The article compares predictor importance in classification problems with categorical outcomes.
problem Comparing predictor importance in classification problems with categorical response variables.
method The approach is based on the categorical Gini correlation (CGC) and tests differences in CGCs across predictor groups.
result The proposed methodology accommodates predictors of arbitrary and unequal dimensions and allows for dependence between predictor groups.
Paper proposes a sparse synthetic control method to select important predictors.
problem Choosing and weighting predictors affects synthetic control estimator performance.
method Sparse synthetic control procedure that penalizes predictors, derived in a linear factor model.
result Sparse synthetic control achieves lower bias and better post-treatment performance.
Efficient oblique RSF method improves prediction and interpretability.
problem Limited computational efficiency and difficulty in interpreting oblique RSF ensembles.
method Newton-Raphson scoring for computational efficiency and negation importance for variable importance estimation.
result The method reduces computational overhead by 450 times and improves prediction accuracy.
Paper introduces new importance metrics for machine learning models, linking them to CATE.
problem Interpreting black-box models' importance metrics due to data dependence and non-parametric nature.
method Introduces MVIM and CVIM, proposing permutation-based estimation and bias-variance decomposition.
result MVIM and CVIM have a quadratic relationship with CATE, addressing bias in correlated predictors.
Defines a new metric to measure importance of predictors in complex machine learning models.
problem Measuring importance of predictors in black box machine learning models.
method Introduces a new metric, GVIM, based on true conditional expectation functions and causal interpretation.
result The GVIM can be represented as a function of Conditional Average Treatment Effect (CATE), providing a causal interpretation.
We introduce a variable importance measure to quantify the impact of individual input variables to a black box function. Our measure is based on the Shapley value from cooperative game theory. Many measures of variable importance operate by changing some predictor values with others held fixed, potentially creating unl…
DynForest R package predicts outcomes with time-dependent predictors.
problem Handling time-dependent predictors in random forest models.
method Random forests with time-dependent predictors summarized using flexible linear mixed models.
result DynForest can predict continuous, categorical, and survival outcomes.
In the era of "big data", it is becoming more of a challenge to not only build state-of-the-art predictive models, but also gain an understanding of what's really going on in the data. For example, it is often of interest to know which, if any, of the predictors in a fitted model are relatively influential on the predi…
Improves transfer learning by weighting importance based on test-over-training density.
problem Distribution shift in training and test data.
method Joint and dynamic importance-predictor estimation, causal mechanism transfer.
result Enhanced transfer learning performance in complex, high-dimensional tasks.
RI-based variable ranking and selection outperforms lasso in high-dimensional datasets.
problem Challenges in variable selection and model creation with correlated predictors.
method RI measures for feature ranking and selection, including CRI.Z.
result RI-based methods outperform lasso in high-dimensional datasets, especially with correlated predictors.
We consider selection of random predictors for high-dimensional regression problem with binary response for a general loss function. Important special case is when the binary model is semiparametric and the response function is misspecified under parametric model fit. Selection for such a scenario aims at recovering th…
In this work, we study the problem of aggregating a finite number of predictors for nonstationary sub-linear processes. We provide oracle inequalities relying essentially on three ingredients: (1) a uniform bound of the ℓ1 norm of the time varying sub-linear coefficients, (2) a Lipschitz assumption on the predict…
Study uses deep learning to predict mycotoxin levels in Irish oats.
problem Predicting mycotoxin contamination in Irish oats to improve crop quality and safety.
method Investigated neural networks and transfer learning models for multi-response prediction.
result Transfer learning model TabPFN provided the best performance.
Group model selection is the problem of determining a small subset of groups of predictors (e.g., the expression data of genes) that are responsible for majority of the variation in a response variable (e.g., the malignancy of a tumor). This paper focuses on group model selection in high-dimensional linear models, in w…
Researchers predict butt rot volume using harvester data and remote sensing.
problem Predicting butt rot volume in Norway spruce stands for optimal forest management.
method Used random forest models with harvester information, remote sensing, and environmental data.
result Remotely sensed predictor variables were more important than environmental variables.
