This paper explores how to interpret machine learning models in business process analytics.
problem The lack of interpretability in machine learning models used for predictive process analytics.
method Derives explanations using interpretable machine learning techniques to compare and contrast predictive models.
result Highlights scenarios where accuracy alone may not be sufficient in assessing the suitability of techniques used to encode event log data.
Study proposes explainable analytics for manufacturing process planning.
problem Improving data-driven decision-making in manufacturing.
method Combines process mining, machine learning, and XAI. Uses deep learning for prediction and Shapley values/ICE plots for explanations.
result Enhanced decision-making capabilities through local post-hoc explanations.
Paper proposes a new method for learning business process representations.
problem Challenges in capturing all useful information in business process data.
method Combines Gramian Angular Fields and Convolutional Neural Networks for representation learning.
result Demonstrates effectiveness of the approach through visualization and multiple process prediction tasks.
We present analytical investigations of a multiplicative stochastic process that models a simple investor dynamics in a random environment. The dynamics of the investor's budget, x(t), depends on the stochasticity of the return on investment, r(t), for which different model assumptions are discussed. The fat-tail d…
We tackle the problem of multi-task learning with copula process. Multivariable prediction in spatial and spatial-temporal processes such as natural resource estimation and pollution monitoring have been typically addressed using techniques based on Gaussian processes and co-Kriging. While the Gaussian prior assumption…
pmsims R package uses Gaussian process for flexible sample size estimation in clinical models.
problem Determining adequate sample size for clinical prediction models.
method Simulation-based Gaussian process search for flexible sample size estimation.
result Gaussian process-based method produces more stable sample size estimates, especially in challenging settings.
Paper proposes a method to quantify and explain machine learning uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.
problem Neglect of data-driven estimation, point forecasts without model uncertainty, and lack of explanations.
method Quantile Regression Forests for interval predictions and SHapley Additive Explanations for uncertainty.
result Effective handling of model uncertainty in predictive process monitoring.
Proposes a Gaussian process model for constrained dynamics learning.
problem Challenges in identifying constrained dynamics of mechanical systems.
method Combines analytical mechanics with Gaussian process regression.
result Improves data efficiency and constraint integrity in predictions.
The tremendous growth of positioning technologies and GPS enabled devices has produced huge volumes of tracking data during the recent years. This source of information constitutes a rich input for data analytics processes, either offline (e.g. cluster analysis, hot motion discovery) or online (e.g. short-term forecast…
Improved neural network predicts spectral functions more accurately than traditional methods.
problem Reconstructing real-time spectral functions from imaginary-time Green's functions is ill-posed and challenging.
method Feature Learning Network (FL-net) for enhanced prediction accuracy.
result FL-net achieves at least 20% improvement over traditional methods like MEM.
This paper improves federated learning for industrial predictive analytics by accommodating client heterogeneity.
problem Traditional federated models assume homogeneity in degradation processes, which doesn't apply to industrial settings.
method Personalized federated prognostic model using proximal gradient descent algorithm for joint parameter estimation.
result The proposed model enhances performance and provides comprehensive failure time distributions.
A new method uses vector embeddings to improve analytics model performance.
problem Challenges in selecting high-quality datasets for enhanced analytics performance.
method Transform datasets into vector embeddings using NumTabData2Vec, then use similarity search for model inference.
result The proposed method accurately predicts analytics outcomes and increases speedup.
For a GJR-GARCH specification with a generic innovation distribution we derive analytic expressions for the first four conditional moments of the forward and aggregated returns and variances. Moment for the most commonly used GARCH models are stated as special cases. We also the limits of these moments as the time hori…
In industrial data analytics, one of the fundamental problems is to utilize the temporal correlation of the industrial data to make timely predictions in the production process, such as fault prediction and yield prediction. However, the traditional prediction models are fixed while the conditions of the machines chang…
We construct flexible likelihoods for multi-output Gaussian process models that leverage neural networks as components. We make use of sparse variational inference methods to enable scalable approximate inference for the resulting class of models. An attractive feature of these models is that they can admit analytic pr…
In predictive process analytics, current and historical process data in event logs is used to predict the future, e.g., to predict the next activity or how long a process will still require to complete. Recurrent neural networks (RNN) and its subclasses have been demonstrated to be well suited for creating prediction m…
Although software analytics has experienced rapid growth as a research area, it has not yet reached its full potential for wide industrial adoption. Most of the existing work in software analytics still relies heavily on costly manual feature engineering processes, and they mainly address the traditional classification…
Healthcare companies must submit pharmaceutical drugs or medical devices to regulatory bodies before marketing new technology. Regulatory bodies frequently require transparent and interpretable computational modelling to justify a new healthcare technology, but researchers may have several competing models for a biolog…
We investigate the Student-t process as an alternative to the Gaussian process as a nonparametric prior over functions. We derive closed form expressions for the marginal likelihood and predictive distribution of a Student-t process, by integrating away an inverse Wishart process prior over the covariance kernel of a G…
Proposes GPLFR for predicting high-dimensional outputs with few data.
