This paper proposes a two-stage scoring approach to help lenders decide their fund allocations in the peer-to-peer (P2P) lending market. The existing scoring approaches focus on only either probability of default (PD) prediction, known as credit scoring, or profitability prediction, known as profit scoring, to identify…
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48 results for “predictive scores”
SCORE improves tree-based predictions with boosted residual extraTrees.
problem Improving tree-based prediction models with reduced errors.
method Inspired by representation learning, SCORE uses boosting, regularized regression, and variable selection.
result SCORE provides comparable or superior performance compared to other models.
Improves conformal prediction by combining multiple score functions and optimizing weights.
problem Limitations of single-score conformal predictors in multi-class classification.
method Combines multiple score functions and optimizes weights to minimize prediction set size.
result Consistently outperforms single-score conformal predictors while maintaining valid coverage.
The paper introduces a knowledge score for GPR predictions to assess their reliability.
problem Uncertainty in probabilistic predictions from Gaussian process regression models.
method A knowledge score quantifying the reduction of uncertainty in GPR predictions.
result The knowledge score improves prediction accuracy in various tasks.
New scoring rules compare probabilistic top lists in classification.
problem Evaluation of probabilistic top lists in classification.
method Elicitability through symmetric proper scoring rules.
result Brier score provides a well-suited metric for comparison.
A new method improves efficiency of conformal prediction for ensemble models.
problem Efficiently estimating uncertainty for ensemble models without distributional assumptions.
method Proposes a multivariate score function to merge prediction regions of individual models, reducing conservatism.
result Demonstrates more efficient prediction regions compared to existing methods.
Proposes a new method to minimize non-singleton predictions in conformal prediction.
problem Large prediction sets in conformal prediction are costly and inefficient.
method Introduces a new nonconformity score to minimize non-singleton sets and provides an algorithm to compute it efficiently.
result The proposed Singleton-Optimized Conformal Prediction (SOCOP) method increases singleton frequency by over 20% compared to standard scores, with minimal impact on average set size.
Credit estimation and bankruptcy prediction methods have been utilizing Altman's score method for the last several years. It is reported in many studies that score is sensitive to changes in accounting figures. Researches have proposed different variations to conventional score that can improve the predicti…
SPI uses synthetic data to improve predictive inference efficiency.
problem Inefficient predictive inference with scarce calibration data.
method Integrates synthetic data to align nonconformity scores and improve coverage guarantees.
result SPI yields substantially tighter and more informative prediction sets.
Where machine-learned predictive risk scores inform high-stakes decisions, such as bail and sentencing in criminal justice, fairness has been a serious concern. Recent work has characterized the disparate impact that such risk scores can have when used for a binary classification task. This may not account, however, fo…
OTCP extends conformal prediction to multivariate data using optimal transport.
problem Uncertainty quantification in multivariate machine learning models.
method OTCP leverages optimal transport to rank multivariate conformity scores.
result Preserves distribution-free coverage guarantees in multidimensional settings.
ChatGPT and Corporate Policiesq-fin.CP
ChatGPT scores corporate investment plans, predicting future spending and returns.
problem Measuring and predicting corporate investment plans.
method Created a firm-level ChatGPT investment score based on conference calls.
result The investment score predicts future capital expenditures and returns.
Most multi-class classifiers make their prediction for a test sample by scoring the classes and selecting the one with the highest score. Analyzing these prediction scores is useful to understand the classifier behavior and to assess its reliability. We present an interactive visualization that facilitates per-class an…
A new kernel-based nonconformity score improves multivariate prediction regions.
problem Tackling the challenge of compressing multivariate residual vectors into scalars while preserving geometric structure.
method Introducing a Multivariate Kernel Score (MKS) that decomposes into an anisotropic MMD, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees and convergence rates.
result The MKS produces prediction regions that explicitly adapt to geometric structure, reducing volume compared to ellipsoidal baselines.
Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction improves prediction set sizes.
problem Misspecification of Bayesian working model and prior misalignment.
method RoBAS (Robust Bayes-Assisted Shrinkage) framework with two instantiations.
result Proposed scores adapt to prior quality, reducing interval widths in shifted settings.
Paper tackles transparency and auditability of machine learning in credit scoring.
problem Missed potential in using modern machine learning for credit scoring due to lack of transparency.
method Develops a framework for making black box machine learning models transparent, auditable, and explainable.
result Comparable interpretability can be achieved with machine learning while maintaining predictive power.
