The paper adds explanation to predictive process monitoring.
problem Equipping predictive business process monitoring with explanation capabilities.
method Used game theory of Shapley Values to obtain robust explanations.
result First time explanations given in predictive business process monitoring.
This research tackles group fairness in predictive process monitoring by ensuring predictions are independent of sensitive group membership.
problem Predictive models using biased historical data can perpetuate unfair behavior in new cases.
method Investigates independence through metrics like ΔDP and a composite loss function balancing predictive performance and fairness.
result Proposes and validates a composite loss function for training models that balance fairness and performance.
Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict as early as possible the final outcome of an ongoing case. Traditionally, predictive process monitoring methods are optimized with respect to accuracy. However, in environments …
Emerging wearable sensors have enabled the unprecedented ability to continuously monitor human activities for healthcare purposes. However, with so many ambient sensors collecting different measurements, it becomes important not only to maintain good monitoring accuracy, but also low power consumption to ensure sustain…
The paper improves neural network predictions by integrating process knowledge.
problem Improving neural network predictions for process execution data.
method Integrates background process knowledge into neural networks with attention mechanisms.
result Improves prediction accuracy for process execution data.
Predictive business process monitoring methods exploit logs of completed cases of a process in order to make predictions about running cases thereof. Existing methods in this space are tailor-made for specific prediction tasks. Moreover, their relative accuracy is highly sensitive to the dataset at hand, thus requiring…
Paper proposes a method to quantify and explain machine learning uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.
problem Neglect of data-driven estimation, point forecasts without model uncertainty, and lack of explanations.
method Quantile Regression Forests for interval predictions and SHapley Additive Explanations for uncertainty.
result Effective handling of model uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.
Paper proposes a GAN-based method for better next event prediction in business processes.
problem Insufficient training data and sub-optimal network configuration limit deep learning approaches to next event prediction.
method Adversarial training framework using Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for sequential temporal data.
result The proposed approach achieves at least as good accuracy as non-adversarial methods and outperforms them in accuracy and prediction earliness.
Predictive process monitoring is a family of techniques to analyze events produced during the execution of a business process in order to predict the future state or the final outcome of running process instances. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a process instance, the likelihood …
This research develops efficient surrogate models for predicting crack growth in metal structures.
problem Accurately predicting crack growth in metal structures under uncertainty.
method Employing Gaussian Process (GP) regression models for latent variable modeling to create probabilistic surrogate models.
result Surrogate models successfully encode material and load-related uncertainties in stochastic crack growth processes.
Neural process model improves real-time condition monitoring signal prediction.
problem Real-time adaptation for complex condition monitoring signals.
method Label-aware neural processes encoding and reconstruction.
result Advantages in real-time adaptation, enhanced signal prediction with uncertainty quantification, and joint prediction for labels and signals.
This research tackles monitoring machine learning algorithms post-deployment, addressing performativity issues.
problem Monitoring machine learning algorithms after deployment, especially when they affect their own data-generating process.
method Uses causal inference techniques to navigate performativity and compares different monitoring criteria and data sources.
result Different monitoring systems have varying operating characteristics and implications for ML monitoring design.
A novel extrapolation method is proposed for longitudinal forecasting. A hierarchical Gaussian process model is used to combine nonlinear population change and individual memory of the past to make prediction. The prediction error is minimized through the hierarchical design. The method is further extended to joint mod…
A method to monitor probability predictions for calibration loss in image classification models.
problem Maintaining calibration in machine learning predictions over time.
method Cumulative sum-based approach with dynamic limits for early detection of miscalibration.
result Early detection of operational context changes impacting image classification performance.
Physics-informed model predicts beam stiffness and monitors structural health.
problem Predicting and monitoring the stiffness of Euler-Bernoulli beams.
method Physics-informed Gaussian process model using the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation.
result Model accurately predicts bending stiffness and detects structural damage.
In recent times, the manufacturing processes are faced with many external or internal (the increase of customized product rescheduling , process reliability,..) changes. Therefore, monitoring and quality management activities for these manufacturing processes are difficult. Thus, the managers need more proactive approa…
ConvGNP improves sensor placement for climate monitoring.
problem Maximizing informativeness of environmental sensor placements in remote regions.
method Convolutional Gaussian neural processes (ConvGNP) for non-stationary spatial predictions.
result ConvGNP outperforms traditional GP models in predicting sensor performance and reducing uncertainty.
