Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments …
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arXiv research
A locally-built, LLM-digested index of recent arXiv papers in quant finance, geometry/topology, and statistical ML — keyword search served straight from SQLite on this machine.
169,051 papers · 148 categories
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48 results for “predictive stability”
Boosting framework for vector-valued prediction with geometric stability.
problem Lack of a general theoretical understanding of aggregation for structured prediction.
method Identifies -stability property and proposes a boosting framework based on exponential reweighting and geometric-median aggregation.
result Obtains exponential decay of empirical divergence error under weak learner condition and -stability.
Proposes a new stability measure for model fitting on similar feature data sets.
problem Model fitting on data sets with similar features is challenging.
method Tuning hyperparameters in a multi-criteria fashion with predictive accuracy and feature selection stability.
result Our approach achieves similar or better predictive performance than single-criteria and stability selection approaches.
Paper improves zero-shot protein stability prediction by clarifying free-energy foundations.
problem Improving zero-shot protein stability prediction using inverse folding models.
method Clarifying the free-energy foundations of inverse folding models and proposing better estimates of relative stability.
result Significant gains in zero-shot performance can be achieved with simple methods.
LOO-StabCP speeds up CP for multiple predictions.
problem Balancing computational efficiency and prediction accuracy in CP.
method Leave-One-Out Stable Conformal Prediction (LOO-StabCP) using algorithmic stability.
result LOO-StabCP is faster and more accurate than RO-StabCP.
Advanced Risk Prediction and Stability Assessment of Banks Using Time Series Transformer Modelsq-fin.RM
Paper uses Time Series Transformer for bank stability prediction.
problem Predicting bank stability using complex financial data.
method Time Series Transformer model with self-attention mechanism.
result Time Series Transformer model outperforms other models in MSE and MAE.
Proteins are commonly used by biochemical industry for numerous processes. Refining these proteins' properties via mutations causes stability effects as well. Accurate computational method to predict how mutations affect protein stability are necessary to facilitate efficient protein design. However, accuracy of predic…
The Geometric Canary: Predicting Steerability and Detecting Drift via Representational Stabilitycs.LG
Geometric stability predicts steerability and detects drift in language models.
problem Predicting steerability and detecting drift in language models.
method Supervised and unsupervised geometric stability measures.
result Supervised geometric stability predicts steerability with high accuracy and detects drift earlier.
Random forests are stable and provide reliable prediction intervals.
problem Stability and reliability of random forest prediction intervals.
method Established stability under mild conditions and proved coverage bounds.
result Non-asymptotic lower and upper bounds for prediction interval coverage.
To date, the instability of prognostic predictors in a sparse high dimensional model, which hinders their clinical adoption, has received little attention. Stable prediction is often overlooked in favour of performance. Yet, stability prevails as key when adopting models in critical areas as healthcare. Our study propo…
Cluster Stability Selectionstat.ME
Cluster stability selection improves feature selection in correlated data.
problem Feature selection stability in correlated data.
method Cluster stability selection exploiting known cluster structure.
result Better predictive performance than lasso alone and stability selection.
A stability-based method selects the most desirable conformal prediction set.
problem Selecting the most desirable conformal prediction set from multiple valid sets invalidates coverage guarantees.
method A stability-based approach that ensures coverage for the selected prediction set.
result The stability-based approach maintains coverage guarantees for the selected prediction set.
Graph neural network predicts grasp stability from tactile sensor data.
problem Predicting grasp stability from tactile sensor data.
method Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) trained on tactile sensor data.
result Graph neural network effectively predicts grasp stability.
The paper improves decision tree stability for health care applications.
problem Stability of decision trees in health care applications.
method Introducing a new distance metric to determine tree stability and proposing a novel training methodology.
result On average, a 4.6% decrease in predictive power yields a 38% increase in model stability.
The paper derives uniform stability-based coverage bounds for conformal prediction methods.
problem Establishing theoretical guarantees for conformal prediction methods.
method Uniform stability perspective applied to full-conformal, jackknife+, and CV+ prediction regions.
result Coverage bounds for finite-dimensional models derived using a concentration argument.