Topological anomaly scores predict return curves in S&P 500 stocks
problem Detecting anomalies in financial time series
method BallMapper, decoder-conditional VAE, Function-on-Function regression
result Anomaly history carries predictive content for return curves
Many in-hospital mortality risk prediction scores dichotomize predictive variables to simplify the score calculation. However, hard thresholding in these additive stepwise scores of the form "add x points if variable v is above/below threshold t" may lead to critical failures. In this paper, we seek to develop risk pre…
New tree splitting criteria improve probabilistic predictions.
problem Improving tree-based nonparametric predictive distributions.
method Using proper scoring rules for tree splitting criteria.
result Trees with new splitting criteria produce better predictive distributions.
Study examines fairness in machine learning for credit scoring.
problem Bias in machine learning models for credit scoring.
method Comprehensive experimental study of fairness-aware machine learning models.
result Fairness-aware models improve fairness while maintaining accuracy.
This thesis improves protein contact prediction using unsupervised and supervised methods.
problem Improving accuracy of protein contact prediction.
method Unsupervised and supervised deep learning methods.
result A scoring system called diversity score for measuring contact novelty.
This work proposes using Conformal Prediction to improve OOD detection scores and vice versa.
problem Improper evaluation of OOD detection scores due to finite sample size.
method Defining new conformal AUROC and FRP@TPR95 metrics and using OOD scores as non-conformity scores.
result Improved evaluation metrics and better interpretation of OOD scores.
Proposes a score to compare rule-based algorithms' interpretability.
problem Lack of consensus on interpretability for predictive models.
method Defines a score with three terms: predictivity, stability, and simplicity, each quantified by simple formulas.
result Compares interpretability of rule-based and tree-based algorithms for regression and classification.
Robust Bayes-Assisted Conformal Prediction improves prediction set sizes.
problem Misspecification of Bayesian working model and prior misalignment.
method RoBAS (Robust Bayes-Assisted Shrinkage) framework with two instantiations.
result Improves prediction set sizes in shifted settings.
SMURF-THP improves Transformer Hawkes process models by providing uncertainty quantification.
problem Uncertainty quantification for Transformer Hawkes process predictions.
method Score matching for learning the score function of event arrival times.
result SMURF-THP outperforms likelihood-based methods in confidence calibration.
Locus scores predictions for risk, reducing large-loss events.
problem Deployment cost from inaccurate predictions, especially large losses.
method Distribution-free loss-scale reliability score using any predictive distribution.
result Reduces large-loss frequency compared to standard heuristics.
This research adapts scoring rules for training survival models, improving predictive performance.
problem Training survival models with traditional methods struggles with censoring.
method Adapting scoring rules for survival analysis, creating a flexible framework for model training.
result Scoring rules can be successfully incorporated into model training, yielding competitive performance.
SACP aggregates nonconformity scores from multiple predictors to create more efficient uncertainty sets.
problem Combining predictive uncertainties from multiple models for efficient and reliable uncertainty quantification.
method SACP (Symmetric Aggregated Conformal Prediction) aggregates nonconformity scores using a flexible symmetric aggregation function.
result SACP consistently improves efficiency and often outperforms state-of-the-art model aggregation baselines.
Null-Calibrated Conformal Selection via Target-Membership Scores
problem Identifying test candidates whose unknown responses fall in a target region while controlling the false discovery rate
method Membership-score-based conformal selection
result Finite-sample valid null p-values
Fall is a leading cause of death which suffers the elderly and society. Timed Up and Go (TUG) test is a common tool for fall risk assessment. In this paper, we propose a method for predicting TUG score from gait characteristics extracted from video with computer vision and machine learning technologies. First, 3D pose …
Study optimizes tree-based models for better alignment of predicted scores and actual probabilities.
problem Traditional calibration metrics fail to align predicted scores with actual probabilities when score distributions deviate from the underlying data.
method Optimizes tree-based models (Random Forest, XGBoost) using Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence to minimize the difference between predicted and true probability distributions.
result Optimized tree-based models yield superior alignment between predicted scores and actual probabilities without significant performance loss.
Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference improves semisupervised mean estimation by calibrating prediction scores.
problem Semisupervised mean estimation with a small labeled sample and a large unlabeled sample, and miscalibrated prediction models.
method Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference (Calibeating) post-hoc calibrates the prediction score on the labeled sample before using it for semisupervised estimation.
result Calibrated Prediction-Powered Inference can improve the original score both as a predictor of the outcome and as a regression adjustment for semisupervised inference.