Paper monitors DNN accuracy to enhance trustworthiness.
problem Varying DNN accuracy in practice and lack of ground truth labels.
method Post-hoc accuracy monitor model using Monte-Carlo dropout ensemble.
result Accuracy monitor provides close-to-true accuracy estimation.
Neural EKF improves structural dynamics prediction.
problem Accurately predicting structural response for health monitoring.
method Neural Extended Kalman Filter (Neural EKF) for learning dynamics.
result Significant predictive capabilities demonstrated on simulated and real-world data.
Condition monitoring is one of the routine tasks in all major process industries. The mechanical parts such as a motor, gear, bearings are the major components of a process industry and any fault in them may cause a total shutdown of the whole process, which may result in serious losses. Therefore, it is very crucial t…
New monitoring method detects ML risk models' performance changes in medical interventions.
problem Monitoring ML risk models in healthcare is complicated by confounding medical interventions.
method Developed a new score-based CUSUM monitoring procedure with dynamic control limits.
result Valid inference is possible if conditional exchangeability or time-constant selection bias hold.
Study proposes a novel local explanation method for deep learning classifiers in process mining.
problem Lack of interpretability in deep learning models for process mining.
method Defines local regions using latent space representations and visualizes explanations.
result Deep learning classifier achieves high performance and local explanations increase user trust.
The assessment of Parkinson's disease (PD) poses a significant challenge as it is influenced by various factors which lead to a complex and fluctuating symptom manifestation. Thus, a frequent and objective PD assessment is highly valuable for effective health management of people with Parkinson's disease (PwP). Here, w…
This paper improves Gaussian process predictions by integrating prior knowledge.
problem Gaussian processes lack predictive power when prior information is ignored.
method Derive mean and covariance functions from previous data using weighted sums of basis functions.
result Integrating prior knowledge significantly increases look-ahead time and accuracy.
In manufacture, steel and other metals are mainly cut and shaped during the fabrication process by computer numerical control (CNC) machines. To keep high productivity and efficiency of the fabrication process, engineers need to monitor the real-time process of CNC machines, and the lifetime management of machine tools…
Paper improves ETF tail-risk monitoring reliability.
problem Unreliable ETF risk monitoring under degraded data.
method Combines quality checks, prediction, scoring, and adjustment.
result Improves tail-risk monitoring, especially during stressed periods.
Optimizes state monitoring in Markovian systems with cost constraints.
problem Balancing state queries with prediction costs in Markovian systems.
method Greedy policy and SGD-based learning variant for optimal predict-query tradeoff.
result Greedy policy is suboptimal but performs close to optimal under certain conditions.
Modified PCA algorithm with continual learning preserves features of previous modes for multimode process monitoring.
problem Catastrophic forgetting of previous modes in monitoring models for successive modes.
method Modified PCA algorithm with elastic weight consolidation (EWC) to preserve features of previous modes.
result PCA-EWC algorithm effectively monitors multimode processes without performance decrease.
Gaussian Process Regression improves damage assessment in structural health monitoring.
problem Inaccurate damage quantification in varying conditions and environments.
method Gaussian Process Regression models with Damage Indices for probabilistic damage assessment.
result The method provides probability-based decision-making for structural health monitoring.
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) is one of the criteria air pollutants regulated by the Environmental Protection Agency in the United States. There is strong evidence that ambient exposure to (PM2.5) increases risk of mortality and hospitalization. Large scale epidemiological studies on the health effects of P…
Deep neural nets classify tool wear in blanking processes.
problem Predicting tool wear in blanking processes to improve quality and reduce downtime.
method Deep Convolutional Neural Networks trained on workpiece images of 16 wear states.
result High accuracy in predicting tool wear states.
Study proposes explainable analytics for manufacturing process planning.
problem Improving data-driven decision-making in manufacturing.
method Combines process mining, machine learning, and XAI. Uses deep learning for prediction and Shapley values/ICE plots for explanations.
result Enhanced decision-making capabilities through local post-hoc explanations.