Stability in clinical prediction models is crucial for transferability between studies, yet has received little attention. The problem is paramount in high dimensional data which invites sparse models with feature selection capability. We introduce an effective method to stabilize sparse Cox model of time-to-events usi…
New method stabilizes machine learning predictions across random seeds.
problem Machine learning predictions vary across random seeds, causing instability.
method Introduces adaptive cross-bagging to eliminate seed dependence.
result Adaptive cross-bagging achieves targeted stability in debiased machine learning.
New method stabilizes deep learning models for clinical risk prediction.
problem Stability issues in deep learning models for clinical risk prediction.
method Bootstrapping-based regularisation framework embedded in deep neural networks.
result Improved prediction stability across multiple datasets.
Recently, many regularized procedures have been proposed for variable selection in linear regression, but their performance depends on the tuning parameter selection. Here a criterion for the tuning parameter selection is proposed, which combines the strength of both stability selection and cross-validation and therefo…
EKG-based models show better stability across patient populations than EHR-based models.
problem Model generalization issues in EHR and EKG-based predictive models.
method Two tests to measure model generalization, comparing EHR and EKG data.
result EKG-based models are more stable across different patient populations.
Pipeline learns topological features for protein stability prediction.
problem Predicting protein stability using topological features.
method Data-driven method to learn topological features, comparing with expert features.
result Topological features achieve 92%-99% of SME-based models' performance.
We derive Gaussian approximations for random forest predictions using region-based stabilization.
problem Improving the accuracy of random forest predictions for Poisson process data.
method Region-based stabilization and Malliavin-Stein method for multivariate Gaussian approximation.
result Established Gaussian approximation bounds for random forest predictions under Poisson process.
Online algorithms stabilize in feedback loops of performative prediction.
problem Feedback loops in algorithmic predictions influence data distributions.
method Martingale argument and randomization to avoid distributional assumptions.
result No-regret algorithms converge to performatively stable equilibria.
Proposes BSSP to stabilize predictions in biased data.
problem Distribution shift between training and test data causes prediction instability.
method Balance-subsampled stable prediction (BSSP) algorithm based on fractional factorial design.
result Significantly improves prediction stability across unknown test data.
AUASE embeds dynamic networks with stability guarantees for node comparison.
problem Stability in dynamic network embeddings for comparing nodes across time.
method Attributed unfolded adjacency spectral embedding (AUASE) for stable unsupervised learning.
result AUASE provides significant improvements in link prediction and node classification.
EFSIS combines feature selection stability and accuracy.
problem Improving feature selection stability and accuracy in ensemble learning.
method Combines data perturbation and function perturbation strategies.
result Empirical results show high prediction accuracy and stability.
Improves prediction stability with model misspecification and distribution shift.
problem Inaccurate parameter estimation and instability of prediction in real-world applications.
method Proposes Decorrelated Weighting Regression (DWR) algorithm to optimize weights for samples and variables.
result Significantly improves accuracy of parameter estimation and prediction stability.
Proposes a score to compare rule-based algorithms' interpretability.
problem Lack of consensus on interpretability for predictive models.
method Defines a score with three terms: predictivity, stability, and simplicity, each quantified by simple formulas.
result Compares interpretability of rule-based and tree-based algorithms for regression and classification.
Private classification and online prediction are shown to be equivalent.
problem Learning with differential privacy and online prediction equivalence.
method Introducing global stability and proving equivalence between online learnability and private PAC learnability.
result Every concept class with finite Littlestone dimension can be learned by a differentially-private algorithm.
A Stable Lassostat.ME
Improves Lasso's stability in correlated predictor settings.
problem Lasso's selection stability deteriorates with correlated predictors.
method Integrates a weighting scheme into the Lasso penalty function, using a correlation-adjusted ranking.
result Demonstrates improved selection stability on simulated and real-world datasets.
Log-Ergodic Dynamics in Stochastic Monetary Velocity: Theoretical Insights and Economic Implicationsq-fin.GN
Log-ergodic model improves velocity of money prediction.
problem Improving velocity of money prediction for economic control.
method Log-ergodic processes to simulate monetary velocity.
result Log-ergodic model offers superior predictive power.
Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions to measure evidence conflict and stability.
problem Modern data analysis lacks mechanisms to show the clarity, conflict, or stability of evidence behind predictions.
method Signed Evidence Flow (SEF) combines fitted prediction with signed feature attributions.
result SEF measures conflict and stability, and shows that conflict can improve loss prediction beyond confidence.
