an unobservable intrinsic electricity price and derives prices for various contracts.
result Finds an overall negative risk premium in empirical analysis.
We investigate, focusing on the ruin probability, an adaptation of the Cramer-Lundberg model for the surplus process of an insurance company, in which, conditionally on their intensities, the two mixed Poisson processes governing the arrival times of the premiums and of the claims respectively, are independent. Such a …
SPAC data shows premium investors get better terms, non-premium get quid pro quo deals.
problem Agency problems and informational frictions in securities issuance.
method Analysis of SPAC data to identify premium and non-premium investors.
result Non-premium investors engage in quid pro quo relationships with issuers and intermediaries.
We present an analytical study of an insurance company. We model the company's performance on a statistical basis and evaluate the predicted annual income of the company in terms of insurance parameters namely the premium, total number of the insured, average loss claims etc. We restrict ourselves to a single insurance…
Analyzes premium data of Indian non-life insurers, finding GEV distribution best fits Lognormal and GEV extremes.
problem Modeling premiums of non-life insurance companies in India.
method Empirical analysis using Lognormal, GEV, and GPD distributions.
result Generalized Extreme Value distribution best fits premium data for ten Indian non-life insurers.
Paper finds significant impact of stock market swings on equity risk premium predictability.
problem Predicting equity risk premium based on stock market behavior changes.
method Introduced Bullish Index and used FDMAA for returns analysis; considered 28 indicators.
result Positive shocks in Bullish Index correlate with strong equity risk premium predictability for up to six months, while negative shocks correlate for up to nine months.
We formulate and analyze an inverse problem using derivatives prices to obtain an implied filtering density on volatility's hidden state. Stochastic volatility is the unobserved state in a hidden Markov model (HMM) and can be tracked using Bayesian filtering. However, derivative data can be considered as conditional ex…
The study finds no evidence of stochastic arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
problem Identifying arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
method Developed linear and mixed-integer linear programs to compute the maximum option premium.
result No evidence of systematic stochastic arbitrage opportunities in S&P 500 index options.
Model shows IRS procedure for health insurance tax credits can diverge, proposing a new bisection method.
problem IRS procedure for calculating health insurance tax credits diverges for some self-employed taxpayers.
method Proposed a bisection procedure to calculate appropriate premium tax credits for tax returns.
result The bisection procedure can calculate appropriate premium tax credits for a model of simple tax returns.
The aim of this contribution is to derive a general matrix formula for the net period premium paid in more than one state. For this purpose we propose to combine actuarial technics with the graph optimization methodology. The obtained result is useful for example to more advanced models of dread disease insurances allo…
Limited liability creates a conflict of interests between policyholders and shareholders of insurance companies. It provides shareholders with incentives to increase the risk of the insurer's assets and liabilities which, in turn, might reduce the value policyholders attach to and premiums they are willing to pay for i…
Study finds carbon emissions affect stock value, but not bought emissions.
problem Determining if carbon emissions impact stock value and whether this is due to direct or indirect emissions.
method Fixed-effects analysis with propensity score weighting to control for selection bias.
result Firms with higher Scope 1 emissions have a statistically significant positive carbon premium, but Scope 2 emissions do not.
Fair reinsurance premiums calculated for a perturbed risk model with capital injections.
problem Determining fair reinsurance premiums in a perturbed risk model with capital injections.
method Using a subordinator and Brownian perturbation, an explicit formula for reinsurance premiums is derived.
result An explicit formula for fair reinsurance premiums exists in a specific risk model setting.
Optimal insurance strategy for maximizing RDEU under various premium principles.
problem Maximizing a risk-averse individual's RDEU with insurance priced by a distortion-deviation principle.
method Proved necessary and sufficient conditions for the optimal solution, considered ambiguity orders, and analyzed specific examples.
result Conditions for no insurance or deductible insurance to be optimal.
Investment strategy without fixed horizon in ambiguous market conditions.
problem Dynamic portfolio choice in an ambiguous market.
method Formulated as a robust forward performance process reflecting dynamic investor preference.
result Market risk premium and utility risk premium determine trading direction and worst-case scenarios.
The paper models exchange rate risk premium using mean-reverting dynamics.
problem Empirical failure of uncovered interest parity (UIP).
method Modeling risk premium using Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process embedded in stochastic differential equation for exchange rate.
result The model shows strong predictive performance at short and long horizons, but underperforms at intermediate horizons.
In this paper, we consider the problem of optimal reinsurance design, when the risk is measured by a distortion risk measure and the premium is given by a distortion risk premium. First, we show how the optimal reinsurance design for the ceding company, the reinsurance company and the social planner can be formulated i…
ML helps select variables for minimum-variance portfolios, reducing risk and improving performance.
problem Optimizing minimum-variance portfolios with relevant predictors.
method Parameterized minimum-variance portfolio weights using a large pool of firm-level characteristics and their transformations.
result ML-selected predictors lead to lower risk and better performance in minimum-variance portfolios.
Study optimal reinsurance contracts to prevent moral hazard under non-concave premium principles.
problem Preventing moral hazard in reinsurance contracts under non-concave premium principles.
method Develops optimal reinsurance contracts under a diffusion risk model with incentive compatibility constraints and extended distortion premium principles.
result An optimal reinsurance contract exists and is characterized by solving a double obstacle problem.
New concept of attitude towards probability introduced in risk sharing problems.
problem Risk sharing problems and attitudes towards probability.
method Generalized definition of probability premium, local approximation, rank-dependent utility model, dual theory.
result Attitude towards probability can be first-order or second-order, depending on the model.