For large-scale industrial processes under closed-loop control, process dynamics directly resulting from control action are typical characteristics and may show different behaviors between real faults and normal changes of operating conditions. However, conventional distributed monitoring approaches do not consider the…
Deep CNN monitors AM quality with high accuracy.
problem Quality control in AM processes.
method Deep Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) model trained and tested online.
result 94% accuracy and 96% specificity in classifying AM quality.
The paper monitors artificial neural networks using embeddings and multivariate control charts.
problem Ensuring the stability of artificial neural networks during deployment.
method Monitoring the latent feature representation (embedding) of ANN outputs using multivariate control charts based on data depth and ranks.
result The proposed method effectively detects nonstationary data streams in ANN outputs.
The paper develops methods for monitoring TPL machine health.
problem Inaccurate and untimely maintenance of TPL systems leads to poor quality and inefficiencies.
method Physics-informed data-driven predictive models integrated with statistical approaches.
result The methods achieve high accuracy across various scenarios and conditions.
A new method for efficient nonlinear process monitoring using random Bernoulli features.
problem High computational demands and real-time responsiveness in online monitoring systems.
method Random Bernoulli principal component analysis to capture nonlinear patterns efficiently.
result The proposed methods offer excellent scalability and reduced computational complexity.
Paper uses Gaussian Processes to monitor air quality in Kampala.
problem Monitoring air pollution in cities with limited sensor coverage.
method Gaussian Processes for nowcasting and forecasting air pollution.
result Demonstrates the effectiveness of Gaussian Processes in air quality monitoring.
Low-cost sensors improve air quality prediction accuracy significantly.
problem Improving air quality monitoring networks with affordable sensors.
method Developed a high-resolution air quality prediction engine using low-cost sensors and official data.
result The use of low-cost sensors improves prediction accuracy by 25% and 15% for PM2.5 and PM10 respectively in densely monitored areas.
We present a numerical scheme to calculate fluctuation identities for exponential Lévy processes in the continuous monitoring case. This includes the Spitzer identities for touching a single upper or lower barrier, and the more difficult case of the two-barriers exit problem. These identities are given in the Fourier-L…
System predicts ice formation to improve road safety.
problem Improving road safety through accurate ice formation prediction.
method Combining physical models and machine learning for data correction.
result Machine learning effectively corrects incorrect data in forecasts.
Bayesian methods detect and forecast inclinometer anomalies in UK rail data.
problem Detecting and predicting dangerous movements in earthwork slopes.
method Bayesian UQ techniques applied to latent Markov process and non-linear Bayesian filter.
result Anomaly detection and forecasting demonstrated on large real-world data.
Two methods monitor high-dimensional processes via manifold fitting or learning.
problem Monitoring high-dimensional, dynamic industrial processes.
method Manifold fitting and learning approaches for online SPC.
result Manifold-fitting approach achieves performance competitive with classical methods.
New method detects bearing faults using multivariate statistical process control.
problem Early detection of bearing faults in rotating machinery.
method Multivariate statistical process control charts applied to Fourier transform features of fixed-time batches.
result Effectiveness in detecting bearing faults across different conditions.
We tackle the problem of multi-task learning with copula process. Multivariable prediction in spatial and spatial-temporal processes such as natural resource estimation and pollution monitoring have been typically addressed using techniques based on Gaussian processes and co-Kriging. While the Gaussian prior assumption…
Focuses on monitoring and explaining models in real-world applications.
problem Ensuring high quality machine learning services in production environments.
method Statistical techniques for model performance and data monitoring, explanations of predictions.
result Challenges and solutions for implementing monitoring and explanation in production models.
Risk monitoring detects when TTA models degrade at test time.
problem Detecting when TTA models degrade at test time.
method Extended risk monitoring tools based on sequential testing with confidence sequences.
result Demonstrated effectiveness of TTA monitoring framework across various datasets and methods.
Infrastructure monitoring is critical for safe operations and sustainability. Water distribution networks (WDNs) are large-scale networked critical systems with complex cascade dynamics which are difficult to predict. Ubiquitous monitoring is expensive and a key challenge is to infer the contaminant dynamics from parti…