Proposes a method to predict cluster number and cluster representatives using cluster stability analysis.
problem Determining the number of clusters in a dataset.
method Analyzes cluster stability using Monte-Carlo simulation to predict cluster number and find cluster representatives.
result Significant improvement in predicting cluster numbers and cluster composition in large datasets.
A fast method estimates stability of ensemble feature selectors.
problem Improving stability of ensemble feature selectors for better prediction.
method Simulator of a feature selector to estimate stability.
result Reduces computation time for estimating stability.
Gradient Reduction Convolutional Neural Network Policy for Financial Deep Reinforcement Learningq-fin.CP
Enhanced CNN for financial data improves predictive accuracy and stability.
problem Complexity and variability in financial data.
method Normalization and Gradient Reduction Architecture.
result Improvement in model accuracy and stability.
A new technique reduces the size of rRNNs for time series prediction.
problem Minimizing the size of rRNNs for efficient time series prediction.
method Combining Takens-based attractor reconstruction with machine learning for feature extraction.
result Reduced network size by a factor of 15 with improved performance.
Bayesian Neural Nets improve model stability and fit.
problem Improving model stability and fit in time series prediction.
method Assign Bayesian Neural Nets to drift and diffusion terms of SDE, infer posterior using SGLD.
result Significantly improved stability and better model fit on benchmarks.
A stability metric compares feature selection algorithms in machine learning.
problem Stability of feature selection algorithms in machine learning.
method Rank-based instability index to compare MDA, LIME, and SHAP algorithms.
result LIME and SHAP are more stable than MDA, with LIME being best for human interpretability.
The paper analyzes how stacking improves model stability.
problem Lack of theoretical insight into how stacking works.
method Stability analysis of learning algorithms, focusing on hypothesis stability.
result The hypothesis stability of stacking is a product of base models and combiner.
Improved TreNet for trend prediction in time series data.
problem Validation method for TreNet did not account for time series data's sequential nature.
method Walk-forward validation method and multiple independent runs to evaluate model stability.
result TreNet still performs better than vanilla DNN models but not on all data sets.
Machine learning predicts molecular crystal stability.
problem Predicting the stability of molecular crystals.
method Supervised and unsupervised machine learning techniques to classify and predict lattice energy.
result Data-driven assessment of chemical groups' contribution to crystal stability.
The study identifies conditions under which algorithmic stability explains generalization in interpolating learning systems.
problem Understanding when algorithmic stability explains generalization in interpolating learning systems.
method Modeling training as a function-space trajectory and measuring sensitivity to single-sample perturbations.
result There exist interpolating regimes with small risk where contractive sensitivity cannot hold, showing that stability is not a universal explanation.
Study finds machine learning interpretations are often unstable and unreliable.
problem Reliability of machine learning interpretations in high-stakes domains.
method Stability study on global interpretations using tabular data.
result Popular interpretation methods are frequently unstable, less stable than predictions, and not associated with prediction accuracy.
A new hybrid model predicts air pollution with higher stability and accuracy.
problem Accurate and reliable forecasting of PM2.5 and PM10 to warn of hazardous air pollutants.
method Data preprocessing, MOHHO algorithm, ELM model optimization, robust evaluation system.
result The hybrid model outperforms other models in stability and accuracy.
Combining interpretability and stability methods improves DNN robustness.
problem Improving interpretability and robustness of deep neural networks.
method Combining interpretability (conductance) and stability (binary classifier) methods to detect and discard wrong predictions.
result Combining interpretability and stability methods increases model robustness.
StableDR stabilizes doubly robust learning for biased recommendation data.
problem Data missing not at random in recommender systems.
method StableDR, a stabilized doubly robust learning approach.
result StableDR achieves bounded bias, variance, and generalization error.
New framework for predicting decisions that influence their own outcomes.
problem Predictions that affect the outcomes they predict, leading to undesirable distribution shift.
method Risk minimization framework combining statistics, game theory, and causality.
result Necessary and sufficient conditions for retraining to converge to a performatively stable point of minimal loss.
Predictive coding networks are shown to be stable, robust, and converge faster than backpropagation.
problem Stability, robustness, and convergence of predictive coding networks.
method Dynamical systems theory and Lyapunov stability analysis.
result Predictive coding networks are Lyapunov stable and converge faster than backpropagation.