problem Predicting high-dimensional outputs from limited data.
method GPLFR combines Gaussian process and linear-Gaussian decoding for high-dimensional prediction.
result GPLFR outperforms existing methods in predicting high-dimensional outputs.
Physics-informed model predicts beam stiffness and monitors structural health.
problem Predicting and monitoring the stiffness of Euler-Bernoulli beams.
method Physics-informed Gaussian process model using the Euler-Bernoulli beam equation.
result Model accurately predicts bending stiffness and detects structural damage.
Student-t processes have recently been proposed as an appealing alternative non-parameteric function prior. They feature enhanced flexibility and predictive variance. In this work the use of Student-t processes are explored for multi-objective Bayesian optimization. In particular, an analytical expression for the h…
We present a data-efficient reinforcement learning algorithm resistant to observation noise. Our method extends the highly data-efficient PILCO algorithm (Deisenroth & Rasmussen, 2011) into partially observed Markov decision processes (POMDPs) by considering the filtering process during policy evaluation. PILCO conduct…
Systematic review of ML explainability in process mining.
problem Understanding the black-box nature of ML models in process mining.
method Systematic literature review using PRISMA framework.
result Identification of key trends and challenges in interpretability.
MAGMA uses a common mean process to improve multi-step-ahead time series forecasting.
problem Improving multiple-step-ahead predictions for time series data.
method Proposes a novel multi-task Gaussian process framework with a common mean process for sharing information across tasks.
result Significantly improves predictive performances, even far from observations, and reduces computational complexity.
We have recently seen many successful applications of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) on electronic medical records (EMRs), which contain histories of patients' diagnoses, medications, and other various events, in order to predict the current and future states of patients. Despite the strong performance of RNNs, it is…
VisEvol uses evolutionary optimization to find optimal hyperparameters for machine learning models.
problem Finding the best hyperparameters for complex machine learning models is computationally intensive and challenging.
method VisEvol employs evolutionary optimization, storing performant models and improving others through crossover and mutation processes.
result VisEvol generates a voting ensemble of models with improved predictive performance.
A network of independently trained Gaussian processes (StackedGP) is introduced to obtain predictions of quantities of interest with quantified uncertainties. The main applications of the StackedGP framework are to integrate different datasets through model composition, enhance predictions of quantities of interest thr…
Paper analyzes GP derivatives for error propagation in geoscience.
problem Error estimation in Gaussian Process models for geoscience applications.
method Derivative of GP model for error propagation analysis.
result Analytical error propagation formula derived from GP derivatives.
New methods correct spectral distortions using known analyte concentrations.
problem Distorted spectral shapes from absorbing and scattering contributions.
method Modified penalized baseline correction methods that incorporate known analyte concentrations.
result Improved prediction performance on near infra-red data sets.
The paper predicts workload using process mining and neural networks.
problem Predicting workload in business processes.
method Process mining logs, combined with recurrent neural networks.
result Workload prediction achieved with an MAPE score of 19%.
This work provides safety guarantees for iterative GP predictions.
problem Analytical intractability of uncertainty tracking in iterative GP predictions.
method Deriving formal probability error bounds for iterative GP predictions.
result Formal bounds ensure that GP trajectories lie within specified regions with high probability.
The study optimizes supply chain management through a dice-based model to predict cleaner production.
problem Uncertainty in supply chain management and economic predictions.
method A 4-component SC module (environmental, demand, economic, social uncertainties) ranked by weight, using Analytical Hierarchical Process and optimization of a weighted cost function.
result Identifies conditions validating the sustainability of a business venture and optimizes market uncertainty.