Estimates uncertainty in bounding box regression for object detection.
problem Reliable deployment of deep object detectors in safety-critical tasks.
method Training variance networks with energy score as a proper scoring rule.
result Energy score leads to better calibrated and lower entropy predictive distributions.
Updating predictive models introduces bias, leading to miscalibration.
problem Bias introduced when updating predictive models after interventions.
method Proposed a causal framework and partially observed Markov decision process.
result Successive predictive scores may converge to undesirable outcomes.
Study finds simple model-agreement scores perform well in various error estimation scenarios.
problem Evaluating model performance on unseen distributions using disparate scoring functions.
method Rigorously studied popular scoring functions (confidence, local manifold smoothness, model agreement) independently of mechanism choice.
result Simple model-agreement scores outperform confidence- and smoothness-based scores in realistic settings with compromised training data.
Adaptive method improves prediction intervals with global coverage guarantees and local error distribution.
problem Global coverage guarantees of conformal regression are often violated by local error distributions.
method Adaptive Conformal Regression with Jackknife+ Rescaled Scores
result Improves local coverage without sacrificing global coverage, especially in low-data regimes.
Proposes measures for uncertainty quantification using proper scoring rules.
problem Uncertainty quantification for prediction tasks.
method Decomposes proper scoring rules into divergence and entropy components, tailoring uncertainty quantification to specific tasks.
result Flexibility in uncertainty quantification improves performance in selective prediction and active learning.
VLM judges rank well but score poorly; task difficulty and annotation quality affect interval width.
problem VLMs as judges lack reliability indicators in multimodal evaluations.
method Conformal prediction using score-token log-probabilities.
result Evaluation uncertainty is task-dependent, affecting interval width and reliability.
ST-BCP narrows the coverage gap in BCP by transforming nonconformity scores.
problem The looseness in BCP's coverage guarantee due to Markov's inequality.
method Introduces a data-dependent transformation of nonconformity scores.
result Reduces the average coverage gap from 4.20% to 1.12% on benchmarks.
Computational approaches to drug discovery can reduce the time and cost associated with experimental assays and enable the screening of novel chemotypes. Structure-based drug design methods rely on scoring functions to rank and predict binding affinities and poses. The ever-expanding amount of protein-ligand binding an…
New method extends conformal prediction to multivariate settings using optimal transport.
problem Limited applicability of conformal prediction to multivariate real-valued scores.
method Use optimal transport to define vector-ranks and multivariate quantile regions for finite-sample coverage.
result Constructs the first multivariate conformal predictive distributions with finite-sample calibration.
New method creates adaptive prediction intervals for regression models.
problem Need to quantify uncertainty in regression model predictions.
method Regression trees and Random Forests trained on conformity scores.
result Superior scalability and performance compared to baselines.
Conditional Forecasts and Proper Scoring Rules for Reliable and Accurate Performative Predictionsmath.ST
Conditional forecasts improve performative prediction accuracy.
problem Performative predictions undermine standard forecasting methods.
method Condition forecasts on covariates to make them forecast-invariant.
result Proper scoring rules fail under conditioning, but two solutions are identified.
We introduce Supersparse Linear Integer Models (SLIM) as a tool to create scoring systems for binary classification. We derive theoretical bounds on the true risk of SLIM scoring systems, and present experimental results to show that SLIM scoring systems are accurate, sparse, and interpretable classification models.
MCP extends conformal prediction to vector-valued score functions without data splitting.
problem Fixed prediction set shapes in scalar score functions limit coverage guarantees.
method MCP uses a single optimization problem for prediction set design and calibration, eliminating data splitting.
result RemMCP and RelMCP achieve target coverage with smaller or comparable prediction set sizes, reducing variance.
Trimming helps in conformal prediction when it separates anomaly scores.
problem Effectiveness of trimming in conformal prediction under contamination.
method Analyse fixed-threshold trimming as a replacement of the contaminated calibration law with a retained law.
result Trimming helps when it separates anomaly scores, reducing clean-target coverage to a one-dimensional score-CDF transfer problem.
We propose a generic framework to calibrate accuracy and confidence of a prediction in deep neural networks through stochastic inferences. We interpret stochastic regularization using a Bayesian model, and analyze the relation between predictive uncertainty of networks and variance of the prediction scores obtained by …
Method predicts ODX scores for breast cancer patients based on clinical data.
problem Predicting ODX scores for breast cancer patients to aid decision-making.
method Distributional random forest approach using 9 clinico-pathological characteristics.
result Correctly predicted 92% of low risk and 40.2% of high risk patients.