Global Sensitivity Analysis improves feature importance ranking in Random Forests.
problem Improving feature importance ranking in Random Forests.
method Applying Global Sensitivity Analysis to Random Forests for feature ranking.
result Our method provides a novel way to rank features based on their importance.
Technology and collaboration enable dramatic increases in the size of psychological and psychiatric data collections, but finding structure in these large data sets with many collected variables is challenging. Decision tree ensembles like random forests (Strobl, Malley, and Tutz, 2009) are a useful tool for finding st…
Study examines challenges in variable importance ranking due to feature correlation.
problem Challenges in variable importance ranking under correlation.
method Simulation study and theoretical analysis of feature knockoffs and conditional predictive impact (CPI).
result Highly correlated features increase the correlation of knockoff variables, posing a limitation for CPI.
This paper discusses a counterpart of conformal prediction for e-values, conformal e-prediction. Conformal e-prediction is conceptually simpler and had been developed in the 1990s as a precursor of conformal prediction. When conformal prediction emerged as result of replacing e-values by p-values, it seemed to have imp…
New method converts LVAs into linear projections for better understanding of complex models.
problem Limited interpretability of nonlinear machine learning models.
method Animated linear projections and radial tours.
result Improved understanding of variable importance in complex models.
DynForest predicts event probabilities from longitudinal data, handling endogenous predictors.
problem Predicting individual risk using longitudinal patient history.
method Random survival forests with time-fixed features from longitudinal predictors.
result DynForest provides accurate individual event probability predictions.
We consider new formulations and methods for sparse quantile regression in the high-dimensional setting. Quantile regression plays an important role in many applications, including outlier-robust exploratory analysis in gene selection. In addition, the sparsity consideration in quantile regression enables the explorati…
Detection of protein-protein interactions (PPIs) plays a vital role in molecular biology. Particularly, infections are caused by the interactions of host and pathogen proteins. It is important to identify host-pathogen interactions (HPIs) to discover new drugs to counter infectious diseases. Conventional wet lab PPI pr…
Predict accuracy of neural architectures using non-neural models.
problem Improving efficiency and effectiveness of neural architecture search.
method Used gradient boosting decision tree (GBDT) for accuracy prediction and pruned the search space based on features learned from GBDT.
result GBDT-based predictor achieves comparable or better accuracy than neural network-based predictors and is 22x more sample efficient on NASBench-101.
We analyze the local Rademacher complexity of empirical risk minimization (ERM)-based multi-label learning algorithms, and in doing so propose a new algorithm for multi-label learning. Rather than using the trace norm to regularize the multi-label predictor, we instead minimize the tail sum of the singular values of th…
DFNNs predict non-Euclidean responses from Euclidean predictors.
problem Regression with non-Euclidean responses.
method Deep Fréchet neural networks (DFNNs) approximating conditional Fréchet means.
result DFNNs consistently outperform existing methods in empirical studies.
Study uses machine learning and survival analysis to predict CKD progression.
problem Early detection and management of CKD to reduce ESRD risk.
method Combines machine learning and classical statistical models to identify novel CKD progression predictors.
result Deep learning models outperform other methods in predicting CKD progression.
Despite their ability to memorize large datasets, deep neural networks often achieve good generalization performance. However, the differences between the learned solutions of networks which generalize and those which do not remain unclear. Additionally, the tuning properties of single directions (defined as the activa…
A novel feature selection method using noise-based hypothesis testing improves feature selection accuracy.
problem Challenges in feature selection for complex, high-dimensional datasets.
method Introduces multiple random noise features and evaluates feature importance against noise feature maxima using non-parametric bootstrap-based hypothesis testing.
result Outperforms existing methods in simulated and real-world datasets.
We give examples of data-generating models under which Breiman's random forest may be extremely slow to converge to the optimal predictor or even fail to be consistent. The evidence provided for these properties is based on mostly intuitive arguments, similar to those used earlier with simpler examples, and on numerica…
CDPs visualize causal dependencies in AI models.
problem Understanding how AI models depend on data inputs causally.
method Developed Causal Dependence Plots (CDPs) to visualize causal dependencies.
result CDPs show causal changes in predictors and outcomes.