This study analyzes and predicts airline delays using machine learning models.
problem Improving the accuracy of predicting airline flight delays.
method The study combines airline and weather datasets, using various machine learning models (Logistic Regression, Naive Bayes, K-NN, Decision Tree, Random Forest) to predict flight delays.
result The Random Forest model achieved an accuracy of 82% in predicting flight delays of 15 minutes or more.
Unified framework for DRO and DTA using Bayesian nonparametrics.
problem Combining DRO and DTA under ambiguity.
method Unified framework using DP and HDPs, with outlier robustness.
result Favorable performance in prediction accuracy and stability.
Combines additivity and active subspaces for high-dimensional Gaussian process modeling.
problem High-dimensional Gaussian process modeling challenges due to the curse of dimensionality.
method Combines additivity and active subspaces with a multi-fidelity strategy.
result Shows advantages through experiments on synthetic functions and datasets.
Predicting when and where events will occur in cities, like taxi pick-ups, crimes, and vehicle collisions, is a challenging and important problem with many applications in fields such as urban planning, transportation optimization and location-based marketing. Though many point processes have been proposed to model eve…
Automating the customer analytics process is crucial for companies that manage distinct customer bases. In such data-rich and dynamic environments, visualization plays a key role in understanding events of interest. These ideas have led to the popularity of analytics dashboards, yet academic research has paid scant att…
Visual system compares and evaluates machine learning models for clinical data predictions.
problem Challenges in comparing and evaluating different machine learning models for medical predictions.
method Developed a visual analytics system to compare and evaluate multiple models' prediction criteria and consistency.
result Demonstrated the effectiveness of the visual analytics system in assisting clinicians and researchers.
SPINEX improves time series forecasting with explainable neighbors.
problem Enhancing time series forecasting accuracy and interpretability.
method Leverages similarity and higher-order temporal interactions across multiple scales.
result SPINEX consistently ranks among top performers in forecasting precision.
Enhances medical code predictions for multi-morbidity patients using text classification.
problem Improving accuracy in predicting medical codes for patients with multiple illnesses.
method Used machine learning techniques, including multi-label medical text classification, to enhance predictions.
result High dimensional embeddings pre-trained on health data significantly improve multi-label classification performance.
We introduce a new method to explain Gaussian processes using Shapley values.
problem Explaining the uncertainty in Gaussian process models.
method Extending Shapley values to stochastic cooperative games for Gaussian processes.
result Our method generates explanations that are random variables and satisfy favorable axioms.
Proposes a new model for time-to-event prediction with uncertainty quantification.
problem Lack of uncertainty in time-to-event predictions using recurrent neural networks.
method Deep Kernel Accelerated Failure Time models combining RNN and sparse Gaussian Process.
result Model delivers better uncertainty estimates compared to related methods.
Method predicts spatial values with few data using GP framework.
problem Few data limit predictive performance in spatial regression.
method Trains neural network to infer task representation from small data, uses GP framework to predict spatial values.
result Proposed method achieves better predictive performance than meta-learning methods.
MetaStackVis aids in choosing better metamodels for stacking ensembles.
problem Difficulty in selecting optimal metamodels for stacking ensembles.
method Interactive visualization tool to explore and compare different metamodels.
result Alternative metamodels significantly improve stacking ensemble performance.
Convolutional neural networks predict the analytic rank of elliptic curves accurately.
problem Predicting the analytic rank of elliptic curves over Q.
method Applied one-dimensional convolutional neural networks to Frobenius traces.
result High accuracy predictions for analytic rank across various conductors.
This study analyzes counterfactual explanations for student success models.
problem Improving trust in machine learning models for student success prediction.
method Comparison of counterfactual generation methods (WhatIf, Multi-Objective, Nearest Instance) for student success prediction models.
result WhatIf Counterfactual Explanations are more effective for student success prediction models.
Big data analytics improves healthcare through early detection and quality life.
problem Limited access to healthcare data hinders evidence-based decision-making.
method Analysis of healthcare data using various tools and techniques.
result Big data analytics enhances healthcare quality and patient outcomes.