Optical Wireless Communication (OWC) propagation channel characterization plays a key role on the design and performance analysis of Vehicular Visible Light Communication (VVLC) systems. Current OWC channel models based on deterministic and stochastic methods, fail to address mobility induced ambient light, optical tur…
New method learns to encode predictions within interpretations, improving evaluation.
problem Need for interpretable machine learning, but existing methods are slow or lack fidelity.
method Amortized explanation methods that learn a global selector model optimizing fidelity of interpretations.
result Predictions can be encoded within interpretations, detected by EVAL-X.
Flexible framework for bounding high-loss predictions using quantiles.
problem Need for rigorous guarantees in risk-sensitive applications.
method Order statistics of loss values, flexible quantile-based metrics.
result Ability to rigorously control loss quantiles on real-world datasets.
Unified multitask learning framework for mixed-type outcomes.
problem Difficulty in formulating a unified objective for tasks with different outcomes.
method Multitask transformation framework with shared sparsity, using deep neural networks and rank-based optimization.
result Improved prediction and variable selection across continuous, binary, and mixed outcomes.
Study identifies key trades predicting market movements.
problem Predicting future market price movements.
method Optimized neural network predictor to identify influential trades.
result Trades with specific characteristics significantly impact future price predictions.
Proposes using prior variable importance information in high-dimensional regression.
problem Using vague prior information on variable importance in high-dimensional settings.
method Fit a sequence of models indicated by the prior importance orderings, using ridge or Lasso regression.
result Cross-validation can select the best estimator from a sequence of models, with a logarithmic cost compared to the unknown best.
For nonlinear supervised learning models, assessing the importance of predictor variables or their interactions is not straightforward because it can vary in the domain of the variables. Importance can be assessed locally with sensitivity analysis using general methods that rely on the model's predictions or their deri…
New method minimizes regret in AMDP with high probability.
problem Pessimistic regret analysis in AMDP.
method Developed a new policy search method achieving optimistic regret.
result Achieved sublinear optimistic regret with high probability.
Electronic health records are an increasingly important resource for understanding the interactions between patient health, environment, and clinical decisions. In this paper we report an empirical study of predictive modeling of several patient outcomes using three state-of-the-art machine learning methods. Our primar…
Learning linear predictors with the logistic loss---both in stochastic and online settings---is a fundamental task in machine learning and statistics, with direct connections to classification and boosting. Existing "fast rates" for this setting exhibit exponential dependence on the predictor norm, and Hazan et al. (20…
Forecast dam inflow using sea surface feature weights.
problem Accurate dam inflow forecasting for flood mitigation.
method Extracted sea surface features, applied L2-norm ensemble weighting, used PCA and t-SNE for dimensionality reduction, and calibrated regression models.
result The proposed method improves predictor stability and accuracy in dam inflow forecasting.
New method corrects correlation bias in feature importance.
problem Correlations between features in high-dimensional data bias statistical and machine learning models.
method Pairwise Permutation Algorithm (PPA)
result PPA corrects correlation bias, identifying biological relevant biomarkers.
NA0CT2 improves tensor regression predictions with ℓ0 regularization.
problem Improving tensor regression predictions with structural information.
method Noise-Augmented ℓ0 regularization on Tucker decomposition. result Achieves exact ℓ0 regularization on core tensor in linear and generalized linear tensor regression. As data collections become larger, exploratory regression analysis becomes more important but more challenging. When observations are hierarchically clustered the problem is even more challenging because model selection with mixed effect models can produce misleading results when nonlinear effects are not included into…
This paper tackles continuous covariate shift by adaptively training predictors.
problem Continuous covariate shift where input distributions change over time.
method Online density ratio estimation method to adaptively train predictors.
result Excess risk guarantee for the predictor through dynamic regret bound.
Method improves treatment effect prediction robust to unknown covariate shifts.
problem Estimating heterogeneous treatment effects for different populations.
method Post-processing CATE T-learners with multi-accurate predictors to handle unknown covariate shifts.
result Improves bias and mean squared error in simulations with covariate shifts.
New method for tensor classification with missing data.
problem Handling incomplete tensor data in high-dimensional classification.
method High-dimensional tensor linear discriminant analysis with TGMM and Tensor LDA-MD.
result Established convergence rates and minimax optimal bounds for misclassification rate.